VBVBF (VBVBF) Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to today's earnings call of Verbio SE following the publication of the full year figures 2025, 2026. CEO Claus Sauter, and CFO Olaf Troeber will speak in a moment and guide you through the presentation and the numbers. [Operator Instructions] We are looking forward to the presentation. And with that, I hand over to you, Mr. Sauter.

Thank you very much. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Today, Olaf and I will take you through the results of the financial year 2025/2026 and our outlook for the new financial year 2026/2027. The financial year development or developed more positively than we had originally anticipated. Market conditions improved over the course of the year, while the regulatory environment moved in the right direction. At Verbio, we continued to improve our operations and moved important projects forward. The past year also highlighted another development. After many years of political hesitation, biomass is increasingly being recognized as part of the solution for energy security, affordable energy supply, and defossilization. I will come back to this topic later. Let me now start with a brief overview of the financial year before handing over to Olaf for our fourth quarter performance. Production reached new record levels with slight growth in biodiesel and bioethanol production and a significant increase in biomethane output. This was supported by the continued ramp-up in Nevada and improved utilization across our production facilities. Our EBITDA increased to EUR 193.9 million. The improvement was primarily driven by the normalization of the greenhouse gas quota market, improved bioethanol market spreads, and higher utilization rates in North America. In addition, the result benefited from the reversal of impairments on greenhouse gas quota inventories and the absence of the negative one-off effects we had recorded in 2024/2025. This earnings recovery translated into a strong cash generation. Operating cash flow increased to EUR 164.6 million, and free cash flow reached EUR 78 million despite continued investments in our specialty chemicals project in Bitterfeld and the South Bend site in Indiana. As a result, net debt declined substantially to EUR 91.5 million, and our balance sheet strengthened further with the equity ratio increasing to 59.7%. Importantly, the improvement in profitability also translated into returns with a ROCE recovering to around 12%. Let me now look at one of the key drivers behind this improvement in profitability. The slide shows the development of our gross margin per tonne of biodiesel and bioethanol sold. The reference spread reflects the difference between biofuel prices and feedstock prices and represents the value available to all market participants. As you can see in the development of the reference spread, market conditions improved compared to the previous year. At the same time, we significantly expanded the premium we generate above benchmark market spreads. This additional value creation reflects the strength of our integrated biorefinery model. We generate value from co-products, improve our production processes, and create additional value through our CO2 savings. You can also see this in our CO2 handprint. It increased to a record of 4.7 million tonnes, driven by higher production volumes and improved CO2 efficiency. Let me briefly explain the progression in quarterly EBITDA during the year. As shown on this slide, EBITDA increased steadily from EUR 15.4 million in the first quarter to EUR 88.2 million in the fourth quarter. A key factor behind this development was the implementation of the RED III in Germany. The elimination of double counting from January 2026 removed a significant market distortion and contributed to a more level playing field in the greenhouse gas quota market. As a result, market conditions improved progressively over the course of the year, supporting earnings across our biofuels activities. In addition, third quarter EBITDA benefited from seasonal quota sales, while fourth quarter earnings were supported by the reversal of the impairment on greenhouse gas quota inventories. Looking ahead, the regulatory framework is expected to strengthen the market integrity further. From 2027 onwards, market participants will no longer be able to rely on private certification claims alone. Let me now turn over to Olaf. He will take you through our fourth quarter performance, the strongest quarter of the financial year. Olaf, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Claus, and good afternoon, everyone. Before moving into the individual segments and our quarter-over-quarter discussion, let me briefly put the fourth quarter into perspective. Group EBITDA increased to EUR 88 million in the fourth quarter compared with a loss of EUR 8 million in the prior year quarter. As shown on this slide, the Bioethanol/Biomethane segment was the main driver behind this improvement, increasing EBITDA from a loss of EUR 26 million in Q4 '24, '25 to a profit of EUR 55.0 million in Q4 '25, '26. Now compared with the prior year, bioethanol market spreads improved in both Europe and North America. The greenhouse gas quota market also recovered from market distortions in the previous year. And in addition, our North American operations benefited from higher utilization rates. It should be noted that the year-on-year comparison was also supported by the reversal of the impairment on greenhouse gas quota inventories recorded in the prior year as well as by the absence of several negative effects that weighted on Q4 '24, '25. Biodiesel also contributed positively. However, the Bioethanol/Biomethane segment was clearly the main driver of the improvement at group level. With that, let me now turn to the quarter-over-quarter performance of the individual segments, starting with biodiesel. Production volumes increased from 145,000 tonnes in the third quarter to 172,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter. In Europe, production reached another record level, confirming the strong operational performance of the segment. Production in Canada also increased compared with the previous quarter following the planned winter shutdown. Our revenues rose significantly to EUR 280 million from EUR 202 million (sic) [ EUR 202.7 million ] in the third quarter. This was driven by higher sales volumes and higher biodiesel selling prices. In Europe, demand benefited from the implementation of the RED III, which increased demand for physical biodiesel. At the same time, low water levels on the Rhine created logistical challenges for some market participants. We, as Verbio, on the other hand, were able to continue serving our customers through our established rail and truck deliveries. Despite weaker benchmark spreads in Europe, which we will look at in a minute, our gross margin improved significantly compared to the previous quarter. Higher biodiesel prices supported profitability, thanks to our beneficial feedstock sourcing. In North America, higher utilization rates, increased sales volumes, and improved efficiency provided additional support. As a result, EBITDA increased to EUR 32 million (sic) [ EUR 32.8 million ] from EUR 18 million (sic) [ EUR 18.5 million ] in the previous quarter. Now for some market context, let's now take a look at the reference charts. These charts show the development of the biodiesel spreads, which are defined as the difference between biodiesel prices and rapeseed oil prices. As always, they do not reflect our specific sourcing strategy, but provide a useful indication of broader market developments. Looking specifically at the fourth quarter, benchmark market spreads deteriorated significantly. And as you can see from the dark green line on the left of the chart, turned slightly negative towards the end of the financial year. The chart on the right helps explain this development. Both biodiesel and rapeseed oil prices increased during the quarter. However, rapeseed oil prices rose much more strongly than biodiesel prices, putting significant pressure on the benchmark market spreads. The increase in rapeseed oil prices was primarily driven by stronger vegetable oil markets and improved market demand expectations for renewable fuels. A key driver of these improvement expectations was the EPA's final Renewable Fuel Standard decision in March this year, which provided greater regulatory certainty and supported market confidence in future renewable fuel demand. Biodiesel prices also moved higher, supported by the ongoing recovery of greenhouse gas quota markets and stronger demand following the implementation of RED III. However, while RED III is improving demand fundamentals, additional biodiesel volumes remain constrained by the blending wall. In addition, elevated diesel prices associated with the conflict with Iran weighed on overall diesel demand, further limiting the ability of biodiesel prices to keep pace with rising feedstock costs. Despite the weaker benchmark environment, we achieved a significantly stronger result than implied by the reference market spreads. This was supported by our favorable feedstock sourcing, higher greenhouse gas quota prices, and additional value creation through our integrated biorefinery model. Now let's move on to the Bioethanol/Biomethane segment. Biomethane production reached another record level of more than 370 gigawatt-hours, supported by the continued ramp-up of our Nevada facility. Bioethanol production also increased. The main driver was higher output in North America, while production in Europe recovered following the temporary biological disruptions in the fermentation process that affected the previous quarter. Our revenue increased to EUR 243 million (sic) [ EUR 243.5 million ] from EUR 236 million in the third quarter. Higher bioethanol prices as well as increased sales volumes supported revenue growth. Now while greenhouse gas quota prices also increased further, revenues from the greenhouse gas quota business in Europe were below the level of the seasonally strong third quarter. Gross margin improved compared with the previous quarter. Large market spreads... [Technical Difficulty]

Sorry Olaf. You are not to be heard from my perspective. So ladies and gentlemen, unfortunately, Mr. Troeber is not to be heard in the moment. We try to reconnect. So please stay tuned and wait for a few seconds, please. So ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience. Please stay tuned. We try to reconnect to Mr. Troeber. Please wait for a few more moments. Thank you very much, and please excuse this issue. Mr. Troeber, we can see and hear you again. Welcome back. And so we go...

Sorry for the inconvenience caused. We had a bit of a technical issue, but it's solved. Now you can see the presentation.

We still see the presentation and both of you back in the meeting room. Please go on.

So, yes, I got interrupted on the Bioethanol/Biomethane segment slide. Coming back here to the gross margin. The gross margin improved compared with the previous quarter. Larger market spreads in both Europe and North America, together with higher utilization rates in North America and India supported overall profitability. As mentioned earlier, the gross margin benefited from the reversal of the impairment on greenhouse gas quota inventories recorded in the previous year, which contributed approximately EUR 19 million in the fourth quarter. As a result, EBITDA increased from EUR 34 million in the third quarter to EUR 55 million in the fourth quarter. Now excluding this effect, the segment still delivered a slight operational improvement compared with the third quarter. Now for some market context, let's take a look at the reference charts, starting off with the greenhouse gas quota. As you can see on the chart, the recovery in quota prices continued throughout the fourth quarter. One of the key drivers was the implementation of RED III. The improved overall confidence in the market and strengthened expectations of a tighter supply-demand balance going forward. Now most purchasing of the '25 compliance had already taken place in the third quarter of our financial year. However, we started to see the first demand for '26 quotas during the fourth quarter. Towards the end of our financial year, low water levels on the Rhine provided additional support, as mentioned before, logistics became more challenging and more expensive, making physical compliance more difficult for some market participants. Let's take a look at the European bioethanol market. As you can see from the dark green line on the chart on the left, market spreads improved significantly during the fourth quarter before moderating towards the end of the financial year. The main reason was higher ethanol prices, while wheat prices remained relatively stable for most of the period. Demand for ethanol remains strong and supply was tight. Europe continued to rely on imports, but import availability remained limited. Tensions in the Middle East also pushed freight costs higher, making imports into Europe more expensive and supporting domestic ethanol prices. Now towards the end of the financial year, ethanol prices softened again. While supply remained tight, spot prices were pressured by increased selling activity before July 1 when stricter greenhouse gas saving requirements came into effect. At the same time, wheat prices moved somewhat higher, concerns about exports from the Black Sea region and weather conditions continued to support grain prices. As a result, market spreads moderated from their peak levels, but remained well above prior year levels. Let's now move to North America. As you can see from the dark green line on the chart on the left, market spreads improved significantly during the fourth quarter and remained well above prior year levels. This was mainly driven by higher ethanol prices, while corn prices remained broadly stable. Ethanol continued to benefit from its competitiveness versus gasoline and from attractive blending economics. The continued rollout of E15, the start of the driving season, and the strong export demand all provided additional support during the quarter. Overall, market conditions remained highly supportive and contributed to the strong performance of our North American bioethanol business. With that, let me turn to our outlook for the new financial year. Let me briefly discuss our outlook for the financial year '26, '27. We expect group EBITDA to increase to between EUR 210 million and EUR 250 million, driven by the Bioethanol and Biomethane segment. In North America, production volumes should increase, particularly from our Nevada facility. Biomethane production should also continue to grow. We also see higher contribution from the greenhouse gas quota business. Our planning assumes that the year-end greenhouse gas inventories at a group level will be around 5% lower than at the beginning of the financial year. Most purchasing of the '26 compliance year should take place during financial year '26, '27. As in previous years, a significant share of the related result should be recognized in the third quarter. At the same time, we plan to market most of our surplus volumes in the '27 compliance year. This means that a large part of the associated earnings potential should be realized in financial year '27, '28 and not the current financial year. There is still uncertainty regarding the overall amount of surplus quotas from previous years that may return to the market. Our price assumptions are broadly in line with current market expectations. The main question is how much of these volumes will ultimately become available. We continue to monitor the market closely and remain flexible in how and when we market our quotas. We work closely with our customers and can adjust volumes and timing as the market conditions evolve. In the Biodiesel segment, we assume a somewhat lower contribution than in financial year '25, '26. Our planning is based on market spreads below the levels seen in the past financial year and reflects the remaining uncertainty around market developments and the effectiveness of the anti-fraud measures. Investment spending is also expected to decline together with higher earnings. This should support strong cash generation and a further reduction in net debt. Now let me briefly explain why we will continue to invest during financial year '26/'27. Following several years of elevated investment activity, we expect capital expenditure to decline further. We will nevertheless continue to invest in a number of important projects. One focus is South Bend, where we are gradually adding biogas production to the existing ethanol facility. Another focus is the ramp-up of our ethenolysis facility in Bitterfeld, Germany and Gödöllo, Hungary. This technology allows us to produce renewable specialty chemicals from vegetable oils. Start-up is currently underway and the [ official inauguration ] is planned for early October, so in a couple of days. We will also continue to invest in improving our existing operations. Overall, we are moving from a major construction project to getting more out of the assets we already have. Now let me hand back to Claus for some final remarks.

So at this stage, Mr. Sauter, we can't -- yes, now your camera and microphone should be working. If you unmute yourself, you should be able to speak.

You hear me?

Yes.

Okay. There is something with the grid. Okay. So thank you, Olaf. Brilliant. Now let's have an outlook. And we prepared here 3 slides where we compare fossil fuels and biofuels. On the left side, you see bio-LNG and bio-LNG is significantly cheaper than diesel. The gray line is the development of the diesel prices since January 2026. And the green stable line. Remember, we are talking about affordability and price stability. That is bio-LNG. This is the price we and our competitors are providing bio-LNG as a transport fuel at our filling stations, and it is significantly cheaper than diesel. On the second slide, you have ethanol. Ethanol is competitive with gasoline. And here, we are talking about European ethanol prices, especially in the last few months. Ethanol is significantly cheaper than gasoline. So also here, we are competitive with fossil fuels. And if you look to the U.S., ethanol is by far the lowest liquid fuel in the world. Here, the difference between fossil gasoline and U.S. corn ethanol is even more significant. So the way biomass is fueled is changing. We mentioned it already. For many years, the discussion focused mainly on decarbonization or defossilization. Today, biomass is especially seen as a contributor to energy security, affordable energy, and industrial competitiveness. The economics shown on these slides are a good example. In a number of markets, renewable molecules provide a cost-effective alternative to fossil products. In some applications, they can even be cheaper in addition to reducing emissions. We can see this change in regulation but also in the growing number of applications for renewable molecules. Biomethane is one example. Interest is growing not only in transport, but also in industry and shipping. So despite ongoing economics and geopolitical uncertainties, we believe that the structural drivers supporting biomass and renewable molecules remain intact. We believe this creates opportunities for Verbio and supports the direction we have been following for many, many years. This is something we will talk about in more detail at our Capital Markets Day in a few weeks. And what is even more interesting is this last slide. Here, we compared RME, biodiesel, diesel, HVO, and bio-LNG. So we have 4 charts on this picture. The baseline, the cheapest way of fuel at the moment is bio-LNG. And you see over all the time, despite the global distortion in fossil fuels, we and our market, our competitors keep the price for bio-LNG stable. This is EUR per gigawatt-hour -- per gigajoule. And you see the huge difference between the other compliance option HVO. So we talk about prices for HVO between EUR 50 and EUR 60 per gigajoule, while bio-LNG is available at slightly above EUR 10 per gigajoule. So if the target is to decarbonize transport, bio-LNG, bio-CNG is by far the cheapest option. The second cheapest option is biodiesel, RME, and the most expensive is HVO. I think this slide should show how strong the competitive approach of Verbio with our product portfolio is in this market segment to decarbonize the transport sector. And I'm really happy that we are now back in the game with facts and figures and that at least the costs of decarbonizing transport are more in the focus of political deciders, and I think that is a good development. So saying that, I would like now to start the Q&A session. Please go ahead.

[Operator Instructions] So everybody is invited to post questions in the Q&A chat, and we will be happy to read them out. [Operator Instructions] And we already have an analyst with a raised hand [ Jorge Gonzales ]. You should be able to unmute yourself please switch on your microphone, and you should be able to ask your question. Mr. [ Gonzalez ], please.

Taking into account that we are very close to a Capital Markets Day, maybe I would like to focus on the spreads. I think it is interesting that you mentioned that you're expecting so how a weaker margin in biodiesel for the year. But having in mind that the Q4 theoretically, not for you specifically because of your own trading and your own bilateral contracts, you probably did better than the market. But I'm wondering how worse you are expecting '27 compared to '26 for biodiesel? Do you think that there is a little bit of seasonality explaining the weak margins in Q4 and then we should expect some pickup during the year? Or how is your view on the development of the margin, please? That would be my first question.

Thanks. As I outlined before, we take a little bit more conservative stance with respect to the biodiesel margins. So we are planning a little bit lower compared to last financial year. One of the reasons is actually that we expect later on in the financial year, stronger increase in rapeseed oil prices, which could add some pressure on the overall biodiesel margin. If you look at the first quarter, I mean, September is virtually over. The market margins developed a little bit better than we expected. So overall, yes, we are quite happy. The stance, as I said before, is a little bit more cautious. So maybe there is some room for EBITDA improvement.

And then my second question is on GHG for Germany. You know that it's always difficult to find reliable market sources for the prices. The last reference I see in your presentations are around EUR 500 per tonne. Can you confirm if the levels are still at these price levels? Or where are we at this point for the '27?

Well, yes, for the current financial year, the prices are still above the EUR 500. For the next calendar year, 2027, we are approximately at EUR 420, EUR 440, so in that range, and we also planned with yes, the market range you can observe right now.

Okay. Would you consider to anticipate some sales of the '24 quotas if the price go in the right direction? Or do you think it's too early to even consider this?

Well, it's not always about selling the quota. It's rather realizing the additional margin. Point is we can sell today and you transfer the quota in March next year. So the full profit you will achieve only in Q3 because you can only activate it to production costs right now. And then the additional margin to the selling price will then be actually you lock in when you transfer the quota itself.

Okay. And a quick follow-up on that one. So for your guidance, are you also considering prices in line with the numbers you have just mentioned?

Yes. Yes. Actually, we focus on market prices. Anything else would be speculation or guessing.

Thank you very much, Mr. [ Gonzalez ] for your questions and we move to Ms. Stuerzer. Ms. Stuerzer, you should be able to unmute yourself and place your question Ms. Stuerzer, please.

Can you hear me now? Okay. Perfect. So this is Manuela Stuerzer from Deutsche Bank. Several questions from my side. First one is maybe could you quantify the earnings sensitivity to the current very high current diesel prices and also explain how the price assumption is embedded in your guidance and how it compares with current spot prices?

Well, as I touched before, you cannot compare the current spot prices, which are well above the average margins you can observe during the last couple of years. So what we have done is simply we took the average spreads we achieved in the last financial year with respect to biodiesel and simply rolled them forward with, as I outlined before, with a slightly negative stance. So to be a little bit less aggressive, it's more prudent stance, in my opinion, even a more conservative stance with respect to the margin.

But maybe I can add here. You asked for the diesel price, the fossil diesel price. Right now, it looks like that there is a correlation between us and our share price with the development of the crude oil prices. There is no correlation even if it looks like it. So our feedstock is mainly rapeseed oil. And what I showed on the last slide is just sometimes investors ask how competitive you are compared to fossil fuels. Therefore, we prepared this slide that shows. But anyway, I think what is significant for the next year is not the development of the fossil diesel price, even if it's going down. The main driver of the business next year is that the quota, the compliance, the obligation is increasing from 12% to 17.5%. And everything what is related to palm is out. And if you compare that the double counting is away from 2025, then we are talking about nearly doubling the demand on molecules in 2027 compared with 2025. So the only uncertainty at the moment -- so there is a significant increase in demand. So the only uncertainty is that we don't know how much quota was frozen in 2024 because these frozen quotas will come back to the market. But even though if there are significant amounts coming back, the increase in quota, and I think that is, let's say, the contribution from the government that it said, okay, there was a lot of fraud, a lot of unjustified CO2 savings coming to the market in 2024, even in 2025. And therefore, to compensate this situation, the quota is increasing so significantly. So that -- these are the drivers, not the fossil diesel price. We have other feedstocks. Our business is driven by fulfilling the compliance issues. And these are the important things.

Okay. Then next question is on the guidance. So does the guidance incorporate also earnings contribution from the ethenolysis plant? And then I also have another question on LNG. So how do you expect and also calculate the LNG demand and volumes to develop over the next few years, particularly across heavy-duty transport and maritime applications.

Okay. So right now, we are starting up the ethenolysis. And these costs or contribution is reflected in our planning. But this is a completely new market segment. And it gives us additional optionality because as long as we have a healthy biodiesel market, we are able to sell our RME, rapeseed methyl ester traditionally to the fuel market. And this RME is the feedstock for the ethenolysis. So here, we are coming to the market with new molecules, and we have to develop the market. This will take some years. But we are entering here a completely new market segment where biomass is necessary. You cannot replace fossil carbon with electricity. That does not work. You need molecules. So that is our, let's say, mid- long-term strategy to step into the chemical industry, build up a strong position. And I can tell you that once our technology there is established, no more RME will be used as biodiesel. All these molecules will go to chemical applications. The second part of your question is the [ IAA ] was finished, I think it was last week. So we were there. The high diesel prices are right now driving the hauliers to search alternatives. And we had a lot of hauliers, big transporters meeting. And the companies who are selling LNG and CNG trucks are outsold, Iveco, Scania and Volvo, they are outsold. So what is the big contribution from the high diesel prices for us is that more and more hauliers are now looking for alternatives, and they are buying CNG and LNG trucks. So our expectation is that the amount of bio-LNG and 100% of the LNG and CNG, which is used in transport, 100% right now is bio, it's clear. It's the cheapest way of transport, and it is the cheapest way to decarbonize transport. So what we are expecting is a significant increase, more trucks, more demand, more hauliers fueling bio-LNG and bio-CNG. Right now, Verbio is now the biggest producer and trader of biomethane in Germany. We are also exporting molecules. So a long time, we were talking about that methane, biomethane is a multi-talent and has a lot of possibilities to help to decarbonize. But as long as biomass had a negative image, it was not enough supported by politicians. This has changed. So that is what we are expecting more and more demand for bio-LNG and bio-CNG and especially coming from the transport sector. That is really, really a good alternative for hauliers. And you saw on my slide on the last slide, we and also our competitors held the price stable despite all distortions in diesel, and it was a good business, I can tell you. Please continue.

And we move on to some questions out of our chat box. I'll read them out because we have participants on the phone. So last year, the initial EBITDA outlook moved from a high double-digit million figure to almost EUR 194 million. Could you walk us through the key assumptions behind the EUR 210 million to EUR 250 million range for the 2026/2027 guidance? What would need to happen to land at the lower versus the upper end?

So the key message is that the increase in group EBITDA is primarily volume-driven, supported by greenhouse gas earnings, while our margin assumptions, particularly in biodiesel remain prudent. The largest swing factor within the guidance remain the greenhouse gas quota business, while the volume growth is largely driven by factors within our control. Greenhouse gas quota pricing remains the most significant external uncertainty with the potential to impact the results rather to the higher end.

And maybe let me add something. Our business year goes from 1st of July until the end of June. The contracts for biofuels with the oil companies are yearly contracts, and these are yearly contracts. So right now, we can see clearly until the end of 2026. In the next weeks, the negotiations for the new contracts in 2027 are going to start. And as I said to the answer before, the only uncertainty is that we don't know how much CO2 savings oil companies have really on their books. But I also said that the demand for molecules in '27 are doubling compared with 2025. So that will be really interesting negotiations. Me personally, I don't see that the molecules are there, that the logistics is in place and everything. So we expect a strong position, but wait and see in 2 months, 3 months, we know more, then we have the contracts for 2027 in our books. But I think you also saw when I showed the development of our quarterly EBITDAs over the last business year that there was a continuous increase and only half of our business year was under the new RED III regime. Right now, we don't see big market distortions. Yes, fraud is still an issue, but the fact that double counting is away brings that down. HVO as a compliance product is super expensive. So let's see what's coming on, but I think there is some upside.

And there is a follow-up on that one. How much of your expected full year 2026/'27 quota volume is already contracted versus open? For the open 2027 volumes, does pricing reference the prompt 2026 vintage or the 2027 forward?

Well, we sold most of the 2026 quota. And going forward to 2027, we will sell at the market prices and the market prices, as I outlined before, somewhere between EUR 420, EUR 440 per tonne CO2.

Okay. And we move on to [ Mr. Brett Gibbs ], and he is asking, can you quantify the capability of Nevada to capture 45Z tax credits available to ethanol in the U.S.? Many producers have demonstrated the ability to get $0.10 or $0.20 per gallon or $38 to $76 per tonne. Is this included in your guidance?

Yes. Well, that is a very interesting point, 45Z, that's a new legislation in the U.S., reflecting the carbon intensity. And some U.S. producers announced already significant increase of their profitability regarding 45Z. Right now, we are -- we have not reflected any 45Z in our planning because our concept, biodiesel, bioethanol and biomethane or how the U.S. call it, renewable natural gas is completely new in the U.S. So just 4 weeks ago, we got the final rules how the 45Z is calculated. But if you take into account that the driver for the 45Z is corn yields and the amount of electricity and natural gas, what you are using to produce the ethanol. So with the ability to replace all the natural gas by biogas and replace the electricity with so-called RECs, renewable energy certificates, Verbio has the potential to go down to 0, which means up to $1 per gallon of ethanol. On the other side, we are losing then revenues for DDG, yes, for sure. But finally, the 45Z is absolutely in line with our strategy, and it is in line with our ability to go down further. I think that's our DNA for the German business. So right now, it's not reflecting 45Z, 45Z for us was expected or something like this, focus on carbon intensity. But we still need to work with the regulator to explain him what we are doing, where are the effects. So right now, the model is not fully reflecting the model Verbio has. We are working on that. But for the future, our clear target is that the 45Z will bring significant optionality to our P&L.

And we move on to [ Alex Kosak ]. He has a written question as well. How much hedging are you doing on biodiesel? Are you getting the tailwinds from the extremely high biodiesel prices right now? Or are you hedged out?

We are not disclosing information like that, sorry. We hedge if it is necessary and if it makes sense, and we don't hedge if our market expectation is different. But we are not disclosing our hedging strategy. Sorry.

That was short and pretty clear, and there might be a very short and clear answer. On the next one, [ Rene Rückert ] is asking, do you plan to change the financial year to the calendar year?

This is a good question. We have some discussions here. But yet, we didn't decide. The reason why we had 1st of July until the end of June was at a time when we were really, really exposed to agriculture feedstock and harvest is in summer. So that was the time when we changed it. Right now, we are not -- we don't have an exposure anymore or a significant exposure to these kind of things. As I said, right now, we are discussing it, but we didn't make a decision yet. But I think it's not really important for our call now. This is a more strategic decision, which will not impact our profitability.

Thank you very much. And we get back to one pretty early question concerning the guidance. Is any Bitterfeld EBITDA included in the EUR 210 million to EUR 250 million guidance range? And what production volume do you assume for the full year 2026/'27 against the 60,000 tonne capacity?

Yes. Well, I think I answered this question already. The ethenolysis in Bitterfeld is providing additional opportunities. If we see that we can there make higher margins on the chemicals, then we will do it. But it's more a strategic investment to move away energetic use of our molecule of our rapeseed methyl ester, bring it into new applications, surfactants, lubricants, base component to produce plastics. So it's a new technology. And once we really establish these molecules, as I said before, I'm sure no more rapeseed oil methyl ester is, no more will be used as biodiesel because these applications are more interesting and are more stable for the future, but we have to go there, and it will take years. So if our approach with ethenolysis and to go into chemicals will be not so successful, for the business year or we will not progress as we expected, it will have no impact on our guidance. It's additional optionality, and it is an investment for the future. Next question.

Yes. I'm just referring to one question from [ Mr. Burkins ]. Will investments in South Bend contribute to decrease the tax rate in the current year?

Well, that would be nice. But you cannot set off losses in one country with profits in another country. So -- and therefore, the tax rate here is quite high. So the clear answer is no.

So there was a question from [ Mr. Burkins ] beforehand, and that was what are the reasons for the high tax rate of more than 50%. What are your plans to bring that down?

Well, the tax rate was below 50%. I think it was 47% or 46% and to bring the tax rate down. Well, it's to get all the business on a global basis profitable. It's pretty easy.

So thank you very much. And due to the time, we come to the end of today's call. There are some questions, and we kindly ask to place these questions to the Investor Relations department. We copy some of them and forward them. So thank you very much for your participation in this call.

Sorry, I think we have the first question from [ Bernhard Heine ]. In comparing gasoline and ethanol prices on Slide 15, did you account for the lower energy density of ethanol compared to gasoline because the axes suggest otherwise. No, this is the real price. And yes, you are right. The energy content from ethanol is lower than from gasoline, but ethanol has octane number from 130. So what is really interesting for ethanol, especially on the lower yields is the high octane number. That is the difference at the filling station between the premium fuels and the normal fuels. It's the octane number. Super Plus has 98 and the racing applications, they have 100 of octane. So ethanol has an octane number of 130. So what you can replace there in the fossil fuel is other octane expensive octane components. So therefore, yes, the energy content is lower, but the quality is much higher. And especially on the lower blends up to E20, this is a real value from ethanol. Okay. But then I think...

Yes. Thank you. Very much referring to this pretty early question. Yes. So we come to the end of today's call. Thank you very much to you as the participant, and thank you for the presentation and taking the time to answer the questions. And for some final remarks, I'm happy to hand back to you, Mr. Sauter.

Yes. Thank you very much. We are coming to an end. So thank you, everybody, for your questions. Overall, the financial year developed more positively than we had originally anticipated. Market conditions improved. Our operations performed well, and we made progress with a number of important projects. We believe Verbio is in a stronger position today than it was 12 months ago. So thank you very much. Thank you for your continued interest in the company, and we look forward to seeing you -- many of you at our Capital Markets Day beginning of October. Thank you very much. Have a good day.