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NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 6, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the NCR Corporation Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2013 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. And now, your host for today's call, the Vice President of Investor Relations, Ms. Tracy Krumme. Ms. Krumme, please go ahead now.

Tracy H. Krumme

Management

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2013 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Bill Nuti, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; John Bruno, Executive Vice President; and Bob Fishman, Chief Financial Officer. Our presentation and discussion today includes forecasts and other information that are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. While these statements reflect our current outlook, expectations and beliefs, they are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to vary materially. These risks and uncertainties are described in our earnings release and in our periodic filings with the SEC, including our annual report to stockholders. On today's call, we will be referring to a presentation posted on our website. We will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial information, such as free cash flow and results excluding the impact of pension and other items. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to our reported and forecasted GAAP results and other information concerning such measures are included in our earnings release and are also available on the Investors section of NCR's website. A replay of this conference call will be available later today on our website, ncr.com. For those listening to the replay, please keep in mind that the information discussed is as of February 6, 2014, and NCR assumes no obligation to update or revise the information included in this call, whether as a result of new information or future events. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Bill.

William R. Nuti

Management

Thank you, Tracy, and good afternoon to all of you. I'm on Page 4 of the slide deck, top left corner, Revenue. Revenue for Q4 came in as expected, up 2% year-on-year, up 4% on a constant currency basis. For us, I'll talk more about revenue when I get to the full year. On operational gross margin, it's an interesting story for us. We did a great quarter in terms of gross margin enhancement in the business. But about half of that came from organically developed software in Financial Services and Retail. So non-Retalix -- non-Radiant software mainly drove that -- about half of that gross margin advantage for us in Q4. But it was a very solid quarter in terms of gross margin expansion for us across the board and operating margins across the board in just about every line of business. NPOI hit a record for us in the quarter, a record both in terms of dollars and margin, up 22% year-on-year, and we hit an all-time high NPOI margin of 13.2% in the quarter. I think it's the first time we hit 13% since the spinoff from AT&T back in 1997. And we had a great quarter in terms of free cash flow, up 160% year-on-year. Bob will give you more color on cash flow during his prepared remarks. I would like to, before I leave the slide, say a couple of things about execution. This is now the 16th quarter in a row that our team has had year-over-year revenue and NPOI growth. And in the spirit of doing what you say you're going to do, this is the 17th quarter in a row that we've either beat or met EPS consensus estimate. So I'm really proud of the team in terms of their ability to…

John G. Bruno

Management

Thank you, Bill. We're on Slide 7, and on this slide, we summarize a number of quantitative and qualitative highlights for our lines of business for not only Q4 2013, but also for the full year. I'm not going to speak to each of these bullets, but I wanted to call your attention to a few results that support our continued strategic execution. Let me start with Financial Services. We're very pleased with our operating margin performance as it demonstrates how we're managing this business, as we transform managing operating expenses and investing in new growth areas such as software solutions and professional services. These investments are driving improved balance and diversification of our revenue streams. On previous calls, we have been asked about our views on North America, in particular. And as we have stated in Q2 and Q3 calls, we expected to see orders growth in Q4. We're very pleased with the 26% orders growth we delivered, led by solid results and branch transformation. On the full year, branch transformation delivered over $80 million in orders, and that number does not include any post-sale customer support or other managed services. We are also pleased with the traction and progress we're seeing across tiers and geographies, with $25 million of those orders coming from outside the U.S. Also on a full year basis, we're encouraged with the software growth in our funnel, backlog and revenue, demonstrating our customers' interest in what we've been building as they drive their individual retail bank transformation initiatives. And lastly, we're pleased with the overall geographical balance of this business, with 2/3 of revenues being outside North America, demonstrating solid execution against our global strategy. In Retail, this line of business experienced strong operating income growth in Q4 of 48%, given a higher mix…

William R. Nuti

Management

Thank you, John. Bob will give you some perspective on the numbers in a moment in terms of guidance for 2014. But let me just tell you, I'm genuinely excited about 2014 as the CEO of the company, coming into this year. We have been working on the reinvention of this company for a long time. And coming into '14, we just have a tremendous set of operating assets in the businesses, so well diversified, I couldn't be more pleased with the company's position globally, in terms of geographies; product segments, in terms of hardware, software, SaaS and services; as well as channels to market on a global basis. So I feel very good about our position by vertical market in all of those dimensions. All of our lines of business this year are poised for growth to grow margins and, again, to also improve their own balance across all of those spectrums. But we will, again, move the needle on software and SaaS and services growth in '14. We'll see another solid year, more than double-digit growth in those categories. We'll also continue our strong track record this year of what has been, I think, a stellar job by this management team in terms of acquisition integration. My concerns are less around integrating acquired companies. It's more now integrating NCR employees into the new NCR. Revenue growth, gross margin expansion and improving the customer experience remain top strategic performance goals of ours in the year. You'll find that our guidance in the year is consistent, we think, with a very high-performing technology company. We will continue to invest in becoming a better company in delivering a wonderful, delightful experience to our customers. We'll continue to maintain focus on what matters underneath the covers: continuous improvement, productivity, efficiency, quality. We've…

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Okay. Very good. I am going to be sharing quite a few financial charts. I hope everyone has the PowerPoints in front of them. What I'm trying to do is make the NCR story, the transformation much simpler. So in the past, where you might have gone to 2 or 3 different sources, whether it was the earnings release or the script or the PowerPoints, I tried to assemble the information here all in one place. So I'm on Page 12. 12 is the operational P&L for NCR. First row is revenue. I'm going to talk a little bit more about revenue when I get into the line of business revenue information. I will repeat what Bill said. It was a record gross margin rate, driven by more software, so up 260 basis points in Q4 and up 170 basis points for the full year. Expenses under control. On a percent of revenue basis, I'm very proud of expense management at NCR. NPOI in Q4, up 22%, and $717 million of NPOI for the full year, up 22%, and again, a record operating margin at 11.7%. And then from an EPS perspective, growing nicely at 15% in Q4 and 13% for the full year. I've included in the footnote at the bottom the effective tax rate, and you can see we landed at 22% for the full year 2013. My tax team did a really nice job in the year. A couple of numbers I wanted to call your attention to, at this time last year, we gave NPOI guidance of $695 million to $710 million. During the year, we upped it to $700 million to $720 million and we finished at the upper end of that range at $717 million, again, very proud of that result. If you look…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And for our first question, we go to Paul Coster with JP Morgan. Paul Coster - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: You're guiding to 4% to 5% growth for Financial Services x Digital Insight in 2014. Can you talk a little bit about how you get to that? And the 26% growth you saw in 4Q orders for the hardware side of the business, how quickly does that translate into growth? And do you actually expect that hardware business to grow in '14?

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes. Thank you, Paul. First of all, at the aggregate level in Q4, Financial Services grew orders 11% and that's after growing orders in Q3 17%. What I like about Q4, Paul, is that in Q3, you remember we had a very big order from a Brazilian customer and, in Q4, it was very balanced. It's a clean quarter from that point of view in terms of it being about growth quarter. So on an overall basis, we grew Financial Services 11%. North America was 26% growth. Rest of World was 6%, in terms of Rest of World growth in orders. So a very solid order quarter. They turned around a fairly negative backlog situation in Q3 and Q4 into a positive backlog situation coming into Q1. Their backlog is up low-single digits, and they're starting out Q1 well. Now we have a long way to go in Q1, but I would be surprised if Financial Services didn't grow again in orders in Q1, have a solid book-to-bill and build their backlog up going into Q2. So I feel good about what is a turnaround in that older hardware business, primarily driven by branch transformation orders in Q4 and more momentum in that space coming into 2014. Paul Coster - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: All right. Now I know that you're in the mode of under-promising and over-delivering here, but the EPS guidance for 2014 does look a bit conservative, given the shift towards software and services we've already seen and how that will accelerate with the acquisition of Digital Insight. Could you just still comment on the EPS guidance for the year ahead?

William R. Nuti

Management

I think it's fair, Paul. I think you know our style for many years. Both Bob and I prefer to risk-adjust the entire year early on and see how things go in Q1 before we change guidance on the -- I think we've changed guidance annually the last 4 years in a row, if I'm not mistaken. But we'll see where it goes, Paul. As Q1 goes, so goes your year around here. So I feel really good about a guidance of $3 to $3.10 right now, but let's see where Q1 lands before we look at guidance for Q2 and beyond.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question, we go to Dan Perlin with RBC Capital Markets.

Daniel R. Perlin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

I can't remember what slide it was. It was the last slide here. But I'm wondering if you can help me bridge something. If we have a jumping off point of $221 million in NPOI, and I think you said your tax rate effective was 25% and you got interest expense another 38%. I don't see how you get to the $0.83. So there's either something in the interest and other line or your taxes are lower. So can you just help me bridge that to start?

Robert P. Fishman

Management

In terms of going from the NPOI of $221 million to the $0.83, again, you would back out the OIE and take that after tax and divide by the share count, that would get you your $0.83.

Daniel R. Perlin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

So if I look at operating -- the interest expense was $33 million and then you had this other $5 million, right? So it's $38 million. Is that number really $33 million? And then is the tax $46 million? I can -- instead of trying to play guesses, I'm just trying to put real numbers here, if that makes sense. I'm like 2 other -- see, I'm just trying to -- I'm trying to get rid of all the noise and just say, $221 million less $38 million gives you $183 million pretax, and $46 million plus the noninterest line gives me $0.80 so there's something that's too much in there and I think it's probably simple, but I need your help to get to it.

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Yes. I mean, roughly speaking, and we include on our website a non-GAAP schedule. But basically, you would take the $221 million, you'd back out interest and other income of $32 million and then you'd take that after tax, and you're right, the effective rate was 25%. You'd divide it by the share count, which is around 170 million, and that will get you your answer.

Daniel R. Perlin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So it's $32 million versus the $35 million -- or $32 million and then the $5 million. So it's -- okay. I can work on that. That's very helpful. The other thing is, as you said, Retail was down, I guess, about 5% in this quarter. We're calling for 8% to 10% for the year. Is that -- it's a pretty bogey, and I'm just wondering, is that a function of the self-checkout business that you guys had alluded winning last quarter? Like what gives you the confidence that you can have such a big swing?

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes. I think that both John and I will tag team on this, but Retail is coming into the year, again, with a backlog in the low-single digits as well, similar to Financial Services. So their starting point is reasonable. And from what we can see in terms of orders right now in Q1, Q2, we feel good about the guidance. And yes, there's no doubt that self-checkout orders will play a role in that 8% to 10% growth this year. Also, don't forget, we will continue to see good growth on the Retalix side year-on-year.

John G. Bruno

Management

Yes, that's right, and that's a story of balance in the portfolio. I mean, this business has been hard at work in creating a platform story across point of sale and now, self-checkout. We've talked in previous quarters and we haven't spent as much time talking about the various, what we call, the variants of self-checkout, the smaller footprint. But now you've got businesses that have combined, that came together that, a year or so ago, we didn't have. If you just think about the convenience store part of our business, the petroleum part of our business, those 3 businesses as individual businesses were good in NCR or in Radiant or in Retalix. But what they have a capability of doing together is allowing us to just have better segment penetration moving down market on hardware and you're seeing our organic software for the first time grow year-on-year. I mentioned some of the results in Q4, but we're encouraged by the organic software now plus the Retalix, now going the down market. So we just feel like we have a much better balanced story in Retail which is -- which gives us the confidence. And I think Bob said it best when he said it's a business transformed because it's obviously business that's had the benefit of both the organic and the inorganic investments coming together now for some time. So team's hard at work at delivering that globally.

Daniel R. Perlin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then just one last one, if I could. The -- to kind of steal a slide from Analyst Day and update it, you had a core working capital metrics slide at your Analyst Day, and it basically showed a percentage of quarterly sales as a percentage of the core working capital. It looked like you guys came in at like 55% versus the third quarter of 71%. So clearly, an improvement. I'm wondering if we use that as a benchmark, because it was certainly -- it wasn't good as '12 and it was about even until '11. Is that -- are we shooting for something in the 40s in order to get to that? I mean, I can see your reconciliation table on 16, but I'm also trying to update this other one.

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes, yes. No, no. That's a chart that we very much focused on. It was driving working capital as a percentage of revenue and I think as a number more in line with the yearly sales. You've quoted the quarterly number, the 55%. That was our goal, and that's what we achieved. My goal, again, is to drive 15% of working capital as a percentage of the 12 months of revenue. It would equate probably pretty close to the 55%. So again, that metric doesn't drift. I'd like to get it maybe closer to 14%. I've seen that in the past. So again, I'm always focused on improving working capital. So could it get better than the 55%? Yes, but that's kind of where it's been in '11 and then, again, in '13.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question, we go to Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer. Ian A. Zaffino - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Not to belabor the point about the 2014 numbers, but I just look at your 2015 guidance and you gave that very recently and I'm sure you're probably pretty confident in that. So I'm just trying to get a sense of -- does this really show that 2014 guidance is just very conservative, just given that you've 8% growth in earnings into 2014 and then you'd almost need 20% growth into 2015 to kind of hit the midpoint of both guidance ranges. So does this really look like maybe it's -- that 8% growth into 2013 might be a little bit too conservative and should be higher? Or how do we think about that?

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Yes. I mean, we had given the guidance at Analyst Day for '15 of $3.60 to $3.85 and then when we announced Digital Insight, we said that, that acquisition would be $0.15 accretive in 2015, so basically upping us to the range of $3.75 to $4. We feel good about that. We have set ourselves up with the right investments. We have 4 lines of business that are performing well. Bill showed the software chart. That's going to continue to grow, and that's what's going to drive that profitability for '15. Ian A. Zaffino - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then on -- that's very helpful that you broke out the x Wal-Mart growth of the Retail business. When should we start to see the 2 big self-checkout wins that you had announced flow through? So I'm just trying to think about how we should look at the comps and how to think of it that way.

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes. I think 2014 -- as I said last quarter, 2014 is a year where you should see shipments from those 2 wins that also continued shipments from our other customers around the world, including the large customers that have made large purchases in the past. That, we think, will continue in '14 and '15. Ian A. Zaffino - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay. So I guess because -- just because you have tough comps, let's just say because you had Wal-Mart in the first quarter of last year, a lot of these orders are going to start shipping. So it shouldn't really be a tough comp from the previous year.

Robert P. Fishman

Management

I think on a year-over-year basis, Ian, it should not be a difficult comp. And Q1 will be a difficult comp, of course, because there was a -- just a fairly sizable shipment from one customer that went out in a single quarter. But on the year, no. Ian A. Zaffino - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then last question really is, I know the emerging markets have been very good to you guys. What are you seeing there now? What are you kind of hearing realtime there, as far as demand and sort of sentiment, et cetera?

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes. We had a good year in the emerging markets. We had a good quarter in the emerging markets. Some of our best countries in Q4 for growth were India, China, Turkey, Thailand, Kuwait. We've had some great quarters from a number of the emerging markets. And of course, Brazil continues to hum and do well for us. So we feel good about the emerging markets. Again, as Bob stated earlier, when you take North America ATMs out of the equation, Financial Services had a pretty good year on an overall basis. I mean, I'm -- just one key point for you guys will be, while the revenue declined FX-neutral, call it, negative 1% in '13 versus '12, software, software maintenance and consulting revenue grew 6% FX-neutral in '13. So the value proposition and transformation is well demonstrated even in a down year of what we're doing. So it's not just talk and customers validated it in Q4 in 2013 despite the volume drop. So I feel good about emerging markets. I feel good about the mix shift they're driving. It's evident in the operating margins of the business. I think there was a couple of times last year where it might be thought that the operating margin improvement came from onetime events. They're not. This is systemic, a change, a transformation in that business and it showed up quite well for us across the board.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question, we go to Meghna Ladha with Susquehanna Financial Group.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Going back to the 2014 guidance, here we see a huge delta between the NPOI growth at 26% and the EPS growth of 7% to 10%. Bob, is that primarily because of the higher interest expense and the higher tax rate?

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes. It is, Meghna. It's mainly the highest -- higher interest rate and tax rate.

Robert P. Fishman

Management

And you can see that fairly clearly on Page 20 where we break out the '14 guidance and then have the '13 comparables. But you can see OIE increasing from $112 million to $200 million and then the tax rate changing from 22% to 26%.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. Okay, and the next question for Bill. In your discussions with the regional banks, what are they saying regarding their investment plans around deposit automation this year? Do you think that the EMV Windows 7 upgrade requirement will act as a catalyst?

William R. Nuti

Management

Well, there's no doubt, Meghna. It's already doing that. We're seeing that flow through in orders in Q4 and here, orders in Q1 even in month 1, a solid start to the year. We'll see more of that as the year goes on, not just from retail banks, but large banks as well. I would note that, by the way, a significant portion of our branch transformation business does also Tier 1 banks. We're seeing good traction in Tier 1 banks for service solutions in branch. But Win 7, EMV, having a small impact now, nothing significant and will have more of an impact as the year goes on and at the first quarter of '15.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then with the Hospitality, it continues to -- you guide to like 12% to 15% for the year. But can you go over some of the key assumptions behind your guidance and what's really driving growth in this particular segment?

Robert P. Fishman

Management

It really continues to be a strong North America market and then expansion internationally. John, did you want to...

John G. Bruno

Management

Yes, another -- it's another -- yes, it's another important balance story. So first, we're taking share, and I think that's important to note. So if you look at our growth in North America SMB, that's why I pointed out both SaaS growth, sites growth, North America SMB growth. These are areas we're traditionally strong, so you would've anticipated to see growth for our businesses international, where we're seeing that. But we're also seeing it in the core. The team has just done an exemplary job of understanding their customer base and creating delivery models to satisfy that customer base, both in the direct and indirect channel. Not to mention the fact that NCR and NCR's wallet coming in a couple of years ago, investing very significantly in a number of different things that business would not have been able to afford to do. We're beginning to yield those results. So as long as that business continues to grow and deliver the margins that we expect to deliver, we're going to continue to invest in it. Because even with its share gains, just from an overall concentration basis, it's still a market that's wide open to us. So we're very enthusiastic about it, both domestically and internationally.

William R. Nuti

Management

And Meghna, I would also point to the fact that we have an amazing technology in that business. We have tremendous innovation in our Hospitality solution. We have -- so we've invested significantly as per John's comments, but we have a technology lead. We have the best software and hardware and mobile platforms in the world, and our SaaS platform is unmatched, our SaaS applications, our SaaS solutions, which is why you're seeing the growth you're seeing in SaaS in that business.

Operator

Operator

And we go next to Natalia Kogay with Morgan Stanley.

Natalia Kogay - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

This is Natalia Kogay for Katy Huberty here. I know that you don't provide quarterly for cash flow guidance, but could you provide some commentary on -- for cash flow seasonality as we move through 2014? And then specifically, what kind of free cash flow conversion we can expect in 1Q? And I have a follow-up as well.

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Yes, I really do not want to go down the path of giving quarterly free cash flow guidance. I'm trying to stay focused on the longer term here. We're driving free cash flow to de-lever the balance sheet, create growth opportunities. It's a seasonal business. To be honest, if working capital isn't building early in the year, that's when I get concerned because I'm driving a higher revenue in the back half of the year. So I'll be very focused. I like to collect my cash as early as possible. So we're pushing the team to improve all of the metrics, whether it's DSO or inventory. But again, I do believe that the linearity will be improved. I will not have as much free cash flow coming in, in the fourth quarter, as I saw this year on a percentage of the total. But again, that seasonal linearity is just something that exists.

William R. Nuti

Management

And let me just say this to everyone on the line as well. It's important to make this point on cash flow. Both Bob and I are laser-focused on improving cash flow conversion as a percent of NPOI. And trust me, there's a lot of going on that will yield to great results over the next several years. Linearity of that cash flow, and oh, by the way, I just changed the bonus plan for every employee on a bonus plan at NCR this year. We have about 5,000 people on a bonus plan at NCR. Everyone of them now gets paid on 2 components: NPOI and free cash flow. It's the first time we've done it, and it should yield better results, more education and greater focus in the long term.

Natalia Kogay - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

That's really helpful. And then the second question is, in 2013, 41%, I believe CapEx growth outpaced your, I'm thinking, non-pension OpEx growth of 9% and we saw a similar gap in 2012. Can you just comment on what drove that CapEx growth and whether we should expect more of the cost to be expensed in 2014?

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Well, again, at 2014, I've given guidance of $250 million to $260 million, up from to $226 million. The majority of that increase is Digital and investing, continuing to invest in their business, whether it's through data centers or through software enhancements. I would say that as the CapEx has increased over the last couple of years, it's a combination of a focus on process improvement. For example, internally we are doing things like creating a customer portal, a spend analytics tool, a number of things that just improve processes within NCR. I've made a big investment in CapEx in India in terms of the business model in India. I continue to fund Retalix, Hospitality, John's other software businesses and Digital Insight in terms of SaaS applications. So all of these opportunities have to meet a 15% hurdle rate or cost of capital of 10%. But then I throw in a risk premium of 5% on top of that. So again, these are opportunities that compete against each other. I'm slowing down the CapEx when you normalize for Digital. And again, I have turned back some opportunities. But I do want to continue to invest because that's what creates the sustainable revenue growth -- the high sustainable revenue growth into the future.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question, we go to Matt Summerville with KeyBanc.

Matt J. Summerville - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Two, 2 quick questions here. First is a pretty easy one. I think, branch transformation, you guys have provided some guidance in terms of what you anticipated to generate in revenue in '13 and '14. Bill, can you just go through that again?

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes. So in -- on the revenue side, Matt, think about us hitting about $75 million in revenue on the year, all in. It's -- now the difficulty there is we don't track annuity revenue, services, post-sales support as closely on those units yet. But we hit probably around $75 million. We'll double that in '14, if not, do a little bit better than that in '14. So we're on track with what we described from last several quarters in terms of the opportunity there.

Matt J. Summerville - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then Bob, I'm just -- I'm still trying to figure out cash flow. And Bill, I think it's probably an excellent move to put people on a comp plan that relates to that and I'm big advocate of that. But Bob, I'm looking at how you've defined free cash flow in the past. In the third quarter, you looked at it as operating cash flow less PP&E, capitalized software. In this press release, you're now subtracting discretionary pension contributions and settlement. So I guess, I'm trying to figure out if you actually hit your cash flow forecast or not.

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Yes. No change, Matt. No change. We've always had the same definition. What we've done is we've always taken our free cash flow, the operating cash. We've excluded the -- I should say, we've taken the operating cash adjusted for CapEx and discontinued operations. We think that's very transparent and then when there's onetime pension contributions, we've normalized free cash flow that way. So that's consistent with how we've been doing it. The normal pension contributions are as outlined on Page 16. So $79 million in 2013, $70 million in 2014, but that does exclude any onetime contributions that were made in '13.

Matt J. Summerville - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

As I look at free cash flow and kind of the way you guys are looking at it as a percent of NPOI, Bill, as you're thinking about this longer term and you're moving the organization more on cash metrics and if I look at companies in my coverage universe that I would characterize as world-class cash generators, they're at about 80% to 85% conversion of operating profit. And I guess, I'm wondering where you think ultimately NCR can get to.

William R. Nuti

Management

In the medium term, Matt, 50% to 60% in that range, that's the next 3 years. Obviously, Bob and I are shooting for higher than that. But longer term, Matt, given the work we've done on pension, we think we could get to 60% to 70%.

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Matt, when you look at some of these things, they'll just naturally come down. The pension contributions, we've said, was going to go from 70% to 50%. Some of the CapEx is being spent to grow our manufacturing footprint, so that won't be around the India project. That's a 2-year project. So just by their nature, some of these outflows will decrease and then the NPOI will help as well, so that 50% to 60% is very achievable goal.

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes, Matt. And think about this one. Fox goes away at some point later this century. I'm kidding about that -- in 2017 or so. So -- but I'm waiting for 2017, Matt, like you can't believe. When that goes away, that's about $40 million a year in run rate costs for us right now in cash.

Matt J. Summerville - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Do think there's any chance that Kalamazoo can be another Fox? Or is that more contained, if you will?

William R. Nuti

Management

Yes. More contained, Matt. Yes -- no. No, we're not worried about that.

Operator

Operator

And we go next to Gil Luria with Wedbush Securities.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And I actually want to start by congratulating you for completing the pension program. I know I'm going to appreciate not having to ask about pensions anymore in the future after 5 years of that discussion over that, so congratulations on that. I wanted to ask first about self-service checkout in the Retail segment. What percentage of revenue was that in 2013? And what percent do you expect that to be in '14?

William R. Nuti

Management

Do you have that?

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Yes. Self-checkout as a percentage of revenue for '13...

William R. Nuti

Management

I'm going to guess for you, Gil. I'm going to guess and let's see if I'm right, because I've got a couple of guys here looking at numbers. I'm going to guess it was about 30% of hardware revenue and probably around 10% to 15% of overall revenue.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst

In the Retail line?

William R. Nuti

Management

In the retail line, all in.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then second question is about -- you provided us with the numbers for Digital Insight for 2014. But could you tell us what the aggregate number are -- is for all the other small acquisitions, Alaric, the Hospitality distributors, all those for 2014 or even the equivalents for 2013? And then if your 2014 guidance includes any other acquisitions, big or small?

Robert P. Fishman

Management

Yes, 2014 guidance right now does not include any other acquisitions. Alaric is small in terms of its contribution. We had said that on the last and then the other ones are relatively small as well. So Gil, we're very focused on the Digital Insight piece. Nothing in '14 in terms of impacting these numbers. This is all basically what we have in our portfolio today.

William R. Nuti

Management

Gil, this is Bill. The math was done. I'm happy to tell you it was correct. Self-checkout was 12% of total revenues in '13.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And what's the expectation for '14?

William R. Nuti

Management

Probably around the same, Gil. That'd be my guess, in that same range.

Operator

Operator

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions on our roster. Therefore, Mr. Nuti, I will turn the conference back over to you for any closing remarks.

William R. Nuti

Management

Well, thank you to all of you for joining us tonight, and we look forward to speaking to you again in April. Good night.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.