Joe Mara
Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is now open.
Yes, so good morning, Josh. Thanks for the question. So, I would say a couple of things on kind of increasing our midterm targets. So, if you think about 2024, we started the year with a guidance on gross margin of 70%, and we said from a call it a midterm perspective, mid to long-term, we can kind of get to that 70% plus range. That was the kind of thinking and the midterm assumption a year ago. So, obviously as we progressed throughout the year, we significantly kind of overperformed, outperformed our initial expectation, got up all the way to 73% on a full-year basis. So, we're kind of close to that kind of mid 70% range exiting last year, and we think we can improve a little bit on it this year. So, I think that is certainly part of kind of the reasoning in terms of why we wanted to update that. Start the year this year, that felt like the right time, thinking about from a gross margin perspective. So, if you think about that high 70s, to your point, we were 78% in the fourth quarter, which is an important data point as we kind of think about where this can be in a few years at scale. And it's essentially around a point a year from a gross margin perspective. I think I don't really want to get too far into 2026, et cetera, right now because the targets are by the end of the decade, but there will be - we will have to kind of incorporate this building into the gross margin, et cetera, in the next couple of years. So, I think it’s, we had quite a bit of expansion last year. We assume it's going to go up this year. What exactly that shape looks like from now to 2029, it could vary a little bit as we include the building in 2026 for example, but we think kind of that one point a year and particularly given, if we can maintain that strong top line, is the right assumption on the gross margin side. And then just briefly, it's kind of a similar story on the adjusted EBITDA side, but we kind of started at 20% last year. We ended at 23% on a full-year basis. And again, if you look at the fourth quarter, it's a great marker where we got the 40% adjusted EBITDA margin. So, as we think about that margin by the end of the decade, as we think about kind of the revenue growth and the opportunity, thinking about MACI Arthro, et cetera, we think it's reasonable to assume call it around three points a year of expansion over the next few years. So, that's kind of how we're thinking about the midterm targets and why we wanted to make the update to start the year.