Operator
Operator
Good day everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Analytics Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's SVP and Treasurer, Ms. Eva Huston. Ms. Huston, please go ahead. Eva F. Huston - Senior Vice President, Treasurer & Chief Knowledge Officer: Thank you, Dorothy, and good morning to everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our fourth quarter 2015 and full year 2015 financial results. With me on the call this morning are Scott Stephenson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Anquillare, Chief Financial Officer. Following comments by Scott and Mark highlighting some key points about our strategic priorities and financial performance, we will open up the call for your questions. The earnings release referenced on the call, as well as the associated 10-K, can be found in the Investors section of our website at verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days, until March 24, 2016, on our website and by dial-in. Finally, as set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings. And now I will turn the call over to Scott Stephenson. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Eva. And good morning, everyone. We reported another year of industry-leading high-single-digit organic revenue growth with margin expansion and excellent free cash flow generation. Fourth quarter results were in line with our expectations, with total revenue growth of about 21% and an increase in diluted adjusted EPS of about 23%. Full year revenue grew 18% and diluted adjusted EPS increased about 29%. We grew the top line, excluding the healthcare analytics business and recent acquisitions, over 5% in the quarter and 7% for the full year. Profitability was strong as adjusted EBITDA excluding acquisitions grew about 7% in the quarter and 14% for the full year. Our adjusted EBITDA margins were 47% in the quarter and 48% for the full year. We continue to work on our comprehensive review of strategic alternatives for the healthcare analytics business. There is a range of alternatives and not solely limited to a sale of the business. As responsible stewards of shareholder capital, we are being methodical and thoughtful in our approach. The volatility of the equity and leverage markets in the last quarter of 2015 and the beginning of 2016 has contributed to the timing of our efforts. We expect to be able to provide you with an update by the time we report first quarter earnings. We're always looking to innovate to drive growth at Verisk. For example, in our insurance business one of the solutions which has been contributing to growth in Risk Assessment is the ISO electronic rating content suite. We rolled out new features including an automated maintenance feed that allows insurers to import the most recent changes to ISO loss costs and rating algorithms directly into their rating systems. This is innovation which helps our customers to implement rate changes more quickly and more efficiently. In other recent news, WoodMac announced a commercial alliance with Thomson Reuters. This alliance gives customers of the Eikon platform a direct link to WoodMac's oilfield data and research. The information and analysis we are providing includes crude oil production, oil product balances and stocks, oil product prices, crack spreads and refining margins. This is an important new channel for WoodMac, extending our reach to customers we were largely not already serving. Looking at capital deployment, we are on track to meet our deleveraging commitment even as we have made a number of tuck-in acquisitions and returned capital to our shareholders through repurchases. We made a couple of acquisitions in the fourth quarter for about $50 million. We acquired Infield Systems including its proprietary database of offshore asset prices. We also acquired PCI Group, which has proprietary data assets and deep chemical industry domain expertise. These two acquisitions complement and enhance our data and capabilities at WoodMac very nicely. During the quarter, we returned capital to shareholders through the repurchase of over $20 million of stock. Our remaining authorization at the end of 2015 was $469 million after a $300 million increase in December, and we remain buyers of our stock at current levels. We are committed to a prudent mix of M&A and share repurchases over time to complement and enhance our core businesses. This combination positions us very well to deliver the kinds of shareholder returns over the next several years that we expect of ourselves and you expect of us. Our initiatives during the past year position us well to execute on our plans for 2016 and we're constructive on the outlook. We expect our combined insurance businesses will grow at least as fast as they did in 2015. This reflects the quality and value of the solutions we provide and the strength of our relationships. As we discussed at Investor Day in December, we expect WoodMac to grow in constant currency, even when excluding the effect of Infield and PCI. Given the end market dynamics, we think this is a strong reflection of the quality of our team, the strength of our intellectual property and the depth of our customer relationships. Our health care business grew 6% in 2015 with expanding margins, and we anticipate a higher rate of growth and additional margin expansion in 2016. We also expect Argus to grow double-digits for the full year 2016, even with the one-time project revenue we had in the first quarter of 2015. Over and above all of this, in 2016 we will strengthen our foundation. Our internal environment for handling large amounts of diverse data types is rapidly and continuously improving. Our data assets, already among the largest private data sets in the world, will expand. And our global footprint, a key to providing organic growth opportunities over the long term, is now in place and growing. Verisk is today one of the world's most valuable, vertically oriented data analytics companies. Our robust plans to the year 2020 will lead to new levels of distinction and performance. So with that let me turn it over to Mark to cover the financials in more detail. Mark V. Anquillare - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you, Scott. For the fourth quarter, we again delivered solid revenue and EBITDA growth while also investing for the future. Revenue grew 20.6% in the fourth quarter and 18.4% for the full year. Net of healthcare pass-through revenue, and excluding the effect of recent acquisitions, total revenue grew 3.9% in the fourth quarter and 7.4% for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes the second quarter hedge gain and WoodMac one-time acquisition costs, grew 22.5% to $263 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA grew 24% to $996 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year was 47.4%, excluding the $15.6 million third quarter warrant gain. And adjusted EBITDA margins excluding healthcare, acquisitions, and third quarter warrant gains were over 50% for the quarter and year-to-date. Within the Decision Analytics segment, revenue grew 29% in the fourth quarter and 5.3% excluding healthcare and acquisitions. Revenue growth in the quarter was driven by insurance. For the full year, Decision Analytics revenue grew 25.9% and 9.3% excluding healthcare and acquisitions. Decision Analytics insurance revenue grew 7% in the fourth quarter. Performance in the quarter was led by strong growth in loss quantification solutions with good contributions from insurance, anti-fraud claim solutions, and underwriting solutions. Catastrophe modeling solutions also contributed to the growth. Full year Decision Analytics insurance growth was a solid 8.1%. Financial Services revenue declined 2.6% in the quarter due to project work in the prior-year period which did not recur this year. For the full year Financial Services revenue grew 20.5% as a result of media effectiveness project revenue and continued demand for analytic solutions and services in the U.S. and notably expanding globally. The Healthcare business again performed slightly ahead of our internal forecast. Net of pass through revenue, Healthcare declined 2.4% in the quarter but grew 6.2% for the full year. Population solutions led the growth in the quarter while payment solutions led the growth for the full year. All areas contributed to full year growth and full year margins improved versus 2014. Energy and specialized revenue increased 410% in the fourth quarter and 264% for the full year. Organic growth in the quarter was 4.3% and for the full year 5.1%. Commercial weather and climate analytics and environmental health and safety solutions led the growth. WoodMac revenue in pounds and on a comparable basis declined 1% in the quarter and increased approximately 5% for the full year. For the period of our ownership, WoodMac contributed $211 million, slightly ahead of what we discussed with you last quarter despite exchange rate headwind. We're pleased with WoodMac's performance in an extraordinary time for their customers. Annual contract value of signings were up in 2015. Customer retention remained strong and client engagement as measured by portal activity was up 26% versus 2014. Turning to Risk Assessment. Revenue grew 5.4% in the quarter, indicating the value to our long-standing insurance customers. The overall increase within the segment was due in part to 5.5% revenue growth of industry-standard insurance programs resulting primarily from growth in 2015 invoices effective from January 1. Property-specific rating and underwriting revenue increased 4.9% in the quarter. Growth was a result of new sales with higher committed volumes. For the full year, Risk Assessment revenue grew 5.8% driven by 6% growth in industry standard programs and 5.1% growth in the property-specific rating and underwriting category. As I mentioned earlier, EBIT (sic) [EBITDA] increased 22.5% in the quarter to $263 million resulting in EBITDA margins of 46.9%. Decision Analytics adjusted EBIT (sic) [EBITDA] increased 30.8% to $161 million in the quarter as a result of acquisitions, growth of the business and lower professional services fees. Excluding the effect of recent acquisitions, second quarter WoodMac onetime items and the third quarter warrant gain. Decision Analytics adjusted EBITDA increased 3.7% in the quarter and 13% for the full year. EBITDA margins for the Healthcare Analytics business net of pass-through expenses were 24.8% in the quarter and 25% for the full year. Fourth quarter 2015 EBITDA in Risk Assessment increased 11.4% to $102 million as a result of good revenue growth, good expense management and the talent realignment costs in the prior period. Excluding the prior-period talent realignment cost, EBIT (sic) [EBITDA] grew 5.8% in the quarter and 8.8% for the full year. Reported interest expense was $33 million in the quarter. At December 31, 2015 total debt was about $3.2 billion including about $870 million in revolver borrowings. Our leverage, at the end of fourth quarter was about 2.9 times. We'll remain committed to bring the leverage down to about 2.5 times by the end of 2016. Since the end of the fourth quarter we have paid an additional $165 million. Our cash and cash equivalents were about $138 million at the end of 2015. Our reported effective tax rate was 30.3% in the quarter. For the full year 2015 the effective tax rate was 29.3%. Adjusted net income increased 28% to $138 million in the quarter and 28.1% to $520 million for the full year. The average diluted share count was 172.6 million shares in the quarter. On December 31, 2015 our diluted share count was 172.2 million shares. Adjusted EPS on a fully diluted basis was $0.80 in the quarter, an increase of 23.1%. For the full year adjusted EPS grew 28.8% to $3.09. For shares purchased in the quarter, the average purchase price was $73.20. At December 31, 2015 the company had about $469 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. Our share repurchase program has been successful to date, generating annualized IRRs well above our cost of capital. In 2015 free cash flow grew 33.5% compared with the prior-year period of $458 million and representing 46% of adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations in the 12 months of 2015. Growth in free cash flow is driven by improved profitability in the business and stable CapEx, partially offset by higher interest and fees related to the WoodMac acquisition. Capital expenditures were $166 million in the 12 months ended December 31, 2015, an increase of $19 million over the same period in 2014. Capital expenditures were 8% of revenue for the 12 months ended December 31, 2015. We continue to manage the capital intensity of the business and expect it to continue to move lower as it has over the past several years. To think about your models for 2016, we expect CapEx of about $175 million, fixed asset depreciation and amortization of about $140 million, and amortization of intangibles of about $121 million. Based on our current debt balances, we expect interest expense to be around $130 million. We expect the tax rate to be in the range of 32% to 33%. For the intangible amortization add-back in the adjusted net income calculation, we will use 28% to reflect the tax rate applicable to our intangible assets. And finally we expect a diluted weighted average share count of about 172 million shares before incremental repurchases. As a reminder, first quarter of 2015 still had healthcare pass-through revenue included in the reported results. You will recall that after adjusting for the pass-through revenue of about $6.7 million, first quarter 2015 would have been $68.4. Also in the first quarter of 2015 we had about $11 million of project revenue at Argus, which had higher than average margins. Overall we're pleased with the results for 2015 and excited by the plan for 2016 and the opportunities ahead. We expect to see growth from multiple verticals and we're managing the business to generate long-term shareholder returns. With that I'll turn it back to Eva for a comment before Q&A. Eva F. Huston - Senior Vice President, Treasurer & Chief Knowledge Officer: Thanks, Mark. We appreciate all the interest in Verisk. Given the large number of analysts we have covering us, we ask that you limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. This will give more people an opportunity to ask their questions. And with that I'll ask the operator to open up the line.