Matt Ellis
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. You may go ahead
Thank you, Hans, and good morning, everyone. As Hans discussed, we are in an unprecedented time. As a result of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and the various measures taken to address the emergency, we experienced starkly different trends during the first two and half months of the first quarter than we did during the last few weeks. We understand that most of you are more interested in what we are currently seeing in the business, so I'll go through the quarterly results at a high level and spend more time addressing the most recent trends and how they impact our expectations for the second quarter and the full year. We will begin with a review of our consolidated operating and financial results. In the first quarter, consolidated operating revenue was $31.6 billion, down 1.6%. Growth in wireless service revenue in both the Consumer and Business segments was offset by sharp reductions in equipment revenue. Consolidated wireless equipment revenue was down over 16% in the first quarter driven by the Consumer segment, primarily as a result of the limited in-store customer engagement in March, due to COVID. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.9 billion, down slightly from last year, including the impact from COVID. Low wireless volumes in Consumer Group drove benefits to margins through decreased promotional spend lower equipment revenue and improved churn. These benefits were more than offset by higher bad debt expense, lower advertising revenues from Verizon Media Group in March and customer actions that resulted in a decrease in wireless fees and non-recurring usage charges. Our incremental bad debt reserve of $228 million was the largest component of these items. The headwinds from the deferral of commission expense that Brady highlighted earlier reduced EBITDA by $172 million, which is an impact of approximately 55 basis points to EBITDA margin in the quarter. We have continued to focus on our Business Excellence program with the goal to realize $10 billion of cumulative cash savings by the end of 2021, and have saved $6.3 billion through the end of the first quarter. The activities of this program over the past two years have put us in a position to be more agile and adaptive in uncertain times like these. Adjusted EPS for the first quarter was $1.26, up 5.0% from $1.20 a year ago. This included an estimated net impact from COVID of approximately $0.04, primarily driven by an increase of our bad debt reserve. Let's now turn to our segment results starting with Consumer Group on slide 10. Our Consumer team continues to deliver best-in-class services to our customers, while keeping them connected in their personal and work communities. We are extremely proud of the team's performance particularly our frontline workers' efforts to meet our customers' needs during this very difficult period. Our Consumer segment started the year with typical low seasonal volumes during the first quarter. In March, customer transaction activity slowed significantly, due to shelter-in-place policies, travel restrictions and other measures taken to promote social distancing. Later in the call, I will go into a deeper discussion on the exit rate trends as we serve our customers in this new environment. First quarter phone gross adds were down nearly 13% year-over-year and postpaid phone net losses were just over 300,000 for the quarter. Phone churn performance was solid throughout the quarter at 0.77%, which was down four basis points from a year ago. Consistent with first quarter seasonal volume activity and the impact of COVID our retail postpaid upgrade rate remained low during the quarter and is one of the key contributing factors to the decline in wireless equipment revenue. We expect this trend to continue for as long as social distancing policies and other safety measures to protect our employees and customers continue to limit store traffic. Fios Internet net additions of 59,000 were up sequentially and year-over-year, as work from home in-home schooling and other related measures increased the utility and demand for our high-quality broadband offerings. Fios video net losses accelerated for the quarter, and we expect cord cutting trends to continue. In order to ensure the safety of our customers and employees, while providing critical network services, we have modified our approach over the past few weeks and are not currently entering customer locations except for critical functions. Now, let's move to slide 11 to discuss the Consumer financial performance. Our Consumer segment entered 2020 with strong momentum, as we added a significant number of wireless connections towards the end of 2019, which favorably impacted the first quarter. For our Fios consumer products, we launched new Mix & Match pricing early in the quarter, providing price transparency and choice in our broadband and video offerings. We also introduced Yahoo Mobile to expand our wireless offerings across our digital media customer base. We continue to generate strong service revenue and other revenue growth. But this was more than offset by a significant decrease in wireless equipment revenue due to low volume activity. Consumer segment total revenue was down 1.7% year-over-year. The growth in unlimited plans increase in connections per account and high demand for our broadband services in the quarter drove strong profitability for the segment, offset by an increase in bad debt expense as a result of COVID impacts. Consumer EBITDA margin of 46.4% was up 60 basis points over the prior year and included approximately 80 basis points of headwind from the deferral of commission expense. Lower equipment revenue had a limited impact on our overall EBITDA performance. Now let's move to slide 12 to review the Business Group results. During a time when connectivity is providing critical support to those impacted by this crisis, our Business team is at the forefront to serve our enterprise, small and medium business, public sector and wholesale customers. We remain an outstanding partner for first responders, healthcare providers and other frontline workers. And as Hans mentioned, we are extremely proud of our team's work to deliver essential services to our customers so they can serve others. Business trends were strong throughout the quarter, and we saw heightened demand for our products and services in March. Businesses need our services now more than ever as we saw strong demand for mobility, Jetpacks, VPN services and high-speed circuit capacity in the first quarter. As you look at the detail on the slide for wireless products, you can see phone gross adds were up 25% from the prior year driven by strength in global enterprise and public sector with offsetting pressure in small and medium business. This contributed to postpaid phone net adds of 239,000 and total postpaid net adds of 475,000. Business segment phone churn of 1.02% in the quarter was flat year-over-year driven by strength in public sector with offsetting pressure in small and medium business. Let's now move to slide 13 to review the business financial performance. Operating revenues for the Business segment in the first quarter were down approximately 0.5% from the prior year. Wireless revenues within enterprise SMB and public sector were up year-over-year driven by strong wireless service revenue growth of 6.9%. This was offset by legacy wireline and wholesale revenue declines. We are encouraged by the business EBITDA performance in the first quarter, which was driven by tight controls around spending and strong wireless performance as we generated solid profitability even with higher than usual volumes and the ongoing transformation investments in the segment for future growth. Now let's move on to slide 14 to discuss Verizon Media Group. During the first quarter, Verizon Media Group's performance was impacted by COVID similar to others in the digital advertising and search business. Total revenue is $1.7 billion, down 4% compared to last year, driven almost entirely by COVID impacts. Prior to COVID, our year-over-year revenue trends were continuing the steady improvement seen in 2019. We are seeing increased levels of customer engagement across our platforms. But advertising rates and search revenue have declined in the current environment. Verizon Media launched a coronavirus hub on Yahoo! News and Yahoo! Finance and COVID-19's newsletter through Yahoo Mail, both of which are driving significant customer engagement as we aim to keep users informed on what is happening in their area and around the globe with trusted content. Let's now move to slide 15 for a quick look at the overall wireless performance. Slide 15 shows the key metrics and financial data of the combined wireless products and services from the Consumer and Business segment for the first quarter. Total wireless service revenue grew 1.9% over the prior year. Additional details are provided in the financial and operating information and our supplemental earnings release's schedules on our website. Now let's review our cash flow and balance sheet for the quarter on slide 16. Cash flow from operating activities was $8.8 billion, an increase of $1.7 billion from the prior year. This year-over-year growth was partially driven by Voluntary Separation Program payments and the voluntary pension contributions in the first quarter of 2019 that did not repeat this year as well as working capital improvements from our operations this quarter. Capital spending for the first quarter totaled $5.3 billion, which is up approximately $1 billion year-over-year. We expect the timing of capital spending to be more front-end loaded than it was last year. Our capital expenditures continue to support capacity for unprecedented traffic growth across our networks while we continue to deploy more fiber and add additional cell sites to support our 5G rollout. As we mentioned earlier in March, we increased our full year 2020 CapEx guidance to $17.5 billion to $18.5 billion in order to facilitate Verizon's network activity and help support the economy during this period of disruption. Free cash flow for the quarter was $3.6 billion, which was up 26.2% year-over-year and continues to fund our dividend. Our balance sheet continues to be strong with very low unsecured bond maturities through the end of 2021. Our net unsecured debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 2.1 times, up slightly from year-end. Let's move on to slide 17 to take a deeper look at the trends we have seen in the last half of March and into early April. During the month of March as COVID safety measures were implemented with new federal and state recommendations for social distancing, our retail consumer and small business activity diminished significantly. By the middle of March, we saw a dramatic shift in customer behavior as stores closed and other business activity halted across the country. At the same time, we experienced increased demand from our public sector and some large enterprise customers to support frontline crisis responders, new work from home and home schooling arrangements and other demands for critical connectivity services. This slide provides selected metrics from March 15 through April 15 and offers a more in-depth view of the early impacts of the current COVID environment. At this point it is unclear how long these trends will continue. In our Consumer Group we closed nearly 70% of our company-operated retail stores and reduced in-store services throughout the day for social distancing safety measures. As you can see on this slide we experienced a significant drop in customer activity and device volumes during this period. Consumer wireless gross adds declined nearly 50% from the same period in the prior year and upgrades declined over 40%. As expected lower customer switching across the entire industry has led to a significant improvement in phone churn. As part of the industry's effort to help customers we signed the FCC's Keep Americans Connected Pledge in March and will waive any late fees and keep customers connected in the event of nonpayment due to the pandemic for the period of the pledge. We have added 15 gigabits of data to metered consumers and small business plans and also to hotspot usage for unlimited plans. This additional data along with increased in-home WiFi usage has resulted in lower data overage revenue in the quarter. In addition to these customer-focused actions and impacts consumer behavior has changed dramatically over this short time period such as reduced international roaming revenue. In order to keep our employees and customers safe through social distancing, we are generally not performing installations for consumer Fios when work inside the home would be required. Gross adds are currently limited to those that can be performed directly by the customer or with the technician working outside the home. In our Business group, we have broken out the trends for our small and medium business customer group showing the drop-off that we have seen in gross adds and upgrades as a major portion of small businesses have seen a steep reduction in activities and in many cases a full shutdown. In contrast to Consumer we are not seeing the same improvement in churn at this time. For public sector and some global enterprise customers, we have seen an increased demand for remote connectivity solutions as a greater number of people are working and schooling from home. Wireless gross adds for these customers were up 163% over the similar period in the prior year, mostly driven by demand for phones, Jetpacks and other connected devices. Our network superiority and long-standing relationship with enterprises first responders and other workers in the fronts has given us the ability to support their connectivity needs across the country when they need Verizon most. In addition to the increase in gross adds activity, we have seen an improvement in retention for our enterprise and public sector customers with phone churn improving by 35 basis points during this period. We are working with all of our customers during this time to ensure they stay connected even if they're experiencing financial hardship as a result of COVID. We believe that our enterprise, public sector and wholesale customers will be relatively less impacted than our SMB customers initially, but we may see increased long-term risk from the crisis. Wireless service revenues in our Business Group are being impacted by reductions in overage fees, a reduction in international roaming and an increase in suspension of lines. Across Consumer and Business, we believe total wireless service revenue growth to be 3 to 5 percentage points lower than originally expected in the second quarter as a result of the reduction in fees and usage-based revenues. Additionally, bad debt expense increased as a result of our changing expectations around customer payments during this time. In the first quarter, we increased our bad debt reserve by $228 million based on the expected number of customers who will avail themselves of payment relief under the Keep Americans Connected Pledge. We will continue to monitor Consumer and Business payment behavior and we'll work with our customers to help them stay connected despite difficult circumstances. As a result it is possible that additional bad debt reserves may be required in the second quarter. In Verizon Media, we are experiencing a decline in advertising and search revenue as advertisers pause, hold back or cancel campaigns during this time and users are searching for fewer commercial terms providing us with less opportunity for monetization. As a result, advertising revenues declined by nearly 10% in the month of March with COVID mostly impact in the second half of the month and that rate of decline has increased in April. A number of industry forecasts expect a 20% to 30% decline in digital media revenues in 2Q and Verizon Media's results are likely to be similar to those experienced in the broader industry. Now let's go to Slide 18 to discuss our guidance and outlook for 2020. Obviously, the environment we find ourselves in today is vastly different than when we originally gave guidance just a few months ago. Given the unprecedented magnitude of the conditions we have all experienced, we are updating our financial guidance for the full year. We remain confident in our strategy our business model and our ability to generate sustainable long-term earnings growth. Our consolidated revenue guidance of low to mid-single-digit percent growth that we announced in January included the expectation that 2020 equipment revenues would not create similar year-over-year headwinds as it has in the past few years. However, device activations have been low since mid-March and we expect that to continue throughout the second quarter with uncertainty around customer behavior for the remainder of the year. The wide range of potential outcomes around equipment revenue led us to determine that it is prudent to withdraw our consolidated revenue guidance at this time. For adjusted EPS, we are revising our original guidance of 2% to 4% growth and are now guiding to a range of negative 2% to positive 2% change from the prior year. Our new estimated range is based on a scenario that assumes significant headwinds prevail throughout the second quarter. We have limited visibility into the second half of the year, which will depend on various potential operating environments. We will continue to assess the impact of COVID on our business, including our bad debt reserve and expect to provide an update on our next earnings call based on how things develop between now and then. Other income statement items for which we provided guidance including depreciation and amortization, interest expense and the adjusted effective tax rate remain intact as originally guided. As we mentioned earlier, we have maintained our CapEx guidance for the full year that we announced in March. Our supply chain remains strong and we have not seen a material slowdown in the sourcing of necessary equipment from our network and device partners. We are optimistic that the measures government agencies have taken will provide support to citizens, businesses and the frontline responders that have been impacted by this crisis. We remain keenly focused on doing our part to provide best-in-class network performance and customer experience to all of our customers, which will continue to drive long-term operational and financial success, while weathering short-term disruptions. Despite the extreme nature of what the world is experiencing, we believe that Verizon is well suited to remain resilient through this situation. Let's take a look at slide 19 to discuss our strong balance sheet and liquidity position. Over the past few years, we have strengthened our balance sheet and the results of those actions have put us in a good position to manage through the impacts of the COVID pandemic. We ended the first quarter with $7 billion of cash on hand. Carrying a higher cash balance during a market crisis is part of our liquidity planning strategy and we executed on that strategy with a $3.5 billion bond offering completed in March. In addition, we started and ended the first quarter with no commercial paper outstanding, but have accessed this market in the second quarter to further enhance our liquidity. During the first quarter and before the market disruption we also completed one of our largest device payment securitizations of $1.6 billion. Having a cash cushion is prudent right now for many reasons, including our expectation that certain customers may have difficulty making timely payments as a result of the crisis. We are closely monitoring these trends, with regard to their impact on our ABS programs. In the second quarter, we had some nonrecurring cash outflows including $2.7 billion of maturities and $1.3 billion of spectrum licenses from Auction 103. Scheduled unsecured bond maturities for the rest of 2020 are zero as a result of our continued liability management strategy that keep near-term maturities low. Additionally, at the end of 2019, given our funded status and prior discretionary contributions, we expect no mandatory contributions to our pension plan until 2026 subject to market conditions. Our pension funded status has been further protected in recent years as we have increased the hedge ratio of our liability to about 50%. This resulted in the funded status of our pension plan only declining from 92% at year-end to 87% at the end of first quarter. Our standby credit facility with our bank group of $9.5 billion provides further assurance of our liquidity. Our balance sheet is strong and our liquidity position has been further strengthened, as we navigate this difficult period for our customers and the markets. We have demonstrated the ability to access the bond and commercial paper markets in recent weeks. Our strong financial position gives us confidence to continue to invest, while also supporting all of our stakeholders. I'll turn it back over to Hans to provide a look at our 2020 priorities and then we'll get to your questions.