Mogens Bay
Analyst · Irrigation in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about what changed from when you did the guidance update a month ago to lower that expectation or what you missed in the third quarter in Utility and what changed in Irrigation for the fourth quarter
Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I trust you've all read the press release. Most of our businesses had a good or decent quarter. The exception being our Utilities Structures business which had a very difficult third quarter. Few large projects, continued severe pricing pressure on small projects and us now taking orders we found unattractive resulted in unfavorable absorption of fixed cost both in the plants and administrative areas. And for the first time in a long time our operating income as a percentage of sales dipped below 10% in this segment. We do not expect that level of performance to repeat in the fourth quarter. We expect significantly higher revenues and operating income as a percentage of sales reverting to double-digit territory. Backlog and order flow have been improving since the beginning of the third quarter. We expect the fourth-quarter revenue in this segment to be the highest quarterly revenue this year. The miss in the Utility Support Structure segment performance compared to our expectations just a month or 2 ago was the equivalent of about $0.25 a share. Our crystal ball on the North American utility market has certainly been cloudy at best. Recognizing that shorter lead times and a larger mix of small projects make it more difficult to forecast, we should nevertheless have done a much better job of predicting the third-quarter difficulties in this market. Over the last 10 years, we have focused on managing rapid growth in our Utility segment adding capacity to support a business that grew from about $100 million to about $900 million. We added capacity and benefited from tight capacity in the industry and therefore high levels of profitability, which last year reached 18% operating income as a percentage of sales. It is a different world today. We expect the market volume opportunities to continue strong going forward but the competitive landscape has changed significantly as capacity has caught up with demand and lead times have shortened. I do not think we will see close to 20% operating income over the next few years. I expect the new normal will be operating income as a percentage of sales in the range of 10% to 15%. At that rate, it will deliver a very good return on invested capital and add value for our shareholders. Our focus going forward will be on operational excellence as opposed to capacity additions, not unlike what we focused on in our Engineered Infrastructure Products businesses over the last few years. The Irrigation business had a good quarter delivering more than 15% operating income. Most benefits from storm damage in North America were reflected in our second-quarter results, although July shipments also benefited significantly from the replacement of storm damaged machines. For the third quarter, our revenues in North America were down slightly, but mostly offset by continued growth in our international Irrigation businesses. During the quarter, we acquired a majority interest in AgSense, a market-leading provider of remote monitoring and control technology, further expanding our technology offerings to the Irrigation industry. Turning to the fourth quarter, our North American Irrigation customers are still busy harvesting. There's no urgency for them to place orders for the next irrigation season at this time because of the shorter lead times compared to last year. Substantially lower commodity prices compared to last year will affect net farm income which is the closest correlation to short-term business conditions. We expect fourth-quarter results to be substantially weaker than last year's fourth quarter driven by lower commodity prices, resulting in lower revenues and the ensuing deleverage of fixed cost. The outlook for the upcoming selling season will become clear as we exit 2014, and we will give you an update in our February call. North American farmers balance sheets remain strong and the mood among our dealers is not negative. However, there is no escaping the fact that net farm income is the major driver of short-term revenue. The Irrigation business is a cyclical business. Through history, every peak of the cycle exceeded the previous one and every bottom of the cycle was higher than the previous one. I see no reason for that to change as the long-term opportunities in this business are maybe the strongest of any of our businesses. Using freshwater ever more efficiently for food production will become more and more urgent and there's no technology more efficient for large scale agriculture than the center pivot. Our Engineered Infrastructure Products segment had another quarter of improved performance with operating income as a percentage of sales of 11.4%. We are benefiting from continued focus on productivity and costs and the addition of the Valmont SM acquisition earlier this year. We continue to find acquisition opportunities for this segment, and after the close of the quarter we welcome Shakespeare, the premier US manufacturer of composite poles to the Valmont family. This business has revenue of about $55 million and profitability characteristics in line with the segment as a whole. The macro environment for this segment continues to be difficult in many parts of the world. A slowing economy in Europe, reduced growth rates in China, no long-term Highway Bill in North America and an Australian economy negatively affected by the slowdown in the important mining sector – segment in that country. The recent strengthening of the US dollar also dampens our international results when translated into US dollars. In that environment, we are pleased with the results in this segment. Our Coatings segment continues to deliver high quality of earnings with operating income as a percentage of sales of 20%. Profitability in our Australian galvanizers has suffered as a result of the slowdown of the mining economy there. And increased zinc prices put somewhat of a damper on the segment's profitability compared to last year's third quarter. During the quarter we refinanced our long-term debt. We decided to take advantage of the opportunity to place 30 and 40-year debt at very attractive interest rates of about 5%. We used some of the proceeds to repurchase some of our higher cost long-term debt which was due in 2020. So we now have $250 million of long-term debt due in 2020, $250 million due in 2044 and $250 million due in 2054. The after-tax cost associated with the repurchase was $0.95 a share. We also expanded our revolving credit agreement to $600 million. Our current guidance of $8.55 to $8.65 per share of net earnings for the year, excluding our refinancing and other one-time charges, is about $0.45 lower than our previous guidance. About half of this reduction is the result of the Utility segment's weak performance in the third quarter and the other half the expected earnings shortfall in our Irrigation segment in the fourth quarter compared to earlier expectations. Turning to other financial measures, depreciation and amortization for the quarter was $21.1 million, capital expenditures was $16.4 million. For 2014, we expect depreciation and amortization of about $85 million and capital spending of approximately $80 million. We have repurchased over 2.4 million Valmont shares since we announced our repurchase program. We have about $140 million remaining under the original program. This quarter the change in the quoted market value of the Delta EMD shares held on the Johannesburg exchange resulted in a $1.4 million non-cash loss reported as other expense. And we will now take your questions.