Kjell Johnsen
Analyst · Cesar Tiron, please ask your question
Thank you, Ursula. I’m very happy to report on overall very good numbers and I’d like to take you through some of the key operating companies. Let me start with the biggest one in Russia. Well, we would say that the operating environment is fairly challenging, we’re executing on the strategy of optimizing our monobrands in a bid to focus on value creation in the market rather than Euroset. This has been giving results, we see ARPU still increasing, but the growth coming down. We’re also executing on strengthening our networks to build a more robust position in Russia. The overall target going forward for the management of Russia would be to stabilize the customer base in fairly challenging markets. In the fixed area, I’m happy to report that for the first time in many, many quarters, we’re back to some growth and that is due an effort over quite some time to upgrade our city range and our [indiscernible] businesses leading for the first time in many quarters growth in Russia. The challenge going forward will be within the mobile market where we do see a very active company towards price points on flat rates and we’re still trying to drive the market towards by being predictable, but we think that this can take a bit of time before the turnaround comes in the overall mobile market of Russia. We expect to stabilize the customer base and try to move the market back towards some ARPU growth overtime. When it comes to Ukraine, I’m very happy to report solid performance. Ukraine, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are markets where we can play quite a leading role in developing the overall markets. We’re taking that responsibility and setting the market conditions in the Ukraine and that leads to value creation and growth. Some of these countries have relatively high inflation and we need to compensate for that overtime, which is the task that we put in front of ourselves. Kyivstar has developed a strong 4G network which came along way although in the last year we’re continuing to build-out capacity and coverage and we’re also now increasing to putting some effort into developing our fixed line as soon as we’re a key overall telecom operator in the country. We’ve a quite big development or topics program pushed out into the Ukraine, so I’m pretty sure that we will have a strong backing core continuing the performance also into next year. We’ve very good news in terms of the ability to upstream cash from the Ukraine. The Central Bank has liberalized the market giving us the opportunity to take out our profits from the Ukraine without the limitations that we have in the past, which is of course, a solid contribution to the overall group. In Pakistan, we’re again, like I said, executing as market leader. We’re well underway on the 4G, we see that we’re performing good relative to the other main players in the markets. We’ve had a lot of external factors influencing the business, the suo moto and the amortization fees. The suo moto of course was helpful to our numbers for some period of time and has been abolished, but we are also seeing the underlying growth excluding the suo moto coming in with very healthy numbers. So the secular growth of population in Pakistan is of course helping us in the long run and our ability to perform versus competition seems to be at the same strong level as it was in the previous quarters. Coming over to Algeria, very challenging from the political thing, we are working in the market full of turbulence. We have been able to develop our network resources in a decent way over the last couple of quarters. The turbulence has actually not been able to take away some of the opposite rules we had in the past, but is still a difficult landscape to navigate. Compared to competition, we do see the earnings announcements of others that we have had a good quarter and we are relatively satisfied with the overall development in Nigeria. Although of course, would have liked to see more stability and an economy coming back to growth. Bangladesh has moved from being a drag in our performance to now showing very strong numbers. We see improvements quarter-over-quarter leading onto the growth figures of this one with 5.4% top-line growth. This is down to a very surgical approach of where we apply our CapEx. The Bangladesh management team has done an excellent job providing the CapEx where it gives good return on our investments. And we are now more hopeful that we will see positive trends staying on for some time. It's still a complicated market from a regulatory point of view, but we have seen a good ability of navigating those obstacles over the last year or two. There are some developments in Bangladesh that we have to relate to, its introduction of the SMP regime. We're just going to have some impact to our business, but net-net it should be positive for Banglalink. Uzbekistan another one of those markets where we execute the strategy as market leaders. We have strengthened the organization there quite significantly. We are executing well on driving ARPUs up in the market. We are far ahead of the plans of the 4G rollout. So we are building strength in the position in Uzbekistan and Uzbekistan is also one of those countries where we have secular population growth. So it's a long-term bet that has a good potential for long-term growth. We also see that the authorities of the Central Bank are handling the reserve situation very well. So we are able to upstream money out of Uzbekistan which was of course not the case, if you go back two years ago. There are some tax effects that we have to relate to here. At the end of last year, there was some excise tax put in place which cosmetically leads to negative numbers for us on the top-line, at EBITDA it evens out. The good news is that while introducing the excise tax, the authorities also reduced the sum tax from 4000 Sums to 2000 Sums which is a positive step. So overall, we'll continue to advocate a better structure of the tax system of Uzbekistan and net-net business improvement overtime for VEON. That will take me to the key of course, so I'm happy to take any questions that you all might have. Trond Westlie So going to the financial results we are delivering another good quarter with our second quarter 2019 results. The total reported revenue is $2.3 billion. That is 7.5% organic growth and slightly below zero or flat each year-over-year in dollar terms. We’re also reporting EBITDA if you look at same reporting level pre-IFRS 16 of $866 million that's 11.1% organic growth year-over-year and 1% reported growth year-over-year. The reported post-IFRS is higher due to the changes of accounting policies which is just short of $1 billion, which is a recorded growth of just above 16%. A couple of specifics this quarter, we have a revenue of other income of $38 million coming from Kazakhstan and in the EBITDA that flows through, but in addition to that as a result of the DTH settlement on taxes, EBITDA is charged with $27 million. So the net effect is limited on the EBITDA, but its $38 million effect on revenue base. Going to the equity free cash flow pre-IFRS that's just short of $250 million that includes all the two effects I mention on the Kazakhstan of $38. It's the first payment of taxes in DTH with just above $50 million and in addition to that it's including the second payment from Ericsson of 175. But if you look at the effect year-over-year and the cyclicality of the year it really follows the flow as previous years. Reported post-IFRS numbers is 338. Going then to the revenue and EBITDA development by country, we see that [indiscernible] Pakistan and Ukraine driving the growth. Pakistan a very good market, but also one caveat, just a small caveat in it is, suo moto is a part of the second quarter number in April but not in May and June. On Ukraine, we do have as also as you’ve mentioned from data led growth that drives the revenue development. On the other side of $60 million in growth we see it's the Kazakhstan element that is giving the high number of 60. That leaves us on organic $2.439 billion, ForEx expect is 179. Even though it's high, it's actually much lower than it was in first quarter because the first quarter number were just belong $300 million. So it's not half-in or we getting close to half effect of quarter-over-quarter effect on the revenue side. Now that of course, drifts through to the EBITDA and cash flow. On the EBITDA, same trend line as we see on the revenue, Pakistan and Ukraine is driving the development and in other parts of [quartile] and the tax element is also driving on the other side. So same trend lines on the Russia side, as Kjell mentioned there as well, challenging market some of the effects is down the DAT change that has happened as well as the [indiscernible] calculation that will have some effects on the quarterly numbers on Russia. If you look at in the next page on revenue and EBITDA byproduct, the data revenue is driving the organic growth and its really strong growth. We see an organic growth of more than 22% in the data revenue that means the organic part of it and then the reported part is about 14% on the data revenue growth. If we then go to the EBITDA involvement, we see that service revenue is going up $106 million and cost is just going up 11% and there you actually see the effect over the cost intensity improvements as we have done in the second quarter. We're going down with cost intensity of 2.7% year-over-year in second quarter and we’re on a good trajectory to actually deliver on our longer-term plan over 1% a year. That also leads to a margin increases. So the 951 is actually a margin increase from up till 38.3% that's 0.6% margin increase better than last year. The ForEx effect on the EBITDA is 86. If you actually deduct the 86 from the 951, you get to 866 and that means that coming from last year 857, it's actually covering for all the currency effects, the improvements of efficiency together with the revenue increase. Going into the overview of the income statement starting on the EBITDA level, we have the normal three columns we have the reported second quarter 2019. We have a pre-IFRS 16 to have numbers comparable to the reported number of 18 in the third column. And as you can see, 2019 in the mid column 866 as I just mentioned is actually even with the reported number last year in U.S. dollars. Depreciation goes a bit down compared to last year and that leaves us an operating profit on pre-IFRS of 449 compared to the 383 last year. If you look at the current income and expenses comparable to last year 153, down due to leverage decline meaning that we’re paying less interest slightly countered by the change of hedging that we did last year to increase our Ruble denomination and as a result of that that interest cost of course is a little bit more expensive. But that leaves us a profit before tax of 285 in pre-IFRS numbers and reported number of 256. If you look at the pre-IFRS 16 numbers and compare them to 2018 numbers it's actually an increase of more than $124 million year-over-year. In the tax line on 2019, there are two adjustment effects one is, $29 million coming out of the settlement in GTH this quarter and the second one is, an adjustment of a deferred tax assets as we had in the headquarter that has been written down with no cash effect. That leaves us at $187 million on pre-IFRS number and $182 million in the second quarter reporting. And net profit attributable to VEON shareholders according to second quarter 2019 reported number is now $70 million up from $142 million of loss last year. If you then go to the cash flow slide, you see that from an operational view, every country is contributing positively to the operational cash flow. Of course, headquarter is a cost element as we mentioned before and we see the evolvement of working capital is a positive one mostly driven by the Ericsson countered by the supplement of GTH. And then interest tax and other, I will come back to that on the next page. On the next page, is the usual net debt flow starting the quarter or starting the quarter with the debt of just sort of $6.2 billion, you see the normal effect of EBITDA, working capital, finance charges, taxes and CapEx really driving the volume now specifics, beyond the three elements that I mentioned in this and that leaves us at a net debt of 6.1 slightly down from end of first quarter and still a giving ratio of 1.7. Going then to the guidance and in terms of financial guidance, Q2 was another strong quarter for the group operationally with both revenues and EBITDA before exceptional items anticipating above the guidance points we communicated at our full year results 2018 presentation. As a result the group performance achieved during the first half leave us directionally trending above our guidance points of low single-digit organic revenue and low to mid single-digit EBITDA growth. However, the second half of 2019 looks more challenging with little or no sign of competition easing in Russia, Pakistan and Algeria and persistent headwinds of macro factors and changes in local tax regimes across many of our markets. Equity free cash flow guidance remains at around $1 billion for the full year, which includes exceptional items like Ericsson and [quartile]. But please also note that business does not include the impact of the tax payments in GTH in Egypt. Underlying this is a long term run rate or equity free cash flow generated by our operating businesses over around $800 million which I discussed in some detail during our full year 2018 results in February. As before, I will caution that equity free cash flow remains dependent on the movement of our functional currency against U.S. dollars which we cannot control however, we continue to mitigate this. So the things we can control particularly cost intensity of reduction and driving growth in services across our operating companies. So with that I hand it back to Ursula for her closing comments.