Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Holger. In the fourth quarter, we continued to act nimbly, leaning into our variable cost structure to manage short-term headwinds. We also remain prudent and proactive with managing our capacity to support demand and fleet availability trends. This diligence is reflected in our financial results for the quarter and the full year. For the fourth quarter of 2025, total operating revenues were $882 million, a 5.6% increase versus the comparable prior year quarter. This increase was driven by a substantial TRASM recovery in the back half of the year, as Holger explained, pointing to continued diversification of our revenues and early strength of segmentation efforts. Our top line also benefited from a strengthened peso, which appreciated 8.7% versus the U.S. dollar despite providing an incremental cost headwind. We continue to diminish the impact of FX volatility on our business through increased cross-border flying and U.S. dollar-denominated sales. On the cost side, CASM was $0.0829, an increase of 3.2% despite average economic fuel costs rising 5.5% to $2.65 per gallon. CASM ex fuel was $5.76, aligned with our guidance and up just 1.4% year-over-year. For the fourth quarter and full year, we achieved CASM ex fuel results in line with our planning despite flying materially fewer than originally planned ASMs in both periods. Looking down our P&L, the impact from our grounded fleet and engine maintenance and our actions to manage the related interim capacity deficit is reflected in several lines. Our depreciation and amortization, right of use and maintenance items continued to reflect cost of our total fleet, including the grounded aircraft. Additionally, as we approach elevated aircraft lease returns scheduled for 2026, our aircraft and engine variable lease expense line continued to reflect redelivery accruals, including reserves for aircraft maintenance on returns. Meanwhile, in the other operating income line, we booked sale and leaseback gains of $10.4 million related to the Airbus deliveries of 5 new aircraft. This line also includes our aircraft grounding compensation from Pratt & Whitney. For the fourth quarter, we generated EBITDAR of $328 million with a margin of 37.2%, aligned with the guidance provided for the quarter. EBIT was $100 million for a margin of 11.3%. Finally, we generated a net profit of $4 million, translating into an earnings per ADS of $0.04. Moving briefly to our P&L for the full year 2025 compared to full year 2024. Total operating revenues were $3 billion, a 3% decrease. CASM was $0.0804, a 0.1% increase with an average economic fuel cost of $2.59 per gallon, 6% lower. CASM ex fuel was $0558, 3.5% higher than last year. EBITDAR totaled $988 million, a 13% decrease with an EBITDAR margin of 32.5%. EBIT was $135 million, representing an EBIT margin of 4.4%. Over the next several years, we expect to meaningfully reduce the spread between EBITDAR and EBIT margins as we reverse the impact of capacity reductions related to engine-related AOGs. Prior to these issues and the resulting groundings, the spread between EBITDAR and EBIT margin hovered between 18% and 19% of revenues, but reached 28% in 2025. In 2026, we expect this EBITDAR to EBIT spread to tighten to 24% and to return to historical levels in 2028. Net loss was $104 million or a loss of $0.91 per ADS. Turning now to cash flow and balance sheet data. For the fourth quarter, cash flow generated by operating activities was $252 million. The cash outflows provided by and used in investing and financing activities were $2 million and $280 million, respectively. CapEx, excluding fleet predelivery payments, was $56 million for the fourth quarter and $251 million for the full year of 2025, in line with guidance. Volaris ended the quarter with a total liquidity position of $774 million, representing 25.5% of the last 12 months' total operating revenues. We continue to target liquidity of at least 20% of the last 12 months' revenues as part of a disciplined and conservative approach to cash management. At fourth quarter end, our net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio stood at 3.1x, unchanged from the third quarter. We expect deleveraging in the second half of the year, supported by improving earnings and fleet productivity as AOG levels decline, finishing 2026 with a ratio of approximately 2.6x. We continue to have no material near-term debt maturities and have already financed all predelivery payments for the aircraft scheduled for delivery through mid-2028. We remain focused on our core financial priorities of cost control, profitability and conservative cash management to preserve the strength and value of our business. Now turning to our fleet plan and engine availability. As of December 31, our fleet consisted of 155 aircraft with an average age of 6.6 years with 66% of the fleet being fuel-efficient new models. During the fourth quarter, we averaged 36 aircraft on ground due to engine-related issues. As Enrique discussed, we are at an inflection point in aircraft on ground, which peaked at 41 aircraft in January. We expect a steady reduction from here on with more meaningful improvement in the second half and towards year-end. We anticipate closing 2026 with approximately 25 AOGs. This trajectory implies a full-year average of approximately 33 AOGs, representing 3 additional aircraft returning to service versus 2025. The reduction in AOGs is supported by concrete manufacturer actions, including durability upgrades to the hot section of the engine, expanded MRO throughput across the global network and the rollout of enhancements and certifications. Together, these initiatives are extending time on wing and reducing shop turnaround times such that the number of engines being induced into MROs and returning to service are expected to be consistently larger than those being removed. As we gradually narrow the gap between our total and productive fleet while remaining disciplined in aligning capacity growth with demand, we expect to unlock meaningful financial benefits, particularly from the second half of the year onward. As grounded aircraft return to service, we will be able to generate ASM growth and earnings from essentially the same asset base. Our fleet in absolute numbers of aircraft will somewhat decline in the next couple of years, but the available of productive fleet will increase and close the gap between our total and available productive aircraft, providing adequate ASM growth to meet our guidance without the need for incremental fleet-related debt for the remainder of the decade. This will improve the EBITDAR to EBIT conversion and translate directly into a stronger free cash flow and return on invested capital. We have aligned our fleet plan to prioritize disciplined growth in productive capacity rather than total fleet size. Looking ahead, our base case assumes a roughly stable total fleet until 2030 with growth driven by the increasing share of productive aircraft. To preserve flexibility, we continue to actively manage the multiple levers we have, including managing lease approaching expiration and adjusting our order book. Given these moving parts, rather than viewing them in isolation, we recommend focusing on our guided ASM growth, which already incorporates aircraft deliveries, engine returns and aircraft redeliveries. Despite engine availability headwinds over the past 30 months, Volaris has consistently demonstrated a strong operational resilience. As fleet productivity improves, we are excited about the next phase of our growth as we evolve our network and products, maintain operational focus and continue strengthening our already world-class cost structure and margin profile in the years ahead. Turning now to guidance. For full year 2026, we are expecting ASM growth of around 7% year-over-year, EBITDAR margin of around 33% and CapEx, net of finance fleet predelivery payments, of approximately $350 million. Double clicking on this CapEx, we expect higher major maintenance activity due to the number of aircraft scheduled for delivery and a pull-forward of major maintenance activities to support accelerated engine inductions into Pratt shops. It is important to note, we expect this strategy to also support a more stable maintenance profile in the years ahead. Our full year 2026 outlook assumes an average foreign exchange rate to be approximately MXN 17.7 per U.S. dollar. We also assume an average U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price to be in the range of $2.1 to $2.2 per gallon. For the first quarter of 2026, we are targeting an ASM growth of approximately 3% year-over-year, TRASM of around $0.085, CASM ex fuel of approximately $0.06 and an EBITDAR margin of around 25%. As the AOG trend reverses, as I previously mentioned, we expect improved EBITDAR to EBIT conversion to support a stronger underlying profitability. We, therefore, expect first quarter EBIT margin to remain broadly flat, in line with our historical margin seasonality and implying a year-over-year improvement over the minus 1.5% margin reported in the first quarter of 2025. Our first quarter 2026 outlook assumes an average foreign exchange rate of around MXN 17.5 per U.S. dollar and an average U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price of approximately $2.2 per gallon, consistent with the realized prices for January and February and the forward curve for March. Separately, the recent appreciation of the Mexican peso has created near-term translation effect as approximately 40% of our cost base is peso-denominated. For reference, at the MXN 17.5 per dollar rate embedded in our guidance, FX translation alone will represent approximately a $0.004 impact on first quarter CASM ex. On top of the expected peso appreciation, the CASM ex fuel increase in our guidance is explained by nonrecurring factors. First, as I just mentioned, to achieve our target reduction in AOGs throughout the year, we accelerated engine inductions to Pratt & Whitney shops, which increases maintenance expenses in the near term. Second, we are projecting secure onetime expenses related to the proposed merger with Viva. Taken together, these nonrecurring items account for approximately $0.22 in unit costs in the quarter. These fleet actions strengthen our operational trajectory and support margin expansions, not only this year, but over the medium term. We have clear visibility on our fleet normalization and remain firmly in control of our growth and execution plans through 2026 and beyond. As the engine situation progressively moves behind us, we believe Volaris is entering a period where improved productivity, disciplined growth and structural cost advantages position the company to generate meaningful long-term shareholder value. Now I will turn the call back over to Enrique for closing remarks.