Joseph Mara
Analyst · TD Cowen
Good morning Rich, this is Joe. I'll take that question. So thanks for the question. So in terms of the guidance update and the increase, I would say, on a full year basis, you're right, there's kind of two key drivers. So one, the outperformance in the first quarter at a company level, whether you look at guidance or consensus, it's kind of in that $4 million to $5 million range. We've included that in our full year guidance update to let that flow through. And then the second piece is the remainder of that increase is really the incremental NexoBrid BARDA revenue, which we expect to begin in H2 and call it, we said about $5 million to $6 million. So, if you kind of put that together, just quickly on the assumptions to the second part of your question, starting with Burn Care, obviously, a very strong first quarter across the board for Burn Care. It's actually our highest quarter since 2024 and a particularly strong Epicel quarter. So, I feel like we're really executing well on the Burn Care side. So, to your question, we've assumed, call it, about $2 million of outperformance from Q1 in our full year outlook on Burn Care and then that remainder, call it, about $6 million on the BARDA side. So up 8% on a full year basis on the Burn Care side. So if you kind of think about the guidance going forward, obviously, there's some moving pieces, but we're sticking with our framework that's worked quite well on the Burn Care side over the last few quarters and our run rate framework, which has been, call it, $9 million to $10 million on a quarterly basis, and then we're adding in the second half quarter. So, to be clear on kind of just how to think about that and how to model it, it's really, call it, $9 million in the second quarter and it steps up to $12 million in both Q3 and Q4 with that incremental, call it, $3 million of BARDA revenue flowing through. So, that gets you to call it, $45 million on a full year basis on Burn Care. So again, we're not changing our assumptions in the back half of the year in terms of the core business. We're sticking with that run rate. But obviously, great performance in the first quarter and the incremental BARDA revenue has been included. On the MACI side, so a very strong first quarter, as we talked about, our first quarter with our expanded sales force, we feel like the team executed extremely well there, a much higher Q1 growth rate than we've seen in recent years. And importantly, we pointed to another quarter of both double-digit biopsy and implant growth in the first quarter. I also say we've gotten off to a strong start in Q2 and April as well. So, I feel very good about kind of the MACI execution, particularly with that larger sales force. So, from a full year perspective, again, call it about a $2 million beat in the first quarter on MACI. We've included that on a full year basis. You kind of add that updated $285 million on MACI. You're right around $330 million or so at the midpoint, which also is the midpoint of our guidance is also 20% company growth. So that's important and good to see. In terms of the MACI assumptions for the remainder of the year, I think importantly, we're not changing any assumptions or our approach for whether it's the second quarter or the back half of the year in Q3 and Q4. So, we're keeping the same framework and approach we used in Q1. I'd say we're going to remain very prudent on the guidance. We've done that on the Burn Care side with the run rate framework. We're going to continue to do that with MACI going forward. So, the assumptions for MACI in total are essentially keeping that high teens growth for both Q2 as well as the back half. And I think importantly, that also implies kind of similar year-over-year dollar revenue growth assumptions, which, again, we feel like is a balanced starting point and consistent to how we started the year. So, it implies about $63 million in the second quarter. That's about 18% growth at the midpoint of our guide, and it's pretty similar for the remaining two quarters. And so again, I would just say from a second half outlook perspective, we definitely do not want to assume an acceleration in growth in the second half in MACI. So, this is consistent to what we talked about last quarter. So, we think this positions us really well. And to that point, whether it's kind of the sales force contribution, continue to ramp up in Arthro, I would just say broadly, if we maintain the recent trends we're seeing. If we continue to execute well, we think this sets us up for potential outperformance both in the second quarter, but also on a full year basis. So, for MACI in particular, the pieces are in place with a very strong pool of biopsies. We had a particularly strong Q4 that we think will play out during the year from a biopsy growth perspective. Leading indicators remain strong. And again, we have the larger sales force, which we think can be impactful. So, we're going to remain prudent on both franchises, but certainly, the goal internally is to outperform that. But again, we're not going to change the approach on the guidance, and we'd rather just stay prudent there.