Francis Shammo
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. At our investor meeting in late January, we talked about our 2011 priorities, our strong focus on business plan execution and translating revenue opportunities into profitable growth and shareowner value. In looking at our first quarter results, I'd say we are off to a very strong start. Our Wireless business performed extremely well, further solidifying our leadership position in the industry. Our 4G LTE network deployment is going very well, and our network performance has exceeded even our own very high expectations. In one independent test after another, our network's ability to deliver video and data, with exceptional speed and performance, has been unmatched. Possibly even more impressive is the speed with which products and services are being developed for LTE. Through our LTE rollout, we have positioned ourselves on the leading edge of a whole new phase of Wireless market development. Our first quarter Wireless results once again demonstrate our ability to effectively manage growth and sustain profitability. We had a very strong quarter of device sales, with 906,000 retail postpaid customer net additions. In a period of less than eight weeks, we activated 2.2 million iPhones and in two weeks, we activated more than 260,000 of our first 4G LTE smartphone, the HTC ThunderBolt, at the premium price of $249.99. In addition, we added about 250,000 4G Internet devices to our retail postpaid base in the quarter, and quickly sold out iPad 2 tablets in early March. So we built good momentum throughout the quarter. Our Wireless service EBITDA margin of 43.7% is a solid result, once again demonstrates our ability to effectively manage the customer acquisition and retention costs associated with gaining market share and increasing smartphone penetration, while sustaining our industry-leading profitable growth profile going forward. In Wireline, our first quarter results showed continued improvement on the top line, with sequential EBITDA margin expansion for the fourth consecutive quarter. Our improved year-over-year performance was driven by continued strength in FiOS and lower line loss rates, resulting in consumer revenue growth of 1.9%, as well as accelerated growth of 12.8% in Enterprise Strategic Services revenue. In terms of cost management, while the first quarter had some seasonal pressures, we did realize the cost benefits of our 16,000 workforce reductions from last year. On the strategic front, we closed the Terremark acquisition on April 11, and significantly improved our competitive position in the rapidly evolving managed hosting and cloud services space. With these highlights as a backdrop, let's begin a more detailed review of the quarter on Slide 4, starting with a look at consolidated results. Consolidated revenue growth in the first quarter accelerated to 5.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.3% growth in the fourth quarter. Total revenue growth in Wireless increased to 10.2%. And while much of this growth was driven by equipment sales in this quarter, we do expect to see future benefit from these sales in subsequent quarters in terms of higher recurring revenue streams. So top line growth is what we expected, and we were on track to meet our full-year revenue guidance of between 4% and 8% annual growth. Our consolidated EBITDA for the first quarter totaled $8.5 billion, up 3.8% year-over-year. The 31.4% EBITDA margin is down about 50 basis points from a year ago, primarily the result of the higher acquisition and retention costs in Wireless. Again, our expectation is for solid margin performance throughout the year, with some fluctuation quarters featuring highly successful new device launches. In terms of earnings, we reported $0.51 for the quarter without any non-operational or special items to point out. This compares with $0.48 in the first quarter a year ago, after adjustments for the impact of divested operations and non-operational charges in that period. With our 4G deployment well underway, our capitalized interest will be significantly lower this year. As a result, Wireless interest expense will reflect about $150 million for each quarter this year. In terms of income taxes, the effective income tax rate attributable to Verizon for the first quarter was 30%. For the full year 2011, we are anticipating an effective tax rate to be in a range consistent with the past three quarters, post the Frontier and Alltel divestitures. Both of these items were fully contemplated in the overall earnings guidance we provided in January. With first quarter growth of 6.3%, we are on track to meet our stated objective of 5% to 8% growth off an adjusted 2010 base of $2.08 per share. Let's turn to cash flow and capital spending on the next slide. In addition to the higher capital spending this quarter, cash flows from operations were impacted by higher acquisition and retention costs in Wireless due to the iPhone in the first quarter funding of our full-year pension obligation, which was $392 million. In addition, the first half of last year included cash flows from the divested properties. In terms of free cash flow, we generated $672 million in the first quarter. And although this is lower than our recent trend, our cash flow outlook for the year remains very strong. Many of the cash flows were timing, and this quarter did not impact our cash management planning for the year. I would also say that there is no change in our thinking with regard to the timing of a Verizon Wireless dividend to its parent companies, which we believe will begin in 2012. In the first quarter, total CapEx was $4.4 billion, of which $2.7 billion was Wireless. While we expect overall capital spending in 2011 to be essentially flat compared to 2010, we have started the year more aggressively in Wireless, spending a bit more early in the year on 4G LTE, consistent with our overall deployment plans, and continuing to add growth capacity to our 3G network. Looking forward, we will continue to expand our 4G LTE footprint, and invest in necessary capital in 3G to stay ahead of the data demand curve. Wireline capital of $1.5 billion was down 6.4% year-over-year. I would point out that we started last year in a very conservative manner, prudently spending only $3.4 billion in the first quarter, given the higher level of economic uncertainty at that time. In 2011, we will be very disciplined in the terms of overall capital spending, matching our spending with growth opportunities. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we ended the quarter with net debt of $47.2 billion, and a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of about 1.4x. On Slide 6, we've displayed first quarter revenues for each of the last three years, which is a good illustration of the transformation and growth of our revenue base. At our investor meeting in January, we talked about this changing revenue mix, and how we've organized ourselves around the growth markets of the future based on a foundation of superior, high-IQ networks that provide the platforms for innovation that we think are unmatched in our industry. Today, 77% of our revenues are in higher growth areas, a sharp increase over the course of the last two years. As we look forward, we are big believers that our high-IQ networks give us a strong, strategic position, and put us at the center of the trends that are driving growth in our industry. In all these strategic areas with our continued emphasis on advancing the deployment of our 4G LTE network in Wireless, with our all-fiber network in mass markets and through our ever-improving global and cloud computing capabilities for Enterprise customers, we are well-positioned to drive higher top line growth. Let's now move into a review of the segments, starting with Wireless on Slide 7. As I said earlier, our Wireless business had a very impressive quarter, with growth in retail customers and ARPU driving service revenue growth and profitability. Total revenue grew to $16.9 billion in the quarter, up 10.2% year-over-year, with total service revenue up 6.3%, with the majority of our device sales occurring in the back half of the first quarter. We are expecting to see higher service revenue growth in the second quarter. In terms of retail postpaid ARPU growth, while we reported year-over-year growth of 2.2% in the first quarter, the month of March was 2.8% higher than last year, which is a good indication of increased revenue and ARPU growth in the second quarter. In terms of new connections, we added a total of 1.8 million this quarter, with 906,000 net retail postpaid customers, and 897,000 wholesale and other connections, including machine-to-machine. While our focus continues to be very much on the retail postpaid market, which continues to be the vast majority of our customer base, we are also broadening our portfolio of machine-to-machine connections in a number of areas: vehicle tracking, meter reading and alarm monitoring, to name a few. And we expect this to be an area of growth for us. We generated $6.3 billion of EBITDA in the first quarter, up 1.7% year-over-year. And while growth in this quarter was impacted by acquisition and retention cost, our service EBITDA margin of 43.7% remains industry leading. We believe that our Wireless EBITDA margins, while they may fluctuate in a given quarter related to successful device introductions, will end up in the mid-40% range for the year. The incremental recurring revenue from smartphone and 4G device sales will help to mitigate the higher acquisition and retention costs. In addition, as I noted in January, we have also identified more than $1 billion in cost saving opportunities in Wireless this year. I am confident that our Wireless team will meet this challenge, and achieve these savings. Let's take a closer look at data growth and device sales on Slide 8. Total data revenue grew $1 billion or 22.3% year-over-year, and now represents 38% of total service revenue. A key driver of data growth in 2011 will be the increased penetration of smartphones in our retail postpaid phone base. To that end, we made good progress, ending the quarter with penetration of 32%. Roughly 60% of all phones sold in the quarter were smartphones, up from 36% just one year ago. 65% of all smartphone sales were new to the category, meaning they were existing customers with feature phones or new Verizon customers. With regard to the iPhone, specifically, 48% of upgrades were new to the smartphone category, meaning, the $30 monthly data plan is incremental revenue. About 22% of our iPhone activations represent new Verizon customers. In terms of 4G LTE, we've seen strong demand for the HTC ThunderBolt and for the PC Cards. On March 29, we introduced our first 4G mobile hotspot device and this past Monday, we announced the availability of our second one. We think these 4G mobile hotspots will be very popular with customers, as they essentially allow any WiFi-enabled device to function as a 4G LTE networked device. We expect demand for our 4G LTE products to strengthen as more smartphones, tablets and hotspots are added to our device portfolio. This includes the recent launch of the Novatel and Samsung mobile hotspots, as well as the addition of new 4G LTE smartphones in April, May and beyond. Clearly, our LTE network performance, our continued build-out, and the successful early product launches are having a very positive impact on the development and strength of the entire LTE ecosystem. As customer acceptance and enthusiasm for smartphones, tablets and all kinds of connected devices gains momentum and becomes more integral to the people's personal and work life, innovation will drive this entire category and expand the overall market. With regard to the further expansion of our LTE footprint, we announced 38 markets in our initial launch in December, covering about 110 million PoPs [Point-of-Presence]. Since then, we've announced more than 100 additional markets in places like Detroit, Memphis, Milwaukee, Louisville, Minneapolis, Sacramento and Honolulu, to name just a few. By the end of the year, we plan to be in about 175 markets, covering more than 185 million PoPs. Let's take a closer look at ARPU next on Slide 9. Throughout last year, we saw accelerating postpaid ARPU growth, starting with 0.6% year-over-year growth in the first quarter, and steadily ramping to 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of 2011, retail postpaid ARPU growth was 2.2%. We attribute this to a few factors, but most notably to late sales in the early part of the quarter in anticipation of the iPhone 4 debut on our network in February. As I said earlier, with much stronger device sales from that point forward, our exit rate for ARPU growth heading into the second quarter was much higher at 2.8%. Data revenue continues to be sourced primarily from web and email services, which increased to $3.2 billion this quarter, up more than 38% from a year ago. Messaging, which makes up about 1/3 of data revenue, is still showing growth, up 7% on a year-over-year basis. At the end of the quarter, we had a total of 6.1 million Internet devices in our postpaid base, with 364,000 net adds in the first quarter, driven by MiFi devices and 4G PC Cards. As we would expect, our churn metrics for this quarter were excellent. Our retail postpaid churn was 1.01%, improving by four basis points year-over-year. We are encouraged by the strong demand exiting the quarter, and the positive implications for increased revenue and ARPU. You can expect us to effectively deliver both growth and profitability, with a focus on gaining share in the retail postpaid market, increasing the penetration of smartphones, and selling more Internet devices, which will drive continued data revenue growth. Let's move to our Wireline segment next on Slide 10. As I said earlier, we are seeing an improvement in revenue trends. The 2.2% year-over-year decline in the first quarter is 60 basis points better than the 2.8% decline last quarter. And if we exclude the effects of the international wholesale pricing change, total Wireline revenues were down 0.7% year-over-year. On the consumer side, our FiOS broadband and video products continue to drive a significant shift in our revenue mix. FiOS now accounts for 54% of consumer revenue, up from 45% a year ago. FiOS revenue in the quarter grew 23.7% year-over-year, and FiOS ARPU is more than $146. On the Global Enterprise side, we had positive year-over-year growth, driven by strong strategic services growth of 12.8%. As with FiOS in the consumer market, strategic services are transforming our revenue mix, now representing 46% of total Enterprise. Within this category, advanced services like Managed Network Solutions, Contact Center Solutions, IP Communications and our cloud offerings, are growing very nicely. From a profitability perspective, segment EBITDA increased $211 million or 9.7%, resulting in a 250 basis point year-over-year improvement in our EBITDA margin to 23.6%. The main reason behind the improvement was our workforce reduction initiatives in 2010, which helped reduce our overall cost of labor. Sequentially, we had a fourth consecutive quarter of EBITDA margin improvement, with an increase of 10 basis points to 23.6%. We achieved this through a combination of revenue stabilization and effective cost management. As the typical first quarter, our cost pressures were offset by the effect of the workforce reductions. Our goal is to achieve margin expansions in 2011 through continuous improvement throughout the year. And while it is unlikely that our workforce reductions in 2011 will come close to what we experienced last year, our focus on reducing our cost structure will be vigilant. Let's take a closer look at the mass markets on Slide 11. Within the mass markets category, consumer revenue of $3.4 billion grew 1.9% versus last year. Consumer ARPU grew to $90.55, an increase of 10.5% from a year ago. The continued penetration of our broadband and video products have increased the scale of our FiOS platform, and is now significant enough to more than offset the secular and competitive pressures in this part of the business. We had another solid quarter of customer growth in FiOS TV, adding 192,000 subscribers for a total of 3.7 million TV customers. Our FiOS TV penetration at the end of the quarter was 29%. On the broadband side, we added 207,000 new FiOS Internet customers in the quarter. Our FiOS Internet customer base increased to 4.3 million, representing 33% penetration of homes open for sale. By adding in our 4.2 million high-speed Internet or DSL customers, we ended the quarter with a total of 8.5 million broadband connections. This reflects an overall increase of 98,000 broadband connections, which marks our best sequential growth since the second quarter of 2009. As I have noted in the past, our customer satisfaction ratings are very high, and our churn rates are very low. Our renewed focus on driving penetration in existing markets has been effective, and we're pleased with the overall progress in FiOS. We were off to a good start this year, and our pipeline for TV services are 43% year-over-year. Let's move next to our business markets on Slide 12. While we are seeing some signs of improvement, revenues in the business market continue to be challenged by economic pressures. Global Enterprise revenue was up 1% year-over-year. Strategic Services drove the year-over-year improvement, led by a very strong growth in Advanced Services, such as Managed Network, Call Center, IP Communications, and our cloud offerings. As I've said, this category of services is becoming a larger part of our revenues, and we are incenting our sales force to sell these solutions to our Enterprise customers. As we experienced last quarter, the absolute dollar growth in Strategic Services outpaced the dollar decline in core Enterprise Services. In Global Wholesale, revenues declined 11.2% year-over-year. As we've discussed, our route rationalization strategy has resulted in a substantial decline in International Voice revenue, worth $162 million this quarter on a year-over-year basis. Since these price changes were initiated in mid-2010, I'd say we have a few more quarters to work through before the comparative impact of these actions moderates. Absent these effects, first quarter Global Wholesale revenues declined 5% year-over-year. This decline is primarily in Domestic Voice, where we continue to experience secular pressures and lower usage volumes. I will wrap up here with the chart we used at our investor meeting in January, showing the keys to success in terms of executing our business model. We had a solid first quarter and a quality start to the year. Our early performance gives us great confidence that we are on track to meet our financial objectives, and continue to position ourselves for future growth and profitability. As I mentioned earlier, we’ve built great momentum, and have entered the second quarter in very good shape. We're seeing continued demand for our Apple products and 4G LTE devices with more smartphones, tablets, and Internet devices coming to market shortly. As such, we expect Service revenue growth, and ARPU accretion to accelerate with each quarter this year. Our FiOS customer pipeline is very healthy, and we are very excited to add Terremark, one of the premier assets in hosting and cloud services to our portfolio of global assets and capabilities, enhancing our competitive position around the cloud opportunity, and contributing to our growth. I'll stop here and turn it back to John, so we can open up the call to your questions.