Sam Mitchell
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Simeon, please go ahead. Your line is open
Thanks, Sean. Our transformation to a service-driven business model has reached an inflection point this year with our Retail Services business generating 52% of segment adjusted EBITDA on a year-to-date basis. We expect this ongoing transformation to continue driving faster growth, higher margins and stronger returns on capital. Our exceptional Q3 results across the business reflect the continued strong momentum we have experienced this year and clearly demonstrate that our strategy is working. We saw outstanding year-over-year performance, including a 75% increase in adjusted EBITDA and 40% system-wide same-store sales growth. As COVID-19 impacts have lessened. Compared to a more normal base of Q3 of 2019, system-wide same-store sales grew 27% and adjusted EBITDA grew 35%. We anticipate continued strong cash generation to fund our long-term growth strategies and drive shareholder value. Let's turn to the next slide. As a reminder from our business update in May, we announced a realignment of our business segments to drive accelerated growth, allow for better comparability, increase transparency and improve our operational effectiveness. Our realigned segments will provide us the opportunity to better leverage resources and capabilities to execute our strategic priorities. We anticipate continuing to drive shareholder value through a disciplined capital allocation strategy. Beyond investing in high-return projects, we expect to buyback shares with our three-year $300 million share repurchase authorization and maintain a prudent capital structure at roughly 2.5x leverage. Let's move to the next slide to discuss our new segments. We have realigned the management of our business into two operating segments: Retail Services, formerly our Quick Lubes segment; and Global Products, our former International and Core North America segments. Both segments benefit from key industry drivers, including an increasing car park, expanding miles driven and growing vehicle age. Additionally, our Retail Services segment also benefits from the ongoing shift from DIY to DIFM as well as from the industry trend toward synthetics, reinforcing our transformation towards a more service-driven business. Let's turn to Slide 6. Our strategy is to transform from a product-centric to a service-driven business model. We are redeploying the cash generated by our Global Products segment to accelerate the growth of the Retail Services segment through acquisitions and company store build. Additionally, we generate sufficient free cash flow for opportunistic M-and-A and shareholder returns via dividends and share buybacks. Shift to services is expected to drive faster growth, higher margins and stronger returns. Our transformation story is now driving an acceleration in our financial results, as shown on Slide 7. The investments we have made in new store growth and acquisitions for our Retail Services business began bearing fruit in 2020 and have driven an inflection point in our growth this fiscal year. We expect our high-return investments to continue driving growth in the future. Moving into segment highlights. Let's discuss Retail Services on Slide 9. Our Retail Services segment, which focuses on preventive auto Care delivered outstanding results for the quarter. Our growth algorithm of driving same-store sales and expanding our unit count was in full effect as the segments delivered sales growth of 66% year-over-year and 56% versus Q3 of 2019. Key drivers of our top line performance were system-wide same-store sales growth of more than 40% year-over-year as well as system-wide unit growth of 10%. Our same-store sales strength was driven first by transactions. We believe that we are capturing significant market share as well as high single-digit growth rate in average ticket. Versus Q3 2019, same-store sales grew 27%; and system-wide unit growth was 16%. Adjusted EBITDA grew substantially versus last year and versus 2019 as margins benefited from fixed cost leverage. Going forward, we expect transactions and average ticket to drive annual growth of 6% to 8% in system-wide same-store sales. Combined with unit growth, sales are expected to increase 14% to 16% per year. We forecast annual EBITDA margins at or above 30%, highlighting why we remain bullish on the growth prospects for this segment. Shifting to the next slide, we can discuss Global Products, which continues to generate strong cash flow, helping to fund growth in Retail Services. I want to highlight the solid results in our Global Products segment. Sales grew 46% year-over-year, driven primarily by volume growth of 37% as well as pricing. Sales were also up in the mid-teens versus Q3 of 2019. Segment adjusted EBITDA grew in the mid to high teens compared to last year and was up 3% versus 2019. Discretionary free cash flow generation grew 20% year-over-year and was up modestly from 2019, an exceptional performance considering the raw material backdrop and highlighting the resiliency of the segment. Global Products remains on track to generate an estimated $200 million of discretionary free cash flow for fiscal 2021. We have witnessed an unprecedented increase in raw material costs as well as limitations in raw material availability over the past few quarters. We have had success passing through the earlier rounds of these cost increases as evidenced by sales growing faster than volume. However, significant cost increases announced in the past quarter are anticipated to have the biggest impact in Global Products results in Q4. We are in the process of executing further pricing actions through the balance of this calendar year. The bottom line, we believe the fundamentals of the Global Products business are solid, and expect that cost inflation is a short-term impact. Now I'll turn things over to Mary to review our financial results in more detail.