Gerald Paul
Analyst · Bank of America
Thank you, Lori, and good morning everybody. The year 2015 for Vishay, like for the entire electronic components industry has been disappointing. An ongoing weakness in several key markets and the growing skepticism concerning China, burdened the economy environment substantially. As a consequence, Vishay in 2015 remains behind its plans towards profitability and also behind the prior year. We achieved the gross margin in the year of 24% of sales and adjusted operating margin of 8% of sales, adjusted earnings per share of $0.72 and GAAP earnings per share of a loss minus $0.73. We generated free cash of $100 million in the year, lower than in prior year's but still quite respectable as we think. The fourth quarter did not represent surprises, gross margin came in at 23% of sales, adjusted operating margin were at 7% of sales, adjusted earnings per share at $0.14 and GAAP earnings per share at a loss of $0.93. Let me talk about the economic environment as we see it. There was an unexpected deterioration of the economic environment after the first quarter of 2015. Since then, there was no real recovery as we see it. Inventories at distributors in the fourth quarter continued to climb slightly by 2%, distributors in the fourth quarter had a relatively weak POS, which was down by 6% versus prior quarter, a bigger drop than in prior year. We have seen low inventory turns at distribution in the quarter, 3.1 turns worldwide versus 3.3 turns in the third quarter, 2.0 turns in the Americas versus 2.2 turns in the third quarter, 4.4 turns in Asia on the same level as in Q3, 3.2 turns in Europe versus 3.5 turns in Q3. The book-to-bill ratio of distributors in the fourth quarter was principally encouraging. Though it was at 1.02. There are microeconomic concerns for China, and during the quarter they became more severe with stock markets taking a harsh decline. The American market continues to show a mixed picture. Automotive continues healthy. We see a very weak energy sector, which continues to burden the Industrial segment, which in general shows a relatively normal economic. Europe in the fourth quarter like during the entire year 2015 remained stable. Of course, supported by a weaker euro. Automotive remained strong worldwide, maybe in future somewhat lower growth rates to be expected than we have seen in the last year's. The Industrial segment is stable in Europe, okay in the U.S., except for the energy sector. Infrastructure projects mainly in China and India start to support the Asian industrial segment. Computers, in general continue to fall short of all expectations, the smartphones' market is flat with Chinese produces gaining share. Fixed telecom is expected to pick up, due to investments in 4G, mainly in developing countries like India. In the consumer segment, wearables and gaming support the business. Military remains flat, whereas the Medical segment continues to be friendly, in particular also in China. Coming to our business development, excluding exchange rate impact, sales came in close the mid-point of our guidance. In the fourth quarter, we achieved sales of $556 million versus $561 million in prior quarter and $611 million in prior year. Excluding exchange rate effect, sales in the quarter virtually were on the level of the third quarter, but down by $32 million or 5% versus prior year. Sales in the year 2015 were $2.3 billion versus $2.49 billion in 2014, a decrease of 4% excluding exchange rate effects and acquisitions. Book-to-bill in the quarter was 0.97, 1.02 for distribution after $0.96 in the third quarter, 0.91 for OEM after 0.96, 0.94 for active after 0.98, 1.02 for passives after 0.94, 0.92 for the Americas after 0.92, same level. 0.98 for Asia after 0.99, 1.0 for Europe after 0.96. Our backlog decreased slightly to 2.8 months, 2.7 in actives and 2.9 in passives. The order cancellations remain at the normal level. We have seen some increase of the price pressure versus prior year, vis-à-vis prior quarter minus 0.7%, but minus 3.6% versus prior year. For the actives vis-à-vis prior quarter, we have seen a decrease of 1.3% versus prior-year, a decrease of 4.3%. For passives, prices were stable vis-à-vis prior quarter, but there was a decrease of 2.7% versus prior year. Some highlights on operations, we in the year 2015, again, were able to offset the impact of inflation and of price decline on the contributive margin. SG&A costs in the quarter came in at $86 million better than expectation also due to quite effective belt-tightening. SG&A costs for the year were at the $362 million, $5 million or 1.4% below prior year at constant exchange rates and excluding the impact of acquisitions. Manufacturing fixed costs for the year were $491 million, $7 million or 1% above prior year, excluding the impact of exchange rates and acquisitions. Vishay in 2015 was able to compensate the effects of inflation on its total fixed costs by cost reduction. Total employment at the end of 2015 was 22,435 people, slightly below prior year. The fixed headcount went down by 45 heads in the year and more reductions obviously are to come. Excluding exchange rate impacts, inventories in the quarter were reduced by $23 million and inventory turns in the fourth quarter were 3.9. In 2015, inventories increased by $9 million, whereby the required build up safety stocks for MOSFETs costs at increase of 20. Inventory turns for the year were at $4.0 according to our expectations. Capital spending in 2015 was $147 million versus $157 million in prior year. We spent $72 million for expansion, $14 million for cost reduction and $61 million for maintenance of business. The major expansion projects were for power inductors, diodes and tantalum polymer capacitors. For 2016, we expect CapEx of approximately $140 million, in line with mid-term requirements of our growth plan. We generated in 2015 cash from operations of $245 million versus $297 million in prior year and we generated in 2015 free cash of $100 million versus $143 million in prior year. Naturally, the required buildup of our MOSFET safety stock burdened our performance last year, but this will be reduced going forward. Coming to our product lines and starting with resistors and inductors, Vishay's traditional and most profitable business basically continues on a good level, but in 2015 also experienced the general weakening of the economy. With resistors and inductors, we enjoy a very strong position in industrial, auto and mill markets and HiRel is very well positioned in the medical segment. We continue to see opportunities for growth in the Asian, predominantly in the Chinese market, especially in the industrial segment regardless some present cooling of the economy there. Sales in the quarter were $166 million, down by 3% versus prior quarter and down by 6% versus prior year, excluding exchange rate impacts. Year-over-year, resistors and inductors cruised light by about 0.4%. The book-to-bill ratio in the quarter was 1.03, after 0.95 in prior quarter and we increased our backlog in this product line to a solid level of 2.9 months. Gross margin was at 28% of sales in the quarter after 29% in prior quarter, due to lower volume and gross margin for the year came in at 30% of sales. Inventory turns in the quarter were at 4.2 as compared to 4.3 for the year. The price decline was small vis-à-vis prior quarter, 0.3%, but increased slightly year-over-year. It came to 3.1%. We continue in resistors, inductors in the area we continue to invest for expanding manufacturing capacities in power inductors and in thin film resistors and the acquisitions in specialty products some years ago, Huntington, HiRel and MCB, maintained to be quite successful. We in the year 2016, despite a weaker euro achieved sales of $95 million at an improved gross margin of 27%. Now I come to capacitors, our business with capacitors is based on a broad range of technologies with a strong position in American and European market niches. The capacitor business presently suffers severely from a decline of the oil and gas sector, the weakness in computers in the general economic softening in Asia. Sales in the fourth quarter were at $82 million, slightly below prior quarter, but 14% below prior year which excludes exchange rate effects. The book-to-bill ratio in the quarter was 0.99 after 0.93 in previous quarter. The backlog remained stable at 2.9 months. The gross margin for capacitor was at 19% of sales in the quarter, up from 16% in the third quarter, due to better efficiencies. The gross margin for the year 2015 was at 19% of sales. Inventory turns in the quarter were at 3.4 as compared to 3.4 for the whole year. The price decline was normal. We had slight price increases vis-à-vis prior quarter of 0.5% and prices were down by 1.9% versus prior year. For the mid-term, we remain confident for capacitor in view of our opportunities in Asia in power capacitors and for polymer tantalum capacitors in MAP technology, which we started to sell in the fourth quarter. Coming to the opto line, Vishay's business with opto products consists of infrared emitters, receivers, sensors and couplers, as well as LEDs for automotive applications. The business with infrared opto products represents one of Vishay's opportunities for growth especially the segment of sensors. The acquisition of Capella, a design house for chips used in optoelectronic sensors will strengthen our position and our potential for expanding this promising business further by having own competence in the field of chip design. Sales in the quarter were $68 million, 3% below prior quarter, but 1% above prior year, which excludes exchange rate impacts and acquisitions. Book-to-bill in the quarter was 0.91 after 0.95 in prior quarter. Backlog decreased slightly to 2.7 months, gross margin in the quarter reduced to 28% of sales after 33% in prior quarter, due to lower volume, a less favorable product mix and some temporary inefficiency in manufacturing. All this leads still to a quite satisfactory level of 32% gross margin for the year. This product line has quite excellent inventory turns of 6.0 in the quarter as compared to 5.6 in the year. Price decline was modest 0.9% decline versus prior quarter, 1.2% decline versus prior year. The newly created subdivisions sensors had a growth nicely with sales in the year of $134 million, which is a growth of 13% on a pro forma basis, excluding exchange rate effects. Coming to diodes, diodes represent a broad and growing commodity business, where we are largest supplier worldwide. Vishay offers virtually all technologies as well as the most complete product portfolio and we in particular are leading power applications. The business in the quarter in general was impacted negatively by the Asian slowdown. We reached sales of $135 million, 9% above prior quarter, but 2% below prior year, excluding exchange rate effects. Please be reminded that the third quarter has been handicapped by the explosion in port of Tianjin, the book-to-bill ratio of 0.97 in the quarter; after 1.05 in the third quarter. The backlog reduced to 2.7 months, the gross margin in the quarter improved to 23% of sales after 22% in prior quarter, which leads to a solid gross margin of 22% in the year. The inventory turns were very satisfactory 4.3 in the quarter as compared to 4.3 in the year. Some acceleration we have seen of the price decline versus prior year, minus 1% versus prior quarter declined minus 4.8 versus prior year. Coming to the MOSFETs, Vishay continues to be one of the market leaders in MOSFET transistors. Business continues to suffer from the weakness of the computer segment and of the Asian economy in general. Over the last year's we developed a quite good position in automotive, which helps to stabilize the performance. Sales in the quarter were $104 million, 5% below prior quarter and 6% below prior year, excluding exchange rate effects. Book-to-bill remained low, 0.9 in the fourth quarter versus 0.91 in prior quarter. The backlog is reduced to 2.6 months. The gross margin in the quarter was 13% of sales after 15% in prior quarter, because of lower volume in combination with less inventory build. The gross margin in the year was 14%. The inventory turns of 3.1 in the quarter, SG&A as compared to 3.4 in the year. There is an accelerated price decline, which continues to burdens the results minus 1.8% versus prior quarter, minus 5.7% versus prior year. We are approaching the full implementation of our major cost reduction project according to plan by the end of the first quarter, which will positively impact the results in the second quarter. Let me summarize. 2015 for Vishay clearly contained disappointments concerning the development of the business, leading to financial results not in line with our expectations. On the other hand, Vishay continue to show respectable results and remain the reliable supplier of free cash. We in 2015 achieved substantial progress in vital projects. We continue to control tightly our fixed costs initiating another companywide restructuring program. We implemented various programs for improving efficiencies and manufacturing, in particular at MOSFETs. With the help of our Capella acquisition, we started to grow sensors even faster and process to penetrate the tantalum polymer market. We also increased further our selling efforts in China, which undoubtedly will pay off in the future. Based on our operational strength and good financial position, we enter 2016 with confidence, in particular we believe in an eventual turnaround of the Chinese economy, especially of the interesting industrial segment. We continue to focus on shareholder value and by the repatriating foreign earnings, we improve our ability and flexibility for paying dividends, for buying back stock and for acquisitions in the United States. For the first quarter we guide to a sale ranges between 540 million and 580 million at the gross margin between 22% and 24% of sales. Thank you very much.