Donald M. James
Analyst · Stevens
Thanks, Danny. If you'll turn now to Slide 7, you'll see that we have continued to focus on strengthening our balance sheet through debt reduction. Net debt declined 6% over the last year, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved from 7.5 as of March 2011 to 6.4 this year all throughout a meaningful recovery yet in demand for aggregates. After a payment of a scheduled debt maturity of $140 million in June of this year, which we'll make from our existing liquidity, we will have no debt due until the fourth quarter of 2015. Strengthening our balance sheet remains a top priority for our management team. Turning now to Slide 8 for our end markets. Housing starts measured on the seasonally adjusted annual rate are now at more than 1 million, indicating the beginnings of a broad-based recovery in residential construction. In fact, most well-conserved markets realized double-digit growth in housing starts for the trailing 12 months. More importantly, we are seeing significant growth in several key states, including Florida, Texas, California, Georgia and Arizona. Growth in these key well-conserved states is important because not only will we realize the attractive incremental margins from higher aggregates volume, but our non-aggregates businesses will benefit as well. This growth in residential construction activity and its traditional follow-on impact to private nonresidential construction underpins our expectations for volumes and earnings improvements in 2013. Our April concrete shipments are indicative of this expanding recovery in private construction. For the past month, our concrete shipments were up over 20% compared to April of 2012, led by Florida, which was up over 30%. Year-to-date concrete shipments are slightly ahead of our year-to-date plan. Moving on to Slide 9. We are also continuing to be encouraged by leading indicators of future construction activity for private nonresidential buildings. One leading indicator, the Architectural Billing Index, or ABI, has been showing signs of steadily increased activity. The ABI can be an important leading indicator of construction for private nonresidential buildings. As you'll see on this slide, for 8 consecutive months, the ABI has been above 50, a level that indicates an increase in billing activity. This is a promising sign as we move further into 2012. Turning now to Slide 10. Private construction contract awards continue to recover in our markets, which includes contract awards for nonresidential buildings shown here. As shown in this chart, U.S. private nonresidential contract awards for the trailing 12 months ending March 31, 2013, are up 16% from the prior year period. This growth should support increased aggregate demand and private construction well into the future. Moving now to highway construction activity on Slide 11. You can see the year-over-year change in contract awards for new construction and construction put in place. As you'll see from this chart, the passage of the federal highway bill, or MAP-21, in July of 2012, is finally providing stability and predictability to highway funding. New highway projects, as measured by trailing 12 month contract awards, were up 1% versus last year's first quarter, marking the first year-over-year increase in contract awards for highways since January of 2011. The large increase in TIFIA funding contained in the new highway bill should also positively impact future demand. Contract awards for TIFIA projects are projected to add $30 billion to $50 billion to highway and infrastructure construction, substantially exceeding the contract awards for highways from the 2009 stimulus bill shown on the graph here from 2009 through 2010. Additionally, state and local governments appear to be moving forward with funding initiatives over and above the federal programs. Key states, such as Virginia, Texas and Maryland, are pursuing new funding initiatives that should increase future transportation investments substantially. In Virginia, a 5-year funding package approved by the general assembly can generate $3.4 billion for highways over the next 5 years, an increase of about $780 million per year. In Texas, the Department of Transportation has remained committed to bidding approximately $8.8 billion in transportation projects in FY '13 compared to about $4.8 billion last year. In Maryland, new revenue measures have been enacted that could raise $4.4 billion over 6 years, an increase of about $100 million to $200 million per year over that period. And finally, Richland County, South Carolina, home of the state capital in Columbia and the University of South Carolina where we have a substantial presence, is an example of a local government addressing their infrastructure needs beyond the state and federal program. In that County, a 1% sales tax increase was approved that will yield $35 million to $50 million per year the next 20 years. That tax goes into effect next month, or this month, actually. Turning now to Slide 12. Our outlook for another year of operating earnings improvements remains on track and it's supported by improved pricing, cost management and continued growth in private construction activity, which should drive volume growth. Aggregates demand from private construction is expected to grow overall, led by the residential sector. Residential construction is expected to increase approximately 20%, while demand from private nonresidential buildings is expected to increase about 8% compared to 2012. Our current expectation is for aggregates demand in the public construction, including highways and other infrastructure to approximate 2012 levels. However, our outlook for this end market has improved modestly given the recent upturn in trailing 12-month highway contract awards. The projects that could materially impact our 2013 aggregates volumes include a disproportionately greater number of large discrete highway and industrial projects. The timing of these projects remains challenging to predict. Our year-to-date aggregate shipments through April are slightly ahead of our year-to-date plan, and our full year shipments in 2013 are expected to increase 1% to 5%, with most of the expected year-over-year growth to occur in the second half of the year. In keeping with our successful efforts to offset the earnings effect of lower volumes in recent quarters, we will continue our focus on reducing controllable cost and achieving improved pricing. The geographic breadth of pricing gains we achieved in 2012 and so far this year enforces our expectation for continued price growth in 2013. We expect full year adjusted -- freight adjusted price growth of approximately 4% for full year 2013. Additionally, we expect earnings in each of our non-aggregates segments to improve compared to last year. Asphalt material margins increased throughout 2012, and we expect these material margins to increase again in 2013 and contribute to earnings growth in this segment. Full year concrete volumes and material margins are expected to improve in 2013 as housing starts continue recovering in key states. As we've noted, concrete volumes in the first quarter increased 6% overall versus the prior year, due in part to increased private construction activity in Florida. We expect the increased private construction activity to continue to lead to improved unit profitability in the Concrete segment. Demand earnings should also improve in 2013 due mostly to lower production cost. As a result, collectively, full year earnings from these segments are expected to contribute significantly to our earnings growth in 2013. Our full year outlook for 2013 reflects our continued progress toward achieving our Profit Enhancement Plan goals. Through the first quarter of 2013, profit enhancement initiatives have generated approximately $55 million of run rate profitability improvements. And we remain on track to meet our target of $100 million in run rate improvements from the 2011 base year. Finally, we will continue to work on additional asset sales, transactions that allow us to strengthen our balance sheet and credit metrics, as well as to deploy capital into assets and markets with higher future returns, to increase our ability to improve earnings as construction activity rose. And with that, I'll now turn the meeting back over to our operator to begin Q&A.