Enrique Beltranena
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open
Thank you very much, Maria Elena. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being with us today. Let me start with two important pieces of information. The first one is we achieved a 17% improvement in the third quarter on TRASM versus first quarter 2018. This number combined with a 10% CASM ex-fuel reduction are both figures that not only reflect our commitment to achieving better results, but also indicate that Volaris is now on a more favorable path. I would like to mention some economic factors that drove our performance for this quarter and will certainly influence the coming months. Remittances of $22 billion from January to August 2018, that's historical levels. Just in August, remittances reached $2.9 billion. This data shows the strength of Volaris' core market, the visiting friends and relatives. Year-over-year, in the first quarter of 2018, remittances grew up by 4%; in the second quarter, they grew by 18%; and in July and August, they grew by almost 10%, now representing 2.6% of the GDP. Traffic volume in the domestic market continues to rise in line with an emerging market economy, which is the way you should look at Volaris, in which the middle-class evolves and requires more seats and air travel options, which is not the case of the business market in Mexico. With wages at an all-time high, we believe that Mexicans living in the U.S. are kind of postponing their vacation and travel plans, preferring to remain working at this time rather than traveling. We also believe they are sending remittances and purchasing tickets through their relatives to fly within Mexico. They're also taking advantage of the current peso exchange rate benefits. This trend explains part of Volaris' traffic behavior where it is our belief that domestic demand of visiting friends and relatives traffic is growing at a higher pace, especially in the domestic market. An ideal fit for the ultra-low-cost model in this economy and population. I repeat this is different to the business market errands. We consider that a suitable index to measure consumption of the middle class was, I mean, the Mexican consumer confidence index, which is at one of its highest levels. During the third quarter, the improvement was 17% year-over-year. Given this economic background, we achieved a positive TRASM trend. The TRASM for the third quarter is almost at the level of last year's third quarter, up 17% versus the first quarter, and up 10% versus the second quarter. If I compare those numbers versus last year, the difference between the third quarter and the first quarter is only 10%. So that indicates you that we are far better and improving our TRASM line. Holger will elaborate on the details of why the total unit revenue has improved, resulting in total revenue per available seat mile of MXN1.35. We are cautious and optimistic on this positive trend to continue during the fourth quarter. I'd like to give you a few examples of actions we took during the last quarter that we believe differentiate us from our competitors. Load factor in the domestic market is showing an improvement. Therefore, we added capacity of 15.8% ASMs mainly in our core markets of Guadalajara, Tijuana and Cancun, which we also plan to defend and strengthen in the future because it is our core market and this is where this company can grow. Much of the capacity additions have been healthy this year. Healthy additional capacity is defined by us as capacity resulting from better management of our aircraft utilization and by increasing, first, our fleet density or operating a more efficient fleet. During the third quarter, we grew ASMs by 13.4% in the network year-over-year. From that growth, almost half of it came from gauging to more seats for departure and increased utilization with a much more efficient fleet. Going forward, Volaris will continue to be cautious about managing capacity. However, we will continue to add healthy capacity. As a result, we project Volaris' fourth quarter growth between 9% and 12% year-over-year capacity, which is coming for better utilization of the fleet, which is more efficient. Volaris customer service metrics, the net promoter score, hit its best level for the year. We had an on-time performance of 82% arrival plus 15 during the high season. While it takes time for good custom service metrics and on-time performance to trickle down into customer choice and higher unit revenue, at Volaris, we are already seeing some benefits to our top line. As we just said, running a reliable operation with good, low-cost customer service does not conflict with a ultra-low-cost carrier model. Customer service is fundamental to our long-term success. But now let me turn to talk about the efforts we made on unit costs, excluding fuel. We achieved a record unit cost of $4.3 excluding fuel. Let me remind you that these numbers are a blended mix of costs of domestic and international markets, whereas international markets are more expensive to operate than the domestic markets. As you can expect, our domestic unit cost, as I said, is lower than international one, which is another reason why we are growing domestically more than international. Our A321 fleet, which is our best asset in terms of unit cost is operating in the domestic market. Year-to-date, 2018 versus the same period of 2017, we practically offset the jet fuel price. We are the only ones that did that in the Mexican market, increased through many cost reductions initiatives on a total CASM basis. CASM ex-fuel for the third quarter in pesos declined by 7.9% year-over-year, that is 13.5% in U.S. cents, 13.5% in U.S. cents. For the full year, we believe we'll be able to execute the 7% to 9% reduction in our U.S. dollar unit cost ex fuel. We keep on working on the strategy and we keep on reducing costs. There's more to come. During the quarter, the Company observed improvements in Airbus Neo engine and airplane reliability. All performance metrics have improved. We've been working with Airbus on a revised delivery schedule for 2018 and beyond given the delays in production, and Holger will elaborate much more on this, especially during 2018. This is an addition to our commitment from our engine manufacturer for an improved service agreement. Such schedule considers the recalibration of the pre-delivery payment under which the Company will not need to increase its current financing facility. Volaris ended the third quarter with 73 fuel efficient aircrafts. Before I pass it to Holger, it is important to acknowledge we delivered results for the quarter through better revenue momentum and bending of the cost curve. Looking into 2019, we look forward to continuing this trend as we drive the business back on to a path of potential margin expansion. Holger, can you further elaborate on the revenue side?