Ray Betler
Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead
Thank you, Tim. Good morning, everyone. Although, we remain confident in our future growth opportunities, our second quarter results and updated full year expectations are lower than we anticipated. As we saw these short-term challenges, we are continuing to cut cost to manage aggressively through this tough period. At the same time, we’re seeing many positive developments including the record in growing backlog, significant progress in the Faiveley integration and ongoing investment and our balanced growth strategies around the world. So let’s cover all these topics in more detail. Second quarter and the full year, the main reason for our shortfall in the second quarter and our reduction in full year guidance is that we’ve seen about $250 million of revenues, roughly 5% of our full year total wholesale due mainly to revised timing of sales and projects already in the backlog and to the market conditions, which we’ve discussed previously rebounding slower than we anticipated. These factors are more than offsetting the expected ramp up of synergies from the Faiveley integration during the year. Some of the revenues still to be occurred in the second quarter, including projects for signal design and construction work, locomotive overhauls, which both did not materialize so we removed them from our 2017 forecast. Also, we are not yet seeing the expected recovery in the freight after market spending, and the OEM freight markets remain sluggish. As a result, we revised our 2017 guidance as follows. Compared to the first two quarters of the year, we expect some modest improvement in our third quarter results due to seasonality with a strong fourth quarter and an adjusted operating margin target in the fourth quarter of about 15%. With more of our revenues coming from Europe, the seasonality in the third quarter will be more of a factor than it’s been in the past. For the year, we now expect revenues of about $3.85 billion with earnings per diluted share of between $3.55 and $3.70, excluding restructuring and transaction charges and non-control interest related to the Faiveley acquisition. Our guidance is based on revised timing of sales and projects already in the backlog. Market conditions rebalance slower than expected, and the expected ramp up of synergies from the Faiveley integration. Clearly, we are still operating in a challenging environment, which means we have to stay focused on controlling what we can. That means being disciplined when it comes to pass taking actions to right size our business, property mobilizing the new transit projects and ensuring a smooth and effective integration process with Faiveley, so we can capture the synergies and growth that we expect. Positive developments. As I stated at the outset, we remain confident in our future growth opportunities even as we manage through these short term challenges. During the quarter, we saw several positive developments. Our backlog increased 10% compared to the first quarter backlog and our book to bill was 1.4, which is a positive indicator for future organic growth. Our cost cutting actions are having a positive effect as our operating margin adjusted for restructuring and transaction expenses was about the same as the first quarter, despite a mix shift toward lower margin transit revenues. During the quarter, we continue to invest in our growth strategies, especially new product development. I will talk about our investment in that area later in the call, and also acquisitions. We acquired Thermal Transfer, a manufacturer of heat exchangers for industrial markets with annual sales of about $25 million and Semvac, a European based manufacturer of sanitation systems for transit vehicles and locomotives with annual sales of about $15 million. We have other acquisitions in the pipeline and expect to make announcements in the near term. We continue to make significant progress on the Faiveley integration. We are also beginning to develop our first strategic plan as an integrated company now with the benefit of Faiveley's worldwide presence. We expect to emerge with a growth plan that meets our long-term financial goals to average double-digit growth in revenues and earnings through the business cycle. And we expect to be a stronger, more global, more balanced and less cyclical company at the end of this five year plan. Moving to the transit market. With the acquisition of Faiveley, our transit business has transformed into a true global business where we’re true global player. Many markets are larger and more stable globally than our traditional North American market. Overtime, that should mean more visibility and stability, better growth markets, both organic and through acquisitions and improve margins as we benefit from increased scale and market share. Although, we have seen some existing projects delayed until later this year and next year, we booked a record amount of new orders during the quarter, more than $350 million in Europe and Australia loan and have a record multiyear backlog. Our transit book to bill in this quarter alone is 1.6, which bodes well for organic growth next year. During the quarter, we won orders in Germany, France, Australia, the U.S, China and India, demonstrating our global reach and our diversification. Here is some specific. We will provide brake stores, air conditioning and pantographs for new commuter rail cars being built in for us Sydney, Australia by Rotem, where revenues were more than $80 million. For the Paris metro cars being built by Olson and Bombardier, we will provide those same components for 71 trains for about $100 million of revenue. And customer has the option to order another 180 trains, which will make it our largest order ever. Remember that these types of OEM orders typically lead to long-term aftermarket opportunities, which provide revenue and good profitability for three to four decades. On the Faiveley integration, Faiveley represents the most strategic acquisition we have made to-date. And we’re very excited by the growth opportunities and synergies we are driving. We estimate synergies of about $15 million to $20 million in 2017. And we expect long-term annual synergies of at least $50 million to be achieved by year-three through supply chain efficiencies, operational excellence and cost savings, and by leveraging our engineering administrative capabilities. We continue to track more than 100 synergy projects in every operational and functional area. We’re achieving success in sourcing, new product development optimization, tax planning and then reducing redundant activities and resources. For example, we’ve completed a comprehensive review of our total product portfolio and have eliminated all overlaps. Longer-term synergies are focused on facility consolidation, global and market expansion and new product development. The acquisition has also enabled us to strengthen our management team and to consolidate our organizational structure. During this past quarter, we named Stephane Rambaud-Measson as our COO, and have also appointed in as a Director under Wabtec Report. We streamlined our organization to go from 11 operating units to seven. So once again, in just a few months into integration process our synergy plan is progressing and we expect it will provide increased savings as we go through the year. This progression is built into our guidance. In the freight market, we have some short-term challenges that continue to face us, but the freight backlog has increased three quarters in a row and demand appears to be stable. In North America, freight traffic is rebounding after being down for two consecutive years. Through mid-July, total traffic is up almost 6% despite this improvement though, the numbers of freight cars in storage increased 5% during the quarter. That’s the first time that’s happened this year. As we saw this in rail roads’ own cost cutting efforts, we have not seen yet and expected pick-up in the aftermarket business that we anticipated. And now we're assuming that we will not see that pick-up throughout the second half of the year. U.S. OEM markets for cars and locomotive also remain sluggish, and may be down again next year, and that’s true on an international market also. Trade conditions are mixed internationally. In Australia, the OEM market is weak but we're seeing some after market growth. In Brazil, the overall economy remains soft. The government has delayed renewal of some railway concessions, both of which have curtailed spending. In India, some of the growth in after market spending has occurred with new locomotive deliveries expected to pick up next year. Russia, overall, the economy continues to be slow and but in South Africa recession has lead real growth to in source much of its maintenance spending. Due to these international market conditions and NAFTA conditions, our fright related business are balancing the need to reduce cost in the short-term while maintaining an appropriate amount of investment for future growth. If I move to cash allocation, our priorities for cash remain the same; to fund internal growth programs, including product development and CapEx; to fund acquisitions where we have an ample supply of opportunities to deploy capital in this area; number three, to return money to shareholders through a combination of dividends and stock buybacks under our current share repurchase authorization. We may also look to reduce that during the year. As always, we are focused on increasing free cash flow by managing cost, driving down working capital and controlling capital expenditures. Our growth strategies remain the same. We focus on new products and technologies on global and international market expansion, on after market opportunities and on acquisitions. We have a lot of activities in each of these areas, but on this call, I would like to highlight our long-term vision specifically in the train control and signaling area. Train control and signaling remains an important part of our long term growth opportunities; although, it's part of the reason why our freight revenues are down. In the second quarter, revenues from train control and signaling were $67 million compared to $86 million in the year ago quarter. For the year, we expect them to be down about 4%, mainly due to the delay of the signal design and construction contract that I mentioned earlier. As PTC equipment purchases have slowed down in recent years, we have offset some of that decline with new contracts that demonstrate the breadth of our capabilities. For example, in the second quarter, we signed contracts worth about $60 million for projects with Belt Railway in Chicago and with South Florida regional transportation authority where we are providing back office servers, way side communications and signals, a dispatch system, construction, training and system integration. And now we have a number of maintenance and service agreements related to train control and PTC worth about $40 million annually with more in negotiations. So long term, we expect positive train control and signaling will be a growth business for Wabtech based on our multiyear maintenance and service agreements, including software and product enhancements, international project opportunities and growth and signaling through organic investment and acquisition. Our new product roadmap includes considerable activity in this area, including Wabtech1, which is a means of collecting and analyzing data. As you know, there's a lot of industry talk these days about increasing the asset efficiency and utilization, about digitalization through data analytics. Wabtech is involved in all these areas and in all those discussions. We continue to invest not only in data analytics but we also are investing in a failsafe capability for our office systems. So with product that’s focused on safety critical office systems, data analytics and our PTC capability as building blocks that allows us to position ourselves to ultimately be able to support autonomous railway capability in the future. So our product roadmap is not to stop at the positive train control level but to go beyond that to drive all those trains, and that's a product capability that will allow for increased safety and increased throughput and operational efficiency for the railroads. With that, I'd like to turn this over to Pat for more comments on the financials.