Earnings Labs

Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 1, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello and welcome to today's Vodafone Group Trading Update Analyst and Investor Call and throughout this all participants will be in listen-only mode and afterwards there will be a question-and-answer session. And just to remind you, this call is being recorded and today I'm pleased to present Vittorio Colao, Vodafone Group CEO and Nick Read, Vodafone Group CFO. Gentlemen, please begin.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Thank you Hugh [ph]. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to our trading update for the third quarter 2017/2018. I will take you through the quarters highlight and then Nick will focus on the trading performance in our major market before we move together to the usual Q&A. So I'll start on Slide 4 with the highlights for the quarter. Starting on the left. Our financial performance is similar to Q2 with 1.1% organic service revenue growth. Within this, we saw a modest slowdown in Europe to 0.3% and then acceleration in AMAP to 6.8%. As in prior periods these results include the material drag from EU regulation as well as the negative impact of handset financing in the UK. So our underlying growth was about 2% as Nick will explain later. Foundation of our growth is the leading our core leading network positions that we enjoy as a result of our substantial in-licensing. Mobile now reach 93% of the population with 4G and we have the best data networks in 14 out of 21 of our largest market. In fixed, we now reach 63% of our 104 million European homes with fiber of which 42 million are on our own network or via commercially attractive strategic partnership. This network leadership drives our three growth engines the usual ones; first mobile data which is on the third column in the slide which is growing still at 61% in Europe and AMAP supported by ongoing 4G adoption and larger data bundles following our successful more-for-more action. Second, next column fixed. Here we added 379,000 new broadband users in the quarter including a record 529,000 on NGN. Third enterprise 1.6% growth excluding EU regulation this reflect good trends in fixed and in IoT in most markets. Then in the final column on the right,…

Nick Read

Management

Thank you Vittorio and good morning, everybody. Turning to Page 12, as Vittorio has already highlighted we maintained a momentum in the third quarter with similar reported service revenue growth to Q2. The chart on the left-hand side of the page shows that our underlying performance excluding the drag from the EU regulation and the impact of UK handset financing was materially higher at 2.3% and a gain similar to prior quarter. In aggregate these drags on our reported growth were broadly similar quarter-over-quarter as the reduced drag from roaming post the peak summer quarter was offset by the growing impact of UK handset financing. Note that our low margin carrier businesses continued to drag on a year-on-year growth by around 70 basis points as was the case last quarter. This follows the implementation of a new traffic optimization engine which has improved profitability. The chart on the right shows the growth by region, as you can see Europe slowed on both a reported and underlying basis by around 15 basis points. The declining quarterly trends reflects the lapping of price rises in Italy and higher promotion intensity in Spain during Q3. Our underlying growth rate of around 2% reflects strong fixed growth of over 4% and mobile growth of around 1%. In AMAP growth accelerated to 6.8% from 6.2% reflecting a broad based improvement in Vodacom. Moving to Slide 13, you can see a summary as the competitive environment and commercial performance of our major European markets in the quarter. In Germany, the competitive landscape remained broadly stable. Our core leading network quality continued and support good customer base growth with 144,000 mobile contract and 89,000 broadband net additions in the quarter. Reported service revenue growth improved to 2.5% from 1.6% in Q2 reflecting lower regulatory drag through roaming…

Operator

Operator

Thanks, Nick. We'll now start the Q&A. [Operator Instructions] and the first question over the line of Akhil Dattani at JPMorgan. Please go ahead Akhil. Your line is now open.

Akhil Dattani

Analyst

Just a question on the service revenue growth outlook, please. And there's two little bits to it. The first is just on the data mentalization [ph]. Vittorio you mentioned that with the passes you're now revolving you're thinking a bit in certain markets now incorporate in other tariffs. So just keen to understand what do you see on the ground that's making you do that, is it competitive lead? Or is it a function of just changing your view. And the second Nick, mentioned the sim-only effect the handset financing drags. So clearly quite a few factors impacting your service revenue trends at the moment. I guess what I'm trying to understand is we move to IFRS 15, how will that impact this distortions and how will that impact the growth rate report. Thanks.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Thank you. Definitely the second question I'll leave it to Nick. On the first one let me - I think you said it, the passes have to be seen as part of our more-for-more strategy and of course they're impacted both by competitive dynamics but also by the type of offers that we have in different market. So it is clear that in certain market they are more standalone offers. In other markets, we have to include them or we want to include them into our converged offers or we want to include it into our sim-only offer. So at the end of the day, pass is another way to give worry-free usage in exchange for something and something is the underlying ARPU. At the end I would say comfort there is one slide in my pack, the slide that says taking out the distortions. Actually we see a pretty good net ARPU trend and with exception of Spain which was a bit promotional last quarter, so they're part of growth - overall strategy to monetize data and increase usage and they can be used flexibly in each market, to some extent in some markets even to the hour, they can be used. So I hope I answered your questions. Nick, IFRS 15?

Nick Read

Management

Yes, thank you. I mean obviously slightly complex topic. What I would say broadly on F 15 is because when you bring in F 15 you're effectively restating your previous year. You won't see a dramatic impact. You might actually see a slight improvement on service revenue growth. Mainly because you don't get the sim-only drag effect moving forward because of that restatement. So I think its important F 15 is sort of like a restated methodology and therefore, when you're looking at growth rate etc. not a big impact. I would say at the moment probably the most material impact we're getting in our results in sim-only in Germany and that's just under about 3 percentage points of drag given that drive.

Akhil Dattani

Analyst

Thanks. And Nick, can I just one forward? Do you think you'd stick to service revenues and ARPU 15 or do you think that would support a change to folks in one total?

Nick Read

Management

No, I think we'll still continue to have service revenue.

Vittorio Colao

Management

I personally think it's healthy, Akhil because again we need to look at stuff on which we make money. It's a little bit like enterprise. You know the more complex project we have like in the UK, the more we have harder equipment, the more harder distorts the real number like for example this quarter. So for me at the end of the day, I look at what generated cash flow, not at reported number. So in that sense, it's a positive. And sim-only can actually be good. It's not necessarily the fact that it looks like a lower number that you don't like it.

Nick Read

Management

Yes, importantly to Vittorio's point. You get a higher correlation with your EBITDA.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Yes and cash and everything, so it's good.

Akhil Dattani

Analyst

Makes sense.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Make your life harder, but it's good.

Operator

Operator

Okay. We're now over to Barclays and Maurice Patrick. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Maurice Patrick

Analyst

Question for me on spectrum please. So you have a number of spectrum auctions coming up. Some I think were combination of new licenses, some were renewals, some 700 megahertz probably expensive of a high frequency sort of 3.4 gigahertz. So the spectrum in aggregate the cost of spectrum probably goes up by your historical €1.2 billion a year but first on that, but also can you share with us how you expect to see as the bidding intensity across spectrum auctions in your key markets. You could argue that demand is probably higher given your strong dated growth, but then a lots of stretching coming up to [indiscernible] thoughts on competitive bidding. Thank you.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Yes, I leave to Nick the answer about the spreading and how much the €1.2 billion. Is an average and how much instead we have, we might have concentration in certain years. The second part of your question is intriguing because traditionally I would have said, how can I answer that? Auctions are auctions and it's always difficult to predict, how that would go. The reality is actually in your question, there's already an element of truth. We have more and more technology options. It's more and more possible to aggregate bands to exploit traffic in different ways. We can shut down certain elements. So my sense is that we will become more and more sophisticated overtime as long as we have of course some courage to make some decisions in terms of allocations of bands and use of bands. The actual result of each specific auction in the end will depend on how many people want to have the same band. But we will have more flexibility in the future. Nick on the financial impact of this.

Nick Read

Management

Yes, Maurice I mean just a piece of comprehensive. In terms of our expectation over sort of 2018, 2019 in terms of what are the up auctions coming up. We do have a large volume, so 2018 we're expecting UK, 2.3 and 3.5. Germany, 2.1 renewal and 3.5. Italy and Spain, 700 and 3.5. South Africa at some point I know I've been saying that for five years will come hopefully in 2018 and in 2019, UK 700 and Netherland 700 and 2.1. So you're right to call out the fact that it is heavier 18 months two years ahead of us. What I would say however though is I stress that these September point, the strength of our balance sheet leverage down its 2.2 times. So we got a strong balance sheet and we're prepared for the spectrum auctions and have planned for those auctions. And then finally I'd say that just in terms of the €1.2 billion long-term average I still feel that's a good number and it's certainly the number the board focuses on when thinking about dividend cover.

Maurice Patrick

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We're now over the line of Polo Tang at UBS. Please go ahead, Polo. Your line is open.

Polo Tang

Analyst

Just have one question in terms of the UK broadband market. You obviously have a part of [indiscernible] CityFibre in the UK for FTTH, but does this preclude you from wholesaling from Openreach and what do you think about announcement today from Openreach in overall FTTH to 3 million homes by 2020. Thanks.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Polo, it doesn't. Actually our commitment CityFibre is for the first million homes and then we'll see, what it'll do. If in the meantime, Openreach like they announced this morning wants to expand their reach. I mean that's fine as I said we just had 38,000 net adds in the quarter which is frequency that you know we start from small and it's not consumer broadening [ph] is not a traditional area for Vodafone UK, actually it's a pretty good result. So we're encouraged by the pickup especially from our own customers and there will always be a debate with Openreach about price and conditions and everything else. So per se the decision to expand is good, we will always want to be competitive in the market and also to be able to make some money or at least not lose money on those connections, but there is no - there's plenty of flexibility and they always say that our fixed broadband strategy is smart strategy, capital smart strategy so we'll not preclude any option, if it's economic.

Polo Tang

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We're now over to line of John Karidis at Numis. Please go ahead your line is open.

John Karidis

Analyst

My question is about India. Now there's a merger with Idea Cellular is near completion, what gives you confidence at execution there will be smoother than that in Australia with Hutchison. Is Bharti right to think that this merger is a good opportunity for them to poach a good chunk of your customers?

Vittorio Colao

Management

Yes, you would have to believe that if you were Bharti, right? So listen I don't want to answer in an arrogant way. We have been planning for this for a long time; don't forget that we need to lose some market share anyhow because we're in certain circles above the how you call, the cap, the competition cap. We have been planning for a long time. The two companies in a way here are more complementary. Don't forget it in Australia that was Canada prepaid versus contracting, that was a very different positioning and to some extent head on positioning of the two brands and then every market is a different story. So I will be not be arrogant, we have planned as well as we can, we know that we need to lose some, we are more complementary here than in Australia and we're confident that we'll do a good job, the results will be seen in the markets.

John Karidis

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We're now over to the line of Nick Delfas of Redburn. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Nick you may want to take your phone off mute. Nick, can you take your phone off mute.

Nick Delfas

Analyst

Nick Delfas from Redburn. I just wanted to confirm. Can you hear - [technical difficulty].

Operator

Operator

You're feeding in [technical difficulty].

Nick Delfas

Analyst

[Technical difficulty] apologies. I just wanted to.

Operator

Operator

Nick, can I please ask you to dial back from another number because your line is unfortunately not good. We go over to the line of Dhananjay Mirchandani, Bernstein. Please go ahead. Dhananjay, your line is now open.

Dhananjay Mirchandani

Analyst

Thanks for taking my questions. I'm [technical difficulty] new trends. So active prepaid ARPU was up, volumes while negatively improve sequentially and yet MSR is down 3%.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Dhananjay, we didn't hear first 10 seconds. First again please.

Dhananjay Mirchandani

Analyst

All right, well. Firstly good morning. Thank you for taking my question.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Good morning.

Dhananjay Mirchandani

Analyst

I'm really struggling to get my head around Italian mobile service revenue trends active user ARPU is up, volumes while negative is improve sequentially and yet service revenue is down roughly 3% and there is no real material drag from regulation. So I guess two parts of the question. Can you please be a bit more specific about what's causing this? And secondly, I think more crucially what do these dynamics imply going forward as Iliad already entered the market.

Nick Read

Management

Maybe if I take the first part and Vittorio will take the second part. Just from understanding the trends, I mean they're fairly straight forward and we have been sign posting these. So the mobile business down 2.9, why was it down? Or why is it being on a decline trend is because we did a series of price actions last year that were introduced over about six-month period. We were introducing 28-day billing, we started off with prepaid, we've evolved it into contracts, we've evolved it into fixed. And so phased over the years, so what you're seeing is slowly lapping all of those effects and some other more-for-more price actions we would take in. we're now fully lapping in this quarter, those price rises and of course given the competitive intensity in the market we're not able to do any further actions at this point in time. What I would say is, fantastic performance. I'd also take on the mobile side a very resilient performance given the pricing environment and I think it shows, the strength of our mobile network differentiated in the market place and the breadth of our distribution and the overall performance and besides being down in our SCM area. What I would say is also fixed is a strong performance 12% growth and has maintained very, very strong performance. Vittorio?

Vittorio Colao

Management

Yes, looking ahead Dhananjay. There's three things happening one, is the kind of change tariff adjustment that I think all players are making neutral, the 28 days to over month low requirement. So everybody is making that neutral for the customers and neutral to us. The second thing we are again pleased and we continue to leverage on our strength on fixed line which in Italy was particularly struggled in this quarter. We had 95,000 additions, we passed just after the end of the quarter. The 1 million fiber broadband homes, so it's clearly becoming Italy again with a different strategic path, but solid Spain or Germany in terms of convergence. We launched and we're competitive as the first Euro price point, the Vodafone One converged offer. What I see is, in the market we still have this below the line let me say €9, €10, 20 Gig. €9, €10, 30 Gig offers which of course are a little bit pre-emptive of the Iliad arrival and so we have to be careful not being dragged into this kind of portability games that other operators are deep into. We're ready to see the arrival of Iliad and I guess in May, you, I and all the other people in this call will have something interesting to talk about. We're just where we are last time, consolidating our base. Being competitive and pushing convergence is the strategy so far.

Dhananjay Mirchandani

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We're now over the line of Robert Grindle of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead Robert, your line is open.

Robert Grindle

Analyst

My question is about churn and impact on customer cost. It seems like contract churn has moved up in a few of the European markets. You flagged commercial activity in Spain etc. and I think Nick said something sim-only in Germany, but should we be concerned about rise in customer cost because of this or is it more about sim-only and we should be less worried about customer cost, which were actually very benign in the first half earlier year.

Nick Read

Management

Robert, I wouldn't be worried about customer cost. I would say that we are being - quite a lot of signs to our investments ensuring the right channel mix is driven as we've discussed before and CRM is targeted on a personalized one-to-one offer basis. So we're managing it if you like the economic value of the customer. Of course we'd stay focused on churn, we don't like churn and we're constantly trying to work it down. I would say we had a few promotional hits in the quarter and therefore churn picks up slightly, I don't see that as structural.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Yes. [Technical difficulty] content from a cost perspective the guidance is robust. We're also don't forget very focused on the transition to digital which is also another way to make sure that customer cost actually go directionally in the opposite direction. So here there are different forces at work. As I said no concern for the rest of the year, but also longer term the transformation into digital will make less I would say straight to link between promotional activities and customer cost. We can still have a bit of churn, but the cost can be managed better in a digital environment rather than in the street as you all know.

Robert Grindle

Analyst

Great to hear, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Okay, we're now over to line of Jonathan Dann, RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jonathan Dann

Analyst

It's a question on the de-convergence [ph] trends. It looks each quarter as though net adds as convergence is sort of cracking just below net adds of the broadband base. So I was wondering would you ever expect to see a sort of rapid expansion of convergence through the back half of existing customers.

Nick Read

Management

I'd say our primary focus at the moment is actually driving fixed net adds performance. I mean in the end customers are switching over to NGN networks and there's a window of opportunity that we're really trying to exploit. At the same time, we then try and once we have the base convert them across the convergence. So I would say that's why you're seeing trends go up.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Yes, I would say we have an opportunity. We're delivering well on fixed because we have an opportunity we're newcomer to the game and as I said, I think our strategy market-by-market is smart and that is the strategy, then how much you push for convergence depends also a lot on the specific conditions on the market. In the Netherland where KPN is highly converged is clear that our objective and we're already with Ziggo big in cable. It's obvious that our push is for convergence. In Italy as I said for example we played a little bit of mix game. The first objective is to get fixed broadband customers. Now we launch also the Vodafone One and we also have a little bit of acceleration in the converged piece, but it depends on the state of maturity of the market of Vodafone and the opportunities that we have in front of us.

Jonathan Dann

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We now go over to Mandeep Singh at Redburn. Please go ahead.

Mandeep Singh

Analyst

So the question I really had was coming back to what Akhil was saying in the beginning, if you focus on net ARPU which is sort of gross margin EBIT sort of metric that you can track better than we can because you don't have the disclosure, we don't have the disclosure. I mean, if ex-regulatory impacts, ex-handset financing. Would the growth rate that we're experiencing will be substantially better than what we see presented in service revenue trends. I know you can't necessarily give us a number, but just directionally in orders of magnitude please.

Vittorio Colao

Management

I leave the quantitative part of the answer to Nick, who's kind of scratching his head now. But directionally you're right that's what I really look at and that what tell us if the market is healthy and I have to say in that sense, the more-for-more strategy is exactly what is trying to achieve, to achieve that the net income for us would even ground including commercial cost because at the end of the day, the more we are digital, the more we can manage that part in a proactive way, not just being victims of what happened in the industry, the net margin to us is an important thing. And in the future, we will become more similar to an Amazon or to a one of this players who really look at the net margins that they can derive from any commercial operation after digital acquisition and customer management cost. I understand your life would be more difficult, we'll do our best to be transparent. Unfortunately there's also accounting changes in the way, but directionally that's what I think our dialog should be on, because this is real measure of their health, of the customer. Nick, did I give you enough time to?

Nick Read

Management

You gave me enough time to think through. I mean, how I look at it Mandeep. If you take the mobile contract European ARPU, you're talking we're down about 2.6% year-over-year, off that 2.6% and I'm talking broadly I'd say about 2 percentage points, these are regulations or UK handset financing, so we're just slightly down, why we're slightly down. We're little bit sim-only drag and then probably a little bit of I would say end surprised price pressure in the market place on renegotiation. You're talking for broadly stable as a dynamic. I have to be honest increasingly. There are so many distortions going on in mobile ARPU. So given example you know in Netherlands did an operational review therefore a couple of days and as we drive as Vittorio said, drive a convergence into the back. We're applying a €5 discount to the converged package onto mobile. Now it's an allocation methodology that's simple about the same time just looks like mobile's in decline. When in fact what we're really doing is improving the performance, the economies of the customer and life time value on a converged package. Mobile ARPU in around and mobile service revenue, lots of allocations there overtime. So I can see this overtime moving more to what's the total revenue of the company, the customer, etc.

Mandeep Singh

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. I was just following up for Nick, who had troubled dialing from a busy landline.

Nick Read

Management

Yes, I can imagine.

Operator

Operator

Okay, we're now over to David Wright, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead David, your line is now open.

David Wright

Analyst

Just a question on India, where you've obviously had the deal announced. I guess give or take year ago it initially looked a little stretch from a gearing perspective, you sense out some changes the MTR cuts and obviously the competitive intensity remains volatile, you just announced the recapitalization, is that it now? Are we done into deal closure? Or can you foresee the need for any more capital into that business? For instance you think in this etc. or do we think we're done, thank you.

Nick Read

Management

We've taken, David a number of actions as you've seen there's the €1.8 billion incremental equity, we've done the €1 billion proceeds of the standalone towers. We're actively working on Indus Towers so you got the 11% ultimately let's call that another €1 billion going in. You add on top that we've been working in discussions with the government about spending the spectrum license. We think - that will go through this month, so going from 10 years to 2016 improves if like that liquidity position. And of course significant synergies to come. So yes it does rely on the direction of the market. We think the current position is an unsustainable one because we're underneath cost for all players and so let's see if it was just a moment of excessive intensity given a lot of players were exiting the market and I think there was a little bit of land grab for those customers, but no we're confident that any support that we may be required on funding going forward. We've got the Indian Tower efforts and therefore won't have an impact at good reported leverage position.

David Wright

Analyst

Just to be clear, this is not beyond the original Indus Tower and you're not talking any of your Indus effort outside the perimeter of the original plan, is that correct?

Nick Read

Management

As is point in time, we're exactly per our initial plan. Reports we have, a sizable Indus slate [ph] sitting over in India as well and of course we said all along that slate that could get liquidated overtime and we'll see what we'll do with funds.

David Wright

Analyst

And still calendar first half or was it, fiscal first half targets of completions.

Nick Read

Management

I think [technical difficulty].

David Wright

Analyst

Calendar. That's all the questions I guess. Thank you very much guys.

Operator

Operator

Okay. We're now over to San Dhillon at Exane. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

San Dhillon

Analyst

So I guess your thunder was somewhat stolen this morning, given that one of your European telecom player made a larger bid for a content broadcast company. I would love to get your views on kind of convergence of TV and content into kind of fixed mobile bundle whether do you think that is important especially given that you have pretty large TV exposure through your cable acquisition churn in Germany, Spain and in the Netherlands as well.

Vittorio Colao

Management

Well this is big topic. I imagine you're referring to TDC. First of all I wouldn't call TV I will call video. Because what is TV and what is not, TV is becoming very blurred. Our position remains the same, we love to distribute video whether it's Netflix, the BBC, what other Sky, YouTube, we love it and we love to have to have the possibility to monetize it, whether it's on cable or on mobile it doesn't make a different. This is very different from the need to own kind of production asset. I'm sceptical about the need to one production asset. I'm sceptical about the ability to monetize exclusive content drive typically football or Soccer, which is usually very expensive and has become more and more expensive very hard to monetize in a direct way. That does not mean that some operator especially in particular kind of linguistic or cultural areas of the world might see a value in doing it. I still remain not convinced that at the end of the day content should go to everybody and I don't see few synergies in owning exclusive production or rights for a telecom operator. Unless you think you cannot distribute to your competitors and use it in a let's say anti-competitive way which usually the regulators don't allow. So we remain on our - we like to distribute, if we're forced we can also bid but we don't think it's value creating.

San Dhillon

Analyst

Okay, thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

We're now over to Andrew Lee at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Andrew your line is now open.

Andrew Lee

Analyst

I just wanted to follow-up on Robert's question around churn. I wondered can we go back to cost reductions and EBITDA today, if we could give us an update on your digitalization improvement on the top line and when we should start to see that coming through. If there is any stats you could give us on customer perception improvement from your digital tech you've incorporated so far, the NPS scores, churn, your cause into call center, successful conversion rates of upselling. If any, you could give us the - -can you show us the impact of any positive impact of digitalization on your top run today and if not, when should we start seeing that come through?

Vittorio Colao

Management

We prefer to give those details a little bit more time and a little bit kind of explanation, so probably May would be the right time and kind of in person presentation would be probably better. Let me say from my point of view this is a multiyear program. We are very optimistic about the ability to deliver real actual cost reduction from the digitalization and real actual improvements from the customer point of view in terms of the experience. Initially more on the consumer side and the enterprise side will take longer and we have I would say, we're already ahead of our implementation plan with more and more up cost coming onboard between now and April and whole of the Vodafone being full in the program next year. it's a multiyear program, so we had this topic over and over again, but I would say rather than giving kind of gross target that in the end complicated for you guys because then you need to see how much is really invested. I think you will see the benefits in net actual cost reductions. Nick, you want to give out more today or you were prefer to wait for May.

Nick Read

Management

I think we wait for May, I think you've summarized well.

Operator

Operator

Okay, due to time constraint. The final question for today is over to line of Justin Funnell, Credit Suisse. Please go ahead your line is open.

Justin Funnell

Analyst

I just wanted to touch on margins a bit. I mean without drawing you into conversation about next year's guidance. So if we can just take a look back at Slide 6, just to understand the margins of these different revenue segments a little bit more. So European consumer was growing presumed that's a decent margin business, same for AMAP, consumer fixed line because your cable assets a good margin. Enterprise I suppose some margin there. And then if you look at the negative drag, you got regulation, you get good margin on inbound, roaming but less on outbound. Handset financing I think you essentially [indiscernible] margins negative in this segment because of [indiscernible] so is it strategic because this could actually boost your EBITDA and then carrier presumably is low margin business. So ultimately kind of get to the implied EBITDA growth coming out to this sort of revenue mix. You got about 3% growth from the green boxes. The gray is sort of very low margin. I sort of rule thumb take 3% times by two to get to EBITDA growth from operational gearing and then add on savings. Well I'm getting a sort of mid-to-high single-digit EBITDA growth rate. As before obviously impact of Iliad and so what I'm getting wrong when I make that sort of calculation, please?

Vittorio Colao

Management

And I love your way of saying I don't want to drag you into next year guidance and then try to backward engineer me into a question that gives you that. Let me say, I think your analysis is not wrong and that's why we wanted to say that you're confident about our delivery for this year not for next year. You also confirmed more or less the what we said, was we said so far in the year that we see a modest revenue growth but a more sustained mid single-digit EBITDA growth. Of your comments again I don't want to go too much in detail. If one wants to be really picky you would say probably the wholesale MVNO part of the gray is real profit that you didn't mention because of course that money that comes in and goes to the bottom line, but everything else you've said directionally right, I would say.

Nick Read

Management

Justin I'm just sitting here and little bit confused while you're saying growing at 10% is somehow we're not pacy [ph] enough for you.

Justin Funnell

Analyst

No, I think the basic issue with your share price is that, people love the 10% but don't really think it's sustainable. Whereas your slide there on Slide 6, it's the maths of the margin, [indiscernible] different columns is right. Then there I say perhaps it is, at least before we think about impacts of Iliad initially.

Vittorio Colao

Management

We're not going to give guidance for next year. I think we basically said that you're apart from this comment on wholesale, your comments are directionally right, but we're not going to change guidance or to even talk about guidance. For this year, we're confident we can deliver.

Justin Funnell

Analyst

Okay, thanks a lot.

Vittorio Colao

Management

And we need to leave something for May apart from digital [indiscernible].

Operator

Operator

Okay, as that was the final question for today. [Indiscernible] back to you for any closing comments.

Vittorio Colao

Management

I mean I think we covered really lot of ground I would say good delivery, growth give and take more or less in line with previous quarter and I would say happy about the convergent momentum especially on fixed line but also on mobile once you look into the details, we're continuing to deliver and we're confident that we can confirm the guidance and then have a good discussion in May about next year. Thank you very much for all of your questions and I look forward to seeing you in the coming weeks.

Operator

Operator

This now concludes the call. Thank you all very much for attending and you can now disconnect.