Earnings Labs

Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 3, 2016

$176.45

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Analytics Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's Director of Investor Relations, Mr. David Cohen. Mr. Cohen, please go ahead. David E. Cohen - Director-Investor Relations & Business Analytics: Thank you, Shannon, and good day to everyone. We appreciate your joining us today for discussion of our second quarter 2016 financial results. With me on the call this morning are Scott Stephenson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Anquillare, Chief Operating Officer; and Eva Huston, Chief Financial Officer. Following comments by Scott, Mark and Eva highlighting some key points about our strategic priorities and financial performance, we will open up the call for your questions. Unless stated otherwise, all results we discuss today will reflect continuing operations. All discussions of EBITDA reflect adjusted EBITDA, which excludes the second quarter 2015 hedge gain and one-time costs related to the Wood Mackenzie acquisition. The earnings release referenced on this call, as well as the associated 10-Q, can be found in the Investor section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. The earnings release contains reconciliations of several non-GAAP measures which we'll reference on today's call. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in. Finally, as set forth in more detail in yesterday's earnings release, today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is summarized at the end of our press release, as well…

Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Operating Officer

Management

Thank you, Scott. Across our businesses which serve the property and casualty insurance industry, we have seen several key industry themes including vertical big data, industry automation and digital engagement. With these themes in mind, I will briefly describe a number of positive recent developments in our businesses. Reflecting on all three themes, Verisk Insurance Solutions launched a new integration option for 360Value, our web based replacement cost estimator for homeowner's insurance. 360Value is built on our unique and industry standard construction materials and labor cost data. This solution helps our customers estimate coverage limits for residential, commercial and agricultural properties. Our customers can now integrate 360Value directly into their online homeowners quoting platforms. This helps the industry deploy more engaging solutions which include pre-filling and online insurance application with property-specific information when a homeowner enters an address. Another recent launch is Mozart, a new product development platform increasing engagement in automation which helps our clients to easily research, create and distribute coverage language, providing efficiencies in time-to-market from new products and critical coverage updates. Mozart will help our customers accelerate profitable growth, reduce expense ratios and enhance audit and compliance. Leveraging big data methods, cutting edge technology and pioneering automation, AIR released a hosted cloud solution for its catastrophe risk management platforms, Touchstone and CATRADER. More than a dozen companies are already up and running on the AIR cloud, which enables them to conduct all of their analyses remotely while minimizing capital expenditures. Finally, in addition to the new deployment option, AIR recently expanded its coverage model of Southeast Asia. These models combine 10 years of extensive scientific research by AIR scientists with findings from studies of local building codes, damage surveys, lost experience data and structural engineering research. With that, let me turn it over to Eva to…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Tim McHugh from William Blair Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Timothy J. McHugh - William Blair & Co. LLC: Thank you. First, I wanted to ask about the cat modeling business. I guess, one, can you give us any sense in terms of the magnitude of the impact from the consulting and cat bonds or I guess how big those are relative to the size of the cat modeling business? And just trying to get a sense of the underlying trend in that cat modeling business versus the trends you have been seeing. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Great. Hey, Tim. It's Eva. Thanks for the question. Maybe just starting at a high level, cat bonds and consulting are less than 5% of overall Decision Analytics insurance revenue. Obviously for AIR, those would be a greater percentage. But if you were to peel back the onion and look at AIR's performance, the underlying subscription business is performing very well. We're very happy with our position in the market. And with regards to cat bonds, we continue to win and we have strong market share. There's just some variability that can happen across periods in some of those revenues that are non-subscription. Timothy J. McHugh - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. That's helpful. And then the comment about accelerating growth in the insurance vertical this year, it seems to imply you would need pretty strong performance in the second half of the year. I guess, can you just tell us, make sure I guess, tell us what you are assuming there? And I guess, just to be clear, is that I guess inclusive or exclusive of the kind of true-up revenue that you…

Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Operating Officer

Management

So, just to kind of follow up on the question you had from a DA perspective, that growth would be with and without the true-up adjustment. Just to kind of reiterate Scott said, I mean we're feeling pretty good and confident because of what I refer to as contracts that are signed and waiting for implementation, so those do kick in in the second half. Timothy J. McHugh - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. Thank you. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sara Gubins from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

In Wood Mac, so good to see that the trend was largely as you expected. Any reason to think that that changes in one direction or another in the back half of the year based on what you're seeing from client demand? Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No. No. The retention rates on the subscription based part of the business remain very strong. And actually, the services side of the business actually had some very nice wins in the last couple of months. So no, we don't anticipate any changes.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then turning to margins, as we think about margin trends for the two segments, you had talked before about plans for increased hiring in Risk Assessment and it looks like we saw that come through in this quarter. Are we now at a stable run rate for cost in that segment or is there further ramp in the cost base to come? And if you could help us think about various factors impacting the margin trends for Decision Analytics in the back half of the year as well, that would be great. Thanks. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So let me just make a general comment and then, Eva, maybe you want to take it on a little more specifically. One of the decisions that you get to make when you are in the position we are of leading a company like Verisk is, when you're aware of kind of the macro environment and modest waxing and waning in terms of revenues in any particular moment, the question you get to ask yourself is what is your confidence in the business. Are you going to continue to invest? And we're very confident in this business. And so we have continued to invest knowing that at this moment in time, we have the kinds of just macro factors that I talked about before. Specifically with respect to ISO solutions, we are very interested in amplifying what it is that we do there. And so the kind of talent that we brought in with respect to topics like – and all of these relate to the insurance world, cyber, Internet of Things, the linkage between the energy ecosystem and the insurance world, et cetera – we've really created a substantially new talent base that…

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Scott, I definitely heard the second half acceleration for insurance which is expected. I just wanted to know quantitatively if we're still looking for Verisk to see each RA and DA insurance accelerate for the full year 2016 from the 2015 rates which were 6% and 8%. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Most of the lift in terms of the growth rate is going to come on the DA side.

Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Jeffrey from SunTrust. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Andrew Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey.

Andrew Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

I appreciate you taking my question. Hey. Mark, the color on some of those new products is helpful. I wonder if you can elaborate again as a follow-up to Andrew Steinerman's question, specifically within DA, is do we see some of those new products making a meaningful contribution in the back half or is this sort of just the natural motion of continued share gain and pricing to value and so forth?

Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Operating Officer

Management

So, the short answer is I think these will become more meaningful as we think about 2017 and beyond. But as I highlighted, we have some AIR customers that are on the cloud and moving quickly. So it does help 2016 back half, but I would think these are a little bit more longer term in the way I think and outline the business for the future.

Andrew Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And are there any other callouts? I know underwriting is sort of one of your burgeoning areas, or is as you indicated in the second quarter, the growth sort of pretty evenly distributed across your solution sets? And again, I'm thinking about insurance DA.

Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Operating Officer

Management

Once again I'll just, I'll echo Scott. I mean it's broad-based. I think we feel good about most areas of the business with regard to growth in the second half relative to the first. And there's a couple areas where we actually are having customers transition to our solutions. And that just sometimes takes a little more time than you anticipate, whether it's volumes coming through or the volumes you expect coming through. Although you have signed contracts that you know there's a commitment over time, we want to go as fast as we can, and we have to work with our customers to do that.

Andrew Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, so maybe a little bit of timing to consider in the second quarter too then?

Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Operating Officer

Management

All true.

Andrew Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Arash Soleimani from KBW. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Arash Soleimani - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Thanks. Just to start off. In terms of Wood Mac, I know in the past you talked about how you thought it was undersold. I was just wondering if you have any updates there on progress you've made on that front. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah so, the sort of the selling of Wood Mac really you can think of it as being in two different buckets. So one of those is to cross-sell and up-sell inside of our existing customer set which is order of magnitude 1,000 customers. And we give a lot of attention to whether we're right-sized there. Obviously, we're trying to pick our spots at the moment because of just the overall environment. But that is a team that is strong and getting stronger. We actually have new leadership of the sales team there and very excited about Lynda's leadership for us. And then secondly, there is how do we go from 1,000 to say 5,000 or more kinds of customers. And that in part hinges upon opening up new channels for distributing our content. And we have one new such relationship in place and are working hard to get others in place. So, I think that it's a good feeling into the future and kind of there are some early shoots with respect to these new channels. Arash Soleimani - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Thank you for that. And I guess next question is kind of staying on the Wood Mac topic. Just given that I guess last year in the second of half of the year was when Wood Mac…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler from Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Thank you. Good morning. Can you just give us an update on where you are in terms of aerial imagery image capture as well as productizing the broader aerial imagery capabilities? Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So, one of our favorite topics. So we have at the moment basically two different ways that we give ourselves access to images today. One is our own efforts to source images and the other is working with third parties who have been sourcing images for their own purposes. That mix I would say is working, and has helped us to take all of the great image analytics technology that we've got and basically make that more active, particularly in the insurance vertical today. That's really where it's happening today. And we continue to ask questions about how we can be more in control of a larger set of images that are optimized for the use cases that we have in mind and we're working actively on that right now. So the report, Jeff, would be that commercially we're succeeding with what we're doing in the imaging space and we continue to think deeply about additional things that would help us to be more in control of a larger set of images. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): When you say commercially succeeding, do you have the image library and gathering apparatus necessary that you're at the point where you're productizing and selling to clients? Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. Correct. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W.…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Warmington from Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning everyone. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

So, first congratulations to Mark and to Eva on the promotion. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thank you, Bill.

Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Operating Officer

Management

Thanks.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

So first question for the new CFO, you've hit your leverage target, exceeded it, 2.5 is what you had set back when you had purchased Wood Mac, you're at 2.2 times. Going forward, what's that new leverage target? It had been 2.5, but that seemed like more of a combination temporarily. Is it more like 3 times? Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Bill, I would say that our leverage target steady-state remains 2.5 times. But remember how we've always operated, is we have flexibility to go above that. We did with. We said we'd delever. I think that we have a leverage point that our business can very easily support. I think that we always just look at the opportunities and figure out where we need to settle that. But I think the good news for us is we've got capacity under even at steady-state and the flexibility to go up as warranted if there's a deal that makes sense for us.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Got it. And then a second question for you on the insurance business and Decision Analytics. If you could talk a little bit about Xactware, XactContents and the blend of the subscription and transaction business and then also how the new 360Value product fits in with that whole category. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah so, Bill, maybe I'll take the second part first, then I'll let Mark talk a little bit about some of the specific products in insurance and solutions. If you were to think about Decision Analytics overall, the mix between subscription and non-subscription, it's about 77% subscription. I would say insurance in Decision Analytics looks fairly similar to the rest of Decision Analytics now, now that we don't have that highly transactional business in healthcare in there anymore. There's more uniformity across that. So, I think that we love where we sit. We've always thought it was natural to have someone out of non-subscription revenue, and I think in Decision Analytics, we have a bit more of that, and that includes things we do that provide us opportunities to work closely with customers and develop those new solutions. I'll let Mark comment a bit on Xactware and some of the other solutions. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And the 360 innovations.

Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Operating Officer

Management

Sure. So let me just quickly highlight the fact that we continue to improve the suite of Xactware solutions. Our vision and our focus for this year and next is to bring out what I'll refer to as a more integrated solution which brings together Xactimate that's used in probably about 85% of the property repair cost estimates across the United States in combination with XactAnalysis which is the BI tool and everything around it so that you can work and use your back office in an efficient way. In addition, Contents, which represents all of the information about pricing and materials inside the home to replace the TV, couches, rugs and things. So our focus, make it more integrated, easier to use, more focus on the claim as opposed to the assignment, which was doing the work but more on the claim. All of that has been kind of a focus from a customer perspective and our perspective to achieve those things. Very much in our forward vision is to take that solution, that more simplified solution and bring it to the global insurance market, customizing it in a way that it is fit for use in that market and we've put a lot of time and resource and are making progress there. The final component to this is we are seeing a lot of activity in the US market where people are interested in trying to make access to the quote engine, going online and getting a quote for auto and home, more and more interactive with the customer. And our ability to help our customers do that through the enhancement here at 360Value, lets you as a homeowner go online to make sure you have the proper coverage for your home. That's valuable, that's helpful and it's easy. You have the policyholder, or the person who's getting the quote do it himself and that's the type of innovation we want to work with and help our customers with their customers. Last piece as we think about this bringing it together, we are finding increased interest in basically the whole property suite of solutions as we go overseas. So we kind of led in with the claims side of things, but clearly people are looking for information about large commercial buildings. So, replicating some of the things we do here in the United States, using both remote sensing and aerial images, providing with insights into risk about a building and help him understand what the insurance to value is, meaning what's the replacement cost if there was a total loss. And all of those themes, I think we are trying to be more comprehensive, more seamless, both internationally and that will obviously revert back with our US customers as well. So I probably said a lot, but I want to make sure I responded to some of the questions then.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Well, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thanks, Bill.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut from Evercore. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

David Mark Togut - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, would appreciate your thoughts more broadly on capital allocation, Scott, especially since you've reached the target leverage ratio or even below it, ahead of schedule. Post the sale of healthcare, you have more subscription revenue, more visibility on cash flow. You indicated a preference for small tuck-in data-oriented acquisitions. I guess two questions. First, how do you think about opportunities in the acquisition pipeline versus share repurchase given the current price of your stock? And then secondly, with the higher subscription based revenue, more visible cash flow, higher margin profile, how do you think about the possibility of initiating a dividend? Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I mean all good, all good topics. So, maybe back to the top. If you look at our company over extended periods of time, the program of acquisition and the share repurchase program have both done very well for our shareholders, both have done very well. And there's really nothing in our situation that would cause us to think that anything fundamentally is going to be different in the future than in the past. You actually pointed out one of the features of our company, which is that the cash flow visibility is, if anything, even greater than it was. So we would continue to see both of those as real pillars inside of the way that we do what we do. And so at any given moment, this moment for example, we're always taking stock of where we stand in the M&A pipeline and how imminent we think good opportunities are. And we remain very interested in deploying capital in terms of returning it to shareholders when we feel that sort of that which is right at the head of the pipeline and the…

David Mark Togut - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Understood. Thanks so much for the insights. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You bet.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: I was hoping you could give a little more color on the pieces within specialized excluding Wood Mac. Were there parts of the business that did well this quarter? And basically, where were the sort of the troubled areas; where were the bright spots? Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, Toni, I'll kick off on that and Scott may want to add some comments. I think if you take Wood Mac, PCI and Infield out of specialized because those are all inorganic in the quarter, you primarily have our environmental health and safety solutions and some of our weather solutions. We referenced in the press release and on the call, when you think about EH&S, there were some global standards that went into place in 2015 which gave us the opportunity to serve our customers in making those transitions. Those transitions are complete and so you'll kind of see a normalization of that type of work this year which is leading to the organic result of a decline there. I would say that that's probably the primary impact. And if you were to think about it, I think the headline growth decline as a percentage is larger than the actual dollar impact on Verisk. The other thing we mentioned is with regards to that area, we are transitioning into more subscription based revenues. And I think that's really great both for us and for our customers. So in a moment in…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital. Your line is open. Pease go ahead.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Thanks so much. I know it's late. I just have a quick question. Eva, you had mentioned the potential $25 million impact from FX for the year. Can you give us a little bit more color exactly which line items from a revenue perspective we might see the biggest impact? Thanks. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Sure, absolutely. I mean obviously Wood Mac has the most of the pound-based revenue which is the rate we're referencing, although we do have other currencies in there as well. I would say that we have international revenue in our financial services, as I mentioned. We have some of that in EH&S. I mean we have a little bit now in insurance as well. And so most of it would be in Wood Mac, but I think it is actually scattered across the company. And as we go forward, I think one of the things that's been on my mind is, I think we will continue to try to provide you more visibility into that, because my sense is that to date, your inclusion of that impact in our forward-looking expectations that you develop has been a little more soft as opposed to direct. And so we'll try to help you with that.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

All right. That would be appreciated. Thanks so much. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Foresi from Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Joseph Foresi - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Analyst

Hi. So, my question is just on the longer term margin profile of the business. It sounded like obviously there's some macro issues and some issues within the insurance vertical in general that are kind of, I wouldn't call them one-time, but are ebbs and flows of the business. and you're taking the opportunity here to add resources and to maybe bulk up on some of your new offerings. So how should we think about the longer term margin profile of the business? Is this a short term thing, and if those macro factors turn in your favor, will you kind of pull back on that or is this something that's in place until those new businesses kick in? How should we think about it? Thanks. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, well maybe just starting with long term because as we think about long term, that's over multiple years. I don't know when you're saying that and you're referencing the quarter, it almost sounds to me like you're referring more to a shorter long term than we would. But what I would say is I think we continue to be constructive on margins over the long term. Our business is that build it once, sell it many times. As I did observe in the quarter in particular, when you have some high margin non-subscription business like cat bonds and you have lots of that, that will have a moment-in-time impact on the margin in the quarter. But that being said, I think over the long term, nothing has changed in our outlook for what we can do there and the opportunity to expand margins over time.

Joseph Foresi - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Analyst

Thank you. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of James Friedman from Susquehanna. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

James Friedman - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Hi. Let me echo the congratulations on your respective promotions. I'll just ask my two questions up front. And you sort of addressed them in your prior three responses, Eva, but I just want to make sure I had this right. The transition to subscription in Wood Mac, how should we sort of dimensionalize the revenue impact? That's the first one, the subscription in Wood Mac. And the second one is, were there any project based revenues in the Q2 related to financial services? Thank you. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah so, just on the first question, a clarification. When you're talking about transition to subscription revenue, that was referencing ex-Wood Mac in energy and specialized, so that was really more around our EH&S solutions. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, in country and political risk. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Country and political. So, that was not a Wood Mac related comment. With regards to project revenue in financial services, I mean we always have some. I would say there was nothing in particular that we would call out in the quarter. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And that's not the dominant theme in terms of what's going on. The growth in financial services is very broadly based. It's new geographies. It's the traditional subscription revenues. It's analytic product. It's the whole mix.

James Friedman - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Thank you, Scott. Thank you. Eva F. Huston - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions on the phone lines at this time. I would return the call to the presenters. Scott G. Stephenson - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Well, just wanted to say thank you all very much for your interest today and all the good questions. And I know we'll be seeing some of you in the relatively near future and look forward to that. And otherwise, we'll speak with you next quarter. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.