Kevin J. Sierks
Analyst · Robert W
Thanks, Rob, and good afternoon. I will begin my remarks with a review of our fiscal 2014 third quarter and then provide you with our outlook for the remainder of the year. Our third quarter performance delivered top and bottom line financial results at or above our expectations. Net revenues for the third quarter decreased 6% to $130.1 million compared to $138.3 million in the prior quarter. In the Direct segment, net revenues increased 7% to $68.9 million. The revenue increase resulted primarily from the opening of 20 new full-price stores and 4 outlet locations during the past 12 months. The Direct segment accounted for 53% of total net revenues in the third quarter versus 46% in the prior year. We ended the quarter with 84 full-price and 15 outlet stores. Comparable store sales decreased 6.5% during the quarter as we continue to see lower traffic levels. This was due in part to a difficult retail environment, including soft mall traffic, as well as the overall product assortment performing below our expectations. E-commerce sales decreased $2.2 million or 8%, in line with our expectations, primarily due to lower traffic and lower average transaction size. We completed a few things during the third quarter that are expected to improve our website for the customer over the long term. First, we began to segment our emails between our full-price and outlet customers in order to improve full-price selling and conversion rates over the long term. Second, we migrated our site to a responsive design in order to provide a better shopping experience for our mobile customers. This new design provides an optimal viewing experience regardless of the device she uses to shop. Traffic from mobile devices was nearly 50% of the traffic for the third quarter, an increase of over 10% compared to the third quarter of last year. Indirect net revenues decreased 17% to $61.2 million, in line with our guidance for the quarter. As we work towards improving the productivity in our Indirect segment, we are placing greater focus on our key accounts, such as Dillard's and Disney, and have aligned resources accordingly. We are on track to reduce our specialty gift channel distribution by approximately 400 retailers as we exit fiscal 2014 due to a combination of remediation, natural attrition and a more selective approach to opening new specialty gift stores. The continued sales decline in our specialty gift channel was partly offset by growth in our key accounts, including our new business with Disney. The Vera Bradley for Disney collection launched at the Florida World of Disney Store in September. Hundreds of people waited in line for a chance to purchase items from the collection and meet Barbara, our Chief Creative Officer. Disney has since rolled out additional locations and disneystore.com. Consolidated gross profit for the third quarter decreased 10% to $71.9 million, resulting in a gross margin rate of 55.3% compared to 58% in the prior year. This was in line with our expectations. The decline was primarily due to increased promotional activity compared to last year. As part of our effort to achieve operational excellence, we continue to focus on expense management. As such, we reduced total SG&A expense by 9% to $48.8 million for the third quarter compared to $53.6 million in the prior year. As a percentage of net revenues, SG&A was favorable by 125 basis points versus the prior year. Cost reductions came primarily from a decrease in discretionary spending, headcount management and successful contract negotiations with suppliers. SG&A was also favorably impacted by a reduction in variable executive compensation expenses associated with company performance. Operating income for the third quarter decreased 12.3% to $24.2 million or 18.6% of net revenues compared to $27.6 million or 19.9% of net revenues in the prior year. Operating income in our Direct segment decreased by 16% to $14.9 million, with operating margin of 21.6% in the third quarter of this year compared to 27.6% in last year's third quarter. This was primarily driven by lower gross margins related to increased promotional activity. Operating income in our Indirect segment decreased by 14.3% to $26 million compared to $30.3 million in the same period last year, with operating margins of 42.4% compared to 40.9% in the third quarter of last year. Improved operating margin resulted from a decrease in variable sales team compensation expense and expense management measures. The effective tax rate for the quarter increased to 36.9% compared to 35.2% in the prior year, primarily driven by the state tax incentive received in the prior year related to the completion of our October 2002 distribution center expansion. Net income for the third quarter decreased 14% to $15.2 million or $0.37 per diluted share compared to net income of $17.7 million or 44% per diluted share in the prior year. Key balance sheet highlights at the end of the third quarter include cash and cash equivalents of $13.7 million and a debt-free balance sheet, accounts receivable of $42.9 million compared to $46.9 million in the prior year and related days sales outstanding of 68 compared to 64 in the prior year. Inventory at the end of the third quarter was $150.5 million compared to $135.3 million in the prior year, an increase of 11%. This growth is lower than our guidance primarily due to the timing of inventory shipment from China that shipped early in the fourth quarter. I would now like to move on to guidance for the fourth quarter. On November 7, we launched our winter collection featuring 2 new prints, Canterberry Magenta and Venetian Paisley, as well as an assortment of holiday gifts. On November 21, we re-released a popular pattern from 2007, Pink Elephants, in a limited assortment. This represents our first fan favorite relaunch to date. On December 5, we released our final print of the calendar year, Clementine. These launches were not able to overcome the headwind we face as a business, particularly in the current retail environment. As such, we have updated our expectations for the fourth quarter. In addition, our guidance reflects our expectation that the challenging consumer environment will continue, as well as the softness in the consumer response to our overall merchandise assortment. We expect this to result in continued weak traffic and an increase in the level of planned promotional activity. Please keep in mind that fiscal 2013 was a 53-week year. The incremental 53rd week contributed approximately $4.9 million in sales and $0.02 to diluted earnings per share for both the fourth quarter and full year results. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014, we expect net revenues to be in the range of $145 million to $150 million compared to $163 million in the prior year. We expect the Direct segment net revenues to decline in the low- to mid-single digits, with comparable store sales decline in the mid-teens. Indirect net revenues are anticipated to decline in the high-teens. Gross margin for the fourth quarter is expected to decline by 340 to 380 basis points, primarily due to increased promotional activity compared to the prior year. SG&A, as a percentage of net revenues, is expected to be approximately 34.5% or 33.7% net of other income. Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $0.44 to $0.47. Our earnings per share estimate assumes an effective tax rate of 38% and fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding of 40.6 million. This guidance reflects our expectation that the challenging retail environment will continue, as well as the softness in the consumer response to our merchandise assortment resulting in weak traffic and a higher level of planned promotional activity. For the full year fiscal 2014, we expect net revenues to be in the range of $523 million to $528 million. This includes Direct segment net revenue growth in the high-single digits with comparable store sales decline of mid- to high-single digits. Indirect net revenues are expected to decline in the mid-teens. We expect gross margin to decline by 135 to 145 basis points for the full year. SG&A, as a percentage of net revenues, is expected to be approximately 38.5% or 38% net of other income. The reduction to incentive compensation expense for the entire year is estimated to be $6 million to $7 million. We expect diluted earnings per share for the full year to be in a range of $1.41 to $1.44. This estimate includes an effective tax rate of 38% and fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding of 40.6 million. We estimate inventory to be approximately $160 million at the end of the year. It is important to note that approximately $23 million of finished goods inventory for our summer launch planned for March 2014 is included in this total. There is not a comparable amount in last year's inventory balance as it was shipped subsequent to year end. This timing difference is primarily due to the Chinese New Year being earlier this year. With regard to capital spending, during the last quarter, we announced our plans to consolidate all corporate personnel onto one campus at our current distribution and design centers. Based on the current progress of this previously announced $27 million project, we expect our total capital expenditures to be approximately $25 million for the full year. With that, we will open up the call for questions.