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Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 25, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Telefonica's January to December 2014 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Pablo Eguirón, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. Pablo Eguirón: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Telefónica's conference call to discuss January-December 2014 results. I am Pablo Eguirón, Head of Investor Relations. Before proceeding, let me mention that this document contains financial information that has been prepared under international financial reporting standards. This financial information is unaudited. This presentation may contain announcements that constitute forward-looking statements, which are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that certain results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. We invite you to read the complete disclaimer included in the first page of the presentation, which you will find on our website. We encourage you to review our publicly available disclosure documents filed with the relevant securities market regulators. If you don't have a copy of the relevant press releases and the slides, please contact Telefónica's Investor Relations team in Madrid by dialing the following telephone number, 34-91-482-8700. Now let me turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. César Alierta, who will be leading this conference call. César Alierta: Thank you, Pablo. Good morning and welcome to Telefónica’s 2014 results conference call. Today with me is José María Álvarez-Pallete, Chief Operating Officer, and Ángel Vilá, Chief Financial and Corporate Development Officer. So during the question-and-answer session you will have the opportunity to address to us any questions that you may have. Before starting, let me briefly explain to you the agenda for this conference call.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nick Brown from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Nick Brown - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Thanks. Three questions please. Firstly, when you talk about Spain returning to growth in 2015, is it realistic to expect the point of inflection may be in the first half? And secondly, I think previously you were guiding for margin stabilization in 2014. Are you expecting you may have to invest more in commercial costs in Spain now to support revenue growth or is there another market where you want this flexibility? Thanks. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Thanks for your question. In Spain we are not guiding in which quarter we are going to be returning back to growth, but the trend set during the fourth quarter indicates that we reaffirm our vision that within 2015 this should be accomplished. The first information that we have for the first month of the year and the advance that we have for the month of February are also driving into this direction. So we cannot be more precise on which quarter, but reaffirm the trend that now Spain is set to be back to revenue growth in 2015. And in terms of margin, we are guiding for limited margin erosion on the basis of: first, overall I'm talking of the consolidated level, the improved revenue trends in all markets, driven, as we have been presenting during the slides on data monetization, a deeper smartphone penetration, LTE and fiber expansion, and smarter bundling. It is true that we are going to be encouraging higher commercial costs, namely commissions and promotions as we see growth ahead of us and we capture -- and we want to capture these revenue trends. But it’s also true that we are going to have higher content costs, namely in countries like Spain and also in Brazil, where our TV offer is booming, and we are building best-in-class video offering and it's gaining traction. As the more traction it gets, the more diluted this effort in content is going to be, taking advantage of the scale and network effect. We are also facing higher network costs as we keep deploying ultra-broadband networks, both fiber and LTE, in all our geographies. But we are also seeing progressive positive impact of synergies generation, namely in Germany, and potentially in Brazil when the GVT transaction will be cleared. Finally, let me stress that we are also seeing progressive, positive impact of the simplification program. We already captured EUR300 million of savings in 2014 ahead of our initial expectation of EUR250 million. So overall we see OIBDA growing significantly in absolute terms and accelerating in 2015 with a limited margin erosion as we see profitable growth ahead of us and we really want to capture it. Should that not be the case, we will be adapting our commercial strategy and therefore adapting our commercial expenses.

Nick Brown - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Right, thanks. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Nick. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the next question from Mandeep Singh of Redburn. Please go ahead.

Mandeep Singh - Redburn

Analyst

Hello. Thank you for taking the question. I had two questions please. First of all, just on Spain, just so we are very clear, are you guiding that Spain will grow for all of 2015 or it will return to growth at some point in 2015? So that's the first question. The second question is really on Brazil. Are you still supportive of consolidation? Do you think it’s likely to happen? And if not, what do you think the future is for Oi? And if you could maybe give some color on sort of concession renegotiations and how you think that might play out for the market as a whole? José María Álvarez-Pallete: Thanks for your questions. In the case of Spain, we are guiding for growth at the end of 2015 on a cumulative basis, not just on a quarter-on-quarter basis but on a cumulative basis.

Mandeep Singh - Redburn

Analyst

Thank you. Ángel Vilá: Regarding Brazil, our focus continues to be getting the approvals for the GVT transaction and reach a successful closing, which we expect in the first half of this year. In the meanwhile, we continue strengthening our position both in mobile and in fixed broadband and we are posting clear growth both in revenue and OIBDA. And GVT, when it finally closes, will reinforce our position, increasing our growth prospects and allowing us to have a convergent footprint and to reach significant synergies. Regarding mobile consolidation, we have stated in the past that we are strong believers in the benefit of in-market mobile consolidation, which we would support and which could generate substantial synergies. But at this stage we are fully focused on GVT and we maintain our full optionality regarding potential consolidation in Brazil.

Mandeep Singh - Redburn

Analyst

And any thoughts on concessions please? José María Álvarez-Pallete: Well, on the concessions, there are not many news around. We are pretty focused on what is going on. We think that, as we have been stating publicly, it’s for all the wireline concessions, there not just for all of us -- for just our case. We think it’s going to have a rational outcome, but too soon to say. I mean, we are positive, but too soon to say.

Mandeep Singh - Redburn

Analyst

Thank you. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Mandeep. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Georgios Ierodiaconou of Citi. Please go ahead.

Georgios Ierodiaconou - Citi

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for taking the questions. I just had a question on Spanish regulation, on the wholesale fiber access that was announced earlier in the year and also on the Digital Plus acquisition, if you could give us an update. And especially a clarification on the Group Capex of 17%, CapEx to sales. The way I interpret it is that this assumes you carry on investing towards 18 million homes passed in Spain. If you would scale that down, does that mean CapEx goes somewhere else, either in Spain or somewhere else in the Group, or will you come a bit lower on CapEx to sales? And then my second question is around Mexico, if you could give us an update of your options there, and whether you confirm that any M&A that will happen in Mexico will still mean you consolidate the resulting assets? Thank you. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Taking the first part of your question on Spain, we are addressing our CapEx effort to the areas that have been considered to have already competition and we will -- we take our coverage in other areas once it is clear what the rules of the game are. But we keep deploying and we keep focus on the areas that have been declared already with significant competition. And the CapEx over sales that we have stated includes this effort and the CapEx guidance that we have been giving for the future includes the assumption that regulation is going to be stable on this subject. César Alierta: With respect to the regulation, now the important thing is that the main challenge of Europe is the digitalization of the economy. And this is very clearly seen by the -- in every country in Europe. And I think I am fairly optimistic that this year there's going to be big changes, big changes in favor of investment, and investment in what, in fiber and LTE. And the framework is going to be more positive for us investing in fiber and LTE. Having said that, my perception of how the regulation is going to be in Spain is very positive, in the sense that everybody wants more digitalization of the Spanish economy, and it means that regulations have to favor it. So I am very optimistic on that. With regard to Digital Plus, I am also fairly optimistic. I think that in the next couple of months it will be approved and we fully complete the transaction. In regards to Mexico, as Àngel and José María have been saying, we are focused on organic growth. The new regulations in Mexico favor us, and this is our main objective. If there is any opportunity that we think is reasonable, we may do it but it has to be reasonable at a fair price. We are very consistent on that, and so we are very enthusiastic about the future of our operations in Mexico.

Georgios Ierodiaconou - Citi

Analyst

Very clear. Thank you. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Georgios. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the next question from Mattieu Robilliard of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Mathieu Robilliard - Barclays

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. I have two questions. First, on Slide 2 of your presentation pack, one of the items you highlight is the strengthening of your portfolio, as opposed to the focusing of your portfolio in the past, so I think Mr. Alierta you just mentioned Mexico as an area potentially for strengthening the portfolio. Generally conceptually, I mean where are the regions where strengthening of the portfolio could take place? Do you see more opportunities in Latin America or in Europe? So that's the first question. And the second question has to do with Brazil. GVT acquisition is not closed, but just thinking about the next few years ahead, obviously one of your competitors on fixed is quite weak. When we compare the GVT coverage to one of Net Service, for example in terms of households passed, there seems to be a big scope for an acceleration of the growth of the network. Is it how you’re thinking about Brazil? By that I mean, would GVT be a good platform to penetrate more households in the regions where you’re not present or you would be more focusing on transforming the existing homes passed into more subscribers? Thank you. César Alierta: Okay. We are very happy with the present footprint and this is where we are. And we are very clear that we are concentrated on our core markets. And our core markets are very clear. It's Latin America, except the three countries in which we are not, which are Honduras, Paraguay and Bolivia, and we are not going to go to Honduras, Paraguay and Bolivia. And in Europe, we are very happy with our position in Germany and Spain, and that’s it. And where we are going to go is in those markets. We…

Mathieu Robilliard - Barclays

Analyst

Thank you very much. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you. Thank you, Mathieu. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Giovanni Montalti of UBS. Please go ahead.

Giovanni Montalti - UBS

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you. Just a question on content, what kind of competition, especially on pricing, do you expect in the content market in Spain going forward? Thank you. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Okay. In Spain, as in other markets, but namely in Spain, we do see revenues accelerating or improving on the basis of a more rational market. Infrastructure-based competition means that all major players in the different markets, but mainly in Spain, are going to -- are building more sophisticated all-IP networks. And that means that the sector is able to offer more sophisticated services both in core attributes like speed or capacity, but also in value-added services like video, financial services, or other. That’s why data traffic is booming overall, and namely in Spain, with significant growth year over year, above 50% in average at the Group level. We have a product as a sector, data, that people love and need. And providing more value is what it is driving effectively higher ARPU. So we see more rationality on the market on the basis of more sophisticated products, a significant infrastructure-based competition, and as a result of all of that, we see better trends in ARPU. And this is going to -- this is what is driving revenue up, and also data monetization in terms of bundling, in terms of out-of-bundle consumption. So overall I think that there is more rationality on the marketplace, focus on churn reduction, and I think that we are going to see better fundamental trends in the Spanish market.

Giovanni Montalti - UBS

Analyst

Sorry, if I may quickly follow up, in this context what kind of let’s say inflation do you expect for the cost of content in Spain? Do you expect significant competition for example from the likes of Vodafone, Ono, or the players that in the past were active in the content arena in Spain? Thank you. José María Álvarez-Pallete: I think that on the content side, you will see that, whenever the Digital Plus transaction would be approved, we'll have a clear picture of what are the remedies that are imposed and therefore what are the wholesale offers that we will need to have. So overall I would say that it’s probably going to go through wholesale offers, but I think that overall the content cost is going to remain under a rational environment. But most of all, take into consideration that pay TV penetration is still very low in Spain, and therefore the more it grows, the more diluted the overall content costs are going to be on the overall customer base. César Alierta: On top of that, you have to think that we are going to expand our pay TV in all Latin America, which the penetration of pay TV is very low, which means the cost per user is going to go down for us very significantly in the coming years. Because if we look at the base of potential costs in pay TV in all the world, it doesn’t have to do with total costs after what José María said, which is right, and we don’t see prices going up in Spain, but the cost per user is going to be going down, down in the coming years. And that’s very good news for us. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Giovanni. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Pedro Oliveira of BPI. Please go ahead.

Pedro Oliveira - BPI

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question, you provided in the last conference call the weight of Fusión in consumer revenues and the weight of consumer revenues in the total Spanish revenues. Can you please provide an update on this breakdown? And the second question was regarding your working capital evolution. In the fourth quarter it seems to be around EUR2.5 billion. EUR400 million are explained by the provision in Germany. I was wondering if you could provide some detail on the remaining evolution. Thank you. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Could you repeat please the second part of your question?

Pedro Oliveira - BPI

Analyst

My second part was your working capital, your consolidated, was around EUR2.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Out of this EUR400 million will be the provision in Germany. The rest EUR2 billion, I was wondering if you could provide some detail to explain the evolution of the working capital [ph] in the fourth quarter. And if there is any relation with Venezuela's evolution. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Okay. Thank you for your question. In terms of Fusión, we have reached 3.7 million customers, with 1.4 million mobile lines on top of that. This is a 27% year-on-year growth. 73% of our fixed broadband is already in Fusión. 57% of mobile contract is already in Fusión. Fusión represents approximately 50% of the residential revenues in Spain, which approximately represent 50% of the total revenues in Spain. Churn in Fusión is 1.1%, significantly stable and significantly contributing to create value out of the product. So this is the overall figures that we have for Fusión. If I may complement, let me remind you that 80% of the existing customers of the add sales and of the gross adds that are coming to Fusion, 80% are coming not to the basic product but to one value-added product. Therefore, the accretion of Fusión, so to say, in terms of value, keeps going up. Ángel Vilá: With respect to working capital in the fourth quarter, it has had a positive impact of EUR2.4 billion. Out of this, we have several factors, some of them recurrent and some of them which are now -- which are just one-time. Among the recurrent ones, we have the typical cyclicality of working capital and the evolution of CapEx accrual versus payments. We also have factoring. But you have to take into account that there are also some positive impacts which are not recurrent. One is the restructuring charge, not only the German one, but the overall restructuring charge. So, something between EUR0.6 billion and EUR0.7 billion that have been taken through EBITDA but will be paid in 2015 and later. Second, part of the cost of spectrum that we accrue in Brazil -- or the cost of the spectrum in Brazil, part will be the clean-up that will be taking place in later years. And this is to the tune of EUR300 million. And then we had also the advanced collection of some deferred payments that we had in the Czech Republic transaction. We had agreed some brand fees and some management fees to be collected across a period of four years from the buyer of the Czech Republic. And we negotiated with them in the fourth quarter to collect them in advance. So these would be some of the impacts that we have in this positive free cash flow figure in the fourth quarter.

Pedro Oliveira - BPI

Analyst

Thank you very much. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Pedro. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Ivon Leal of BBVA. Please go ahead. Ivón Leal - BBVA: Hello. Good morning everybody. Two questions. Maybe the first one in Spain. I think you've announced first price increase in broadband in January, to be applied in April. Do you think there's scope for further price increases in Spain, maybe on mobile and Fusión bundles? And the second one on your financial cost. I don't know if you could remind us what is the average financial cost of debt, and what -- if there is a scope for improvement going forward? José María Álvarez-Pallete: Taking your first question, I mean we are seeing more upselling rather than price increases. What we are doing right now is, the more value we put into the offer, the more we see appetite from consumers to pay for that and to value for that. So this is part of the strategy that we are putting together. And this is especially relevant at the time that we are increasing coverage of both LTE and fiber and on the TV side. So overall I would say that we do see a more rational behavior, both from operators but also consumers more willing to invest more value for more services. So that applies to fixed broadband, but that also applies to mobile contract, that also applies to value added services like voicemail or others. So overall I would say better trends, more rational trends in the Spanish market, yes. Ángel Vilá: Regarding the interest cost. As you can see on Slide Number 29, we are seeing forces that are going in different directions. On the one hand, we have the reduction of interest rates, which is clearly working in the direction of reducing our interest cost. But on the other hand, after we divested, for instance, Czech Republic in Europe and Ireland, we have been cancelling some less-expensive debt in Europe. Also, we had some maturing euro debt that had less cost than the debt that we have in Latin America. So the mix, in a lesser amount of total debt, the mix is moving towards, you know, Latin America is weighting more in the mix of our debt. And the cost of Latin America is -- Latin American debt is 3.5 percentage points higher than the one that you can see in Europe. We are still digesting the higher cost of debt in the refinancing exercises that we had to take through 2011, 2012, and partially 2013. But this impact is going to be fading away, and you will see, progressively, better interest cost flowing through our accounts. We maintain the 5% to 6% range, but we're going to be, in 2015, in the lower part of that range. And in 2016 and forward, it would be improving. Ivón Leal - BBVA: Thank you. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Ivon. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from David Wright of BoAML. Please go ahead.

David Wright - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Yeah. It's David Wright from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Just a couple of things, thank you for a very comprehensive presentation. I had two questions please. First of all, just on the net debt guidance. If you could just maybe talk us through some of the bigger sort of ticket items that you're expecting, so, for instance, the Hutchinson cash and obviously we've got GVT cash out. Are you looking to exploit the option on E-Plus and also whether there are any convertible proceeds expected? So, just the big ticket sort of net debt items in the 2016 guidance please. And then second of all, just a comment on Venezuela. You've moved to SICAD II, but clearly the more commercial rate has gone way beyond that. Is this something that you could be forced to reconsider again in 2015 or is this something you tend to look at on an annual basis? Those two questions, thank you. Ángel Vilá: Thanks, David. On net debt, the first outflow would be the acquisition of GVT. GVT is going to be financed from Telefónica Brasil with capital increase to raise money in cash and then issuing shares to Vivendi. The cash portion would be consequently also financed by a rights issue at Telefónica parent level. The capital increase in Brazil will be to the tune of EUR4.7 billion. Our percentage of that would be EUR3.4 billion. We are going to do a capital -- a rights issue at Telefónica parent of EUR3 billion, less than those EUR3.4 billion, because we feel that we have the room to do so. So, GVT basically is an equity financed transaction and should not have a major impact on net debt. With respect to the O2 UK transaction, we are now in exclusive conversations. We are…

David Wright - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

That's clear. And just to come back on your comments on net debt, I think in the last conference call, when it was clear you guys were maybe just heading a little bit over the original guidance for 2014, you did suggest you could look at hybrid instruments. I assume now with the Hutchinson sale -- sorry, the O2 UK sale, that you would no longer need to go down that route. Is that correct? Ángel Vilá: Yes. That's correct.

David Wright - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

All right. Thank you. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, David. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take a question from Keval Khiroya of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Keval Khiroya - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Thank you. I've got two questions on Brazil, please. I mean, firstly, from an economic perspective, it sounds that the news from Brazil has become a little bit weaker. I think many expect it to be in recession for this year. What are your thoughts on how the Brazilian economy could affect your business in 2015? And secondly, you've done a very good job at cost control in Brazil. OpEx was basically flattish in the second half of 2014 even though the latest inflation is now 6% or 7%. Leaving GVT aside, could you give us some color on whether you think that's sustainable and where maybe the OpEx trends should get to? Thank you. César Alierta: With regards to Brazil, we are very optimistic, being realistic. We expect GDP to grow at least 3%, in the long-term growth of Brazil GDP is going to be higher. You have to take in mind that in the last decade, a large part of the population has become part of the middle class. Now the middle class and the upper income, there are 150 million people. This is one of the biggest markets in the world, 150 million people that are high consumers. The position of the country is very good. External debt is 21% of GDP, and the total debt is 34%. The reserves of the country cover 80% of external debt, so the financial situation that we're seeing, the potential is there, the market is there, and we are very, very happy to be number one in a market like that. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Taking your question on the cost structure of Brazil and the recent evolution. Overall, at the end of 2014, total operating expenses have been flattish, I mean have declined 0.5% in the last quarter and flat…

Keval Khiroya - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

That's very clear. Thank you. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Keval. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Luis Prota of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Luis Prota - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Yes, thank you. Two questions please. The first is a kind of a follow-up on Spain, and you were mentioning your expectations of coming back to revenue-growth in 2015. But it would be very helpful if you could give us some kind of guidelines, in terms of EBITDA margins in Spain. And I'm particularly interested in understanding the content costs, how much would that be on an annual basis, and how is that going to affect EBITDA margins in Spain in 2015 and 2016? And the second question is a bit more a theoretical one on the scrip dividend, relative to the share buyback of shares that you were announcing and the cancellation of 1.5%, which is pretty much in line with the amount of shares from the scrip. So, why keeping the scrip dividend in 2015 instead of just going for an all-cash dividend if, at the end of the day, you are going to buy a similar amount of shares and cancel? So I understand that some shareholders might like the scrip dividend, but it looks like, I don't know, the share buyback you are mentioning is a tactical one, I don't know whether that means that it might happen or it might not. So, anything you could elaborate on that would be helpful. Thank you. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Thanks, Luis, for your questions. Taking the one on Spain, and namely on the OIBDA margin going forward. We are not guiding, as you know, on margin in Spain. Having said that, I can give you some color on the trends that we are seeing. Again overall, out of the total expense figures of Spain, which is EUR6,965 million, it has had a 1.1% decline during 2014. If you open up that between supplies, which is EUR2.6 billion, they…

Luis Prota - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Okay, thank you. Than you. That's clear. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Luis. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Luigi Minerva of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Luigi Minerva - HSBC

Analyst

Yes. Good morning everyone. I have a question on Spain and on how convergence will influence the pricing environment as your competitors will aim to rebalance their fixed and mobile market shares. So, for example, if you take Vodafone-Ono, they have a lower national market share in fixed broadband than in mobile, they should target selling Ono fixed services to Vodafone mobile customers in order to rebalance their market shares. So, how is Telefónica going to react? Will you accept some further loss in fixed broadband market shares, or will you defend your market shares with pricing? Thank you. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Thanks for your question. We see that from another perspective. I mean the consolidation of the market, the example that you gave on Vodafone-Ono, but potentially also the case with Orange-Jazztel, means that the major competitors in Spain on the convergence side are going to have kind of similar overall ARPUs, overall ARPUs, in the blended scenario, which means that the average mobile ARPU and the average wireline ARPU is going to become pretty similar once you put both things together. If on top of that you consider the fact that both companies, both Vodafone and potentially Orange, have been investing significant resources to acquire both Ono and Jazztel, that means that they would need now to defend higher ARPUs in order to make sure that the value that they acquire is not destroyed. So -- and on top of that, let me also remind you that we -- it takes a while before you have a clear picture of what is the blended strategy, because you need to combine systems that are not similar. It took us, in the case of Spain, being in the same company for a long while, almost a year and a half to have a clear picture of the wireline customers that have or have not a wireless offer within the Group. So overall we think that we should expect a more rational performance and behavior from our competitors as they become integrated. And I think it's going to be shown not just in a more rational pricing scenario but also in a more rational subsidies approach, in terms of being more focused on defending their core customer segments. And therefore, we think that the core of the subsidies are going to be devoted at the market level to retain existing customers. This is how we see the market today. We will update you. But in our view, the trends are all going to a more rational behavior in the Spanish market.

Luigi Minerva - HSBC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Luigi. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the next question from Jonathan Dann of Royal Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Dann - Royal Bank of Canada

Analyst

Hi everybody. Just one question -- fantastic results, and I understand the Spanish turnaround very well. A question on cash flow and the EUR0.75 dividend. Going forward, will the decision on whether or not to have a scrip dividend be based on if the annual cash flow is higher than the cash cost of the dividend? Is that -- I mean, I guess to simplify, do you think going forward you will have annual free cash flow of sort of mid-EUR3.5 billion and, hence, be able to pay a full cash dividend? Or is there some other decision around the scrip? Ángel Vilá: The answer is absolutely yes. That's why we're saying that we will move in 2016 to a full cash dividend of EUR0.75 per share.

Jonathan Dann - Royal Bank of Canada

Analyst

Thank you very much. Pablo Eguirón: Thank you, Jonathan. We have time for just one final question please.

Operator

Operator

Okay. We will take our final question from Fernando Cordero of Santander. Please go ahead.

Fernando Cordero - Banco Santander

Analyst

Hello, good morning. Thanks for taking my two questions. The first one is related with the UK and particularly with the Sky agreement, MVNO agreement. I would like to know to which extent this contract is already similar in terms of the structure of the contract to the new MBA MVNO contracts to be signed in Germany, just to understand at which extent this contract is already aligned with the potential remedies to be seen into the O2 regulatory approval process. And the second question is related with regulation in Brazil. On top of the discussions, or the general discussions or talks on potential changes on the fixed concession framework, I would like also to know if you are expecting or foreseeing any kind discussions on other changes in the regulatory framework, like, for example, talks about the spectrum caps, about the spectrum re-farming in Brazil and so on. Thanks. José María Álvarez-Pallete: Thanks for your question. On the UK question, on the Sky MVNO, the contract, as you might imagine, is subject to confidentiality clauses, but it's nothing different of the kind of contract that we have signed with other plays like TalkTalk. For us, the good news is that big wholesale customers like Sky, being able to choose between different options, decided to choose for O2. And the answer to that is that because we have right now the best customer experience in the world network. In terms of if that can be considered a remedy for the potential outcome of the consolidation that is going on in the UK market; well, it certainly creates a new player in terms of the mobile side. But again, this is not a major game changer considering the current scenario of MVNOs in the UK. In terms of the regulation in Brazil, we are holding discussions with the regulators, I mean because of the GVT transaction and also because of the concessions, we are discussing mainly on every single matter. But we do see a more, I would say, rational approach in all fronts in Brazil as well. The LTE spectrum has already been auctioned as you know; in 2015 we will be cleaning up the spectrum in order to prepare it to being exploited. And in terms of spectrum caps; too soon to say. I mean we -- it's all going to depend on the final picture on the Brazilian market, which is a moving target as we speak. So, no major news that I can share with you on that front, unfortunately.

Fernando Cordero - Banco Santander

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. Many thanks. César Alierta: Well, thank you very much for your presence in this conference call and for your questions, which have been very important. I want to remark again that 2012-2014 has been a key transformation of Telefonica into a telco digital. We are very, very confident that 2015 and 2016 are going to be really growth years. On top of that, I just want to add a comment that I think the chain of regulation in the digital ecosystem is going to change for much better in this year and in the next year for the telcos, and the value chain is going to be what it has to be. And that will be very good news for all of us. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Telefonica's January to December 2014 Results Conference Call is now over. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.