Earnings Labs

Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD)

Q4 2020 Earnings Call· Tue, May 12, 2020

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Transcript

Nicholas Read

Management

Welcome, everyone, and I hope you are all keeping safe. And thank you for taking the time to join us today. In these challenging times, we all need to adapt, which also includes the way we communicate our results. Margherita and I are speaking to you directly from our homes, enabled by Vodafone's communication services. I'd like to start my presentation by sharing some of the actions our team have taken to support society during this period of crisis. We took early and rapid actions to ensure that our own business could operate at full strength, and we're able to swiftly move our focus on to supporting our customers and society in general. In early March, we set out a 5-point plan to coordinate a comprehensive and consistent set of supporting actions throughout our markets. Clearly, our mobile and fixed network infrastructure plays a critical role in keeping societies connected and enabling governments to deliver the response needed to fight the pandemic. I'm very proud of the speed and reliability of our networks during a period in which we have seen such a dramatic rise in usage. Mobile data traffic has increased by 15% in Europe, voice traffic by as much as 40% and fixed data traffic by as much as 70% in some of our markets. To meet this demand, we've accelerated investment in a number of areas to boost network capacity, and we have seen minimal disruption to service across our markets as a result. Secondly, we provided critical support to frontline health workers across Europe and Africa. Our teams have connected new field hospitals, donated equipment and services and provided extra mobile packages so that they could always remain connected. Third, access to information has been vital in limiting the outbreak and keeping the general public aware…

Margherita Valle

Management

Good morning, everyone. As Nick has already highlighted, we delivered a good financial performance this year and met our FY '20 guidance. We grew organic service revenue by 0.8%. And our momentum accelerated throughout the year with growth above 1% in the second half, driven by Europe. We grew EBITDA by 2.6% to €14.9 billion, and our EBITDA margin improved to 33.1%. This is our fifth consecutive year of margin expansion. Adjusted earnings per share declined by around €0.01, principally driven by increased financing costs and a higher share count following the issuance of new mandatory convertible bonds. You will find a full summary of our statutory results in our appendices. We increased free cash flow pre spectrum to €5.7 billion and free cash flow after spectrum to just under €5 billion. Having largely reshaped the group around 2 scaled regional platforms, Europe and Africa, it's now the right time to start reporting on our return on capital. This is a new external metric, but it has been for many years a significant factor in our internal planning and capital allocation processes. We have included both pre- and post-tax measures to better assist comparison, and we will report on it regularly in the future. While the level of returns is still too low, the actions we have taken during the year to improve our commercial performance, transform our cost base and simplify our portfolio helped deliver an 80 basis point improvement in pretax returns to 6.1%. This is something that we will continue to work on. And Nick will illustrate later the steps we are taking to improve our asset utilization and strengthen our relationship with regulators. Turning next to our trading performance. A key priority this year was to improve our commercial momentum across our markets. The 2 charts…

Nicholas Read

Management

Thank you, Margherita. I have always started our strategic review with our purpose, as it defines everything we do as a company. Our purpose is to connect for a better future, framed by 3 areas of focus: digital society, inclusion for all and planet. I will talk you through these in a moment. Our strategy is to be a technology communications leader enabling a digital society, more relevant than ever in a world that will be permanently changed by the impact of COVID-19. Our significant work to simplify our portfolio over the last 18 months will enable us to focus our attention on 2 attractive regions in which we have a scale advantage. In Europe, we aim to be the converged communications leader now with a converged offer available in all of our markets. In Africa, we are focused on being the leading data and digital payments provider in all our markets. Our regional operations are underpinned by leading gigabit networks; our best-in-class shared service centers; and global platforms such as Vodafone TV, IoT and M-Pesa. To deliver our strategy, we are focused on 4 priorities, all of which remain highly relevant in the years ahead, but I will take the opportunity to highlight the areas of heightened focus within them to ensure Vodafone emerges stronger following this challenging period. Many of you attended our open office event in November, where we expanded upon our purpose and our ambitious targets. Whilst our current focus is to support society during this phase of recovery, we don't want to lose sight of some of our longer-term targets. To demonstrate our commitment to these goals both internally and externally, we felt it was important to include for the first time specific targets in our long-term incentive plans. In digital society, we are playing…

Margherita Valle

Management

I'm sorry. There is no noise at my end. I cannot hear you.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Now there's a good reason for this. It's because I had on mute. So just to say thank you for joining us and listening to the presentation. We're now open for Q&A. I am told that, all analysts that have registered on the call, if you'd -- you're assumed to be making a question, so if you don't want to make a question or give a question, then please e-mail the IR team now. [Operator Instructions]. And I believe the first question is going to Emmet from Morgan Stanley. Who is...

Q - Emmet Kelly

Analyst

I hope you can hear me.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Absolutely.

Emmet Kelly

Analyst

Super. I've just got the one question, as you mentioned, Nick. Obviously, the lockdown has been very challenging for everybody across society, but as I've seen a lot of articles written, could you imagine the lockdown without the Internet and without being connected? So clearly, companies like Vodafone have played a very key role in keeping, we'd say, companies connected, keeping governments connected. I've got 2 kids at home that are doing e-schooling. I'm able to chat with you today. In the evening, we all watch a lot of Netflix or BBC iPlayer. Can you just maybe say a few words on what you think this means for the telco industry and for Vodafone maybe going forward? What are the likely takeaways of the COVID crisis for the telco industry? What's really going to change? So rather than looking at 10 bps or 20 bps of service revenue growth every quarter, what does this mean? Is this going to accelerate the move towards unlimited? Could we finally maybe see some better regulation from national regulators or maybe more consolidation from [indiscernible] in Brussels? What does it really mean for the industry going forward?

Nicholas Read

Operator

Yes, Emmet. That's an excellent question. Actually, you're sort of reflecting, in a way, the whole conversation we were having at the Board. Because at the Board we were talking about our strategy process and in what way would we do it differently this year. And one of the things that we were talking about was -- I think it's the moment where you step back and say, "I think there will be behavioral changes, structural changes to society across the board over the next 10 years as a result of this." And therefore, what are the opportunities for us as a business to, if you like, get stronger through a recession? Clearly there's going to be recession, maybe very deep, maybe very prolonged. We don't know. There are many different views. If I park the recessionary impact to one side and sort of look at it from a structural perspective, I'd say probably 3 points. First is you've got a situation where there has definitely been an appreciation for quality. People are understanding the quality of networks now. They understand that they're critical to their lives. I think they're starting to say for themselves, "For €2, €3 more, would I rather be on a quality network?" It's interesting to see touch point NPS and customer reaction to our services. I mean we've got -- I've never been so overwhelmed personally from so many positive comments from governments, charities, companies, consumers about how we've helped them through this crisis. And I think that's really positive for us as a brand. I'm sure that's happening to other quality telcos as well, but it won't be every telco in the sector. I'd say -- but a really good data point is we monitor Facebook analytics. In Italy, we are now the lowest-churning…

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from James Ratzer at New Street.

James Ratzer

Analyst

Yes [Technical Difficulty] I had a question, if possible...

Nicholas Read

Operator

Sorry. We lost your connection there a little bit.

James Ratzer

Analyst

Okay. Great. No, I'm back. I'm just trying to say question. I imagine you were expecting on the U.K. market a deal between -- announced between Liberty and Telefónica. Would be interest in just hearing kind of your reactions to that. Were you involved in negotiations in that asset? Why you felt the deal went with Telefónica rather than yourself and whether that you feel has a broader impact on your U.K. business in the medium term. Do you need to consider more M&A in the U.K. market yourself?

Nicholas Read

Operator

Yes. James, thanks. I think I will start off by saying we're very happy with our organic strategy. We have been happy with our organic strategy. I think you saw from the results the U.K. is really performing. And I think that the market conditions, if you like, strategically for us are favorable. So let me just maybe talk to those. I think, from a performance perspective, you've seen service revenue 1.2% in Q4. You see that we're growing in both Consumer and enterprise. We're taking share in both segments. We've had a record fixed broadband net add performance, 64,000 net adds. So we know how to sell fixed in this marketplace. And you've seen EBITDA increasing by over 10% over the course of the year. So if I stand back, I mean, I'm really delighted with our performance in the U.K. I think we have real momentum and the right formula going forward. If I look at the sort of market from a asset position and structural position, a couple of points I'd made: Clearly, you all know we bought Cable & Wireless. That gave us convergence for businesses. The Business part of our operation is 50% of our business there in the U.K., which is a lot higher than many of our other operations throughout Europe. Ourselves and BT combined are just under 80% of the market share of Business, and therefore I really think we're in a strong position as the challenger against BT. You then take our mobile. We were sort of co-best along with EE in terms of quality of network. We have access to CTIL, the tower company, for scaled synergies and economics so we can compete on a unitary cost and coverage quality basis. And of course, we have a strong spectrum holding,…

James Ratzer

Analyst

Great. So no plans there to counterbid at all.

Nicholas Read

Operator

I think, by very pleased with the organic strategy, you have your answer.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Akhil from JPMorgan.

Akhil Dattani

Analyst

I've got a question on return on capital. I guess, firstly, an interesting addition to your reporting, so keen to understand what the rationale was for adding it at this point. There's one version of technical point, which is just is the net operating asset number adjusted for write-downs. Or is this a underlying number? So just to understand how you calculate it. But the broader question is that the 4% post-tax return is, as you said yourself, quite low. I'm just interested to get some color on how that varies by market, how you think about target returns. So what you're really aspiring to when you look at the group. And what do you think is key to improving that return? Is it growth? Is it cost cutting? Or is it, as you talked about, Nick, trying to broaden your portfolio into a new environment to try and tackle new opportunities?

Nicholas Read

Operator

Well, maybe Margherita will go through the 6 parts of your question, and then I'll do -- finish.

Margherita Valle

Management

Sure. Akhil, I think you asked about why now, how the numbers are calculated and also what we can do and what our targets are going forward. So if I start taking the first part: The why now is a -- is very, very simple. As you know, we have worked very hard in the last about 18 months to simplify our group structure around two regional platforms, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. This process is now largely complete, so I felt it was really the right point in time and the right baseline to start disclosing return on capital and monitoring it over the next few years. As you can imagine, internally we have not started looking at it now. Internally, return on capital has been probably the beginning of -- and the end of all our planning processes and all our capital allocation processes. And actually, three years ago, we also changed our bonus schemes to make sure everyone had very, very clear our focus by introducing EBIT instead of EBITDA. So it's always been really a protagonist in our planning, but now we have a stable base to also allow you to follow our progress going forward. How is it calculated? It's a very simple calculation. I think there is an appendix that illustrates the moving parts given it's the first time. It's not adjusted, to your question, because we want you to be able to reconcile every number to our balance sheet and P&L. And therefore, no underlying adjustments have been made. Clearly, you mentioned difference by markets and what we are targeting. We are not disclosing return on capital by market, but I think you can work out pretty easily the various ranges. What we do is we target each market to exceed its own cost [indiscernible] planning periods. And I can talk to what we are doing, if you want, organically inside the company to do that, which are the key levers you were mentioning. I would say, clearly, at the numerator in terms of return, it's our EBIT growth. And for us, the 2 biggest levers of EBIT growth I could peek at this point in time is, on the revenue side, share reduction; and then on the costs side, clearly, our cost transformation to digital and our shared services. But the denominator, so the capital employed, is equally very important. And there in our new strategy we have really focused to move at pace on network sharing precisely in order to improve returns, but beyond that you called out industry structure, and I would maybe leave it to Nick to comment on how we are working on this at the moment.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Yes. I mean just to build on the industry side. I mean it goes back a bit to the social contract that we were talking about. In the end, there's too many competitors and it's too capital intensive as a market throughout Europe. I think that regulators have focused on price more than quality. They've encouraged new entrants; done spectrum set-asides, favorable access terms, which if you like have undermined returns. And I think we have always shown a return on capital and highlighted this too, but I think to visibly publish it, I think, is an important step in trying to make them understand that we need to improve the situation. I have been talking about social contract since I came into the role. I am encouraged because, put COVID-19 aside for all the reasons I said on the first question, we did the U.K. rural initiative, which I think was a good first step; German government in terms of subsidy and support on rural staged payments on spectrum after the price came out higher than they expected. So I think we're starting to see -- and probably the most significant, which I was highlighting in the presentation, was the EC's approval of the INWIT transaction because it was really for I was trying to establish a strategic model for approvals going forward for the industry. So I'd say regulators and governments are starting to understand the need to support the industry and the criticality of our industry and that the returns are not where they need to be. Of course, proof is in the pudding, actions, but I'd say we're starting to get the bread crumbs and are starting to shape in the right direction, right, and a quality conversation, with some good outcomes.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Lee at Goldman Sachs.

Andrew Lee

Analyst

I actually wanted to follow up on Akhil's on the returns. I think it's great that you're now disclosing return on capital. It's really helpful for us. And while the absolute level is depressed, the direction of travel has clearly been really positive. There were a couple of questions of Akhil's that maybe weren't answered, and maybe that's because you don't want to talk or can't at this point in time, but I'm just going to maybe reask them. One was, can you improve return on capital this year? And secondly, where do you think the return on capital should be on a medium-term outlook, maybe in the next 3 years, given the current regulatory environment? If you can't answer those, then an additional question will be on any incremental color you could give on the commission or distribution costs, which you've also targeted to reduce over the next couple of years? And just wondered if you could give some scale and timing of those cost reductions.

Nicholas Read

Operator

I think Margherita can do all of those ones.

Margherita Valle

Management

All mine, so I'll cover both aspects, Andrew. On return on capital, can we improve it? We are coming out with a very good momentum from FY '20. I think you have seen the numbers. We were growing revenues, growing EBITDA, growing cash flow; and we're on an acceleration path. So what I was looking forward to guide you towards was another year of further acceleration on all this growth. Now we have COVID and we had to review our position. And you have heard that we expect, with the information we have now, to see EBITDA being stable to slightly negative in the year. May be a prudent view but a view we felt was appropriate in the circumstances. So can returns still grow this year? I think it still is a possibility, but we felt it was more appropriate to guide towards this type of EBITDA and for EBIT performance in the year. Your second part on returns was how far can it go. And I think our target, as I mentioned earlier, is obviously to exceed cost of capital, and that's what we plan for. The levers are the one we mentioned earlier. And I think a lot of the speed of improvement will also depend on the potential overall industry improvement. If I move down...

Nicholas Read

Operator

Can I just -- sorry. Can I just build on Margherita's point there? When she says we planned for it: We review the 3-year, 5-year long-range plans of all of the markets; the strategies; the commercial actions; et cetera. We start with return on capital. So they have to demonstrate to us that they are going past a market cost of capital. And if they don't, we often ask that company to come back with more radical structural changes to achieve the goal. So it's very much at the forefront of how we shape the strategic long-range plans.

Margherita Valle

Management

Indeed. And I was thinking our CEOs on the call will recognize this very clearly. We start the process with return targets, and we close the process with return targets because it's iterative to make sure we achieve this cost of capital threshold. I think there was a second part to James's -- Nick, am I allowed to cover the second part from Andrew?

Nicholas Read

Operator

Sure.

Margherita Valle

Management

Where do we think cost reduction can come, I think, was the angle and particularly around commission. As you know, we were embarked in a distribution transformation through digital, and we think that this will continue and actually accelerate in the current environment. I always said in the past, when we were talking about costs, that I was seeing further opportunities, but the mix of the opportunities may change over time. As you can see, we have more ground to cover on OpEx with another €1 billion, but on top of that, we are now adding the commission opportunity. Think about commission as €2.5 billion that we spend every year in our markets, and we do this today with just above 20% of our sales being digital. So of course, as this will continue to increase over time and as we will progress on our distribution transformation, you can expect for the first time the commission pot to start actually reducing in absolute. And this is the big difference. The €2.5 billion in the past have always been either flat or increasing year-on-year. We are now confident that together with OpEx this P&L line will deliver a net reduction over time.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Georgios at Citigroup.

Georgios Ierodiaconou

Analyst

I was wondering if you can give us a bit more detail on COVID-19 impact across the different countries. And I appreciate it's mainly 3 pieces. It's roaming. It's cost savings you may achieve, and it's also about debt provisions. If you can give us an indication. I believe in the slide you suggest that Spain could be hit hard because of SME. Germany could be resilient. If you could walk us through the top 4 markets on that, it would be great. And just based on the COVID-19 impact on the cost savings, you mentioned the €2.5 billion of commissions. Can we get an indication how much of that is variable? So if churn was to benefit, we can give you some credit even if that's delayed.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Margherita, do you want to cover it?

Margherita Valle

Management

Sure. First of all, COVID, I will maybe start by painting the bigger picture, Georgios, if you allow me, and then just call out the different markets' position because I think that can be useful. As you've heard in our presentation, we are as an industry more resilient to COVID impacts, but we are certainly not immune. So we have seen strong demand for our services, but equally we have seen 3 things, and you called them out. First of all, roaming, with the travel reduction. Second, we are starting to see some signals of tension in our B2B business. And there I would call out particularly SMEs, but also on the larger end, on big corporates, there are some delays in project spend from the big corporates. And then as I -- as we go through the year, I think it is possible that we may see then impacts from a deeper and broader recession. Now on a market-by-market basis, to your point, I think there are -- all these trends are common to all areas. Maybe I would call out two extremes, if you want, in the range of our 4 markets. First of all, you mentioned Spain. I think Southern Europe is going to be hit by the travel suspensions. Keep in mind we are getting into the peak season of tourism. Roaming revenues are more geared towards the first half of the year in total, and this clearly will hit a receiving country like Spain. Just keep in mind that this is not reflected one to one into total European performance for Vodafone because clearly some of the roamers in Spain are coming from the U.K., and therefore we have a number of intercompany elimination in-between that make the impact strong. But I think, considering both…

Nicholas Read

Operator

Yes. Can I just do a quick build on Margherita's point? Because there's 2 important sort of factors that I'm sure you'll ask, anyway. So Margherita has pointed out the fact that we're not making a big assumption on volume drop in A&R because we've got commercial momentum. We're performing well. So if the volume is there, we want to make sure that we are taking the volume. The volume might be structurally down in the marketplace, in which case, of course, we will save that cash, and it will have a benefit to the EBITDA. The other factor is also CapEx and mobile CapEx because we set ourselves the ambition of co-best on CapEx. And so we want to be putting in the CapEx to always ensure we have a good, resilient network. If incumbents around us slow down the coverage or their capital spend, then of course we will moderate that as well, but we'd held our CapEx assuming most of them will do a similar type of performance. So again, both of these were factored in within the overall outlook we were looking at.

Georgios Ierodiaconou

Analyst

Very clear. Maybe if I -- it's very clear. Maybe on one point, on bad debt provisions, which you mentioned earlier, and delays in payments, is there a particular market you have in mind?

Margherita Valle

Management

Not -- if I can, Nick. Not really. I think it's fair to say that, as we have closed the year in March, we have not seen any material impact in particular in the Consumer space. We don't see any significant change of behavior at this point in time. It's a little bit different in enterprise because, as we have gone through April, we have started to get some, arguably so far not many but some, requests from SMEs predominantly of either suspension of or delays of payments. So we see this as something that may be gradually building throughout the year.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Polo at UBS.

Polo Tang

Analyst

Yes. I just have one question in terms of German broadband. Can you give us a sense in terms of what percentage of your German gross adds are coming onboard with the 1-gigabit speeds? Separately, if we look at broadband retail pricing in Germany, it's been roughly static around about €30 to €35 per month. Therefore, how optimistic are you that German consumers will pay more for faster broadband speeds going forward? And then also, just to look at Deutsche Telekom: It's actually started offering free Disney+ as part of its bundles. So is this impacting your broadband momentum in Germany for the current quarter?

Nicholas Read

Operator

Look, let me do a high level. And then if there's a data point or 2, Margherita? But I would say the promotion that we ran, fastest speed in town, was very effective. We doubled the size of the gigabit base we had, and so I think the demand is there at the right price points. And of course, what we then did was take that promotion out of the marketplace and then put in our pricing. I think the pricing was well judged against the DT's positioning. What we're trying to do is obviously, from the point you're really making about where pricing is today, is make it an ARPU-accretive move as people move up the speed ladder, and we are seeing that come through the numbers.

Margherita Valle

Management

Just in terms of data point. You asked what percentage of gross adds are coming at 1 gigabit per second. We are not disclosing the full breakdown, but I can say that over 60% of our gross adds are over 400 gigabit per second, and this number is above 85% if you take the 250 megabit per second level. And we have really seen good ARPU accretion in the recent month as not just new customers come in with high speeds, but predominantly our own customer base is moving up the ladder. Effectively, speed increase is the more for more, I think, for fixed broadband. And I think it's in everyone's mind, what speeds can bring those days. And it's definitely reflected in the results we are seeing in Germany, as Nick mentioned, in terms of how fast the top-speed plans are growing.

Polo Tang

Analyst

Are there any impacts in the current quarter...

Nicholas Read

Operator

Okay. Maybe we'll just -- we probably just need to get it a bit shorter to get through everyone.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Sam at Exane.

Samuel McHugh

Analyst

Just a very quick question on kind of your guidance, I guess. If you look at your slides, I think you said that the roaming revenues have declined maybe 65%, 75%, so far. When I think about the guidance, are you assuming within the kind of slight decline in EBITDA that you kind of flagged that there will be basically no roaming at all? And when I think about these other pockets of headwinds, do you think they could be as big as the kind of €450 million, €500 million roaming headwinds? I'm just trying to understand how conservative you've been.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Margherita?

Margherita Valle

Management

Sure. Clearly, we are sharing with you our view on EBITDA, but we are not in this instance sharing an actual guidance range. But if I can give a little bit more color around what we see on the back of the prevailing view of the economic assessment, I think you move from what I would call the top end. Stable implies a degree of recovery on the travel patterns and therefore the roaming trends in the second half of the year. So better than the minus 70% we see now. And at the lower end, if you want, on the slightly down side of the equation, what you would have is no significant roaming recovery and the combination of pressure from a broader negative economic outturn if this is what we will see. So that's a little bit how we have been thinking about the 2 extremes. From a cost perspective, we have factored in obviously our transformation numbers as well as a degree of stability in our capital intensity, which is what Nick was explaining earlier, and no major volume changes.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Nick at Redburn.

Nick Delfas

Analyst

Yes. Just two questions from me. First of all, you haven't talked very much about Net Promoter Scores. And obviously, with all these changes in distribution, how are you seeing those evolve? And secondly, on Huawei, could you talk a little bit about how you see the costs relating to reducing exposure to Huawei and what kind of percentages in the network you're thinking of for the next few years?

Nicholas Read

Operator

Okay. I would say -- sorry. The first point was again -- sorry.

Nick Delfas

Analyst

Net Promoter Scores.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Yes, net promoter. So what I would say is that we have two types of net promoter. One is touch point NPS. So in other words, that -- it's real time. You call the call center. You're asked to give feedback immediately. We monitor all the touch points around our business. I would say we've had favorable trends on touch point NPS as we've done better products, better network quality, all of the things that you're seeing us gain commercial advantage on. And momentum is being reflected, lower churn, et cetera. So good correlation. I would say that the lag NPS, which is the more survey-orientated NPS we do into the market versus competitors, has been a little static, and we've been puzzling as to why that is. We need to understand if it's more segment orientated. So is it a case of we've got some -- a lot of people that are very happy, but then we've got some other people in other segments that are not? So we need to do more analysis of why we've not moved. We're reflecting as a management team. We would have expected with the commercial momentum we've got that, that lag NPS would have moved more significantly. You never know. In 2 quarters time, it might start moving. But so work to be done there, I would say. Just in terms of Huawei. We're now expecting the European markets to come back on the tool kit and the implementation of that tool kit in June. So there hasn't been a move on the date. Maybe with COVID-19 there might be a delay. I would say, obviously, we've said that we're taking the core out of Europe. That was a €200 million hit for us but spread over a 4- to 5-year time horizon, so we'll absorb it within the capital intensity that we have planned. As of this moment, I'm not expecting additional, if you like, capital pressures. I do think that governments have now sort of realized, even though of course there are macro tensions, here if we were doing a network swap today, it would have been catastrophic for the performance of the networks at a critical site. So I think a lot of governments have gone, "Now we understand all the arguments of why it's so important and delicate to handle this over long time horizons," and allow us to do it in a moderated way where we balance and develop more diversity of vendors. So you've seen our announcements with open RAN. We've committed -- we want to do open RAN, but open RAN is a longer-term project and you need time to do that over a significant number of years. So as long as we have time and we do things moderately, we don't see this as being an economic downside for our business.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David at BAML.

David Wright

Analyst

Listen, just to, I guess, express some appreciation from our side too for the measures that Vodafone has taken over the last couple of months. It is very much appreciated. And then just on to my question: Just on the wider portfolio, you've talked about ROCE being a target that you're obviously publishing now but has clearly been key to your discussions with the regional businesses over the last few years. I guess the question is, are there any real sort of sacred cows here? If your 5 major markets, the big 4 Europeans and Africa, are not making their ROCE targets on a midterm view, are these assets that you could even consider to divest at some point? They've obviously had a pretty good chance to achieve their results over the last few years. I wonder when you're really drawing the line. And just subsequently on the portfolio, a little softening in the language of Egypt. I think you'd said calendar H1 this year. Obviously, we've seen the buyer delay it on funding process, and you're now saying fiscal 2021. So is it more like a kind of end of the fiscal year now with that in mind?

Nicholas Read

Operator

So David, a very good question in terms of market reviews, and that's what I was trying to stress. When we sit down and look at the strategy and the long-range plan of each market, we have to be convinced there's a path to making the cost of capital on a market basis. If they can't do it through their organic plan, then we start to look at structurally how can we reshape that business within the context of that marketplace. So it is a very rigorous conversation. It leads to restructurings of business. I mean I'd point to Spain as a really good example of one where, a couple of times, we stepped back. I mean coming out of football was a very significant decision, going more digital, channel management. You'll see us take actions on indirect channels, as an example, where we see the economics is not as favorable as we want in some markets to improve the long-term returns for that marketplace. Network sharing was another way of us improving the returns on a local market, having the CEOs go to governments and look for administrative spectrum in terms of instead of large auctions or moderating the amount of spectrum that they need. All of these things, we go through market by market. So I would say we work them actively, and that's why you see the progress that we've made by portfolio and by market. I will say to Egypt specifically: Look, it's really been hit by COVID-19. You can't really close out due diligence and full government engagement if no one can travel. So though they're making a lot of good progress, ultimately stc top management needs to be in Egypt, needs to engage with the government, finish off their due diligence. So we just extended the MOU to allow that to happen, and obviously there's a number of conditions that need to be fulfilled. We're going through all of that with them as we speak.

Operator

Operator

Nick, I think, time-wise, this is our last question, which comes from Robert at Deutsche Bank.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Robert, you're big the finale...

Operator

Operator

We seem to have lost Robert. Can we move on to Jerry then as -- Jerry from Jefferies as the last question?

Jeremy Dellis

Analyst

Yes. I have a question really on the competitive conditions, just a question on competitive conditions, please, coming out of lockdown. I think we've seen in Spain what's arguably a bit of a competitive escalation around unlimited data at some quite aggressive price points, and I just wonder whether you're seeing the early signs of this in other markets. And perhaps a little bit of detail on how you plan to cope. I suppose, relative to sort of previous sort of recessions, there is now much more in the way of sort of no-frills players. So customers could, if they so wish, find sort of maybe good-enough service at lower price points. So I'm sure you have a sort of plan to manage that. It will just be interesting to know how you plan to sort of handle that and whether you think it's really an issue.

Nicholas Read

Operator

Yes. If I was calling out, just very quickly, where do we see increasing competitive tension. Spain, TEF, unlimited, not speed tiered in mobile, that was a pretty aggressive move. It's a shame that Orange and TEF didn't go speed tiered. It was missed opportunity. Glad to see that O2 in Germany did go speed tiered. So it shows that people can follow the right model, in my opinion, for accretion of ARPU. So fine, there's been a slight elevation in Spain. And I'd say probably fixed in Italy has oscillated between ultra aggressive at €20 and slightly below, up to €35. We're sort of sitting in the €27 zone at the moment. So I would say they're the two. Most of the others are generally. I mean O2 in the U.K. was a bit aggressive in quarter four. I think that was quite promotional and indirect, Carphone Warehouse-driven, but generally I'd say most people have just been stable at the moment. I think you make an interesting observation. If I stand back: Our business is very different from what it used to be. And I think you'll see in that commercial performance coming through we've been really consistent in our commercial strategy. So though you might see variations by market, the framework is the same. And the framework is we're going to compete in high, mid and low. So we're doing unlimited speed tiered in the high. We're often deploying second brands in the low. We are gaining traction across the board in all of those segments, and we monitor our share in each of those segments. If a competitor moves, we move very quickly. So we don't give them, if you like, this time lag advantage of response anymore. We are immediate. You know where we stand relative…

Nicholas Read

Operator

Thank you very much, everyone, for listening. Great questions, as always. We look forward to seeing you soon. Stay safe, from both myself and Margherita. Take care.