Russell Diez-Canseco
Analyst · Matt Smith with Stifel
Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start, as I always do, by thanking our crew and farmers. I believe they're the best in the business, and it is my privilege to work alongside them in our effort to improve the lives of people, animals and the planet through food. I want you to take 3 key messages away today. The results we saw in the first quarter and scanner data so far in the second quarter fall short of our expectations, because price gaps reached levels that our brand could not sustain. We believe we're adapting quickly to this new more pressured environment by reducing price gaps, addressing our cost structure and managing cash. To be clear, we believe our brand will support a price premium, just not as much as we've seen over the past few months. Finally, we see this as a reset of our expectations for 2026, but not a reset of our ambitions. The underlying opportunities that have driven our growth for over 15 years and the strengths that Vital Farms brings to the marketplace remain. We believe we can fulfill our purpose and drive profitable growth in both good and bad markets. Let me start with setting the stage a bit and remind you how we thought about this year going into it. We entered this year armed with the benefits of our work from 2024 and 2025, expanded consumer awareness and the playbook to convert that awareness into profitable growth through household trial and expanded distribution. That work was enabled by our expanded farm network, processing capacity investments at Egg Central Station and the improved workflows and data accessibility from our ERP implementation. We expected commodity egg prices to fall as the industry experienced a much milder avian influenza season and flocks were rebuilt. With that context in place, our strategy going into the first quarter was to increase investments in promotions back to levels appropriate for a market that is well supplied. So what changed? The outdoor access subcategory in which we compete has continued to command a strong price premium at retail. However, it moved down directionally with the broader market. Against this backdrop, our first quarter promotions proved insufficient, because pricing across the category declined much more than fundamentals would have suggested, price gaps reached levels we hadn't seen in the past, and we found the limits of what our brand could sustain. We believe this increase in price gaps has driven the sharp reduction in velocities we have seen in many markets. It's important to note that despite these price gaps, our existing base of consumers have remained loyal. However, the rate at which new households are trying us for the first time dropped significantly. In 2024 and 2025, more than 55% of our consumers were households that had not bought us previously. That dropped to just 50% in the first quarter of 2026. This demonstrates our reduced ability to convert growing brand awareness into trial at these price gap levels. In contrast, our consumer data also shows that our existing consumers continue to be loyal and have generally resisted trading down to lower priced alternatives. Buy rates are holding up very well with units per retained household 2% higher in the first quarter than the average for the prior 8 quarters. In other words, the larger-than-expected price gaps have led to a slowdown in new consumer acquisition, which shows up in market data as a slowdown in velocity. Therefore, our focus now is to reduce price gaps, and our data indicates that this will make a difference. Our data shows that in geographies where price gaps to outdoor access competitors have widened the most, volume growth is negative. And where price gaps have remained more moderate, we continue to see healthy growth without needing to race to the bottom on promotions. That means we need to narrow these price gaps in the marketplace in a targeted way, geography by geography and retailer by retailer. That work is underway, and we believe initial efforts show positive results. For example, we recently addressed price gaps at a top 10 customer, bringing them from about 35% above a group of competing premium branded outdoor access eggs to about 25% and volumes increased by 18% after just 2 weeks compared to the prior 4 weeks. Even with price reductions, we believe we still command a meaningful premium to our most direct competitors and can earn an attractive margin. It will take time to fully align the cost structure with these price levels, but we believe that we can generate the gross margins and EBITDA margins necessary to deliver strong shareholder value. The other aspect of our strategy going into the year, converting a more adequate supply into distribution gains is playing out as we expected. We're seeing strong distribution momentum with additional placements and resets expected to take effect as we move through the middle and back half of the year. Retailers are highly interested in our brand and the productive conversations with our retail partners that we mentioned on the fourth quarter call a few months ago are bearing fruit. We've secured an at least 50% TDP increase with a top 3 customer, negotiated direct distribution instead of going through a distributor with a top 10 customer and have been assigned the category captain role for eggs with a banner of another top 3 customer. This is in addition to several distribution wins with customers across all geographies. All-in, we anticipate that we will add 20 to 30 TDPs or 15% to 25% over the course of 2026, and we expect to produce our single best yearly gain in TDP since going public as measured in Circana MULO+ for Shell eggs. Additionally, looking at the quarterly average, we've already ended the first quarter at 149.8 PDPs compared to a fourth quarter 2025 average of 144.8 and 115.8 in the first quarter of 2025 and expect the quarterly average could be between 170 to 175 in the fourth quarter of 2026, given the visibility we already have to commitments for new placements later in the year. We're also adapting quickly to this new more pressured environment by addressing our cost structure and managing cash expenditures. Narrowing price gaps requires a higher level of investment than we anticipated entering the year, reflecting the lower prices we're seeing in the marketplace. This will compress margins more than we initially forecast at least through the remainder of this year. There is work to do to adapt our cost structure to this environment, and we're pursuing it with rigor. Much of that work across both COGS and SG&A is already underway, but we expect much of the impact will be realized in 2027 and beyond. As a result, we view 2026 as a low watermark for margins in this cycle with our primary focus this year on returning the top line to volume-driven growth. We view 2027 as the year we will bring the underlying economics of the business back to a level that appropriately reflects the value we create through our brand and differentiated supply chain. Actions we're taking to adapt our cost structure and underlying economics include the following: First, we're right-sizing supply. A big impact on our short-term margins is the cost of oversupply relative to our current rate of retail sales. Because we buy eggs from our farmer partners regardless of the retail sales environment, temporary imbalances between supply and demand can create a costly supply overhang. In the short run, this results in expanded inventories and then increased low revenue sales to the breaker channel. Since we expect the supply-demand mismatch to persist over the coming months, we're working with some of our farmer partners to manage supply through voluntary amendments to their contracts to cease production from existing blocks or delay placement of future blocks. In return, we make payments to the farmers to compensate them for the foregone profits, but that still represents meaningful savings versus the full cost of buying eggs we don't need. You will see the impacts of this in our results this year. We expect that these actions taken throughout 2026 will bring supply in line with our projections for the rest of the year. Second, we're reducing COGS. The first action we're taking to reduce COGS is addressing staffing at ECS. We have adjusted our staffing plan at ECS to better match labor costs with processing volume and anticipate this to eliminate approximately $4 million of costs for the year. We're also working on COGS more broadly with feed costs being a promising target. Last year, feed accounted for roughly $125 million in COGS. Work is underway to lower our expenses, and we expect improvements to flow through our P&L in 2027. Third, we are managing SG&A. This week, we eliminated roles representing approximately 10% of our remote or non-ECS head count. While these actions are never taken lightly, they are appropriate given the business reality and reflect an ability to capture savings from our ERP implementation and other innovations in our ways of working. Fourth, we're controlling CapEx. We have slowed our rate of investment in certain growth-related projects to better align them with our current environment. Most critically, we will meaningfully slow the construction of our planned Vital Crossroads facility in Seymour, Indiana, and will reaccelerate only when we have more clarity on the exact timing of the need for incremental capacity. As a reminder, we have over $1 billion in revenue capacity from exit ECS. We've also paused the construction of our accelerator farms. We will continue to operate the 6 farms already built and maximize learnings from them. These 2 actions allow us to reduce projected 2026 CapEx by approximately $75 million, while also maintaining optionality to add back that additional capacity as early as the second half of 2027. Fifth, we are exiting butter. We have made the decision to exit our butter business, ending shipments toward the end of the year. We expect that this will free up $25 million in cash this year, reduce sales by an estimated $14 million in 2026 and improve gross margin by 150 to 200 basis points starting in 2027. This was not an easy decision, but we believe it's the right one, both for its near-term impact on our economics and because it refocuses human and financial capital to pursue more productive growth opportunities. The complexity of an international supply chain in a very uncertain global trade backdrop contributed to our conclusion that this was no longer an appealing business for us. All of this means that we need to update our guidance for the year. Our focus now is on restoring strong volume growth. With the need to address pricing in a very strategic fashion in the market, our revenue outlook and our margin expectations have changed. In addition, because especially in the first half of the year, our supply is meaningfully higher than our demand, we are incurring extra costs to reduce our supply. With that, we are reducing our net sales guidance to a range of $775 million to $800 million for 2026 and adjusted EBITDA to $0 to $10 million. This EBITDA guidance includes the negative impact from an estimated $32 million of supply management costs for this year. The slowdown of the work on Seymour and the pause in the build-out of Accelerator Farms allows us to reduce CapEx guidance to a range of $70 million to $75 million. We assume that we will have to maintain the current level of pricing investments through the balance of the year. Even at these levels, we anticipate underlying gross margin to return to 30% by late Q4 and adjusted EBITDA margin to get back to double digits in 2027. I also want to be very clear that the underlying opportunities that have driven our growth for over 15 years haven't diminished. We continue to have strong confidence in the opportunities presented by the premium outdoor access egg category and our ability to win over the long term, even in a challenged category and macro environment. There is a continuing secular shift in consumer preferences for clean label whole foods. Consumers continue to vote with their wallet for both premium branded and private label alternatives to the status quo. In fact, adoption is accelerating. Outdoor access eggs have grown from 8% of category volume in 2023 to 15% so far in 2026, even with commodity eggs at their cheapest in years. In fact, year-to-date alone, outdoor access eggs have grown 32% versus prior year in volume compared to mainstream eggs growing only 4% despite the lowest price in years. I would like to end by reiterating some of the key strengths by which I believe Vital Farms will continue to win even in a more competitive environment. We have built a brand on transparency and trust, which are rare and increasingly important to consumers. Our network of farmers and differentiated supply chain, including our own packing plant, have demonstrated real resiliency and neither is easy to replicate. We have a winning track record with our retail partners. We're demonstrating the value of that partnership by expanding our distribution and leaning further into joint business planning to drive long-term growth. And underpinning all of this is our crew. We view their capability and commitment to our purpose and values as a genuine competitive advantage. In summary, the results we saw in the first quarter and that we have seen so far in scanner data in the second quarter fall short of our expectations because price gaps reached levels that our brand could not sustain. We believe we're adapting quickly to this new more pressured environment by reducing price gaps, addressing our cost structure and managing cash. We see this as a reset of our expectations for 2026, but not a reset of our ambitions. The underlying opportunities that have driven our growth for over 15 years and the strength Vital Farms brings to the marketplace remain. Now let me turn it over to Thilo to walk you through more detail behind what we've shared today.