VLOWY (VLOWY) Q2 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good day, and welcome to Vallourec's 2026 First Half Results Presentation hosted by Philippe Guillemot, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Nathalie Delbreuve, Chief Financial Officer. [Operator Instructions] And now I'd like to hand the call over to Daniel Thomson, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Grace. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for Vallourec's Second Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. I'm Daniel Thomson, Director of Investor Relations at Vallourec. I'm joined today by Vallourec's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Philippe Guillemot; and Vallourec's Chief Financial Officer, Nathalie Delbreuve. Before we begin our presentation, I would like to note that this conference call will be recorded. A replay will be available following the call. You can find the audio webcast on our Investor Relations website. The presentation slides referred to during this call are also available for download here. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements. Future results may differ materially from statements or projections made on today's call. The forward-looking statements and risk factors that could affect those statements are referenced on Slide 2 of today's presentation. These are also included in our universal registration document filed with the French Financial Markets Regulator, the AMF. This presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. I'll now turn the call over to Philippe Guillemot.

Thank you, Dan. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us to discuss Vallourec's second quarter 2026 results. You can see today's agenda on Slide 3. Now let's turn to Slide 5 to discuss our results and outlook. In the second quarter, we delivered a strong performance once again with group EBITDA of USD 190 million, in line with the midpoint of our guidance and at a solid 21.4% margin. Despite sequentially lower volumes in our international business, Tubes profitability remained highly robust at USD 722 per ton, similar to the level in Q1. This highlights the strength and resilience of our business model amidst a complex operating environment in the Middle East. Our cash conversion continued to improve year-on-year with more than 60% of EBITDA converted to cash this quarter. We ended the period with a net cash balance of USD 183 million, the highest level since 2009. Turning to the outlook. We expect Tubes volumes to increase and EBITDA per ton to decrease sequentially in the third quarter, reflecting a less favorable mix and timing of additional costs related to Middle East shipments to be reimbursed largely in the coming quarters. In Mine & Forest, production sold is expected to be around 1.4 million tonnes. As a result, we expect Q3 EBITDA to range between USD 170 million and USD 210 million with a wider range reflecting the increased uncertainty related to the renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Turning to our markets. In the U.S., higher activity levels and constrained imports due to the existing tariffs and ongoing trade investigations are supporting solid utilization of our assets. Market pricing continues to improve, reflecting favorable OCTG fundamentals with inventory levels across the board now below the 5-year average. In international markets, our primary customers in the Middle East are leveraging local supply chains such as ours to accelerate their activity. At the same time, select customers who are more directly affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to defer deliveries as they await greater operational visibility. Global tendering activity remains high, and we see customers moving ahead with project development, notably in offshore markets. We announced several important high-value contract awards in this domain over the quarter, including the largest line pipe contract in Vallourec history for ExxonMobil Guyana's Deepwater, Hammerhead, and Longtail projects. These and other recent bookings underpin higher invoicing from late 2026 with more contract announcements to come in the second semester this year. Turning to capital allocation. With the announcement of EUR 2.05 per share interim extraordinary dividend to be paid in August and the completion of EUR 110 million in share repurchases in H1 2026, we are cementing our position as one of the most shareholder-friendly companies both in our peer group and the wider market. After quarter end, we were pleased to announce a final agreement with our partners for the exit of our 20% stake in HKM. In New Energies, our Deep Dive presentation hosted in June highlighted Vallourec's advantaged position as a key enabler in the rapidly growing geothermal market where demand for premium tubular solutions continues to increase. We believe this market could reach a scale comparable to the seamless OCTG market of South America or Africa by 2030, while in the [ meantime ] geothermal customer demand over the next 6 months is expected to exceed the prior 12 months total. Finally, to support our customers' growing pipeline of offshore deep and ultra-deepwater development, Vallourec is investing in advanced coating and thermal insulation technology that are increasingly critical to flow assurance and project economics. I will discuss our advanced coating solutions offering later in the presentation. Let's move to the market environment on Slide 7. In international markets, drilling activity was stable outside the Middle East in the second quarter with an uptick in June. In the Middle East, offshore activity rebounded from the low point in March back to pre-war levels, while onshore activity remained lower, primarily driven by countries with limited export routes outside the Strait of Hormuz. Market pricing continued to increase during the same quarter, compensating for increased costs associated with the disruption in the Middle East. Turning to Slide 8 for a closer look at the Middle East. You can see on the chart on the left that drilling activity in Saudi Arabia continues to accelerate, while activity in the UAE mostly recovered to pre-war levels by June. As a reminder, these 2 countries account for around 2/3 of drilling activity and Vallourec volumes in the region. Meanwhile, activity in other Middle East countries remains almost 30% or 60 rigs below February's level with Iraq most impacted today. While there is considerable uncertainty in the near term around the timing of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, we continue to expect a region-wide rebound in drilling activity as countries seek to maximize their domestic production capacity. We already see strong appetite from both NOCs and IOCs to collaborate to achieve higher production levels in the coming years with a few projects to bypass the Strait of Hormuz already underway. This activity rebound, combined with much needed restocking of tubulars will drive higher OCTG demand over the coming quarter. Turning to Slide 9. We can see the latest data from Rystad, pointing to a significant increase in major project approvals or final investment decisions in the remainder of 2026 to 2028 in both onshore and offshore markets, some of which have already been approved since the publishing of this report. As energy security and diversity of supply becomes a top priority amongst nations, we are seeing our customers progressing the development of their project portfolios with increased urgency. These projects are expected to drive a multiyear increase in global upstream CapEx through 2030 with a growing share of offshore and unconventional projects in the oil and gas supply stack, both of which exhibit higher decline rates than conventional onshore developments. We believe this trend plays to our strength, increasing both OCTG demand and the need for premium tubular solutions in deeper, higher pressure and unconventional developments. Let's turn to Slide 10 to discuss how Vallourec is increasingly well positioned to capture this growth in offshore and deepwater in the coming years. To address the growing pipeline of offshore deepwater projects in our customers' portfolio, Vallourec acquired and successfully integrated Thermotite do Brasil last year. Since then, we have seen many commercial successes driving high utilization of this line pipe coating asset. In May this year, we announced breakthrough contracts from ExxonMobil Guyana under our long-term agreement signed in 2021. Under this contract, Vallourec will deliver more than 40,000 tonnes of line pipe, of which 22,000 tonnes will be insulated with Exxon's Proxxima resin systems with Goldilocks subsea insulation technology. This represents Vallourec's largest ever line pipe contract. Vallourec has become the first licensee of these technologies by ExxonMobil, and we are investing in an upgrade of our line pipe coating assets in Serra, Brazil. Other commercial successes enabled by our advanced coating expertise and integrated offering include a major contract for Azule Energy's PAJ development offshore Angola, involving one of the thickest thermal insulation systems ever implemented in the subsea industry. Further, we announced last week a large contract by Allseas for the Atapu-2 project offshore in Brazil. In the chart on the right, you can see that after a temporary lower period over 2024 to 2026, the line pipe market is expected to accelerate from 2027 again. Importantly, the percentage of this market requiring thermal insulation coating is also seen increasing with up to 45% of offshore projects worldwide expected to incorporate thermal insulation coating. As you can see from the chart, our manufacturing base in Brazil is ideally positioned to service the largest offshore market requiring this technology. Moving to the North America market on Slide 11. On the demand front, drilling activity has begun to respond to higher prices with the U.S. rig increasing by around 7% versus pre-war levels. The increase in activity combined with restrained import volumes, which I will cover on the next slide, is driving a reduction in OCTG inventories across the board, which are declining below the 5-year average. As a result, OCTG pricing continues to increase, reflecting favorable supply-demand dynamics, which we expect to continue based on the strength of our recent bookings. Turning to imports on Slide 12. On the left chart, you can see that OCTG imports remain well below the 2025 level despite higher prices with seamless imports accounting for less than 10% of total shipments in the U.S. We expect the investigation into alleged unfair trade practices from Austria, the largest single source of seamless imports as well as Taiwan and UAE to continue driving greater market share for local producers such as Vallourec. We will see the benefit of higher prices in our P&L from the third quarter and more so in the fourth quarter. Overall, we see an increasingly positive oil and gas market ahead in the U.S. complemented by rapidly growing demand from geothermal customers. I will now hand the call over to Nathalie to comment on our financial results.

Thank you, Philippe. I will now walk you through our Q2 2026 results. In the second quarter, activity in the United States remained strong, while the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected delivery timing in certain Middle Eastern markets. This led to volumes declining sequentially. But despite these temporary headwinds, we continued to deliver resilient margins, strong cash generation and further balance sheet strengthening. Let's look now at the figures. I will start with Slide 14. Group EBITDA remained strong at 21.4% in Q2 2026 despite the lower sequential volumes. This highlights both the resilience of our business model and our ability to adapt our cost base to changing market conditions. Net working capital stood at 85 days in Q2, broadly stable compared to Q1. Total cash generation before shareholder return remained robust at $118 million during the quarter. At the end of June, our net cash is positive at $183 million after a share buyback cash out of $14 million in Q2 and $121 million in the complete first semester. As a reminder, after the end of the quarter in July, we received EUR 307 million of proceeds as a result of the exercise of warrants, which will be reflected in our Q3 cash flow, along with the payment of an interim extraordinary dividend of EUR 2.05. Turning to Slide 15. Group revenues amounted to $886 million in Q2 2026. The sequential decrease versus Q1 primarily reflects lower shipments to the Middle East as deliveries were affected by the logistic constraints linked to the Strait of Hormuz continued closure. Despite lower revenues, EBITDA remains robust at $190 million, in line with our midpoint guidance. The year-over-year decline in EBITDA is mostly explained by the absence of $16 million contribution from Serimax following its disposal in Q2 2025. Adjusted free cash flow totaled $125 million in the quarter, demonstrating continued strong cash conversion and disciplined capital allocation. As a result, we further strengthened our balance sheet, ending the quarter with a net cash position of $183 million to be compared to $67 million at the end of Q1, while returning [ $40 million ] to shareholders through share buybacks during the quarter. Turning to Slide 16. Tubes volumes sold amounted to 244,000 tonnes in Q2, declining sequentially in our international business. Average selling prices remained at strong levels, reaching $3,327 per tonne in the quarter compared to $2,978 per tonne in Q2 2025. This performance continued to be supported by a favorable product mix. Tubes revenue totaled $811 million in Q2 2026. From a geographical perspective, North America remains our largest market and accounted for 47% of revenues, stable year-over-year. The Middle East represented 22% of revenues, up from 18% in Q2 2025. On a sequential basis, however, Middle East revenues declined by 29%, reflecting the temporary shipment delay we already commented. Now moving to Tubes profitability on Slide 17. Tubes EBITDA amounted to $176 million in Q2 2026, 9% higher than in Q2 2025. EBITDA margin remained high at 22% and EBITDA per tonne reached $722, very close to the strong level already achieved in Q1. This strong performance shows the resilience of our business model with an effective cost management and a positive product and customer mix. Turning to Slide 18. Mine production sold amounted to approximately 1.2 million tonnes in Q2 2026 compared with 1.3 million tonnes in the previous quarter. The decline primarily reflects higher international freight rates, which affected the competitiveness of iron ore exports from Brazil for our customers and weighed on sales volume during the quarter. Segment revenues totaled $92 million. EBITDA amounted to $33 million, representing a margin of 36% compared to 40% in Q1. The decrease mainly reflects lower sales volumes and unfavorable foreign exchange effects and also some additional costs. As a reminder, the mine is currently in a transition period with Phase 2 expansion expected to come online during 2027. On Slide 19, in Q2, net income group share was $45 million, that is 5% of total revenue. From EBITDA to net income, we can see depreciation and amortization, very much in line with previous quarters and Q1 2026. Financial results as well at minus $15 million, very much in line with the expected group quarterly run rate that is between USD 17 million to USD 23 million. And the other pillar of the bridge includes, as usual, restructuring and some one-off impacts. Turning to Slide 20. Cash generation remained strong in the second quarter with total cash generation reaching $118 million. We continue to generate cash from working capital with a release of $39 million, reflecting disciplined inventory management and solid collections from customers. CapEx were $50 million in Q2 and $108 million for the first semester, fully in line with our investment range that is between $170 million to [ $270 million. ] And moving to Slide 21, you can see that our financial position remains very strong. At quarter end, we held a net cash position of $183 million and total liquidity exceeded $2 billion. I will now hand the call back to Philippe.

Thank you, Nathalie. Let's turn to Slide 23 to discuss our outlook. Starting with our Tubes business. In the third quarter, we expect volumes to increase and EBITDA per tonne to decrease sequentially, reflecting a less favorable mix and increased cost due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East to be reimbursed largely in coming quarters. For H2, we expect volumes and prices in North America to increase compared to H1 2026 reflecting positive OCTG supply-dynamics. International volumes are expected to increase in H2 2026 versus H1 2026 despite continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz which is affecting delivery timing in select countries. EBITDA per tonne in international Tubes is expected to decline in H2 2026 versus H1 2026, primarily due to mix effect and additional costs related to Middle East shipments. For Mine & Forest, we expect production sold to be around 1.4 million tonnes in the third quarter. We now expect full year production sold to be between 5 million to 5.5 million tonnes, reflecting slightly softer demand from China driven by higher freight costs. At the group level, we expect our third quarter EBITDA to range between USD 170 million and USD 210 million. Let's conclude on Slide 24. We are delivering best-in-class margins and driving improved cash conversion through operational excellence and cost management. Our customers in the U.S. are increasing activity in both oil and gas and geothermal with recent trade investigations driving strong domestic utilization and OCTG inventories on the ground declining. Strong forecast growth in upstream project approval, particularly in offshore markets are driving improvement in our international bookings, setting the stage for future profitable growth. Thank you again for your attention. Nathalie and I are now ready to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] I will now leave the floor to Guilherme Levy from Morgan Stanley.

I have 2, please. First, could you just remind us how much of additional costs you are having to incur now on the back of the Strait of Hormuz disruption? Some other players that have had to ship materials through the Strait over the past few months have pointed out to a learning curve on how to manage costs during this crisis. So I was wondering how that's playing out in the case of Vallourec. And then secondly, in terms of reimbursement, what's the mood at the moment in terms of conversations with clients? How long do you expect these conversations to take? And do we -- are we talking here about the full reimbursement or a partial one?

Okay. Thank you for your question. I will hand over to Nathalie to answer your 2 questions.

Thank you, Guilherme for the question. So in fact, if you remember, we had guided -- we had expected our EBITDA per tonne in Q2 to reduce versus Q1 and partially into the Strait of Hormuz additional cost. In fact, what we see now is that part of the extra costs have shifted to Q3. And we do not see any ease in the additional costs that I will comment. In fact, we have seen energy, freight and insurance costs being up since the conflict and it's still very much inflated. So in terms of learning curve, I think we are indeed succeeding to deliver our customers. We illustrated the routes that we are taking in our previous calls. But in terms of inflation of the cost, they are still here. And then as we said, yes, we are discussing customer by customer in order to pass through everything or part of this extra cost. There is still a lag between us incurring the cost and the recovery in this partial recovery on cost that we expect more in the coming quarters and partially as well in 2027.

I would add to Nathalie's answer. First, as we tell you, we expect our Q3 volume to increase even under the scenario that Strait of Hormuz remain closed, which means that we have found ways to get alternative routes to deliver to our customers. And second, as you can imagine, with what happened, inventory on the ground in Middle East are at a very low point. So customers are very eager to get pipes and the discussion on the extra costs are going very well.

We now have a question from Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Just a kind of follow-up on the Middle East. Just trying to understand the volumes impact and tell me if I'm wrong, but I think the, let's say, volumes impact in Q1 due to the Middle East was something like close to 20,000 tonnes. We have another decline sequentially in the volumes this quarter. Is it fair to assume that the volumes decline that we have seen in Q2 versus Q1 is all about the Middle East and the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, et cetera, just to understand a bit -- the volumes impact that you have seen in Q1 and Q2? And the second one relates to the U.S. So you clearly positively highlight the positive pricing dynamic in the U.S. with the $200 per tonne price effect July versus beginning of the year. What's the, if I can say, net effect of increasing cost inflation, et cetera, that is directly impacting your P&L, please?

On the volume, it takes longer, more time to deliver pipes. So as a consequence, delivery is obviously drifting forward, which obviously, as a consequence, lead to delay reporting invoicing, because invoicing is directly linked to delivery. So exactly, it's just a shift of delivery, which translate in shift of invoicing and as a consequence, shift of EBITDA recognition. So -- and that's why -- and given what's going on and the fact that we need to be very agile and route -- we are creating new routes that didn't exist before the war to deliver to our customers. All this, obviously, it's always hard to predict. Sometimes a week make a difference. If it's at the end of the quarter or the next quarter, it makes a difference on our numbers. That's why there is uncertainty. But overall, we have had no cancellation of orders, no cancellation of orders, just postponement of delivery, as I said earlier. In the U.S., yes, prices are, as you can see on the chart, increasing and obviously, more than covering for increase of cost which are not, by the way, material in the U.S., scrap price has not increased much and energy costs, you know how well they are, especially gas. And so far, I think we don't see any major impact on our cost.

We now have a question from Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.

My first question is just on, do you expect to generate any margin on the cost recovery of the additional costs you're seeing in the Middle East? And then in terms of the additional cost, do you mind being a little bit more granular on 2 things really. Firstly, do you mind going country by country in the Middle East kind of where you're seeing the greater issues, the greater costs? And then you highlighted energy, freight and instrument costs up, which of those are you most exposed to?

Do we expect to make margin charging back to customers more than we incurred? No, it's not the way we do business. At the heart of our success with our customers is trust. And we are here to do -- to be fair with our customers. And just covering for the cost will be already -- yes, is what we are looking for. And it varies from customers to customers. I will not give you any breakdown, but you can easily guess that increased cost to deliver to Aramco is less because there is a highly localized setup with Aramco as the opposite ADNOC, there is more extra cost because pipes are coming from outside UAE and require obviously more extra cost on the logistic. And same, by the way, for Iraq, if you take Iraq as an example. Okay. And the last question.

On the cost, just to be a bit more granular maybe in the nature of cost. So it's mainly transportation, but we also have additional storage costs because we do have intermediate storage due to the longer route when you need to offload and then truck longer. So these are the 2 main drivers. And for the countries, you had the comment from Philippe.

We now have a question from Jamie Franklin from Jefferies.

So firstly, just on volumes. Obviously, you're tracking quite a bit lower year-on-year. But you're guiding both higher volumes in the U.S. and internationally. And in the U.S., we do have a bit of a tailwind of activity. So just wondering if you see any scenario here where your 2026 volumes can sort of still reach similar level to 2025 or at least approaching that kind of 1.2 million tonne level? And then secondly, just wondering if you could help us to understand the mix effects that you speak to in your comments on the 2H international EBITDA per tonne. Is that more a 3Q impact than 4Q? Because I would have expected 4Q to benefit somewhat from the new Petrobras LTA.

Okay. Well, as far as the group volume are concerned, yes, we may expect similar volumes in '25, maybe, again, all this depends on how the -- we expect H2 volume higher than H1. It's true that H2 volume were low, but on the back of order bookings of H2 last year, which we knew were lower. All this due to the sequence of the bidding process of our customers. It's not linear over the year. What I can tell you is that tendering activity is fairly active these days for the reasons we explained earlier. There is even sometimes a sense of urgency to tender project because as we commented, most nations are looking to diversify their source of supply, and obviously look at project out of Middle East to compensate for the millions of barrel of oil, which are not transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. That's why as far as the years to come are concerned, we are rather confident in the fact that there will be an uptick in volume. Let's talk about offshore. In offshore, we already booked in 6 months what we expected to book in 12. And these are long lead each projects which take longer to turn into revenue, but they will turn into revenue in '27 and '28. So that's I think the part of the cycle we are in.

And for your question on the mix, if I can give you a bit more color. So the comment was, yes, more for Q3. We have -- you have seen in the past that our EBITDA pattern can vary from quarter-to-quarter due to customer and product mix and especially depending on how much services we do have in the product mix. And here in Q3, we do expect slightly less services. If you think of the Middle East, the inventory level now currently in the region is very low and services are linked to the inventory level. So we do have an effect here.

[Operator Instructions] We now have a question from Baptiste Lebacq from ODDO BHF.

Two questions from my side. The first one is regarding your, let's say, setup for deliveries in Saudi. Is it through Bab-el-Mandeb or through Oman? And the second question is related to the cash flow dynamic for Q3 due to the fact that there is still some, let's say, low deliveries in Middle East plus maybe acceleration in the U.S. Can we expect some tension on the working cap side?

Saudi, maybe you don't -- let me explain the setup in Saudi. Pipes are produced locally. So in fact, delays are coming from Oman can be transferred by route to Saudi. Saudi, AMTPJ, JESCO are making the pipe, and we heat treat them and we thread them. So there is no flow going through Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea to make these pipes and deliver them to Aramco. So that's why that's the region which is the least impacted, by the way, from a supply standpoint by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As far as working cap is concerned, as you know, and we have -- I think there is a slide in Nathalie's presentation showing how we have significantly improved our working cap expressed in days of sales, and we continue to be very, very disciplined. And obviously, the levels where we are is a level where we want to step. So obviously, working cap at some point may reflect increase in volume. But for the time being, I think in days, we intend to remain where we are. And I remind you, it is one of the KPIs indexing the short-term bonus of the management.

We now have a question from Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.

If I could ask another couple, I'd appreciate it. The first is just on, can you just explain or just be really clear, is there any shipments that need to go through the Strait of Hormuz over the next 6 months? Or can you do everything by truck? And then secondly, just to come back to your comment on Saudi. You may not have any issues getting the Tubes because it's domestically supplied. What about getting the steel into Saudi? Or however the supply chain works before it comes to you guys, how does that work? Is there any risk on that side?

As I said, the billets are coming from Oman. So if you look at the map, there is a way to convey by truck these billets to Saudi. So no issue with the Strait of Hormuz. They are obviously extra costs that are paid by Aramco to our suppliers of green pipes. Then as I told you, our volume in Q3, and I would say in general in H2 in Middle East will increase whether or not the Strait of Hormuz remain closed, which means that all our alternative routes are today in place and will be used to deliver our customers, which leads to extra costs, which are, as we said earlier, negotiated with our customers to be reimbursed in the quarters to come.

[Operator Instructions]

So if there is no more questions. Thank you.

We do have a question. We have Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux. So I'll leave the floor to him.

Kevin, what's your question? No question.

Okay. Maybe Kevin, is your mic on?

Can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you.

Yes, we can.

Yes. Sorry for that. It seems that there was an issue with the line. Very sorry. And a final one and probably you will, let's say, avoid to answer the question, but I have to. Just maybe if you can, let's say, pre-guide on the Q4 improvement that you forecast on the EBITDA, any kind of magnitude that if the situation remains like it is today in the Middle East, the kind of sequential improvement that we should expect Q4 versus Q3, please?

I won't answer your question, even though I just confirmed volume should increase in H2 versus H1 and whether or not the Strait of Hormuz reopen, okay? Well, anyway, thank you very much. Thank you all. While uncertainty around the situation in the Middle East persist, I'm confident that our business can adapt rapidly and take advantage of the improving medium-term outlook we see ahead. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by our customers' plan to restore production capacity in the Middle East and by nation's effort to diversify their oil and gas supply in response to the recent disruption affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Activity in the U.S. continues to build with strong OCTG fundamentals driving volume and price upside. Recent high tendering activity in offshore and deepwater market is translating into strong momentum in our offshore bookings, underpinning profitable growth from 2027. In New Energies, our past efforts are translating to increasingly significant sales volumes with a high growth trajectory. Supported by our From Good to Great Plan operational excellence initiatives, differentiated and innovative product offering and ideally-located manufacturing centers, Vallourec is well positioned to deliver sustainable value creation.