Gunnar Wiedenfels
Analyst · Jefferies
Now I will share the highlights of our second quarter financials. Our second quarter results were driven by continued global distribution growth combined with a strict focus on cost management. Our total company reported revenues and adjusted OIBDA were both up 2%, while our constant currency revenues and adjusted OIBDA were up 3% and 2%, respectively, as currency impacts on our revenues and profits continue to improve this year. Net income available to Discovery Communications of $374 million decreased versus the second quarter a year ago due to below the line items. On the positive side, we had improved operating performance and a lower effective tax rate of 20%. However, these positive effects were more than offset by a large non-cash $67 million swing in below the line FX expense due to revaluing our cash and other balance sheet items held in foreign currencies as well as higher equity earnings losses, primarily due to the timing of our solar investments. These losses depend on the number of installations going live in the quarter, and we are currently ahead of plan, which led to the losses totaling $42 million in the second quarter versus our expectation of $30 million while the full tax benefit will still come over the balance of the year. Looking forward to the full year. We are now quite confident to achieve a full year tax rate of a couple of hundred basis points below 20% as we continue to benefit from our international asset base as well as our solar investments. The full year book loss from solar is expected to total approximately $200 million with the current expectation that the remaining impact will be split evenly between the third and fourth quarters. Note that net-net, we still anticipate that our solar investments will have a positive impact on the full year net income as the benefits from our tax credits as well as the tax shield on the book losses will more than outweigh around $200 million of book losses. Now let us turn to EPS. Earnings per diluted share for the second quarter was $0.64, and adjusted earnings per diluted share, which excludes the impact of acquisition related non-cash amortization of intangible assets, was $0.68. Keeping in mind the large below the line FX swings mentioned earlier, excluding currency impacts, adjusted EPS was up 9% for the quarter. Second quarter free cash flow was $157 million. The decline versus prior year period was almost completely driven by the timing of working capital. Our full year outlook for free cash flow, excluding FX, has not changed. Turning to the operating units. Let me start with our US Networks. Our US Networks total revenues were up 2%, led by 4% distribution growth and flat reported advertising growth. And adjusted AOIBDA was up 4% given lower SG&A and cost of revenue. Our flat advertising growth or up 1% on an underlying basis, excluding the impact of December's Group Nine transaction and the deconsolidation of Seeker and SourceFed, was primarily due to strong pricing and improved monetization of our GO platform, which again added a point of growth in the quarter, partially offset by lower delivery due to continued Universe declines and the timing of Shark Week, which aired partially in the second and partially in the third quarter last year, but aired 100% in the third quarter this year. As we look ahead to the third quarter of 2017, we currently expect reported US ad growth to accelerate versus the flat growth this quarter and be up low single digits. In more detail, as just mentioned, we will benefit from the timing of Shark Week as well as easier comps versus the Olympics last year. And otherwise, we are seeing similar trends in the second quarter. We expect to continue to maximize yield on our linear networks as pricing remains healthy, which will likely be offset by overall [indiscernible] declines. Additionally included in our outlook is, again, 1 point of growth from our GO platform, which will again be offset by 100 basis points impact from the Group Nine transaction. Now let us look at affiliate revenues. Our second quarter domestic distribution revenues were up 4% with growth drivers similar to the first quarter, higher contracted affiliate rates, partially offset by a decline in subscribers. To a lesser extent, growth was also driven by contributions from other distribution revenues, i.e., content deliveries under licensing agreements. Total portfolio subs in the second quarter declined by just over 4% year-over-year, an acceleration versus the first quarter when subs declined just over 3%. As we stated on our year end call, we still expect 2017 full year distribution revenue growth to be in the mid-single-digit range, assuming subscriber trends remain relatively consistent. We will continue to benefit from higher pricing in our existing affiliate deals and we will also continue to aggressively pursue additional ways to increase our digital distribution revenue and monetize our content across all platforms. With existing and new distribution partners as the media landscape continues to change. Turning to the cost side. Operating expenses in the quarter were down 2%, leading to adjusted OIBDA growth of 4% with margins expanding by 200 basis points to 64%. As we look ahead to the rest of the year, we will continue to focus on managing and limiting US cost growth with year-over-year total cost growth still expected to peak in the low single digits range in the third quarter, partially due to Shark Week and our scripted drama, Manhunt: Unabomber. I will now turn to our international operations. Reported revenues were up 3% and adjusted OIBDA was down 4%, while excluding currency, revenues increased 4%, and adjusted OIBDA was down 5%. For comparability purposes, my following international comments will refer to our organic results only, so will exclude the impact of currency. The 4% second quarter revenue growth was comprised of 7% distribution growth and 1% advertising growth. Our 7% distribution growth was driven by higher affiliate rates throughout Europe, where we have already been successful in monetizing our expanded content portfolio that now includes sports to secure higher contracted pricing increases and higher rates throughout Latin America, partially offset by a onetime favorable contractual adjustment in Europe in the second quarter of last year. Looking forward, as David mentioned, we are revising our full year distribution outlook given our strategic pivot on Bundesliga in Germany, and we now expect growth of approximately 10% for the full year. Let me explain this decision in more detail. Clearly, Bundesliga will not be profitable this year based on the player alone, but as we have stated before, we are optimizing the total value of our sports IP portfolio over the long contract terms. We always want to balance exploitation across linear, digital and sublicensing and, given the early successes we have seen pivoting to the season pass model and leveraging premium rights for the player as well as the high value of these rights, we believe that at this point, this is the best way to maximize monetization. I will reiterate what David said; we will now expect real acceleration of the player and expect to elevate the brand to a new level in the key German market. We're convinced we will be able to build real asset value here, which is clearly a top priority at the expense of short-term revenue growth. As you have seen over the past quarters, we have been successful in limiting our cost growth to create profit headroom that allows us to make such value-oriented exploitative decisions without having to take a hit on AOIBDA. Turning to advertising. Our 1% growth was mostly driven by growth throughout most of Europe, excluding the Nordics, due to improved ratings and volume, offset by declines in the Nordics due to put and share challenges and declines in our smallest region, Asia-Pac. As we look ahead to the third quarter, we expect ad sales to be up low to mid-single digits, helped by easier year-over-year comps with the Olympics and the European Football Championships. We expect to see growth in most Europe and Latin America, again offset by weaknesses in our smallest region, Asia-Pac. Turning to the cost side. Operating expenses internationally grew 8%, primarily due to higher sports content and production costs. Given the tough AOIBDA comp as this quarter saw lower revenue growth from distribution and advertising in the quarter versus higher sports cost this year, AOIBDA growth was down 5%. Looking ahead, we expect total cost growth to peak next quarter at high single to low double digits and then come down in the fourth quarter. As indicated on our last call, we also want to provide an initial framework on how to think about the financial impact of the Olympics for 2018 and beyond. Let me start with some thoughts on the value of these games, please. Summer Games generally have more hours, are more popular and bring in higher revenues than Winter Games. Location matters as well, given the impact of time zones on value in individual markets. As you know, the first three games are in Asia with our current expectation being that the 2024 Games will be in Paris. On this basis, our current working hypothesis, which represents our best expectation at this time, is that we will recognize 10% of the total $1.4 billion rights cost in the first quarter of 2018 with 30% then recognized in 2020, 15% in 2022 and 45% in 2024. Other financial implications for next year's Olympics are: we expect an additional $100 million of production and other costs to also be recognized in the first quarter, and we do not expect the Olympics to have a material impact on our full year profit. As we have discussed before, the majority of revenues will come from sublicensing, which will be recognized in the other international revenue line. And additional revenues from ad sales, digital, as well as some attribution of affiliate revenues in Europe due to the halo effect of having these rights. Now taking a look at our financial overall picture. In the second quarter, we spent a total of $301 million repurchasing our shares after investing $15 million gross in solar. We have now spent over $8.5 billion buying back shares since we began our buyback program in 2010. And we have reduced our outstanding share count by over 38%. During our first quarter call, we talked about a review of our capital structure and allocation approach. Having completed this review, I am happy to largely reiterate our financial policies. Looking forward, as stated, we remain absolutely committed to our investment-grade rating with the new goal of ultimately having our gross leverage between three and 3.5 times. Once we are comfortably in that range, our capital allocation philosophy will remain the same. First, investing in the company and strategic accretive M&A with remaining capital allocated towards buying back stock. Finally, regarding our full year guidance, as mentioned, we are reiterating our expectation that full year 2017 constant currency free cash flow growth will be at least low double digits. I am also pleased to reiterate that constant currency adjusted EPS growth will be at least low to mid-teens. While our net international affiliate outlook is lower, on the positive side, we continue to manage our constant currency total company cost of revenues to be in the high single-digit range versus the previous guidance of high single to low double-digit range. Our budgets had always left us with headroom and, following our success in managing these costs in the first half of the year, we are now comfortable going to the low end of that range. We still expect total company constant currency SG&A growth to be flat to up low single digits. Finally, these metrics exclude any impact from the Scripps deal. Clearly, we do expect additional interest and transaction costs, and we will update you on these items later in the year. I also want to update you on the expected year-over-year foreign exchange impact on our full year reported results, which has again improved versus our prior guidance, given the recent weakening of the dollar as well as our hedging program. Assuming rates stay constant for the rest of the year; the year-over-year FX impact on revenues is now expected to be around flat with a slightly negative impact on advertising revenues and a slightly positive impact on affiliate revenues, canceling each other out. On AOIBDA, currency remains a slight tailwind and is still expected to have a positive impact of $10 million to $20 million. Finally, currency is now expected to have a negative $0.13 to $0.16 impact on adjusted EPS, primarily due to last year's below the line FX gains. In closing, let me come back to the Scripps transaction. This is a very exciting time for us, and we're extremely optimistic about the opportunities this accretive combination creates for our company, for our viewers and for our shareholders. We will become a global content leader in a strong position to drive sustainable growth. The combined company will innovate and leverage our effective brands and expertise across existing and new platforms around the world to drive growth, innovation and long-term value creation for shareholders. Thank you again for your time this morning. And now David, Ken, Bruce and I will be happy to answer your questions. Please note we would like to keep the questions on the transaction and Discovery's second quarter results.