Earnings Labs

Ventas, Inc. (VTR)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 10, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ventas Q4 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Ryan Shannon, Investor Relations. You may begin.

Ryan K. Shannon

Analyst

Thanks, Tiara. Good morning and welcome to the Ventas conference call to review the Company's announcement today regarding its results for the year and quarter ended December 31, 2016. As we start, let me express that all projections and predictions and certain other statements to be made during this conference call may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. The projections, predictions and statements are based on management's current beliefs as well as on a number of assumptions concerning future events. These forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and contingencies, and stockholders and others should recognize that actual results may differ materially from the Company's expectations, whether expressed or implied. We refer you to the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and the Company's other reports filed periodically with the SEC, for a discussion of these forward-looking statements and other factors that could affect these forward-looking statements. Many of these factors are beyond the control of the Company and its management. The information being provided today is as of this date only and Ventas expressly disclaims any obligation to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in expectations. Please note that quantitative reconciliations between each non-GAAP financial measure referenced on this conference call and its most directly comparable GAAP measure as well as the Company's supplemental disclosure schedule are available in the Investor Relations section of our Web-site at www.ventasreit.com. I will now turn the call over to Debra A. Cafaro, Chairman and CEO of the Company.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Thank you, Ryan. Good morning to all of our shareholders and other participants, and welcome to the Ventas year-end 2016 earnings call. I'm delighted to be joined this morning by my Ventas colleagues as we discuss our excellent productive year, highlight our continued execution of our business plan and discuss our outlook for 2017. Our results and our 2017 expectations are completely consistent with the preliminary view we shared with you about a month ago. The Ventas Advantage of superior properties, platforms and people has enabled us to consistently deliver growth in income and outstanding performance through multiple cycles for almost two decades. Our success has been founded on solid strategic vision, innovative and rigorous execution and a stable team with the skill and the will to excel. With our commitment to diversification and balance in our high-quality portfolio, our financial strength and flexibility, and the insight to allocate capital wisely in five asset types across the capital structure, we have enjoyed an enduring advantage in value creation. These principles powered our great year in 2016 as we reinforced our position as the premier provider of capital to leading healthcare and senior living companies and university-based research institutions. They will also serve us well as we look forward to 2017, despite a changing macro environment. I am happy to share some of our important accomplishments during the year. First, we delivered 16% total return to shareholders, outperforming the S&P 500 and the REIT and healthcare REIT indices. Our 17-year compound annual return to shareholders is an exceptional 25%. During the year, we grew normalized FFO per share by 5%, at the high end of the guidance range we presented at the beginning of 2016, and we did so on an even stronger balance sheet than we expected ending the year…

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Thank you, Debbie. I am pleased to report another strong year of cash flow performance from our high-quality portfolio of healthcare, senior housing and life science research properties. Our overall same-store cash NOI increased 2.7% for the full-year 2016, right in line with our 2.5% to 3% total Company same-store guidance range. Our fourth quarter same-store NOI growth of 2.9% was also right in line with our expectations. Let me detail our 2016 performance and 2017 guidance for our portfolio at a segment level, starting with our triple-net business which accounts for 42% of our NOI. Our triple-net portfolio grew same-store cash NOI by an excellent 3.7% for the full year 2016 over 2015. In the fourth quarter, triple-net same-store cash NOI increased by 4.5%, driven principally by strong in-place lease escalations and rent reallocated to more productive assets from the Kindred LTAC lease modification agreement in Q2. Cash flow coverage in our overall stabilized triple-net leased portfolio for the third quarter of 2016, relative to the above information, was consistent with prior quarter at 1.7x. Coverage in our triple-net same-store senior housing portfolio remained at 1.3x, incorporating escalator growth for the trailing 12 months that exceeded 3%. Coverage trends in senior housing were supported by low single-digit EBITDARM growth at the asset level for the trailing 12 months. Cash flow coverage in our same-store post-acute portfolio was 1.8x. Our shareholders continue to benefit from our spin-off of the majority of our SNF assets in 2015, together with the anticipated sale of our Kindred SNF assets in 2017. We expect that the spin-off and Kindred disposals will together achieve a highly attractive blended cap rate approximating 7%. It will reduce our exposure to the skilled nursing space to only 1% of Ventas' NOI. Specialty hospital coverage declined by 10 basis…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Juan Sanabria

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

For the [indiscernible] portfolio, how are you guys thinking about the trajectory of that same-store growth? Could there be any quarters throughout 2017 where the growth goes negative but the full-year is still positive? It just looks like you've got pretty tough comps with [indiscernible] in the second half in particular and rolling the benefit of this lower Sunrise fees in the second half as well. How should we think about growth?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

For the full year, just to reinforce, we expect to grow. So the guidance of 0% to 2% is the full-year outlook. As we look at phasing, I expect that will grow throughout the year. And fairly consistently, there are puts and takes. We mentioned for example the flu season in Q1 highlighted that the occupancy challenge from that is going to affect Q1. However, for the first half we also have the carryover benefit of the management fee savings on Sunrise. So net-net-net, as we look across the quarters, we expect fairly consistent growth. No hockey stick type movements either way.

Juan Sanabria

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay. And then on the MOB platform, you guys had I think 1.2% same-store growth in 2016 and kind of 1% to 2% in 2017, which is below the kind of the typical trend we see for most MOB platforms at 2% to 3%. If you could just delve into what is driving that kind of lower growth and when should that start to reaccelerate?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

So, 1.3% was the growth last year. And if you unpack that a little bit, we had an interesting year in the sense of a significant tenant departure early in the year, then having to refill that pipeline in terms of tenancy in the back half. That's what we saw in the fourth quarter, we saw the sequential improvement and 2% growth in the fourth quarter, just in line with our expectation, and reiterating the same steady type of growth in 2017. I'd highlight we have fairly significant rolls in 2017 relative to history. So that's our challenge to meet and beat in 2017 on the top line. So that's really how I think about it. It's going to be a top line driven business but very steady and predictable.

Juan Sanabria

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay, great. And just last question for me, for hospitals, how are you guys thinking about making incremental investments with the uncertainty, Debbie, you alluded to with the potential repeal of the Affordable Care Act? Are you changing how you are underwriting or are you kind of hitting the pause button, or how are you looking at things on the hospital space at this point in time?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

We are excited about our investment in Ardent, which as Bob said is performing very well. We're executing on the game plan, which is to scale that platform as we hope to fund the acquisition of LHP in 2017. And LHP is a real gem. So I think our strategy of acquiring really high-quality assets, scaling the business, and we're very focused on executing on that this year. And in addition, we have said all along that we are going to be very highly selective, which we have been and we'll continue to be, but we have a gigantic secular opportunity and we will continue having conversations with people, and should there be additional opportunities that we think will create value, we will certainly pursue them. So that's where we stand on the business right now.

Juan Sanabria

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose from Citi. Your line is open.

Smedes Rose

Analyst · Smedes Rose from Citi. Your line is open

I wanted to ask you on – you mentioned Bob that Atria and Sunrise have rolled out accelerated rate increases. And I was just wondering, when you say that, does that mean that they are increasing what they normally would have done or are they impacting more customers sooner for rate increases, what does that mean exactly?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Smedes Rose from Citi. Your line is open

Sure. So as you know, Smedes, in January for most of the business, not all but most of the business, the annual rent increase for in-place residence goes out. And the point I made this year is, we had more aggressive, it would be the right word, accelerated rate increases for this year versus last year, and particularly so I'd say in the Sunrise portfolio, and Atria has historically had the same methodology but I think we saw more alignment between the two operators this year. So, strong growth and stronger than last year in terms of that rate later, which I mentioned is really important to the full year revenue number.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Smedes Rose from Citi. Your line is open

And I think one of the real benefits that Bob has brought to our senior housing business in working with our care providers is really understanding pricing and where we're making money and making sure we're pricing appropriately for the care and the home that seniors are receiving, and so really deconstructing what the pricing should be and matching it with the services that are being provided and the quality of the residence that's being provided. So, double-clicking, triple-clicking into pricing and making sure that we are matching pricing with needs and services.

Smedes Rose

Analyst · Smedes Rose from Citi. Your line is open

Okay. And then just on the supply as you break out in your supplement, it continues to kind of tick up a little bit sequentially. Do you feel like 2017 is a peak year in terms of construction, you mentioned that you're seeing some slowdown in starts, or kind of maybe a little more color on that?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Smedes Rose from Citi. Your line is open

Sure. So let me start with deliveries first. And so, we saw elevated deliveries really in the second half, beginning in the second half principally of last year, and we expect that to continue to increase in terms of new deliveries in 2017 versus 2016. At the same time, when you think about new starts, we've seen through the NIC data that for two quarters now for our trade areas we've had 5% construction to inventory, so level amounts in both quarters. And as we look at the data, we said, some early signs perhaps that that new starts may be slowing. And so that gives us some hope about that, but the delivery certainly in 2017 will be elevated even versus 2016 levels.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Michael Carroll

Analyst · Michael Carroll from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

I know, Bob, in your prepared remarks you kind of talked about the LTAC portfolio and Kindred's plans to mitigate the new patient criteria. Can you explain how they plan on mitigating some of that weakness?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Michael Carroll from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

I'll take that, Michael. So as we talked about before, Kindred spent a year or two preparing to move into patient criteria, which Select Medical, another LTAC provider, went on successfully almost a year prior. And so Kindred was highly prepared to make this transition. And essentially, Kindred has been adopting a strategy of really identifying patients who are eligible for LTAC reimbursement as well as developing a strategy where they can care profitably for what are called site-neutral patients. So, I have every confidence that Kindred will be able to go into criteria in accordance with its expectations and work through the reimbursement and mitigate some of those impacts as we look to the back half of 2017. So, that's a shorthand way to describe a very complex transition.

Michael Carroll

Analyst · Michael Carroll from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. And then real quick on the coverage, I guess that 1.9 or 1.8 now, I mean how much further should we expect that to drop as these mitigations kind of take hold?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Michael Carroll from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Right. I mean, what we've talked about in the past is, over time we would expect it to be maybe 20 basis points, 10 to 20 basis points, all else equal, but there will be a trough and then of course they'll elevate out of that in the back half of 2017 and into 2018. So, in and around that neighborhood, and again, very expected I guess and that we have confidence in Kindred's ability to execute and we have good long-term lease arrangements with them as we go through the transition.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Steve Sakwa

Analyst · Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open

I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about Wexford, and it sounds like you've got some robust development opportunities there. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about the deal, what's gone well, maybe what have been some of the challenges, and maybe talk a little bit more about the returns and the opportunities on the development front?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open

Sure. First of all, we're very excited to be in this business with the university-based R&D tenants, and it's UPenn Medical, it's Yale, it's Duke, Wake Forest, really leading institutions who account for 10% of university-based R&D spending in the U.S. And I think the opportunity – and also Wexford is the name in this business, so being partnered with them I think is a real advantage – and the business opportunity is really very much like the MOB opportunity. For example, which is to say we have these big institutions, they have a lot of demands on their capital, and they don't need to own or build all of their real estate. And so, we have this great nucleus of assets now, we have a great development partner who is renowned among the universities for what they do, and the business plan is to scale that platform by doing more business with the universities who are already in our tenant base and to do business with additional leading R&D universities, very simple. And what's exciting about this acquisition is that, A, the assets we acquired are excellent and are performing well, and then B, the demand for what we're doing is very strong. And so, we see additional follow-on opportunities in the pipeline with one very well-known university, we also as Bob said have green-lighted a couple of other projects, one adjacent to UPenn in downtown Philadelphia, another one related to WashU, and the pipeline is very robust. And so, we think this can be a great channel for growth for us. It's really come in sort of fast and furious and our job is to make sure we're doing good underwriting and that we're available to build this as a real growth opportunity for the Company. So, we're excited about it.

Steve Sakwa

Analyst · Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open

And could you provide any parameters around sort of unlevered development yields in this business?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open

Of course it always depends on the amount of pre-leasing, et cetera, and what the credit quality is, things like that. But in general, we'd…

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open

7% to 9%.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open

We'd be looking at 7% to 9% yields.

Steve Sakwa

Analyst · Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your line is open

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open.

Nick Ullico

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

Just I guess first off on , Bob, going back to the senior housing operating guidance this year, I know you gave some detail on how to think about occupancy and labor expenses. Is it possible to get a little bit more of a breakout for the same-store revenue growth versus the same-store expense growth?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

For 2017 specifically in terms of the outlook?

Nick Ullico

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

Yes.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

Sure. Yes, let me unpack that a little bit. In terms of occupancy, we finished the fourth quarter about 120 basis points down year-on-year. Our expectation as we come into the first quarter as I mentioned is with the flu and with these new deliveries that that gap would widen. I would put that, that versus prior year, I would put that in the 200 basis points down range. At the same time, really importantly, the pricing that we expect to see if we delivered REVPOR of 4%, I think given that we were more accelerated in our rate letters this year, we expect to see something north of that in terms of rate. And that's not, to say it again, because of the wage pressure in the 4% to 5%, that's for labor I should say, that 4% to 5%. Total cost will be below that growth rate as we drive efficiency and utilities and things like that. So that's the algorithm net-net-net to get us down to the 0% to 2% outlook.

Nick Ullico

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

Okay, that's helpful. And then going back to Ardent, can we get a feel for the ultimate ACA benefit that they've gotten? I mean, if we look at the public hospital operators, it's been between around 5% to as high as 15% as EBITDA benefit for operators in 2016. Do you have a sense for where Ardent would fall in that range?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

I do, and if you look at Ardent pro forma with LHP, they will be in six states as I mentioned. Only two of those are Medicaid expansion states. Our general view is that the potential impact on the companies as a whole would potentially, assuming no mitigation, be less than the potential synergies from the transaction. And so we have a built-in buffer there as well as obviously as a landlord we have over 3x coverage. But just at the operating level, we think that what we're doing is really smart and we have a built-in cushion there should there be any impact from a change to the Affordable Care Act. I do think it's interesting, and I caution investors not to equate equity operator prices with the reliability of lease streams, but I would note that if you look at like an HCA for example, their stock price was $66 last year at this time, it's $84, $83 to $84 now. I mean, I think there is recognition that these good companies will continue to be good and what these excellent operators do over the decades is they know how to hold the levers in this business to create positive cash flow, and that's what we would expect Ardent to do with a very seasoned CEO that's been through this for three decades. And so, we feel good about it.

Nick Ullico

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

That's helpful, Debbie. Just I guess one last question is, it sounds like there is some acquisition opportunities heating up a bit in hospitals but more so on the non-profit side. Is there any opportunity for you and Ardent to participate in that?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

Well, good. I mean, we're really focused on closing LHP and are excited about that because it's a gem, and what comes with it, as you point out, are these really valuable not-for-profit relationships with academic medical centers and other large not-for-profits like a sanction. And so, that is one incremental step toward this gigantic opportunity. And again, we'll continue to have conversations, but our focus right now is really closing LHP and then we'll take it from there.

Nick Ullico

Analyst · Nick Ullico from UBS. Your line is open

All right. Thanks everyone.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Vincent Chao

Analyst · Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Maybe just to stick with the last line of questioning, Debbie, maybe if you could expand a little bit, you mentioned some cushion at the operating level beyond just the coverage. Exactly what are you referring to there, like what are some of the things that can help offset some of the potential ACA pressures?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Should there be ACA pressures, which honestly I think there may be a lot of easier policy priorities to accomplish in the near term, but should there be something, I think they will be first of all pushed out, and secondly, we have – we announced that there would be significant synergies in the merger between the two companies, which again only have two of the six states in Medicaid expansion. And so, we think that's more than enough cushion should there be impact from an ACA repeal. But the key thing is, what is the replacement? The replacement may be fine, and so it may have no impact. The key thing is, what is the replacement, and of course we would expect that that replacement would not take effect for one to multiple years.

Vincent Chao

Analyst · Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Okay, just trying to clarify that point. And then just on the hospital opportunity, which you are very happy with the Ardent performance and still looking to scale that business, I guess from a pipeline perspective given some of the uncertainties out there, have the pool of potential acquisitions changed at all on the hospital side or are you still seeing the same level of potential?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

As we said, we're going to be very selective and we're going to play at that top percent of operators and assets that have significant market share, that have quality outcomes, that are efficient, et cetera, and so those conversations will continue over time and it's a really gigantic opportunity, it's a $1 trillion revenue business, the acute-care business.

Vincent Chao

Analyst · Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

But I guess have the conversations changed at all in light of some of what's going on out there with regard to policy?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Really I talked to Todd, he is here with me, and we were at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, and honestly, the hospital acute-care providers are going about their business, which is creating efficiencies, driving quality, all the things that they were doing before. And many of the changes that are in the health care system are so already embedded in what they are doing, I would say that that is really what they are focused on, execution of their business.

Vincent Chao

Analyst · Vincent Chao from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open.

Michael Knott

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

A question for you just along the lines of ACA potential repeal, can you just touch on how you think that might impact your MOB business and maybe helps us in decision-making with regards to space?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

Right. So I would say that again let me just repeat a little bit of what I said, which is that the acute-care providers are going about the business of driving efficiencies, quality, improvement, M&A, et cetera, and they are some of the biggest customers obviously in the MOB business, and we have a really high-quality portfolio that's affiliated with some of the top hospitals. And so, while uncertainty generally can delay decision-making and things like that, we may see some of that this year, I do think that we are well-positioned to continue creating stable growing cash flows in our portfolio.

Michael Knott

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

Okay, thanks. And then just on the investment side, do you mind just touching on what you're sort of seeing out there, the pulse of the investment market, any changes in cap rates or appetite, is there a slowdown because of some of the uncertainties? And then, I think Bob used the word 'discipline' with respect to your investment activity. Just curious if we could also sort of infer that 'caution' is a word that you are applying to your investment activity opportunity set just given where we're at in the cycle?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

So I think what's really interesting is that we are seeing huge continued interest at very robust pricing as I mentioned across our asset types, and it's coming from pension funds, it's coming from sovereigns, it's coming from private equity. And I think that is a sign that people value our assets and they see the big opportunity in our business. When we talk about being disciplined capital allocators, as you know, we have always been about doing things that create value for our investors and hopefully being good partners with our customers at the same time. And so, I would not conflate those two words. I think we are disciplined when we think about our cost of capital, when we think about risk-adjusted returns and when we think about what is going to create value, and that's always been a hallmark of Ventas'. And that's partly why we have such a good track record of total return, that's why we have a good track record of capital allocation and growth in income, as we take that very seriously, and we think about deals on their own and also how they affect the balance and mix in our portfolio. So, we will be disciplined, we've always been disciplined, and take all those factors into account as we continue to make investments.

Michael Knott

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

Okay, thanks. And then just one more for me if I could, and thanks for the time, on senior housing, I know you've emphasized, Bob, the strength of the rate letters that are going out and there's this kind of dichotomy between reduced occupancy but strong pricing power. Can you just talk about how long do you think that can persist, and if we look into maybe a year from now as we think about 2018 just with all the continued supply growth, deliveries in 2017 and then probably similarly high in 2018 I would argue, can you just talk about the outlook for pricing power, how long can that dichotomy between occupancy and rate growth sort of persist? Thanks.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

Sure. Good question, Michael. I keep coming back to the value proposition of senior housing and let's not forget the big picture of the cost of replicating the services that you receive in the senior housing community. It's twice as expensive to do so at home, not to mention the benefits of being in a community. And that I think is a truism every market that we go into and everything we hear. And the value-added of the services in your report highlights this, of assisted living services, the value it provides to residents. And I don't think that generally speaking [indiscernible] we priced that value necessarily to the point that we can. And so, we are seeing in 2017 the opportunity to do that. Because of the value proposition, I see the opportunity to continue to do so. I come back to the framework though of looking at the high-barrier markets where you have the demand, where you have the wealth, where you have little supply in your competition, that's the area where we have pricing power and that's where we're focused, and I think that can continue. But clearly, the supply is going to have an impact in the balance of the portfolio.

Michael Knott

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

And just a quick follow up, so in general, you think sort of stronger renewal rent prospects and then maybe weaker on the new rent side can continue for a while just given what you talked about, the value that's provided to residents, et cetera, seems like that can persist?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Your line is open

Yes. So we have not only the annual increase but also street rate. We expect to see year-over-year growth. Again, that's driven by those engine-room markets where we see nice increases, not at the level necessarily of the rate letter but still nice growth. So it's both that we see particularly in that 70% of our portfolio, that is the high barrier to entry markets.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open.

Richard Anderson

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Thank, and I know one hour is the magic number, so I'd be quick. So in your disclosure, you've had this footnote before for SHOP. It says it excludes closed units during periods of closure, which is kind of a funny way to say but I assume it's been a lot of thought put into it. What does that mean like and how substantial is that relative to the impact it might have on your growth profile in the SHOP portfolio?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

I mean, it's very minimal. It's like, for example, if there was a fire and the building was closed down or a flood or something like that, that type of thing, very minimal.

Richard Anderson

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Okay then, short answer is good with me. And then for 2017, you pointed out Canada was a leader at 7%-plus, or whatever it was, for 2016, what do you think that Canada/U.S. breakdown might be for SHOP in 2017?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

First of all, thrilled about the Canada performance, it grew mid-single for the year, it's great, 7% in the fourth. And if you look at occupancy, pushing 95%. And so I'm just sounding like a broken record here, but the opportunity as we think about 2017 is very much with a 95% occupied building to get some pricing.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Plus they have good hockey.

Richard Anderson

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Hockey, yes, really. All right.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Yes, it's really hockey. So it's going to drive Canada next year, or this year, 2017.

Richard Anderson

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

So Canada will again be a leader you think?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Yes.

Richard Anderson

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

To the degree it was this time? I mean that was pretty substantial.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

It will be a nice grower, no doubt, it will contribute nicely.

Richard Anderson

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Could that mean that U.S. could be a negative number?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Again, we have a range. So at 0% to 2%, you could probably back into math to suggest that to be true.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Multiple permutations.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

So that's where you are in the range.

Richard Anderson

Analyst · Richard Anderson from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open

Okay, sounds good. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

So thinking about fourth quarter earnings, FFO was largely in line, FAD was a little bit lower than expected, and it looked like that was on CapEx spending. And I know you had warned us about this last quarter, but it still seemed to come in a little bit higher at around $45 million a quarter. So, should we expect that to be a run rate through 2017 or does that moderate or increase?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

So FAD, relative to what we put out a month ago, in the range in terms of dollars, I think we're about $1 million below the $1.27 billion of our outlook, and that was really CapEx timing as much as anything. I would step back and say, in terms of FAD CapEx focus areas, MOB is one area of focus in particular, but I wouldn't infer anything kind of beyond that.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

Then what we should be thinking like on average per quarter?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

If you look at the reconciliation for 2017…

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

We have about $125 million of what I call FAD CapEx in the year. It tends to be more back half weighted, typically the fourth quarter, to ramp a little bit in the fourth quarter. But again, it depends a little bit, Chad, just on what's going on in terms of the projects. You could have a [indiscernible], so it would be lumpy for example. So, there is an extreme seasonality to that number.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

Okay, thanks. And then just speaking of pricing growth, you mentioned pushing aggressive pricing on the SHOP portfolio. What's the difference in pricing between at 70% of SHOP that seem to be in high barrier entry markets and the 30% that's facing competition?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

In terms of absolute REVPOR…

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

Again, I think the pricing is really an enhanced way to appropriately have the operators be paid for the care and services that they are providing and to match pricing with the value that the families and the seniors are getting, and we are doing that more effectively I would say in 2017. And Bob will take the rest of that.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

If you look at the 70% versus the 30% at REVPOR, the 70% equilibrium markets, there's not a significant difference on REVPOR. What's different is the growth rate between the two.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

So pretty [indiscernible] what you're saying is, pricing in a more competitive market, that growth is going to be smaller than the high-barrier market, is that right?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

Yes, exactly.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

Well said, yes.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

Okay, all right. And just one quick update, the Kindred portfolio sales, I think you left most of that in Kindred hand. Can you give us an update of where you are in that process?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is open

I can and would encourage you to listen to Kindred's call later because they'll give a more fulsome update because they are on point there. Our understanding is that it's going well and there's a lot of interest. As I talked about earlier, that there is a lot of interest in all of our asset classes and this would presumably be no exception. And so, we are anticipating on balance a second half execution of that transaction.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

John Kim

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

So last year in your supplemental, you broke down a sizable revenue enhancing CapEx figure of $110 million, and this year that figure is not in your supplemental. Do you still have this program or is it just now reclassified somewhere else?

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

We absolutely still have the program, John. We changed a little bit the presentation to really highlight on that one page, I'll call it the FAD CapEx breakdown, sustaining CapEx, versus the prior pages which demonstrate the development and redevelopment. So really just tried to differentiate and distinguish the different types of spend. But the program is very important and a huge priority for us. As we've said, in fact we're going to…

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Accelerate it, yes.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Increase our amount of spending from $140 million to $300 million, round number, 2016 to 2017. So it's key, it's a core priority.

John Kim

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

And so can you just remind us or maybe provide some color on what constitutes a redevelopment, and also if you have a projected yield on your existing program?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

If we have a what, I'm sorry?

John Kim

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

A projected yield.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. So in those numbers, we're talking about this selective redevelopment and development program we talked about, we would include within that ground-up development like our Class A downtown San Francisco medical office building, it would be our newly opened senior living community, Foster City in Northern California, it would include any life sciences, as we mentioned potential developments with UPenn or WashU that we talked about. And it would include some redevelopments that we've done over time where there are significant impacts on the community where we for example add a life guidance or memory care unit or build another wing or convert parts of the building to other uses, those types of things. And we tend to, as John said, we tend to look at 7%-plus returns depending again on the profile of the tenancy, the pre-leasing, the credit quality in the ground-up developments. I mentioned the San Francisco MOB, we've got AA rated credit, it's substantially pre-leased building. That's one type of yield. As we're doing these redevelopment projects, I'd say high single-digits, low double-digits unlevered expectations for returns.

John Kim

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay, that's helpful. So the redevelopments are mostly additive, not just enhancing existing units?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

I mean, principally they are redos of things or additions of things, yes.

John Kim

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Got it, okay.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

That generate a return.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

That generate a return, yes.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

That generate returns as distinguished from the FAD CapEx which are profit sustaining type initiatives, roofs and boilers and things like that.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yes.

John Kim

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

And Debbie, you mentioned briefly the share prices of some of the public operators. I'm just wondering if you find it preferable for your operating partners to be public or private.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

We are agnostic. We want our operators to be great at what they do, leaders in their markets, provide good quality care, and operate with a lot of integrity and compliance. So that's what we like. And we have the lion's share of our portfolio as we've reshaped our business over the last couple of years, is with those leading operators. So we have a few more questions. I'm sorry, but we have to hustle, we have a few more questions that we still want to take, John. We'll be happy to…

John Kim

Analyst · John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Sure, no problem.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open.

Jordan Sadler

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

In terms of your acquisition discussion and guidance in terms of deploying $1 billion or so in 2017, you're focused on life science and the acute-care hospital pipeline. So should we expect the life science deployments principally to be through development, is that right?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

Yes.

Jordan Sadler

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

So, no new really stabilized property acquisitions there outside of Wexford?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

There could be – again, when we give the $1 billion, it's pretty straightforward. We've got $700 million that we are funding on the Ardent acquisition of LHP. Then we have $300 million of other, some acquisitions of stabilized assets, some are developments of life science that we've talked about. And so…

Jordan Sadler

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

I guess my question is, as you are looking out and pursuing and underwriting transactions, I'm just curious what your interest level is, where the best risk-adjusted opportunity is among the segments that you are invested in?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

Yes, I think the best risk-adjusted segments are the areas we have identified for capital allocation, which will be really high-quality hospitals, definitely growth in the life sciences segment, principally by development but also by potential acquisitions, and follow-on opportunities, and customer oriented activities. That's where we have been focusing the last couple of years and that's where we'll continue to focus and that's where we think we have the best return, in addition to of course the development/redevelopment that we just talked about.

Jordan Sadler

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

Okay. And so, on the other side, the trimming that you're doing, which is also identified, but there's a couple of hundred million that's not necessarily, your trimming could be done presumably out of the MOB and senior housing portfolios, as you've done…?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

I think the trimming – so we are talking, I think it's important to identify this capital recycling that we are doing in 2017 of $900 million of dispositions and then $1 billion of investments. So the $900 million straightforward to, it's the Kindred $700 million and then some dribs and drabs $88 million we just closed on some senior housing with a customer that was a good mutually beneficial deal. So that covers about $800 million of it, and the rest is kind of dribs and drabs to get to the $900 million, and I've already gone over the $1 billion. So that's the capital recycling that we've talked about that really is value creating.

Jordan Sadler

Analyst · Jordan Sadler from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Raskin from Barclays. Your line is open.

Joshua Raskin

Analyst · Josh Raskin from Barclays. Your line is open

Thanks for fitting me in at the end. I guess I'll just ask a quick one. Just getting back to the slowing of new construction, I wonder is there specific data on maybe markets or how long that takes to get the deliveries, et cetera, just when you would expect that to start showing up in terms of results.

Robert F. Probst

Analyst · Josh Raskin from Barclays. Your line is open

I'd say, one thing to point to is the data we referenced that could suggest some slowing is NIC data, where if you look both for IL and AL at starts, in both cases they are the slowest that we have seen since 2012 to 2014 in that range. So, it's a couple of data points. Anecdotally, around financing would be another one, difficulty in financing, difficulty of lining up construction at a reasonable cost, et cetera, et cetera. So those are some of the facts that would indicate it may be slowing, but it's still early to call that.

Joshua Raskin

Analyst · Josh Raskin from Barclays. Your line is open

Yes, I didn't know if you were seeing anything in your specific markets anecdotally more than the broad NIC data of just saying, okay, here are the markets, and then I didn't know if the $88 million of divestitures, maybe that was related to what you're seeing in certain markets, et cetera.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Josh Raskin from Barclays. Your line is open

The divestitures were really with one of our customers, their underperforming assets. So we were able to sell those at a fixed yield and increase their cash flow and improve our portfolio. So, everybody was happy. So that was something that was a unique sort of solution that worked for both companies.

Joshua Raskin

Analyst · Josh Raskin from Barclays. Your line is open

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Todd Stender

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Thanks for hanging in there.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Likewise, for everybody.

Todd Stender

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Is Todd Lillibridge there? MOB question for him.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

He is.

Todd Stender

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

All right. Same-store NOI growth in MOB has picked up a little bit in Q4, got you over 2%. But your outlook for this year would only top out at 2%. I just want to see if you can go through some of the drivers behind your growth expectations. That's part one. And part two is, maybe just touch on the stuff you sold in Q4.

Todd W. Lillibridge

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

As Bob mentioned, we were within our guidance this past year at 1.3%, at the midpoint roughly, and as we have said, 2017 guidance again really at that 1% to 2% range. And you are correct, we did finish the Q4 on a year-over-year basis at 2%. Our leasing and therefore occupancy was up in Q4 where we got to 92%. So we see a steady year. But again, as Bob mentioned, we do have a bit of a peak in terms of overall renewal activity that we're going to be faced with here in 2017. So, we factored that all in, and again, we feel very comfortable with our guidance for 2017 between 1% and 2%.

Todd Stender

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Great, thanks. And then how about what you sold in Q4, any characteristics we can point to where there's single tenant or smaller buildings?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Non-strategic assets that we thought we got a really good price for and that were more valuable to the tenant user than they were to us. So, good transaction there.

Todd Stender

Analyst · Todd Stender from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Tayo Okusanya

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

It's just a quick one. Just kind of given some of this recent news around Brookdale, I just wanted to, could you just talk a little bit again about if Brookdale does kind of end up in play, what rights do you have as a landlord for the company?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

Good. Okay, so Brookdale as you know is an important customer of Ventas and they are an important industry participant with 80,000 employees and 100,000 seniors that they care for every day. We have a good relationship with them. We have excellent agreements between the companies. And we continue to try to work with Brookdale, as we do with all of our customers, to continue to enhance and improve our mutual businesses.

Tayo Okusanya

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

But I guess specifically, do you have to approve a transaction or like how exactly will that look if the entire company is being sold?

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

Tayo, how long have you known us?

Tayo Okusanya

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

I'm just trying to get an answer there.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

All kidding aside, I mean we care deeply about the success of Brookdale and we will continue to try to work with them as we have with our small disposition deal that we have in the market and as we have with our other customers to try to continue making them a success.

Tayo Okusanya

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

All right, I had to give it a try.

Debra A. Cafaro

Analyst · Tayo Okusanya from Jefferies. Your line is open

Thank you. With that, I think we're going to close the call. We're going to thank everyone for their patience and we really appreciate your tuning in to hear us talk about our great year and what we hope to accomplish in 2017 on your behalf. So we look forward to seeing you and thank you again for your interest and attention.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.