Michael Smith
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please state your question.
Well, really -- maybe I'd put it in the context of the two big assumptions that we -- assumption changes we made. First, we lowered the long-term interest rate to 2%, which I think a couple of you have noticed in your overnight notes. I think that puts us at the conservative, if not the most conservative. And then, I think it's just a recognition that we have been looking at history as a guide, and that's an important thing to think about as we talk about equity. We look at history as a guide. And the question has been how much utility, how much importance to put on some of the history pre-crisis. And I think, we concluded that given the pandemic, given the change in Fed policy, given that we're now 10 years past the financial crisis and it seems like we're in this new regime, it just makes sense to take that expectation down. And I think importantly, as I think about it, in our communications with shareholders and other stakeholders is simply, I think, we've taken the interest rate question off the table for quite a while as it relates to the balance sheet. So, equity markets, similar logic, right? I think, we look at history, you don't have the last 10 years to support that you should lower your expectations. And also as you look over the last 30 years or 50 years, for that matter, equity markets over that long period of time have generated I think meaningfully actually in excess of 9%. So, we lowered it largely because we lowered the base interest rate. And so, there is a -- I think, a good theoretical connection between lowering our expectations for the risk rate and then lowering equity market returns. I think, it's in the eye of the beholder as to what's conservative and what's not. We believe this puts us right at the middle of industry practice. There are some lower. There are some higher. But what's important is that this only goes to establishing the -- effectively the intangible and the rate at which we amortize the intangible on our GAAP balance sheet. And it will be used in some of our forecasting assumptions. But for outside audiences, you can use whatever assumption you think is appropriate as you project forward our growth in accounts. The last thing I'd leave you with is just to be clear, we -- for our own growth rates in our models, we assume a mix of bond rate -- bond fund and equity funds. So, it's -- that number is -- we use an 80/20 mix. And so you wind up with an overall return that's more like in the 6.5 to seven range on account value overall.