Earnings Labs

VEON Ltd. (VEON)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 25, 2019

$50.41

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Transcript

Richard James

Management

Well, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to VEON's 2018 results presentation. Today, I'm pleased to be joined on the stage by Ursula Burns, VEON's CEO; Trond Westlie, VEON's CFO; Kjell Johnsen, our COO; and Vasyl Latsanych, the CEO of Beeline Russia. Ursula will start the presentation with a brief review of 2018, Kjell will then give a digital update and a review of individual country performances then Trond will provide more detail on the group results and our outlook. Then, we'll hand over to Vasyl, who will provide an overview of the Russian market and more detail on Beeline strategy. And then, we will ensure that there's ample time for questions at the end. Before getting started, I'd like to remind you - I'd like to remind you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's presentation, which involves certain risks and uncertainties, these statements relate in part to the company's anticipated performance and guidance for 2019, future market developments and trends, operational and network development, and network investments, and the company's ability to realize its targets and strategic initiatives including current and future transactions. Certain factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements including the risks detailed in the company's Annual Report on Form 20-F. And other recent public filings made by the company. The earnings release and earnings presentation, each of which include reconciliations with non-IFRS financial measures presented today can be downloaded from our website. I would now like to hand over to Ursula, to review our achievements of 2018.

Ursula Burns

Management

Thank you, Richard. Good morning. And for all of you on the line, welcome and thank you for joining us, to you in the room as well, for our 2018 presentation. Let me start today's presentation by reflecting on the year, on 2018. It was a transformative year for the company. 2018 saw large scale movements in geopolitics, in currencies around the world and in economics in general at a global level and it actually impacted VEON very directly. It was also a year of significant change in our company. We implemented a new operating model and executed a major disposal to streamline our operation and focus them on emerging markets very narrowly. VEON's portfolio of leading emerging markets' mobile communications operators offers exciting prospects for the future success of the Group, as these are markets that are attractive and have attractive opportunities in population growth, in prosperity growth, and in this very important area of smartphone penetration. Each of the markets presents distinct challenges as well, not least of which is foreign exchange exposure, which both Trond and Kjell will get into a little bit. This is one of the reasons that we implemented a new operating model at the center that helps us to reduce cost that gave our operating companies more flexibility to operate locally and to make the most of the local market opportunities and address the challenges very directly. It is the balance of these opportunities and challenges in these exciting markets that led me to accept the Board's offer to take on the role of VEON's CEO on a permanent basis. Now, as a reminder, we set four immediate strategic priorities when I came on board in last July. We focused on creating greater value for our shareholders. And we have delivered on all…

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

And good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining us today. I'll start off with the digital part and then I'll try to take the main operations in a kind of summary fashion. But looking into the digital side, there's been a lot of talk about the digital ambitions of VEON and our approach to it. The main thing that we have adjusted is we are now putting more responsibility with our OpCos, and that has been a success. In several of our OpCos, we have competencies that are top of the line, really at a world-class level, and we see that bringing more responsibility to the operations also creates a motivation and an excitement that we are building on. Within digitizing the core, it's all about streamlining, it's that in the future you are more likely to be in touch with a bot than with a person, which is the way many industries are going. We announced today our new agreement with Ericsson, so that lays the foundation for building what is still going to be a world-class BSS system in the telco industry. So the adjustments we make are made because Ericsson is not pursuing the revenue-manager model. The rest of the systems will be very good, we have them in place in Georgia, have them in place in Algeria, and we're continuing to develop this in a partnership with Ericsson. Due to the work of Vasyl and Yogesh, our CTO, we have also landed a great agreement with Amdocs. Amdocs has been our partner in Russia for many and many years, we are now taking that corporation to the next level. And I think that brings a good balance to our portfolio. We have two very strong names that are committed to building excellent services…

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Thank you, Kjell, and good morning from me as well to everybody here, as well as the ones online. So, Ursula were alluding to the year as such, so I'm going to focus on the fourth quarter results. Delivering good results in fourth quarter $2.25 billion of revenue and $714 million in EBITDA, that's 5.3% growth on the top-line, and we see 10% year-on-year growth in EBITDA, specifically helped by Pakistan and Ukraine, delivering $230 million of equity free cash flow in the quarter. Of the $2.2 billion of revenue that is $550 million of mobile data revenue, which is slightly more than 30% increase year-over-year in mobile data. I'll come back to that as well. The net leverage ratio is 1.7 after selling off Italy and has come down significantly from last year, and is well below the 2 times that we have said that we're comfortable with. On the corporate cost, fourth quarter is slightly higher than the previous quarters, due to the fact that we have some severance provisions in that quarter of $52 million. If I exclude that $52 million, we have a year-over-year decrease of more than 34%, fourth quarter over fourth quarter. So we're very much in line with delivering on the cost intensity or the cost improvements. When we go to the revenue and the EBITDA development, not going to spend too much time on it, but on revenue side, you see that the development is very much driven by Pakistan and Ukraine. I think that's the overall drivers for this quarter. Russia is picking up slightly, and when you look at the EBITDA, that's the same element. In addition to that, I think the year-over-year development is also influenced by Bangladesh and Algeria flattening out. So if you look at the fourth…

Vasyl Latsanych

Management

Thank you, Trond. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. After that very scientific presentation, I feel like I should give a little blockbuster or some real action going on in the market of Russia. So let me start with the Russian market overview. My name is Vasyl Latsanych. And I'm responsible for Russian business of VEON, which has always been called VimpelCom in Russia, and the brands that we are using in Russia for many, many years, is one of the most renowned brands in the country, which is Beeline brands. Russia is a huge country with huge potential that you have heard many times, why is that so in our industry? It is because the population of Russia of 140 million is rapidly getting online, rapidly going digitalized. And now, we have about 90 million of monthly Internet users across the country. Of 140 million, we understand that some old people, some very young people that probably comprises all of the active population of the country. Our task is to make that usage more than a monthly usage, by the weekly usage, a daily usage. And that's why we are there, working on penetration of the devices, of the technologies, of the networks, to enable people to go online anytime and anywhere. Actually people do. The average number of social accounts in Russia is about 4 per person. And it's not all about the Facebook, there is Facebook, there is Vkontakte, there is Odnoklassniki, so only the social networks in their pure essence is represented by three different players that competes with each other. Their proliferation of different messengers, you've probably heard about Telegram, but there is also Viber, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Skype messenger, everything is present in the market. People are using it very actively. Except for the social…

A - Richard James

Management

Yeah, very welcome. We have two microphones over there to be used.

Stella Cridge

Management

Hi, there, Stella Cridge from Barclays Credit Research. And I wanted to ask about, if you don't mind, these press reports on Friday night that VEON had engaged in a discussion last year to sell the Russia business. I was just wondering if you could confirm if that report is factually correct or not, and the [top-two] [ph] place. And in particular, does it relate just to Russia? Or does it include the Kazakh and the Uzbek businesses which were in that unit as well? And if this is the case, what would be the motivations for VEON to dispose off this unit?

Ursula Burns

Management

Let me start and then the team can join in. Generally, we don't comment on rumors. So it's the first. But I will say that we did not engage in a discussion to sell our unit last year. If we did, across the board we would not actually disclose it until it was at a maturity point that was worth disclosing.

Stella Cridge

Management

And also, you spent quite a large part of the morning, giving us a great update on the outlook for the business and recent developments. Is it of a unit that you consider absolute core to the VEON group? I mean, obviously, it's a huge part of EBITDA and cash flow. Or is this something you would ever hypothetically consider exiting?

Ursula Burns

Management

Ever and hypothetically, I will not discuss. I mean, ever hypothetically, I probably wouldn't even be here. It is core to our businesses though. It's well run. It's large, about half the business. And it has great prospects going forward. So our goal and intention is to run it well. I think Vasyl did a great job in explaining that we're not just a telco provider anymore, in just about any of our markets. But we're actually trying to expand the market to engage our customers more across a varying set of revenue generation possibilities. So it's core. It's key. And we want to make sure that it continues to be fed adequately, so that it can grow.

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

I don't think there is much to add.

Ursula Burns

Management

Yeah.

Stella Cridge

Management

If I can sneak in one final one before I pass the microphone? Obviously, you've made the second move to acquire minorities within GTH. I was just wondering if you could give us an update on your expected timeline in this move. And also, has anything changed in the Egyptian market that you would be hopeful that this would be successful this time in contrast to the previous attempt?

Ursula Burns

Management

Let me take the second part and then, Trond, if you can take the first part. Time helps everything, right? And visibility to what works in the past or didn't work in the past helps move projects like this along. This involves government, obviously, and working and lots of other partners, minority shareholders, a whole bunch of infrastructure in the government, and just continuing to work to kind of to polish the P, and make it more perfected, makes it more possible to succeed as you go forward. And that's basically what we're doing. I mean, just literally continuing to engage and expand our communications and our base of believers. And if we continue to do that, we hope to be able to succeed this time. This is not straightforward and easy. I mean, this is like, I said, with governments and it's very - and shareholders and it's very challenging but...

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

No, but I think that's the fundamental development that we have been doing to feel that it's - be better prepared and the recipients or our proposal for the MTO is better prepared. That means the Egyptian stakeholder banks, the Egypt as such and stakeholders there. So I do think that's the reason for the timing as such. And we feel that, yes, everything is more mature and more prepared now than it was a year ago.

Ursula Burns

Management

And timeline, we'll have to see. We push it every day. We are working with the associated parties every day and we're pushing it to try to make it as quickly as possible. But who knows, for sure?

Anna Kazaryan

Management

Hello, Anna Kazaryan from VTB Capital. Thank you for this event and the opportunity to ask questions. Can I ask several questions about Russian market? So can you give your outlook, for example, for competition on the Russian market? Do you see the opportunity to change tariffs in near term? And what might be the future of tariffs in Russian market? Can you clarify, do you expect any significant effect from VAT increase? There were several media reports that operators adjusted some [archive for ISIS] [ph] and some corporate tariffs to compensate for VAT increase. And also, could you clarify your plans about future relationships with multi-brand retail networks, particularly, any plans to prolong your interactions with the Euroset? And the last question is regarding the CapEx in Russian market. Particularly, what might be the incremental increase of CapEx in Russia, excluding Yarovaya Law expenses? And could you specify what might be the spendings on Yarovaya Law implementation this year? Thank you.

Ursula Burns

Management

Vasyl, why don't you take that?

Vasyl Latsanych

Management

I would. Well, let's take those one by one. So the competition, Russian market is very competitive. It's hugely competitive in several regions. And we do take - participate in that competition. So there's nothing left to live on its own in Russian market. That is driving the penetration, driving the usage. But yes, that's undermining the potential for the growth. We hope and we work towards the stability in the markets. And we usually are the latest one, the last one to engage in any competitive battles in Russian markets. If you take a look and track back those competitive activities, you would see that Beeline would never be the first or the second one to engage. So it's rather a question to our competitors whether they want to tame it down and to finally start a growth mode of the business in several regions. But all over the place, as you've noticed, we have grown the ARPU by more than 5%. And that's thanks to the various tariff initiatives. When we see people - well, you look into our megabytes per user numbers of the last year, and you would see that our users have increased their usage by more than 30% that we have managed to reflect adequately in our tariff plans, construction and pricing effectively. And we have managed to overall increase the ARPU, giving people more access to more megabytes, more gigabytes of the traffic, but with an increase of the tariff plans so that, that compensates for the downward trends in some of the competitive regions. And also, it does allow us to compensate for some headwinds like the internet roaming cancellation. The VAT has been tackled by different measures in the market of different players, where there is no straightforward increase of the…

Anna Kazaryan

Management

What about the CapEx?

Vasyl Latsanych

Management

Yeah, the CapEx. I think we are not in a position to disclose the CapEx number for the next year, but we are continuing the execution of the plan of the network development both in mobile and in the fixed. And without naming how many base stations, how many houses we will build this year, I should say that it's on a - the client is big. And it's going to be financed adequately by the CapEx and OpEx, but there is a goal to make it very smart and make it very efficient this year, even more efficient than the last year.

Anna Kazaryan

Management

Any specific plans about Yarovaya…?

Vasyl Latsanych

Management

We have initially stated the expected amount for Yarovaya implementation. That calculation has not changed. It has shifted on in time, meaning that we have spent less in 2018, but we will not spend more in 2019 than we initially planned. It will just have a longer tail into the 2020 and potentially, 2021.

Alastair Jones

Management

Alastair Jones from New Street Research. Just a few questions. Firstly, coming back to the CapEx in Russia. I mean, the one thing that does stand out is how much you're spending versus what your competitors say they're aiming to spend this year and going forward. So you're spending quite considerably less, but you obviously portrayed a pretty good picture of how your network is developing. I'm just trying to match those two issues. Is there a strategic disadvantage by not spending even more? Or do you think there are certain efficiencies that are coming in that are better than the competitors, where you can sort of match their deployment essentially for almost half the price? That's the first question. And the second question one just on the equity free cash flow guidance, just trying to break it down and if you could help me with my sort of understanding on it. You said the underlying improvements of around about $280 million, I think. And then there's obviously FX, which knocks off $150 million of that. So I think my understanding is that it's roughly about $130 million underlying increase. Your corporate costs, you're probably - you're claiming to be able to cut back maybe around about $90 million or so on corporate costs. So if I understand it correctly, that suggests about a $40 million increase in the underlying operations. So you've obviously been talking a lot about growth and the sort of cost focus and the cost initiatives. It just seems a relatively small amount. I'm just trying to get an understanding of that, please.

Ursula Burns

Management

Let's start with Vasyl first.

Vasyl Latsanych

Management

Yeah, I'll start with the Russian CapEx. I understand that the question is very specific. It's difficult to answer that specific question with specific numbers, because the carriers in Russian and I have - as you know, I have quite good knowledge of two of them already, are very different. And you cannot really compare head-to-head the different carriers and their spends specifically on CapEx and say that somebody spends more or somebody spends less on certain items. I may only say that we have quadrupled the launch of the new buildings of the fixed-line network in 2018. And we have hit the record high construction of the base stations in 2018 on the radio network. And all of that has cost us less than the ongoing spends of our competitors into their network. And then you draw the conclusions, whether that's efficiency, whether that's a better planning. Or in general, Beeline is a much leaner and much swifter animal compared to the other carriers. And I could assume that there are more inefficiencies built in those bigger businesses having proliferation of different partnerships, equities that they have around that they have to fund versus Beeline, who is very single - not really single, but very narrowly focused on developing network, fixed-network and digital products. Others, they may have different games and different toys.

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

I think I can add a little bit. I think it's fair to say that when it comes to the CapEx side, we've seen over time that while Beeline is the biggest company in the group, they also do derive advantages within procurement from being part of a group that has operations in multiple countries. And I think we have a very well-functioning procurement around how we buy network equipment and these kinds of CapEx-related components.

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Coming to the equity free cash flow bridge. Of course, if you - what we're trying to do here is to actually simplify the bridge from year-to-year. And as a result of that, it's a lot of bucketing going on to that level. And as a result of that, what is really driving the element is the CapEx and the sort of the one-off in the severance element. When it comes to the $280 million and the composition of that, it's much more complex that you're trying to say that it's just a headquarter and then it's the rest. Because like - just give you an example, we expect to pay licenses in Pakistan. In that license fee arrangement, it's a tax payment in addition. And as a result of that, that tax is not a part of the license payments, but it's going up as a negative effect on that. So it's just a lot of elements going to this. I think the biggest and the most important element I've got to say to this is really to say that as a result of our businesses is growing, costs will grow. And that means that the net effect, of course, we'll have a challenge. And as we also say on the slide on that bridge, most on the cost intensity, we see that most of that is coming into the late, because some of these activities that we're running on cost intensity is going to be sort of back flipped and basically going to take is more structural element that's going to take longer-lead items. So just to say that you take out the corporate costs and then the rest is, it's - yeah, it's a bit skewed, because it's more into that bucketing than that one. So the improvement is actually much better. But then you have the withholding tax in Pakistan coming on top, because we expect dividend to come in, and then you have the license tax payment on top of that and counter to that, you have the interest. So it's just a - so I'm simplifying it like that. It wouldn't be this, but the net effect is, of course, the way you put it, is right.

Ursula Burns

Management

Yeah, we'll take a question from the phone or online.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Cesar Tiron from Bank of America. Please ask a question.

Cesar Tiron

Analyst

Yes. Thank you so much for the call and the opportunity to ask for the questions. I have three questions, please. On the CapEx, I think you said you didn't provide guidance, but was it just for Russia? I mean, can you provide some ballpark figure at least a percentage of sales for the group? And then second, is your guidance of low- to mid-single-digit EBITDA growth based on 2018 reported numbers? Or is it based on adjusted numbers that would exclude exceptional items even for 2018? And then finally, on the - can you please give some details on the severance costs and give us some indication if you expect such costs to recur again in 2019 as you probably keep on now reducing the headcount at the H2?

Ursula Burns

Management

Trond, do you want to take them all?

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Yeah, I got the first and the second - and no, third. I'm not sure if I caught the second one. We'll find out. The - on the first one. On the CapEx, as I said, it's slightly higher. And that means short of a percentage CapEx to sales, I guess. It's going to be sort of slightly higher than from previous years in dollar terms. And that is really the angle - yes, a percentage - short of a percentage. On the severance - on the last question, on the severance. What we've done is we have done what we need to do to get to the 2020 rate. That does not mean, of course, that everything is going to be static going forward. But to achieve the guidance that we've given you on the 2020 rate, we have done what we need to do. And I didn't catch the second, actually.

Ursula Burns

Management

I neither, so, Cesar...

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Was it the - with the growth coming from our revised number or from the original number of the growth this year?

Cesar Tiron

Analyst

Yeah, this year number. The basis for...

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Not revised, reported?

Cesar Tiron

Analyst

Basically, what I mean on the guidance, a low- to mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, is it based on the reported EBITDA? Or is it based on an EBITDA that would exclude the exceptional items, which have been impacted on 2018?

Vasyl Latsanych

Management

IFRS.

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Well, it's - well, it's not IFRS include - IFRS is not included in that growth.

Cesar Tiron

Analyst

Okay. Got it.

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

So it's based on the reported number for 2018 and that is what we're guiding on. We're not including IFRS 16 numbers in there.

Cesar Tiron

Analyst

Okay. Thank you so much. Very helpful.

Operator

Operator

Roman?

Roman Arbuzov

Analyst

It's Roman Arbuzov. Thank you. So two questions, please. One is on free cash flow. So can you just remind us, please? What would you expect for spectrum spend over the medium term just as a rough annual figure? You used to talk about $200 million, I was wondering if this is still a good estimate? And then secondly, just on the minority leakage, I know you guide without minority leakage on the equity free cash flow. But is it possible to give us just a rough, a very rough sense of what is a normalized minority leakage if you were able to upstream your cash fully from all of your subsidiaries? And obviously, this will change depending on how the GTH offer goes. But maybe you can tell us, within the minority leakage, how much would that change if the GTH offer were to go through, just on a rough level. And then I just wanted to double check that the 1 percentage point reduction in the cost intensity that you were talking about that this is on top of the headquarter cost reduction? And then the second question was just on Bangladesh. I think the way, Kjell, you've explained the CapEx development in 2018, I think it sounded like you basically set a CapEx number for the year, and then kind of the only thing that you have the flexibility to change and play with is kind of the quarterly developments. Do you front load it? Do you back load it? But then at the same time, I was just thinking, is this a good approach? And generally, how rigid are you with your CapEx budgets, because Bangladesh has suffered from underinvestment over the years? So does it actually pay to be so rigid? And would it not be better to overspend massively in one year and maybe double your CapEx in one year, then reap the benefits for many years to come. Because I think the way you've explained it, it sounded basically quite rigid, I thought. And compared to Vasyl, I think Vasyl sounded like....

Ursula Burns

Management

Can we - let's answer some of the questions because we're not going to get to - we're not going to remember the first one.

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

No, I didn't speaking right?

Ursula Burns

Management

So why don't we start with Trond and then Kjell, you can do the CapEx question.

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

On the cost intensity part, the 1% challenge is, of course, to the OpCos. So as we said, it won't be linear, so don't expect that. Because it is a program started in 2018, we are rolling it forward. Of course, we are going to see effects during the course away, but it's not going to be linear in that sense. Going to the leakage part, beyond 57% of GTH, of course, there is the most significant leakage element. And as a result of that, I don't have the numbers in my head, clearly. We do the analysis often, but I don't have that clear in my head. You just have to go through the ownership structure, and we can help you.

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

Yeah. On CapEx, we - when we plan for the next years, we set up a yardstick and for - of course, for all the companies. And we do an earlier release so that people can plan their network rollout. And now since we are in very different geographies, you take Bangladesh and Russia, as examples, there are - there is one very big difference or many differences, but one that is very big. It is that in Russia, you have a really hard winter. You don't have that in Bangladesh. And the management team in Bangladesh is often quite keen to rollout a network early in the country - early in the year, because they have a certain amount of money available. We do have a review internally that we do every year in May. So it's not like we set a number sometime at the end of the year, and then we don't look at it again before we come to the end. So we do make some adjustments here and there as we move along.

Ursula Burns

Management

I want to just emphasize something. You said the word rigid a couple of times. And it's anything but that. It is literally not rigid. We operate this business, as I said, actively, including how we spend CapEx. We clearly don't allow changes that are massive month-to-month that those wouldn't make it possible for the operating companies to plan well, but we are not rigid.

Roman Arbuzov

Analyst

And spectrum spend?

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Oh, sorry. The spectrum spend, yes, we have earlier said that $200 million, and I - the way the world is going and lot of the countries that we're in is looking at this as a funding opportunity. I do think that average is likely to come up. We haven't really made an estimate, the only one coming up this year is Pakistan. And we don't know the pricing on that. But of course, we are in discussions with the government. But other than that, that's the only one this year. So yeah - no, but likely higher than the $200 million, we haven't made in U.S. but...

Roman Arbuzov

Analyst

Can I squeeze one more and a very quick one? On digital services, [Texa] [ph] has recently announced that they are prepared to wholesale their digital services on a white label basis. Is this something that is of interest to VEON? Given that you're scaling back somewhat in terms of the dedicated resource, I would say, to digital services, is this a better model, do you think?

Ursula Burns

Management

I think country-by-country, we'll have to determine. And I can't - I would say that we would not eliminate that option on a country-by-country basis. It depends on how good the services and how open the market is. But we're definitely not opposed to it.

Roman Arbuzov

Analyst

Okay. Can I just continue on more on the points raised just previously on Bangladesh? As you were going through all the different countries, I was struck by the significant improvements you made in Russia, Ukraine, Algeria and so forth. Pakistan continues to do very well. The one that seemed to be - or you seem to do less work is Bangladesh. And that it seems to me it could be a huge opportunity considering that kind of the secular growth in that country you're seeing now, and in my mind at least will continue for some time. Can you just maybe expand there on what you see is the potential in this country in the competitive landscape? And how you might be able to capture more of that opportunity?

Ursula Burns

Management

Trond?

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Yeah. Bangladesh, obviously, as you say, has a population growth, a quite significant population growth. The dynamics of the market are complicated in the sense that it has in a way a little bit been one player extracting most of the value and two others positioning themselves in that setup. We see Robi spending enormous amount of money on CapEx without really translating that into cash generation and EBITDA. And that holds - that pulls the market a bit down, the very aggressive approach. Going forward, I think we have some reason to be optimistic in the sense that we have the S&P regulation that will be helpful for us in our efforts to come back to growth. I think it's a quite strong performance that the management team there has been able to come back to black numbers instead of red. But I don't want to create too high expectations in the short-term. We don't know exactly how the S&P is going to play out. And I'm not sure if there are going to be delays in the implementation or could there be things that are not really core systems. So I'm kind of tilting towards a more positive stance on Bangladesh, but I don't want to oversell at this stage.

Ursula Burns

Management

Well said.

Alexander Vassiouk

Analyst

Alexander Vassiouk from Prosperity. Just on the - on debt, do you plan any further gross debt reduction this year, because you had almost $2 billion of cash balance at the end of 2018? And also, related to that is how would, technically, the transition to IFRS 16 change your leverage targets, because you would immediately have $2 billion of extra debt by capitalizing your operating lease costs?

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Well, when it comes to the cash element, I think that the cash element has come down through the years. So the cash amount that we had out in the businesses last year is actually lower this year than it was the year before. And we're continuously working on up-streaming those cash elements as we can. And of course, that is helping us to actually do the debt repayment when they come due. But that's a normal recurring element. So there's no clear ambitions relative to improving it more, but it's a constant element on the improvement going on, on that sense. Coming to leverage, we do see IFRS 16 as a pure accounting element. So we are going to look at our gearing ratio on 2.0 prior to the adjustments of the IFRS 16, because even though IFRS 16 as an accountant is interesting. But it doesn't help in understanding the cash flow evolvement and the cash flow circulation because our - most of our payment element in VEON is actually fairly equal to the EBITDA.

Alexander Vassiouk

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And also one follow-up question. You have engaged in some discussions to buy back some of your more expensive debt or bonds. Can you provide any comment on how that process is going?

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Well, we did make an offer before Christmas. That closed before Christmas. And the offer were made and we repaid $1.3 billion out of the four bonds that we tried to buy back.

Alexander Vassiouk

Analyst

So that's already in your...

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

That's already in the numbers as of December 31.

Alexander Vassiouk

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Stella Cridge

Management

Hi, there. And a couple of follow-up questions from me, the first is, I noticed in your presentation in terms of strategic objectives, you highlighted end market consolidation and further simplifying group structure. I was just wondering what you had in mind when you included those 2 points. I have one other question which I might follow up with that after.

Ursula Burns

Management

So why don't I start quickly, and then Kjell can take over. End market consolidation and this working on the structure, GTH is one of these areas that it's pretty obvious. We have lots of partnerships, minority shareholders, and partnership opportunities that we will pursue market-by-market. You heard of some of it in Russia, but in Pakistan as well and markets around us to continue to be active and find places for growth. So, there's nothing really specific that I want to bring out except for that we are actively looking and being very broad.

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

Yeah, I think what you should expect going forward is that we may, if we see the right opportunities, do some kind of bolt-on transactions. We do have an ambition with another FMC. If we see interesting opportunities, we may move on that. They are not mega transactions, but they can be very interesting in order to strengthen our business. And those opportunities can come in - and actually, in a couple of different countries. Time will show. Yeah, I think I'll have to leave it at that.

Ursula Burns

Management

Yeah. And it's all we can say. I mean, we used to be a telco company only. Now, we're a telco company largely and have opened up a significant amount of appetite for other ways to engage the customers that we have and to use the services that we have. So you'll see kind of swirl around those areas and that's where we want to keep active. Hopefully, by saying it, we'll have people come to us and have propositions. So that will be good, too.

Stella Cridge

Management

Okay, super.

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

But I think you said, you also asked about the structure, I can say a word on that also.

Stella Cridge

Management

Yeah, please.

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

What I tried to bring on the table when we talked about digital is that we are now working with a much more decentralized model. We have a strong - we have strong functions centrally within the compliance, controls and the areas where we need to be really strong, we will have a lighter touch in our commercial approach. So we would be relying more on the ingenuity and the creativity and the efforts of the local OpCos. And I see that that already is creating much more enthusiasm and motivation. So as I firmly believe that that move is right, so that's part of the structural change we're doing.

Ursula Burns

Management

I think if you pay attention to, which you did, on Vasyl's presentation, it was rooted in this excitement, and this local market understanding and potential for growth. And we're trying to have that happen everywhere. The approach before was obviously central, central to Amsterdam. And it just didn't yield what we needed it to yield.

Stella Cridge

Management

Okay, super. Thanks. And…

Ursula Burns

Management

Last question from you.

Stella Cridge

Management

I'm on the debt structure. So looking at the debt maturity profile, we obviously have approximately $1 billion due next couple of years, then a little bit of a peak in 2021. Do you think that you'll be in the bond markets in 2019 perhaps trying to extend this debt profile?

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

There are no plans as of now, so we'll tell the market when we're ready to.

Stella Cridge

Management

Okay. Thanks.

Ursula Burns

Management

Last question, I think, we done? We're done with questions. So thank you for coming. Okay, I'll let you have one more. We'll take one more, and then thank you for coming.

Ivan Mazalov

Analyst

Ivan Mazalov, Prosperity Capital Management. A very quick one, if you look at your equity - or free cash flow to equity, all this projection of $800 million, $1 billion last year, and the level of dividends there, I guess it would be $500 million for the last 12 months from March. How do you expect this gap to be bridging or is it bridging? And also if you can remind of how your dividend policy connects with this?

Ursula Burns

Management

Well, we'll start with the bridging.

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

No, I think that as a clear target, I do think that there are two elements going to this. The bridge you see from 2018 to 2019, and you look at the operational improvements relative to the FX effects, it's actually improving more than the FX effects, which has not been the case for quite some time. And that is really as a result of the initiatives going forward. These are, of course, going to be filled in for 2020, 2021. And as a result of that, we see that improvements going on. So, of course, the operational improvement is a part of the ambition going forward. And that is also supporting the dividend policy as such.

Ursula Burns

Management

So basically, we generate revenue, we spend money. We want to generate more money than the ratio that actually improve. We want to grow faster than we spend. So that's one. That's this cost intensity. Second, we want to make sure that we can upstream as much as we can in what we hedge ourselves and control the gaps that we have in currency or FX exposure. And if you look at - and obviously, we want to continue to operate the business well in this really intense way and grow. So if you look at that and you look at the history that we've had over time, what we're looking forward to in 2019, 2020 and 2021, we're pretty confident that we can actually meet the policy that we have on - from a different perspective. So it's not much more to kind of really think about. We'll manage it every year, every month to make sure that we can generate enough cash to pay the dividend and spend a little less to pay the dividends. With that, I'd like to thank everyone for coming or calling and for asking questions. And we'll see you hopefully in Investor Day in the summer. Thank you.

Kjell Morten Johnsen

Management

Thank you.

Trond Odegard Westlie

Management

Thank you.