Earnings Labs

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 26, 2026

$71.30

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Neal Goldner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Neal Goldner

Analyst

Thank you, Maria, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I am joined today by Matt Avril, our Chief Executive Officer; Mike Flaskey, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jason Marino, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I need to remind everyone that, many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release as well as comments on this call are effective only when made and will not be updated as actual events unfold. Throughout the call, we will make references to non-GAAP financial information. You can find a reconciliation on non-GAAP financial measures in the schedules attached to our press release and on our website. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Matt.

Matthew Avril

Analyst

Thank you, Neal, and good morning, everyone. To begin, I want to briefly acknowledge the recent events in Mexico. I'm pleased to report we've had no safety or property incidences related to our associates or guests. From a business perspective, our operations in Mexico include 4 resorts. And last year, they generated approximately 3% of our worldwide contract sales. So our exposure is relatively small, and we certainly are looking forward to improving dynamics in Mexico. Having made the decision to join Marriott Vacations Worldwide in a permanent capacity, I'm truly excited to be part of the management team as we move the organization forward. We appreciate all of you joining us on the call this morning. And I also want to thank Jason and Neal and their teams for all the hard work as we prepared for this particular call. Further, it is my pleasure to welcome Mike Flaskey to the company as our new President and Chief Operating Officer. I've known Mike for many years. He brings a wealth of broad industry experience, energy and a passion for execution of our commercial operations, particularly in our sales and marketing discipline. I'm looking forward to working closely with him as we transform our operational effectiveness and begin to realize the full potential of our brands and our company overall. I'd like to invite Mike to make a few introductory comments.

Michael Flaskey

Analyst

Thanks, Matt. I'm honored and humbled to be joining Marriott Vacations Worldwide at such an important moment for the company. This is a portfolio of iconic brands, with a strong foundation. I am also thrilled to be reconnected with the Westin, Sheraton and St. Regis brands from my years at Starwood Vacation Ownership. I am excited to work alongside our team to foster a high-performance and values-driven culture, all while creating exceptional experiences for our owners and guests. My focus will be on driving commercial performance from growing tour flow at the top of the funnel to increasing owner engagement, ultimately resulting in revenue and EBITDA growth. These initiatives will position the company for sustainable growth through enhancing both the customer journey and lifetime value proposition for our owners.

Matthew Avril

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. It's been a busy 4 months since joining the company in November. During that time, I have been rapidly getting up to speed on both the challenges we face and the opportunities we have. This period has also allowed me to meet many of our shareholders and analysts that cover our company. Additionally, along with a number of our senior leaders, we have visited more than a dozen of our resorts, including those in Maui, Orlando, Las Vegas and our Scottsdale markets. This has allowed me to have direct engagement and feedback with our teams in the field throughout all of our operating disciplines. While Jason will cover the numbers in detail, I'll briefly review the fourth quarter and full year results. As you saw in our release last night, fourth quarter contract sales declined 4% year-over-year with VPG down 60 basis points, and our adjusted EBITDA was at $186 million. For the year, we generated $1.8 billion in contract sales, which was down 3% from the prior year due to lower system-wide VPG. Adjusted EBITDA was $751 million for the year as we implemented cost-saving actions to offset lower sales. I'm also aware that two topics drew significant attention on our last earnings call, and I'll touch on them briefly. The first topic we introduced was a loss of sales talent and its effect on our results. It is worth noting that, a relatively small number of sales executives can affect our performance in a significant way. Immediately following that call, we implemented an initiative to actively recruit high-performing sales executives who had left and adjust certain underlying root cause compensation structure dynamics. As we sit here today, I'm encouraged that many of the top performers who left us previously have returned and are ramping up with…

Jason Marino

Analyst

Thank you, Matt. Today, I'm going to review our fourth quarter results, our balance sheet and liquidity position and our outlook for the year. In the fourth quarter, we reported $186 million of adjusted EBITDA. We ran nearly 90% system-wide occupancy. Sales were up in Las Vegas, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, but that was offset by declines in Orlando and Hawaii, two of our biggest regions as well as Asia Pacific as we started reducing sales to certain customer channels as part of our revised Asia strategy. As a result, contract sales were down 4% year-over-year, with international sales down 10%. VPG declined 60 basis points compared to last year and tours were down 3%. Total owner sales declined 2% year-over-year, although owner VPG increased for the first time since 2024. First-time buyer sales decreased 9%, primarily due to lower performance in key regions. We ended 2025 with a pipeline of 270,000 packages with 1/3 of these already activated to take their tour this year. We've also added 100,000 new first-time buyers over the past 5 years, providing us future built-in upgrade potential. Delinquencies declined again this quarter compared to last year, and we are close to 2022 levels. Financing propensity increased to 56% in the quarter and sales reserve was 12.7% of contract sales, in line with our previous guidance. Product costs as a percentage of development revenue decreased 90 basis points, while marketing and sales costs increased 200 basis points year-over-year. As a result, development profit declined 8% to $94 million. Total company rental profit declined 26% to $25 million in the quarter due to higher inventory costs. Management and exchange profit increased 9% to $92 million, while our financing profit increased 10% to $53 million, reflecting the consistent and resilient nature of these high-margin revenue streams.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ben Chaiken with Mizuho.

Benjamin Chaiken

Analyst

I'd love to double down on the sales force commentary, Matt. Maybe you could talk about where the sales force was when you started the role, where you are today and where you think you'll be in 3 months? And then kind of related, what were some of the specific actions you took to rebuild the platform?

Matthew Avril

Analyst

Thanks, Ben. A couple of things. I'll give you some overall comments and then double-click as you are asking on some of those specific dynamics. We have roughly 1,000 sales executives today across the system, principally in North -- our North America and Mexico operation. We obviously have additional sales operations internationally that were really unaffected by that particular topic. In some of our conversations and in my comments, we indicated it does not take a lot to move that needle. So the -- I would literally say in the 35 to 50 range, the impact of top performers leaving shows up in the numbers. It also shows up in just the overall cadence of the gallery itself. We got after that immediately after that call. We have recruited back in the 35 range now, and they're ramping up. Some of them had to complete their year-end obligations, et cetera, elsewhere. Some of them had left the industry, others were at competitors, and we reached out to all of them. So we're pleased with the recruiting effort that went on. And -- but beyond that, we're out there recruiting every day. So I would sort of stand down on that question at this point unless you've got further.

Benjamin Chaiken

Analyst

No, maybe just a related, you made a new hire recently at the beginning of the call, you introduced Mike. Maybe if you could talk about kind of high level, some of the things you hope to accomplish here and build on and maybe related, some of the things that maybe VAC was kind of -- lacking isn't the right word, but softer on that Mike can help with.

Matthew Avril

Analyst

Listen, first of all, I appreciate the question. And clearly, one of my responsibilities early on was to evaluate where I thought we could improve the company overall. And reaching out and identifying and reconnecting with Mike and the cadence, energy, passion and the experience he has. Mike, obviously, has been a CEO in this business. He has a long, rich history and grew up in the sales and marketing aspect of the business in a way that he brings an authenticity and energy and a passion for our commercialization activities, very specifically in our sales and marketing arena. But overall, we think there is a real value to bringing all of those commercial activities in our rental, how we yield all of the opportunities we have in the system. So yes, I would tell you that as we look at the execution of our business, across all of our commercialization activities, simply put, where there is a revenue opportunity that needs to be integrated and thought about holistically, Mike's role overseeing all of that part of the business, combined with his personal attributes around the energy and the viewing of the challenges that we have in some respects, as he says, nothing but opportunity. And so that is in place. It's been in place for a week now. And I'm really excited about the addition that Mike brings to our business.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs.

Elizabeth Dove

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I appreciate all the detail. Wondering if you could just go on to the Vacation Ownership business. You mentioned tours down mid-single digit, but VPG kind of stronger to offset some of that. Maybe you could talk about some of those initiatives you kind of called out and to what extent you're thinking new buyers can kind of increase and whether there's any mix shift impact there?

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thanks, Lizzie. This is Matt. A couple of things. We have -- towards the end of the year, we have implemented investment in our training, particularly of new hires as we bring them on to the system. Certainly, mix is part of it as we looked at improving the quality of the tour flow that we had in our pipeline from packages. That has been getting implemented through the latter half of 2025. And I would say, in addition to the plan that we've got and the guidance that we've got, we will begin looking at immediately how we grow the opportunities. I alluded to this earlier in my comments about how you grow cash flow and the various tools to do it. We are going to be focused on improving the VPG in our core operation, but we are going to immediately begin looking at how we expand the opportunities to grow our tour flow and take better advantage of our fixed infrastructure today. We've got 770,000 owners. We talk to a lot of them. We can talk to more of them. We have facilities that can take on more packaged tours, and we're going to be looking at that again, immediately. Those take a little longer to bleed into the system. But we are focused on day-to-day core execution in terms of VPG dynamics. But we're also looking to return an overall environment of growth to the business.

Elizabeth Dove

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Got it. That makes sense. And I guess going a little deeper into that. You've been in this role for a few months now. And you talked about maybe first half could be a little bumpy, but there's clearly a lot of opportunity here. Like how do you think about what's kind of low-hanging fruit versus what takes a little bit longer to kind of turn around and specifically kind of on the cost side as well?

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Well, I'll go backwards on your question. Clearly, when you look at the cost structure of the business, first thing we have to do is be respectful of what the run rate of the business had been. And those are never easy discussions or decisions to make. We have been at that pretty rigorously over the last several months. I alluded to in my comments that we expected to implement further cost reductions before the end of the quarter, and we'll be doing that. We are looking at prioritizing the activities that we have internally. But simply put, overall, the cadence of the business and what our cost structure had become over the years. So when I joined the company, I said two things that everything was on the table, and everything had to earn its right in our business plan going forward. You heard Jason allude to that in some of our disposition strategies, and you have heard us refer to that directly and indirectly with regards to better managing our cost structure for the business needs going forward. So those things have been underway. They are underway, and we look forward to getting them behind us as quickly as possible.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

Charles Scholes

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Mike, welcome, I guess, to your next event of a lifetime as we might say. A couple of questions here. First, you have a pretty lofty target here that was put out a week or 2 ago to get to that $950 million of EBITDA in, I believe, 3 years. How should we think about the balance or the mix as far as cost cut versus revenue growth to get there from a high level to start with?

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Sure. First of all, thank you, Patrick. Appreciate the question. We certainly recognize that, that got some attention. And when Mike and I made the decision, I made the decision to take on the role permanently that I had held on an interim basis and Mike made the decision to accept our offer to join the company, we were both very motivated, and I've alluded to this a little bit in my answer to Lizzie, with regards to the growth opportunity. Certainly, we are after the cost structure right now as we should be. Going forward, it is certainly going to be rooted far more in the growth opportunities I alluded to and the efficiency with which we can do that from a cash flow perspective. There are -- and I alluded to them just a moment ago, numerable ways we can grow nominal EBITDA by growing the number of tours, the number of people that we can talk to. And we have in place infrastructure to do that. We have far more owners on site than we talk to over the course of the year. So that's simply increasing the penetration rate with which we do that. You alluded to, and I appreciate it, the Mike's personal next event of a lifetime. But clearly, to be direct about that, from an overall perspective, increasing our engagement with our owners, bringing increased experiential dynamics to them also increases our opportunity to talk to them in different ways than we have traditionally in our offers to come hear more about Marriott. And it's a setting that creates that engagement. They enjoy the experiences and creates more sales opportunity. Additionally, from a pipeline perspective, there are a lot of underlying building blocks, if you will, how we house our guests, the length…

Charles Scholes

Analyst · Truist Securities.

That's actually a great answer. One follow-up question here, and then I'll hop back in the queue. Concerning the impairment and expectations for product cost, should we expect that those impairments should help keep lower product cost for the next several years? Any relation between those?

Jason Marino

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Yes, Patrick, there's a small relation. We -- in my prepared remarks, we indicated about $10 million of benefit will be realized in 2026. That's included in our guidance. We do still expect product cost to increase this year a little bit, but there is about $10 million of benefit reflected in our guidance this year from some of those inventory impairments that we took.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies.

David Katz

Analyst · Jefferies.

Matt, what I wanted to get at is on your to-do list, Marriott is -- corporate is going through some digital transformation. I wanted to get a sense for where on your list technology initiatives might be for Marriott Vacations. Obviously, it takes a partnership to move those things forward, and that's always been a discussion point. Where does that fit on your to-do list?

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Jefferies.

Thank you, David, for the question and for joining us this morning. We alluded to some of our ongoing modernization spending in 2026. And you are right on top of where the majority of that activity is, which is in our technology from both a digital, we are working on mobile app dynamics, but a portion of that spend is, in fact, to better connect with the Marriott platform and the required capabilities that we have to be part of that system. So clearly, the opportunities broadly from a technology standpoint, digital, in particular, we enjoy a great relationship with the team at Marriott. And in fact, we'll be meeting with them in the not-too-distant future to better explore all the ways in which we can further create value for both our company and Marriott International overall. So we've got a great relationship. There is technology spend that is the focus of the modernization activity this year. So I appreciate the question, and you're right on point.

David Katz

Analyst · Jefferies.

And if I may, have you been able to put some dollar opportunity or earnings opportunity specifically around the technology side of it? I'm really just trying to get a sense for how much catching up there might be to do? And/or is most of the dollar opportunity that you've laid out other than sort of the asset divestitures, the non-core assets, is most of it really technology driven?

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Jefferies.

And just to make sure I'm following the question, David, when you say the dollar opportunity, are you talking about in our near-term cash flow? Are you talking about our '26 results? I just want to make sure I'm answering the right question.

David Katz

Analyst · Jefferies.

No, I really intended it from a long-term untimed perspective. Like how much is there really out there if you can just catch your technology up to where you think it should be?

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Jefferies.

Candidly, I would say that is an enabler of the business overall. And I would tell you the primary -- the improvement that we can see, candidly, is at this stage in the core execution and fundamentals of our business rooted in broadening our perspective around growth to say that X percent of the growth opportunity that Patrick referred to earlier is rooted X percent in the technology spend. I would tell you that's -- we certainly expect that to occur, but I would not say I can bracket X dollars of the growth belief that we have over these next 3 years.

Jason Marino

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes, David, just to add on a little bit to what Matt said. One of our key initiatives this year is on the mobile app. If you -- when you look at where our mobile app sits today versus customer expectations of a mobile app, it's not meeting those expectations. That allows a lot of additional business benefits, hard to quantify, but we know they're real in terms of engagement with the owners when they're on property, near-term booking opportunities filling extra inventory, things like that. So those capabilities exist today through the web, but not in that device that we carry in our pocket and are addicted to. So as we can enhance those capabilities, that's more of the longer-term future, and we're spending on that this year. So that's one of our key initiatives on the technology side related to that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank.

Chris Woronka

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

You guys, with the contract sales guidance, I think, up 4% for the year at the midpoint. I think you exited Q4, I guess, down 4%. I know you expect Q1 to be down a little bit. Is there any, is there anything you can add to give us a little conviction or what's your conviction level in getting to that midpoint? Is that kind of a hard target for you? Is it more aspirational? Is there anything you could point to in terms of package activations or something like that in the remaining 3 quarters after Q1 that might add confidence to that?

Jason Marino

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Just so we're clear, when we -- the guide for the year at the midpoint was 1% contract sales increase. I think you may have said 4%. I just want to clarify...

Chris Woronka

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Oh, right. I'm sorry, sorry, Jason. Yes, correct. Sorry about that. Yes, 1%.

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

No worries, Chris. We just wanted to make sure we were on the -- we were sort of referring to the same numbers. So with that target in mind and recognizing the transition we're in right now, there is clearly a -- as direct as I can say it, as we are both focused on this overall culture of growth as -- you guys can't see him, I'm looking to my left. Mike is sitting here in the room with us, and there's a reason for that. And so the ability to both drive tour flow opportunities and performance throughout the system, I would tell you that, that cadence increased a week ago, and it will increase tomorrow morning, and it will increase Saturday and Sunday. We're after this in a really intense 7-day a week manner. So that's part of what gives me the confidence in it. And yes, you referred to some of the tools we have. We've got a great pipeline. We do have tools to activate that in different ways. And I would tell you that is absolutely one of the ways in which we would look to do that. And also, we can begin some of the things that we're going -- tools that we'll have in place to increase our penetration of our on-site guests. Jason alluded to the fact that our properties run 90% occupied system-wide throughout our resorts. And the opportunity to reach more of them, provide our product features is going to increase. The number of people we'll talk to will go up.

Chris Woronka

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. Understood. And the follow-up is kind of related to that, which is I know in the past, there's been a bit of a narrative, I think it's maybe partly fair that the funnel of customers that Marriott gets to you is maybe changing a little bit in terms of composition based on their push into more select service. So what you're talking about talking to more customers, it sounds like that's coming from maybe non-Marriott funnel channels, if that makes sense. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit on what some of those newer channels are to talk to more folks?

Matthew Avril

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

I'll answer it a couple of ways. Listen, I will not say that, I can refer to every comment that may have been made in the history of the company with regards to what you're alluding to. What I will say is the Marriott broad customer base, there is runway for us there and how Marriott grows that -- their member base is nothing ultimately, but upside for us. There is more to do in the database that we have access to today. That's number one. Number 2, are there other databases in the world that we ought to be looking at to be more creative about and look to partner with, explore to bring into our funnel, as Mike alluded to in his comments, there's no question about it. And then as we look to either grow that package pipeline and/or reaching out and accessing our owner base either on-site or through some of our direct virtual and telephone oriented, there's owners that we don't see every year or every couple of years and being more strategic about how we activate them, get them to return to our resorts or reach them in that interim time is a big focus for the business going forward.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

Charles Scholes

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Great. A question for you, Jason, or the team. Has there been any reassessment of what your specific long-term net debt-to-EBITDA target is? I know in the past, you've called out trying to reach 3x as an ideal metric.

Jason Marino

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Yes, Patrick, I think over the long term, we'd like to be in the 3s. Obviously, you got to be in the 3s before you can get down to kind of the lower 3s. So we're really focused on cash flow generation, making sure we deploy that capital effectively. I'd like to see the debt come down a little bit more. It gives us a lot more flexibility in terms of share repurchases and other opportunities that we may have. So that's kind of the answer there. Just let's get us under 4x, be generating that cash flow, show that path, and then we'll have a little bit more flexibility with deploying the cash.

Charles Scholes

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Okay. And then the final question. Any thoughts about rescheduling that Investor Day? Or is it too soon to start to think about that?

Jason Marino

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Yes, Patrick, you're right. It's a little bit too soon. We've got a lot of work ahead of us, but it's definitely top of mind, but a little too soon right now.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

On your comments about talking to existing owners more, can you perhaps remind us of how many owners have never had an upgrade since their initial purchase? And then secondarily, how do you think about the trajectory of overall owner growth as part of your plans to drive sustainable free cash flow growth long term?

Jason Marino

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes, Stephen, I don't have a number in terms of how many owners in our system have never upgraded. We did -- we have sold 100,000 new owners over the last 5 years. And so that does have some embedded growth potential there. As we think about new owner growth, that's key to our future growth. And so obviously, as Mike has gotten on board, that's going to be a key initiative for us going forward, not necessarily in the guide that we just gave you, but that's top of mind in terms of growing the funnel, growing first-time buyers and really making sure that we have a long-term sustainable growth profile here as we move forward.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

And then one other clarification because I thought that I heard Matt say that going forward, you're going to have kind of clean results fully kind of embedding some of the costs. So does your guidance, particularly on a free cash flow basis, just if you can help us understand what that includes or excludes as it relates to additional modernization and other costs and any way to help frame maybe real cash impact from those things as we look at 2026?

Jason Marino

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes. So I would say, simplistically, the cash flow guide starts with our adjusted EBITDA that we guided to, which would include any benefits from all of our initiatives that Matt alluded to. It does not include any of the asset sales that we talked about, the $200 million to $250 million of asset sales that we're working on, and it does not include roughly $75 million of after-tax costs related to technology and severance related to that continuation of that work. So it's really what we're trying to do is guide the core business operations. I did allude in my comments to 2, call it, onetime positives, the sale of the Cancun hotel, which will be reflected as a reduction to inventory as well as the monetization of our dollar-denominated Asian notes, which is about $50 million in that cash flow guide. So it does have those two things in it. Hopefully, that's helpful clarification.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session as there are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Matt Avril for closing comments.

Matthew Avril

Analyst

I'd like to thank everyone for joining our call today. There's no question at times, it's been a very hectic first 4 months on the job, but they've been incredibly beneficial and personally rewarding. There's a lot of great people here that I have enjoyed getting the chance to either reconnect with, meet and spend time with. We have the organization focused on what drives shareholder value, which is profitability, cash flow and long-term growth. We made a number of difficult strategic decisions, including changing our scope of our activity in Asia. We brought Mike on board to help transform our operational effectiveness. We've also accelerated our plan to monetize excess inventory and any other assets, which we plan to redeploy in debt reduction and returns to shareholders. The next few months will be critical for the organization as we work through our transition. We fully expect the second half of the year, where we will begin to see improvements in our results. Finally, on behalf of all of our associates, owners, members and our Board of Directors and customers around the world, I want to thank you for your continued interest in our company. Thanks for joining us today.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.