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NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX)

Q4 2010 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 4, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome, and thank you from standing by. And welcome to the NCR Corporation Fourth Quarter 2010 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). I will now turn the call over to Gavin Bell, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Gavin Bell

Management

Thank you, Catherine. Good afternoon, and thanks everyone for joining us for our Fourth Quarter 2010 Earnings Call. Bill Nuti, NCR’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will lead our conference call this afternoon. After Bill’s opening remarks, John Bruno, Executive Vice President of our Industry Solutions Group will update you on progress with respect to certain key initiatives. Bob Fishman, NCR’s Chief Financial Officer, will then provide comments on NCR’s total company financial results. Our discussion today includes forecasts and other information that are considered forward-looking statements. While these statements reflect our current outlook, they are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to vary materially. These risk factors are described in NCR’s periodic filings with the SEC and in our annual report to stockholders. On today’s call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial information such as free cash flow, and the results excluding the impact of pension and other items. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial results to our reported and forecasted GAAP results, and other information concerning such measures are included in our earnings press release and are also available on the investor page of NCR’s website. A replay of this conference call will be available later today on NCR’s website, NCR.com. For those listening to the replay of this call, please keep in mind that the information discussed is as of February 3rd, 2011, and NCR assumes no obligation to update or revise the information included in this conference call, whether as a result of new information or future results. With that, I will now turn the call over to Bill.

William Nuti

Management

Thank you, Gavin and good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us today. NCR ended 2010 on a strong note. We met our financial targets and importantly continued to rebuild our order backlog and sales funnel which bodes well for continued growth in revenue, NPOI and EPS expansion in 2011. In fact, our order backlog ending the year was nearly $1 billion; historically, a healthy level for NCR. We’re also seeing an improvement in the overall demand environment as the global macro-recovery continues to be slow, but steady. Our performance during the fourth quarter in full year was attributable to an improved level of execution across NCR. In financial services, we capture market share in both developed and emerging countries further solidifying our number one position globally. Critical to this success was our growth in ATM and the converged channel software offerings that give our banking customers new opportunities to strengthen relationships with their end customers. In Retail, our ongoing investments in innovations have greatly strengthened our portfolio of Self-Checkout solutions at a time when retailers indicate greater willingness to invest and move more definitively toward self-service channels. In our Services business, we expanded margins during the year, improved attach rates and made significant strive toward improving customer loyalty. Finally, our Self-Service solutions are winning business in emerging verticals including entertainment, travel and healthcare. In addition to revenue generation, we also continue to strengthen NCR from within. We made strategic investments in our sales operations and improve geographic and customer coverage to create and capitalize on global sales opportunities. And we took important steps to operate more efficiently and effectively including the transition to a more market driven operating model without industry solutions group structure. With the help of our global continuous improvement program, we achieved our cost reduction…

John Bruno

Management

Thank you, Bill, and good afternoon, everyone. Bill touched upon our lines of business, but I’d like to give you a broader update and provide some additional detail on our progress deploying self-service technologies across our core and emerging industries. First, I’ll provide some additional color on our Entertainment business, and start by saying that 2010 was a year where NCR established itself in this business and demonstrated our ability to build and grow at an accelerated pace in this market. So, let’s talk about where we are today and then where we’re going. We finished the year with approximately 8,000 deployed kiosks with an average fleet age of approximately eight months. As Bill mentioned, we pulled back from our original deployment plan late in the year so that we could focus on improving revenue for kiosk, same store sales growth and time to profitability ahead of deployments. Having said that, revenue per kiosk improved every quarter with same store sales up over 100% year-on-year and 16% sequentially; and while this is very healthy growth, we see room for improvement. The majority of our network is performing to our satisfaction at this stage of our business model maturity, but approximately 20% of our sites are below planned. This was the main factor in our decision to hold deployments as we better understood the issues that impacted location selection, advertising, network density and availability. We felt it was necessary to focus in our underperforming stores as we tune our network after an aggressive deployment year. As a result, we’re either addressing site-related issues or redeploying machines in our networks to locations that experience higher transaction. We’re in a position to do so now because we have a solid pipeline of locations that meet our more mature deployment criteria. All of these…

Bob Fishman

Management

Okay. Thanks, John. NCR’s total revenue from continuing operations in the fourth quarter was $1.4 billion up 5% versus Q4 2009. Fourth quarter revenues also increased 5% on a constant currency basis. We reported GAAP income from continuing operations of $32 million or $0.20 per diluted share. This compares to GAAP income from continuing operations of $41 million or $0.25 per diluted share in Q4 2009. NCR’s results from continuing operations include special items in both periods. Income from continuing operations in the fourth quarter of 2010, included $52 million or $0.26 per diluted share after tax of pension expense; a $14 million or $0.06 per diluted share after tax impairment charge related to an investment; and an $8 million or $0.03 per diluted share after tax litigation charge. Income from continuing operations in the fourth quarter of 2009, included $41 million or $0.16 per diluted share after tax of pension expense; a $24 million or $0.10 per diluted share after tax impairment charge related to an equity investment in related asset; and $6 million or $0.02 per diluted share after tax of incremental cost related to the relocation of the company’s global headquarters. Excluding these items, non-GAAP diluted income per share was $0.55 per share in Q4 2010 versus earnings of $0.53 per diluted share in Q4 2009. To analyze NCR’s operational performance without the effect of special items and pension expense, please see the supplemental financial schedule included in our earnings press release that reconciles our GAAP to non-GAAP results. Also please be advised that a reconciliation table providing earnings per share excluding pension expense on a quarterly employer basis for 2009 has been posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. Excluding the impact of special items and pension expense, our Q4 2010 gross margin was…

William Nuti

Management

Thanks, Bob and John. NCR enters 2011 in a strong position to capitalize on our growing business opportunities while further expending our addressable market. Our goal is simple, drive profitable revenue growth by leading the transition to self-service channels across each and every vertical we serve. The guidance we have set for 2011 affirms accelerated growth, margin expansion and improves cash flows for NCR. Demand trends have improved and order backlog is healthy. We are well-situated in our core solutions domestically and internationally, both in terms of market share and the pace of innovation we are delivering to our customers. Our market and technology leadership is backed up by a manufacturing footprint that is now optimally structured to serve our global customer base efficiently and effectively. Our cost structure continues to improve measurably and we have a defined strategy in place to restore the funding status of our pensions and less than risk exposure in the portfolio for the future. Of course, opportunity and positioning are not enough. In all of these areas, we must execute. I am confident that we will and we look forward to keeping you updated on our progress throughout the year. Thank you. And I’ll now open up the call for questions, operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Our first question is from John Williams with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. John Williams – Goldman Sachs: Good evening, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Just curious if you could give a little color on the Chase deals in terms of the mix between the higher end terminals and cash dispensers only. I mean obviously there’s been a pricing difference there between those, but is there any further color you can give on that?

William Nuti

Management

Yes, generally it was about 50/50 in terms of the full function deposit-taking units and cash dispensed units only. On those products, I wouldn’t read into them anyone of those being a better margin or not, they’re both. Because of the innovations relative to SDM now, we’re a little bit better on the full function side. So, while I would have said last year when we had two modules to accomplish the goal we’re now doing in one module, margins would have been less for full function. This year, they’re a little bit better. John Williams – Goldman Sachs: Got it. In terms of what you’re seeing from the retailers – had the opportunity to visit your booth at the show here in New York, and the products look like what I would think the Tier 2 retailers would probably want in terms of functionality inside and things like that. What is the pushback that you get at this point from potential customers when you’re trying to sell these products? Is it that they don’t want to make a decision on the actual spending side or is there something else that they’re waiting for? I guess just generally what you feel is the comfort level in the pipeline right now?

William Nuti

Management

I think it’s about the same as last year, John. I feel pretty good about where retailers are relative to investment decisions now. I look at the same data points you do in terms of same store sales growth, revenue growth in retail. Today, some numbers came out, they were relatively positive about January. That’s all good because, of course, January is the end of the fiscal year for retailers. February is when we start to get a sense of how the next year ahead of us is going to look. I don’t have any data points yet there, I will and certainly by the end of Q1 in terms of the sales call I’ll be making. But I would say going into the year, first of all, we had a terrific NRF. I mean I was really pleased with the fact that there were many more international customers that came to the event. Our booth was extremely busy. We, obviously, have come out with a new strategy that’s candidly much more focused on software with respect to our c-tailing strategy and underlying products like the Enterprise Preference Manager, which was very well received by our customers. I agree with your point, we now have a set of products that can address Tier 2, 3 and 4 much more effectively than we’ve done in the past because we were largely a Tier 1 provider. We have to execute there, John, and we have built a channel capability to go a do that. I don’t know how much that’s going to show up in ‘11, but we do expect to continue to innovate products for lower tiers of the retail space, continue to invest in the channel, we’ve made a lot of investments there this year and we hope to see tangible pickup in that business this year going into next year. John Williams – Goldman Sachs: Bill, one last thing, is there a marked difference between what you see when you talk to retailers about their upgrade decisions versus the banks at this point? Is there still some degree of a gap between the two or do you feel it’s closed somewhat? I mean the comments are that we get from the software side, the FIS and Pfizer’s of the world that we cover seems to indicate that the decision is a bit easier and I was just curious to see if you’re getting that sense as well on the hardware side now.

William Nuti

Management

Yes, no question. I mean it’s about the same, maybe retail a little bit better at this juncture because we had such a hard 2009, candidly, I mean. I think a lot of companies, by the way, John, are doing better in retail because the compares are much easier over 2009. I don’t want to skirt the fact that while we had a terrific 2010 in retail, we also had some pretty easy compares to overcome. This will year be a year where we’ll have a much better set of compares. And going into the year, I think to your point, we’re feeling as though retailers are at least in contrast to a bank probably a tad more optimistic about investing.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Katy Huberty – Morgan Stanley: Thanks. Good afternoon. Bill, the 1 billion of backlog and particularly the Americas growth out of the fourth quarter, above encouraging, but the recovery in international growth rates hasn’t been as straight line as you’ve seen in the U.S. Can you just talk specifically about what the pipeline and the backlog looks like outside of the U.S. versus inside.

William Nuti

Management

Yes, I agree with you Katy. We were pleasantly surprise with the Americas performance in Q4, both on orders and revenue. And candidly, it was a comeback quarter for them because up to about the fourth quarter, they were doing okay; where the other international markets were doing really well. I would say this Asia Pacific specific to Q4 had a very tough compare versus Q4 of 2009 when they were up 12% year-on-year. And by the way, in 2010, Asia Pacific had the best year of any of the last four year, which I can’t say for the Americas or Europe. Europe probably going into the year was a slightly lower backlog; the Americas, a higher backlog; and Asia Pacific around flat. So, to answer your question very directly that’s kind of where we are and I think a 1 billion of backlog is a good number and our goal is to continue to grow that throughout this year and see if we can get a little more separation on that number between now and this time next year when I’m talking to you. Katy Huberty – Morgan Stanley: And then just one follow-up on the services margin. There’s obviously some significant pension cost, headwinds, given the people intensity of that business. But are there other things going on underneath the pension cost that can drive expansion i.e. the predictive services that you mentioned? Does that actually lower the cost of service, so that you can get margins up in that side of business [ph]?

William Nuti

Management

It does look – at the end of the day; two things will drive service margins that are fairly pragmatic. One is if things break less, so quality means a lot with respect to our products. If things break less, you need to dispatch fewer people to fix them. And the second is remote diagnostics and remote resolution, predictive gives us the ability to remotely diagnose problems before they’re going to happen and to be better prepared to make a much more efficient dispatch on a product. So, to the degree that predictive will allow us to have the right part always, with the right person always at the right place because we’re predicting the failure versus reacting to failure that will drive out cost. Over the several years, we still see margin expansion opportunities in the services business not any less equivalent to the kinds of margin expansion we’ve seen or experienced the last four to five years. So, we remain encourage about that business. John wants to make a comment.

John Bruno

Management

Yes, Katy, one thing that I’d add in the predictive piece is that in our trial, the one thing that’s different about how we’re approach predictive is, is we’re not doing predictive in the case of something comes up. We sense that it needs to be replaced; we dispatch a tech to fix it. We’re doing it on the next call. So, what’s that allowing us to do is just drive better services absorption and doing a preventive maintenance repair on a potential other calls. The combination of those things is what allows us to focus on margin expansion, and then of course continuous improvement on cost management. That has been the area in which we focus. It is a big, big part of our business and it drives a lot of cost and we have been very, very focus on ensuring that we continuously improve on that year-on-year. Katy Huberty – Morgan Stanley: Okay, that makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Gil Luria from Wedbush Securities. Your line is open. Gil Luria – Wedbush Securities: Yes, thank you. First, on the backlog of a $1 billion, how much was it at the end of 2010? How much were orders up 2010 versus 2009?

William Nuti

Management

Orders were up in ‘10 about 11% over ‘09 in aggregate deal, and backlog was up 6% year-on-year as well. Gil Luria – Wedbush Securities: And then in the DVD business, it sounds like you have some pretty exciting plans for it for this year. But up until now it’s come in a lot less than you’d expected it in terms of revenue and certainly, the profitability drag has been bigger than you’ve expected and the timeline to breakeven gotten push out. If we’re nine months from now, 10 months from now and you’re looking into 2012 and you still think there’s going to be a $0.10 to $0.15 loss in 2012, would you continue to invest in this business?

William Nuti

Management

I think we would make different decisions, Gil, and we have plenty of options. Gil Luria – Wedbush Securities: Got it. Then last question is judging by your guidance for NPOI and adjusted earnings per share; are you accounting for the buyback in your earnings per share guidance? Do you still plan to spend all $250 million this year?

William Nuti

Management

We are not accounting for any buyback in the current guidance and we are going to start getting back into the market when the window is up, I think, in a few days. In terms of how much will actually do this year, Gil, will depend upon market conditions and candidly ongoing assessment of how we can best return value to you. Gil Luria – Wedbush Securities: Sounds good, thank you.

William Nuti

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Matt Summerville of KeyBanc. Your line is open. Matt Summerville – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Hey, two questions, Bill. First, on the 4% to 6% expectation for the Financial Services going forward segment in 2011, can you give a little more color? Kind of back to Katy’s question on the anticipated growth rates by region? I mean there’s a lot of talk about China and India and all that growth in those emerging markets, and Asia just hasn’t put up positive organic comps for the last few quarters.

William Nuti

Management

Yes, I think the way it will breakout for us, and again, we’ve moved to a – we’re moving to a line of business format now, so I’m shifting gears here a little bit but I’m going to go back to the 10 format for you Matt, just to give you some color. So, in the Americas, we expect that business to be up a bit year-on-year. We had a flattish to down year in 2010 because a lot of the large banks that were rolling out deposit were closing down those programs. But we were, I should say, we did a good job in the fourth quarter of winning some significant deals from banks that we’ve done a little less business with on the deposit side over the last year that will help us this year, big banks. And then we expect the mid-size regional, who are already beginning to get more active and if they pickup. So, I think the U.S. will be up slightly year-on-year. Europe will be the same story, up slightly year-on-year; probably with a slightly better mix. Last year, we had a big emerging market mix in that number in Europe. And then Turkey had – it was up 88% year-on-year. I mean that’s probably won’t be repeated and we’re seeing some of the more mature markets with replacement cycles coming due, and Asia Pacific will be up. We’re making investments there as well. The one market that will probably change the game a little bit for us and will be the bundled into the Americas number will be Brazil, and Brazil will be a big growth year for us. Matt Summerville – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Thank you for that color. And then just one follow-up question on the Entertainment business, I think it was maybe John’s prepared remarks talking about needing to relocate 1,600 of the machines. I guess if the thought is this aggregate market opportunity is in the tens of thousands of machines across the U.S., why the need to relocate 20% of your install base? And I guess is the year-end number you’re shooting for then, John, 11,000 total kiosks? Am I understanding that right?

John Bruno

Management

Matt, you got it right. Let me back up. So, you got the end question correct on the numbers and let me give you some color on your question. So, the net of it is that over 18 months, we opened up 8,000 stores and 4,000 this past year. We were very aggressive in our first year march, and we trialed and tested a bunch of locations that just did not show up to have the foot traffic and the rental volume that we wanted the machines that we expected to in our plan. We have a very rigorous expectation step for these machines as they grow. As we’ve explained in previous calls, machines ramp with maturity and overtime. And so, when we went back and look at where we’re at, we did a full stop and said, “Look, the most important thing that we can do is optimize our network and ensure that the bottom performing machines, if we cannot get them to the revenue profile that we want, we redeploy them to the pipeline of opportunities that we now can.” And so, we made the conscious decision to do that. We thought it was right to do overall for modeling the business. We also thought it was the right thing to do in optimizing our capital outlay because it allows us to redeploy capital that we’ve already put out in the marketplace. Now, there’s some incremental installation cost there, but it’s far less than building a machine for new market. So, we basically backed up and said, “Do we think that this bottom 20% of the market can get there?” And we said you know what we can be better if we place them against our pipeline faster, we can better improve our ramps. So, that’s how we thought about it. And that’s how we addressed it.

William Nuti

Management

The only other remark I’ll make is we learned a valuable lesson in density matters. So, some of these locations are locations where we’re not planning on any significant density in around smaller retail partners, and we do have retail partners right now that are doing really well. I mean we have a number of partners that where the ramp is terrific and candidly, they need a second machine in those locations. And some of those 1,600 will go to helping these locations are candidly are over-utilized or under-resourced. So, a little bit more color for you there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Kartik Mehta from Northcoast Research. Your line is open. Grant [ph] – Northcoast Research: Good afternoon. This is Grant in for Kartik. I appreciate the color on the total orders you mentioned. I think you said that total orders were up 11% over 2009. So, I was wondering if you could give some commentary on the growth rates and ATM spend versus retail spend in 2010?

William Nuti

Management

I’ll give you qualitative comments on that. We had a very robust year in retail. In fact, retail orders in the fourth quarter were up, I believe, 26% just in the fourth quarter. So, we had an extremely robust year. And I would say financial services were average. I think – as I said earlier in the U.S., things were a bit muted because of the large deposit automation rollouts slowing down for big banks. But on an overall basis, I’d say pretty good when you look at the global numbers. So, for financial services, I think we’ll perform at or above benchmark when we you look at the industry; and for retail, well above benchmark. And just to give you the numbers right, we had 32% growth in orders in Q4; 26% growth on the year for retail. Grant [ph] – Northcoast Research: Okay, thanks. And then the next-generation, the SDM, it seems like a very interesting technology. I was wondering just how many financial institutions in the U.S. have inquired about that technology, just trying to gauge the interest there.

William Nuti

Management

There’s a lot of interest. I mean there’s no technology in the market like SDM today. Just to put this in perspective for you. When deposit automation first came out in the market, most vendors offered a dual module solution. One module accepted cash, another module accepted checks. Then the next generation was a one module solution that accepted cash and check, but not at the same time and only in a specific orientation that you have to place them into the machine. This new technology, which only NCR offers is a single module, bunch note and check meaning you could put checks and notes in any orientation in a single bunch, and the ATM accepts them all at the same time and reorients checks and cash and reads them regardless of whether you put them right side up, upside down, et cetera. This technology is only available today from NCR. It has been candidly very well received in the market. I think you saw the comments made by Wells Fargo in Q4 in some trade magazines, and obviously the Win-a-Chase [ph] was a big win for us that were largely driven by the advancements of SDM. And clearly, this technology is going to be of interest in the mid-sized banks because as large banks roll it out, you can’t fall behind large banks in terms of competitive advantage where the two-module solution, if you will, because of the speed issue and the convenience issue when a large bank around the corner may offer a one module solution. So, that just gives you a little bit more color. Grant [ph] – Northcoast Research: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Paul Coster of JPMorgan. Your line is open. Maria [ph] – JPMorgan: Thank you for taking my question. This is Maria on behalf of Paul. A couple of questions. So, in the beginning of the call you mentioned that you won market share both domestically and internationally. I was wondering what is responsible for the market share gains. I’m assuming domestically the SDM technology, but what aided the market share internationally?

William Nuti

Management

New products. We have some new products in the cash dispenser technology that we rolled out, that we made available to customers for example in Southeast Asia as well as other markets around the world, and of course, Brazil. Given our investments we made there about two years ago that are now mature and have allowed us to play a much bigger role in the Brazil marketplace. As I said earlier, Brazil orders were up over 100%, to be specific they were up 116% year-on-year in Brazil and I think it’s the combination of SDM, new innovations in cash dispensing technology in Brazil along with investments we’ve made in sales around the world to sellout out sales structure in other markets. Maria [ph] – JPMorgan: Okay, thank you. And then going back to the guidance for cost reductions between $200 million and $300 million over the next three years, could you talk a little bit about where exactly that’s expected to come from. And then related to that, just the way that you view commodity prices and their effects on input cost and consequently margins going forward? Thank you.

John Bruno

Management

Yes. So, on the $200 million to $300 million of cost, we attempted to lay that out as part of analyst day and we talked about the fact that 50% was off to the bottom line and 50% reinvested back in the business. I link to think of it as a combination of services, operations, primarily. So, it’s about 70% of those cost savings come from those two groups and the rest from all of the infrastructure function and some of the engineering programs. So, it’s widespread. It’s part of our continuous improvement program, but it’s primarily in ops and services.

William Nuti

Management

And then I think your second question was or the related question was with respect to commodity prices. I think so far, so good is what I’d say. We have not experienced significant commodity price, changes on our products now. We also have the benefit of having a very global supply chain, where we have plans in Budapest, in Manaus, here in the U.S. in Columbus, in Beijing and in India. So, we have a worldwide network that drives significant risk aversion for us when it comes to that meaning we can get the materials at the lowest possible cost for the products we’re building for local markets in local markets. That doesn’t mean that as commodity prices rise and if they rise significantly, we won’t be impacted. We could very well be impacted, but as we sit here today, so far, so good.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Saloio from Sidoti. Your line is open. Michael Saloio – Sidoti & Company: Hi, thanks for taking my question. I’m curious on the retail sales expectations, the 2% to 4% next year. That sounds a little bit conservative to me, if orders were up 26% year-on-year in the fourth quarter or I’m sorry, year-on-year for 2010. I guess what’s causing you to be little bit conservative there?

William Nuti

Management

Well, there’s a – a big component of that number is services. And services are going to grow in the low single digits in retail. So, it does impact what you might and we think is solution growth; hardware, software, professional services quite a bit because about 50% plus of the retail business is services. The other point I’d make is while we had great growth in orders on the retail side, we also had a great year in revenue on the retail side. So, our backlog coming into the year is actually slightly down in retail versus that of last year. It’s not down tremendously, but it’s down enough where we’ve got to build that backlog here in Q1 to get more comfortable around higher growth on the solutions side. Michael Saloio – Sidoti & Company: All right, great. That’s really helpful. The second question I had was on Self-Checkout. That was also growing pretty robustly, as of the third quarter. Can you give us an update as of 4Q, and is a big percentage of that order growth you’re seeing in POS still coming from Self-Checkout?

William Nuti

Management

Yes. Fourth quarter revenue growth in Self-Checkout was 38% on year-over-year basis. Annual growth, 10/9 was 43% and we had a record year and that’s just hardware. So, the numbers I’m giving you are just hardware growth. I’ve not included professional services or services in that number. That’s our best year ever in Self-Checkout revenues. And so far, we were very, very pleased with 2010 and while that’s going to be a tough compare, we’re still encouraged by the amount of business out there in this space and the expansion of Self-Checkout into new segments, you know beyond just grocery. Michael Saloio – Sidoti & Company: Very helpful, thank you.

William Nuti

Management

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s question-and-answer session.

William Nuti

Management

Thank you very much, folks and I look forward to talking to you again in April. Bye bye.