David Naemura
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Mark. Adjusted net earnings for the third quarter were $137 million, an increase of 2% from $134 million in the prior year period. This translated to adjusted net earnings per share of $0.80. The increase in earnings was primarily driven by continued growth in our non-EMV businesses and strong price, which offset the impact of material inflation, resulting in strong fall-through and approximately 70 basis points of core adjusted operating margin expansion in the quarter. Core revenue growth in the third quarter was approximately 1% amidst strong demand and against the prior year Q3, which benefited from a sharp recovery from the pandemic lows as well as regulatory-driven demand in North America and in the high-growth markets. The tale of two halves as we referred to it. Sequentially, revenue grew mid-single digits, directionally consistent with our historical seasonality. In the third quarter, core revenue growth was driven by our non-EMV businesses, which grew approximately 10% and was mostly offset by the anticipated roll-off of EMV and the regulatory driver in Mexico, which benefited the second half of last year. Adjusted operating profit for the third quarter was $188 million, a growth of 4% compared to the prior year period, primarily driven by revenue growth and solid operational execution as we managed through persistent inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions across our operating companies. As Mark stated, through broad pricing actions and the team's continued focus on executing on our profitable growth initiatives, we drove approximately 90 basis points of adjusted gross margin expansion and 70 basis points of adjusted core operating margin expansion, more than offsetting a headwind of approximately $10 million from raw material inflation and logistics. In the third quarter, we generated adjusted free cash flow of $119 million, a conversion of 87%, reflecting some build of working capital during the quarter, which remains at very low levels. Importantly, year-to-date, our free cash flow conversion is more than 90% and approximately 100% after excluding the incremental federal tax payment paid in the second quarter of this year relating to our 2020 spend. Additionally, our net leverage stands at 2.9x adjusted EBITDA, up 1.2 turns from the prior quarter, reflecting the completion of the DRB acquisition, which was successfully closed in September. Looking at the performance of our 2 platforms. Mobility Technologies core revenue declined 1% as GVR declined slightly due to the roll-off of EMV in North America and the fiscal regulation in Mexico. Excluding the impact of EMV, GVR core revenue and bookings grew low teens and high single-digits, respectively, which highlights the continued demand momentum, especially in retail solutions, environmental solutions and further progress in high-growth markets. In the high-growth markets, revenue grew low single-digits in the third quarter as continued momentum in India and Middle East and Africa was partially offset by the compare against the prior year Mexico fiscal regulation. On a year-to-date basis, core growth in our high-growth markets is up high teens. Core revenue growth in our Diagnostics and Repair Technologies platform was 7%, driven by high single-digit demand at Matco and compares with the third quarter of 2020 which saw a strong recovery from the pandemic impacts. Matco continues to experience a strong demand environment and a growing distribution base, reflecting our fifth consecutive quarter of strong net franchisee additions following the pause during the height of the pandemic. Diagnostics and Repair Technologies backlog continues to remain elevated as we work through supply chain challenges in this robust demand environment. Looking at total company sales regionally. As I mentioned, high-growth markets revenue grew low single-digits as a result of the tough Mexico compare, and we continue to make progress in strategically important markets, including India, the Middle East and Africa and Latin America. Growth in the developed markets in total was up slightly in the third quarter as growth in Western Europe and in the non-EMV portions of our North America business was offset by the impact of EMV on our GVR North America business. We also continued to make progress on our profit improvement actions that will better position the company for the remainder of 2021 and beyond. We recognized a restructuring charge of approximately $3 million in the third quarter. We now anticipate that we will recognize a charge of around $15 million in 2021, a bit lower than we were previously planning as we continue to align the pace of actions relative to the strong demand environment. This means a remaining charge of approximately $5 million would be shifted from Q4 to the first quarter of next year, and we anticipate that we will still achieve our original savings objectives for 2022. Turning to the outlook assumptions. For the full year 2021, we are maintaining our core revenue guide of high single-digit growth and our core operating margin expansion target of greater than 125 basis points in 2021, reflecting continued execution on our profitable growth initiatives and cost management and partially offset by persistent inflationary pressures, supply chain and logistics constraints and mix. That said, we are raising our outlook for adjusted earnings per share to a range of $2.82 to $2.86, growth of approximately 14% to 16% year-over-year, reflecting continued momentum and execution in our core business, combined with about $0.04 to $0.05 contribution for the in-year impact of the acquisition of DRB. We anticipate our full year effective tax rate to be around 23%, reflecting some benefit from tax planning initiatives that were implemented in the third quarter. And on free cash flow conversion, we have seen working capital increase for 2 consecutive quarters while still being at historically very low levels. We believe this will put some pressure on our free cash flow conversion and see that being around 90% to 95% for the full year. This, of course, includes the additional federal tax payment that we had in Q2. And excluding this, our conversion would be around 100% level that we typically expect. Shifting to the fourth quarter. We expect a core revenue decline of mid-single digits as a result of the EMV compare dynamic, while non-EMV revenues are expected to still grow low single-digits despite a tough compare. Looking on a 2-year stack basis, given the uniqueness of the 2020 compare dynamic, non-EMV growth is expected to be up high single-digits. Adjusted core operating margin is expected to contract 50 to 75 basis points. This primarily reflects the difficult comps related to the strength of Matco, EMV and Mexico fiscal regulations in the prior year period, consistent with the tale of two halves dynamic that we communicated when entering the year. As Mark stated, this translates into adjusted earnings per share of $0.77 to $0.81 in . Overall, the third quarter demonstrated our ability to execute in a very dynamic environment. And as we round out the year, we are on pace with our planned actions to more than offset the earnings impact of EMV sunset and to direct resources to take advantage of other growth drivers in attractive end markets. With that, I will turn it back to Mark.