Gerald Paul
Analyst · Longbow Research
Thank you, Lori, and good morning everybody. 2019 for Vishay is for the business it's an Electronic components in general has been a year of correction. Volumes were up sharply vis a vis the strong years 2017 and in particular 2018 as a consequence of the required reduction of inflated inventory levels in the supply chain. Furthermore, quite drastically reduced manufacturing volumes had a strong negative impact on our profitability. Additionally, there were temporary inefficiencies coming from the adaptation of manufacturing capacities downward quickly and massively. Vishay in 2019 achieved a gross margin of 25% of sales versus 29% in 2018. The GAAP operating margin of 10% of sales versus 16% of sales in 2018. And adjusted operating margin of 11% of sales versus 16% in prior year. GAAP earnings per share of $1.13 versus $2.24 last year and adjusted earnings per share of $1.26 versus $2.12 in 2018. The generation of free cash also in 2019 remained on a quite excellent level. We in 2019 generated free cash of $140 million, which includes taxes paid for cash repatriation of $38 million. Quarter four clearly has been disappointing. The impact of an unfavorable product mix and of various negative singularities in variable costs, led to a lower than normal contributive margin. Furthermore, other income was lower than anticipated due to exchange rates. And our normalized tax rate for 2019 was higher than expected impacting also fourth quarter. Vishay in the fourth quarter achieved a gross margin of 22% of sales, GAAP operating margin of 4% of sales, adjusted operating margin of 7% of sales, GAAP earnings per share of $0.10 and adjusted earnings per share of $0.13. Let me talk about the economic environment. The economic conditions for our industry in the course of 2019 deteriorated very substantially, driven by the normalization of lead times and the subsequent major inventory reduction in the supply chain. This for the most part concerned distribution, but also OEMs reduced inventories. The worldwide slowdown in automotive and ongoing political turbulences developed into an additional burden in the course of last year. Backlogs, substantially inflated in the course of 2017 and 2018 continued to normalize with book-to-bill ratio's much below 1. Recently, we do see a recovery of orders. Selling prices for commodity products have restarted to decline. Considering the strong slowdown of order cancellations in the fourth quarter, another substantial reduction of inventories in the supply chain during the quarter and increasing orders also from distribution, we believe that the fourth quarter represented the low point of this phase of correction. Let me talk about the regions. After a strong year, the American market softened in the fourth quarter. Sales to OEMs as well as POS of distribution were concerned, automotive and commercial aviation are weakening, where as military spending remains robust and industrial markets remain stable overall. Inventory is being burnt off by our distributors. The European business continues to be burnt by too high inventories in the supply chain as well as by a weakening of the automotive in particular of the diesel market. Despite the continued destocking in Asia, we see signs of improvement in automotive and the stabilization of the industrial and EMS segments. Asia in fact, is expected to return to more normal business levels, first, setting aside any impacts of the evolving corona crisis off course. Talking about distribution, POS of global distribution ended the year 2019 weaker than expected. It declined by 7% versus prior quarter and was 13% below prior year. POS for the full year 2019 was down versus 2018 by 10%, POS in the fourth quarter was weak versus Q3 in all geographic regions down in Europe by 6%, down in Asia by 5%, and down in the Americas by 11%. Nevertheless, distribution inventories during the fourth quarter came down again in a noticeable way by $37 million. We expect this trend to continue maybe to a lesser extent also in the first quarter. There was no further decline of inventory turns in distribution in the first quarter, turns remained at 2.4 is compared to 2.9 in prior year. The Americas showed 1.4 turns after 1.5 turns in the third quarter and 1.9 in prior year. Asia -- Asian distribution showed 3.3 turns after also 3.3 turns in Q3 and 3.7 turns in prior year. Europe had 2.9 turns after also 2.9 turns in Q3, and 3.3 turns in prior year. Orders from distribution, the fourth quarter picked up in all regions substantially, which naturally gives some confidence. Let me comment on industry segments. This continued weakness in vehicle production worldwide in particular in Europe, and there's political resistance to the diesel technologies. Nevertheless, we expect improvements in the first quarter in automotive carried by traditional cars. The industrial segment continues to show growth, but high inventories in the supply chain remain to be a problem for one or for two quarters. Basically positive developments, existing industrial automation, power transmission, robotics, oil and gas and in smart metering . In consumer white goods set a strong quarter driven by air conditioning devices and also 2020 is expected to be positive. Gaming should be strong due to the launch of the new Sony Playstation in the course of this year, there's ongoing strength of the military and medical sectors, computing is expected to see a better year in 2020 driven by growth in service. 5G continues to be a major opportunity for strong growth starting in 2020. Let me talk about Vishay's business development quarter four sales, excluding exchange rate impacts came in slightly above the midpoint of our guidance. The achieved sales of $610 million versus $628 million in prior quarter and versus $776 million in prior year. Excluding exchange rate effects, sales in Q4 were down by $17 million, or 3% versus prior quarter and down versus prior year by $160 million, or by 21%. Sales in the year 2019 were at $2,668 million versus $3,035 million in 2018, a decrease of 11% excluding exchange rate effects. Book-to-bill in the fourth quarter recovered 2.94 from 0.72 in the third quarter, mainly driven by distribution. Some detail 0.94 for distribution of the 0.55 in the third quarter. 0.95 for OEMs after 0.90, 0.95 book-to-bill for the actives after 0.6 in Q3. 0.94 for the passives after 0.83 in Q3. $1.03 book-to-bill for the Americas after 0.76 in the third quarter, 0.96 for Asia after 0.64. 0.88 in Europe after 0.78. Backlog in the fourth quarter was stable at 4.5 month, which relates to actives and to passives. Cancellations were substantially reduced in Q4 and they now have a quite normal level. The price decline is back to historical rates. We hit minus 0.8% versus prior quarter and minus 3% versus prior year. Actives semiconductors be the highest share of commodities had also stronger price decline as to be expected minus 1.2% versus prior quarter, and minus 5.9% versus prior year. The passives with the highest share of specialty products at minus 0.3% price decline versus prior quarter, and minus 0.2% price decline versus prior year. Some comments on operations. In the year 2019, we were not completely able to offset the normal negative impacts of on the contributive margin by cost reduction and by innovation. In particular temporary plant inefficiencies due to capacity adaptation, burnt the variable costs. SG&A costs in Q4 came in at $94 million, slightly below expectations when excluding ex rate effects. SG&A costs for the year 2019 were $385 million, $19 million or 2% below prior year at constant exchange rates, mainly due to lower incentive compensation. Manufacturing fixed costs in the fourth quarter came in at $126 million, slightly above maybe $1 million above our expectations. Manufacturing fixed costs for the year 2019, were $509 million, $10 million or 2% above prior year at constant exchange rates impacted naturally by higher depreciation. Total employment at the end of 2019 was 22,400, 7% down from prior year, which when we were 24,115 all this of course the consequences of a broad capacity reduction. Excluding exchange rate impacts inventories in the quarter were reduced by $17 million, raw materials by $4 million, WIP and finished goods by 13 million. Inventory turns in the fourth quarter, slightly improved to 4.3 from 4.1 in prior quarter. In the year 2019 inventory is decreased by $45 million, raw materials by $29 million and WIP and finished goods by $16 million. Inventory turns for the entire year 2019 were at the good level of 4.3 slightly down from 4.5 in 2018 excluding again exchange rates. Capital spending in the year 2019 was $157 million versus $230 million in prior year close to our expectations. We spent $96 million for expansion, $16 million for cost reduction and $45 million for maintenance of business. For the current year, we expect CapEx of approximately $140 million tried in accordance with the requirements of our markets. We in 2019 generated cash from operations of $296 million, including $38 million cash taxes for cash repatriation compared to $259 million cash from operations in 2018 including $157 million cash taxes for cash repatriation. Generated last year 2000 -- in 2019 free cash of $140 million, including $38 million of cash taxes for cash repatriation compared to a free cash generation of $84 million in 2018 including $157 million cash taxes for cash repatriation. I think we can say and I'm proud to say that every time that we share also in economically softer, yes, has lift up again to its reputation as an excellent and reliable producer of free cash. Now, I come to the product lines and as Lori indicated, they are going to report separately resistors and inductors from now on and that starts with resistors. We say it's traditional and since many years steadily growing business continues to be highly profitable. Despite having been impacted negatively in 2019 by lower volume due to inventory corrections in the supply chain. With resistors we enjoy a very strong position in the auto industrial, middle and medical market segments, and we do offer virtually all resistor technologies. Sales in Q4 were $146 million down by $6 million or by 4% versus prior quarter and down by $37 million or by 20% versus prior year excluding exchange rate impacts. Sales in 2019 of $648 million were down $44 million or by 6% versus prior year. Again, excluding exchange rate impacts. The book-to-bill ratio in quarter four was 0.95 after 0.82 in prior quarter backlog increased slightly from 4.7 to 4.5 -- excuse me -- 4.5 to 4.7 month. Gross margin in the quarter came in at 24% of sales after 27% in prior quarter, low volume and inefficiencies due to capacity adaptations were burdening the results temporarily. Gross margin for the year 2019 was at a fairly good level of 28% of sales down from 33% of sales in 2018, which on the other hand was a record year supported by an inventory built into supply chain. Inventory turns in the fourth quarter were at 4.1, inventory turns for the full year at a satisfactory level of 4.1 also. After price increases in 2018, the development of ASPs returned to normal trends. We have seen for resistors minus 1% versus prior quarter and also minus 1% versus prior year. The inventory correction being over in a very foreseeable future, we expect the business to return to traditional profitability levels. Coming to inductors. The business with inductors consists of power inductors and magnetics. Our fast growing business with inductors represents one of the greatest success stories of Vishay. Exploding the growing needs for inductors in general, Vishay developed some years ago a platform of robust and efficient power inductors and leads the market technically. With magnetics, we're very well positioned in specialty businesses demonstrating steady growth since years. Sales of inductors in quarter four was $77 million, up by $3 million or 4% versus prior quarter and flat versus prior year excluding exchange rate impacts. Year-over-year sales of $299 million was virtually flat versus prior year, despite all economic headwinds in 2019. Again, I commented out exchange rate impact. Book-to-bill in Q4 was 1.05 after 0.95 in prior quarter. Backlog for inductors was at 4.7 months, same as in the third quarter. The gross margin in the quarter was at quite excellent 34% of sales up from prior quarter, which were at 32% of sales. Gross margin for the year 2019 was said again quite excellent 32% of sales, virtually on the same level as prior year. Inventory turns in the quarter were 4.8 is compared to 4.6 for the whole year. That is only modest price pressure and inductors minus 0.3% versus prior quarter, and minus 1.8% versus prior year. We continuously, and will do so also in the future expand our manufacturing capacities in particular for power inductors. Coming to capacitors. Our business with capacitors is based on a broad range of technologies with a strong position in American and European market niches. We enjoy increasing opportunities in the fields of power transmission and of e-cars namely in Asia, China. In particular, sales in the fourth quarter were at $95 million, 4% below prior quarter and 27% below prior year excluding exchange rate effects. Year-over-year capacitor sales decreased from $466 million in 2018 to $423 million in 2019 or by 7% again excluding exchange rate impacts. Book-to-bill ratio in the fourth quarter for capacitors was 0.84 after 0.76 in previous quarter, backlogs remained for capacitors at the high level of 4.1 months. The gross margin in the quarter decreased to 18% of sales after 22% in prior quarter, lower volume and an unfavorable product mix burdened the results temporarily. The gross margin for the year 2019 was a 22% of sales down from 23% in 2018. Inventory turns in the quarter increased to 3.7 as compared to 3.5 for the whole year. For capacitors, we had price increases 0.7% versus prior quarter and plus 2.5% versus prior year. I come to Opto line, Vishay business with products -- with Opto products consists of infrared emitters, receivers, sensors and couplers as well as of LEDs for automotive applications. Sales in the quarter were $51 million 1% above prior quarter, but 21% below prior year, which again excludes exchange rate impacts. Year-over-year sales with Opto products went down from $290 million to $223 million down by 22% year-over-year without exchange rate impacts. Opto was heavily burdened by inventory reductions in the supply chain. Book-to-bill in the fourth quarter was 1.11 after point 0.86 in prior quarter indicating we believe a turnaround of the business. Backlog set a very high level of 4.7 months, after 4.4 months in the third quarter. Gross margin for Opto in the quarter, was a 20% of sales after 22% in the third quarter. Gross margin for the year 2019 came at 24% of sales as compared to 35% again a record percent in the prior year. As I said, a real record for this product line. The very high inventory turns of 6.0 in the fourth quarter as compared to 5.4 in the whole year. In Opto, we have relatively stable prices vis-a-vis prior quarter, the price increases of 2.3% vis-a-vis a prior year, there was a price reduction of 1.7%. We remain to be confident for this line growing steadily and also profitably, mainly in the segment of sensors. Coming to diodes. Diodes for Vishay represents broad commodity business here we are the largest supplier worldwide. Vishay offers virtually all technologies as well as the most complete product portfolio. The business has a very strong position in the automotive and industrial market segments and keeps growing steadily and profitably since years. After two record years, the volume in diodes in 2019 suffered the most of all divisions from the inventory reduction in the supply chain. Sales in the quarter, a $123 million on the level of prior quarter, but 30% below prior year, which exclude exchange rate effects. Year-over-year sales of diodes decreased from $713 million to $557 million a decline of 21% without exchange rate impacts. The book-to-bill ratio of 0.88 in the quarter there was a definitive improvement of the 0.57, which we have seen in quarter three. The worst appears to be behind us. The backlogs reduced slightly to a still high level of 4.7 months from 4.9 months in prior quarter. The gross margin in the quarter came in at 16% of sales as compared to 17% in the third quarter. The gross margin in the year 2019 was at 20% of sales on from 28% in prior year. A quite enormous drop of volume in combination with some manufacturing inefficiencies and a strong ASP decline especially in the fourth quarter were the reason. Inventory turns remained at the very satisfactory level of 4.4 on the level of the whole year. The ASP decline for diodes has accelerated in the fourth quarter and maybe I've seen minus 1.4% versus prior quarter and minus 7.3% versus prior year. We are confident that this important business for Vishay, we'll come back to historical volumes and also profitabilities whenever the inventory in the supply chain will have reached normal levels and this would be in a foreseeable future. Coming finally to MOSFET. Vishay continues to be one of the market leader in MOSFET transistors. MOSFET over the last years developed a strong and growing position in automotive, which is expected to provide a successful future for this product line. Also MOSFET currently see some impact of the destocking activities worldwide, but in a milder form than other commodity products. Sales in the quarter were 116 million, 8% below prior quarter and 16% below prior year without exchange rate impacts. Year-over-year sales with MOSFET decreased from $548 million to $509 million by 6% without exchange rates. Book-to-bill ratio in quarter four was 0.94 after 0.54 in Q3. Apparently the business is on the way back to normal. Backlogs continue to be on a high level, 4.2 months as compared to 4.0 month in the third quarter. Gross margin in the quarter was at 24% of sales, no change from prior quarter. The gross margin in the year 2019 came in at 25% of sales, a slight reduction from 27% in 2018 due to lower volume. Inventory turns in the quarter were 3.7 as compared to 4.1 for the entire year. Price decline for MOSFET has accelerated, minus 2.5% versus prior quarter and minus 6.1% versus prior year. We are confident to be -- we continue to be confident for the future of this line of MOSFETs, in particular driven by automotive applications, and we continue to expand internal and foundry capacities. Let me summarize. After a record year 2018 our business in 2019 has entered a phase of massive correction, which principally was not a complete surprise given the cyclical nature of electronics. Now there are clear signs that the downtrend of orders and sales is behind us and we believe that Q4 has been the low point for our business. The inventory at distribution is still relatively high and will moderate therefore, the expected recovery for another quarter, another quarter or two. Whereas the automotive market segment globally still will need some time to get back to historical strength, we see other fees that are encouraging. For the mid and long term phase, no reason to doubt the growth potential of electronics. Vishay is a very well established broad line supplier will benefit from all moves towards electrification going forward. Our increased machine capacities will enable us to participate in the next upturn to the full extent. We are implementing our announced restructuring and rejuvenation program and expect an annual reduction of personnel fixed costs by $15 million when it will be fully implemented by the first quarter of the year 2021. For the first quarter, we guide to a sales range of $605 million to $645 million at the gross margin of 24% of sales at the midpoint. The guidance excludes potential impacts from the rapidly evolving coronavirus crisis. Thank you very much.