Gary Simmons - Valero Energy Corp.
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is now open
Okay. Roger, I think you know on the diesel side, much like Joe commented in his opening remarks, demand remains very strong both domestically and to the export markets. Domestically, we're seeing about 125,000 barrels a day of demand growth. So despite the fact that we've had record high refinery utilization and distillate production that's above the five-year average range, we really haven't been able to replenish diesel inventories to pre-hurricane type levels. So we continue to see very low diesel inventories, very strong export demand and very strong domestic demand. So moving forward into the third quarter, I think you see some production fall off as we get into turnaround season and refineries come down for turnarounds. And then, of course, as you get later in the year, you'd expect to see some improvement in demand as heating oil season kicks in with some colder weather. So, to me, I think diesel should even be stronger in the prompt market, but when you look at the fundamentals, I think we're in for a very strong diesel year. On the gasoline side, again, gasoline demand looks good domestically and into the export markets. Here with the record-high refinery utilization and increase in gasoline production, gasoline production increases are outpacing the increases in demand a little bit, so we've been able to replenish gasoline inventories to kind of a pre-hurricane type level. As we move forward in the gasoline markets, like diesel, I think you'll see production fall off some with turnaround season. But assuming you don't have some interruption in supply like we saw last year with the hurricanes, I would expect gasoline to follow more seasonal trends, and once you get through driving season through Labor Day and demand falls off a little bit, you'll see gasoline cracks weaken as we get into the fourth quarter. On your crude question, we continue to see good availability in crudes despite declining production in Venezuela. We continue to get above our contract levels there. Seeing good supply from Canada. North American growth continues to exceed expectations and then we're starting to see more OPEC volume make its way to the United States as well.