Earnings Labs

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 26, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jeff Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Jeff Hansen

Analyst

Thank you, Danielle, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. I am joined today by Steve Weisz, President and CEO; and John Geller, Executive Vice President and CFO. I do need to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued this morning, along with our comments on this call, are effective only today, February 26, 2015, and will not be updated as actual events unfold. Throughout the call, we will make references to non-GAAP financial information. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks in the schedule attached to our press release as well as the Investor Relations page on our website at ir.mvwc.com. I will now turn the call over to Steve Weisz, President and CEO of Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2014 earnings call. This morning, I'll briefly touch on our 2014 highlights, share the progress we've made on our growth initiatives and discuss our expectations for 2015. I'll then turn the call over to John to provide a more detailed review of our fourth quarter performance and our guidance for 2015, after which time, we will then open the call for your questions. 2014 was a solid year as full year adjusted EBITDA was $200 million at the high end of our guidance. Company-wide contract sales, excluding residential sales, improved 3%, and remember, this improvement is against 2013, which included an extra week in our reporting calendar. Excluding that extra week, year-over-year contract sales improved 4%. VPG was strong as well, with full year 2014 VPG in North America of $3,386, outpacing the prior year by 6%. This increase is even more impressive, considering it was on top of the 8% growth in 2013. Company-adjusted development margin continued to improve at 22% for the full year. Adjusted fully diluted EPS was $2.93 at the high end of our guidance range, and free cash flow exceeded the high end of our guidance range, coming in at $284 million. While the number of tourists were down year-over-year, we began seeing tourist trend higher in the fourth quarter. Excluding the extra week in the fourth quarter of 2013, they improved almost 3% quarter-over-quarter. Now let me turn your attention to our recent efforts to add new destinations with strong on-site sales distributions. Some of you felt that on last quarter's call, I was holding back from announcing our progress on this front. On that point, while it is always tempting to discuss our acquisition activity as it progresses, we find…

John E. Geller

Analyst

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased with our strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2014. Adjusted EBITDA was up almost 30% to $49 million, driven by a strong fourth quarter performance in our rental and resort management businesses. Contract sales of our core vacation ownership product grew 3% to $212 million. This was driven by our key North America segment, with contract sales of $186 million, a 4% improvement over the fourth quarter of the prior year. Excluding the impact of the extra week in the fourth quarter of 2013, contract sales in North America improved over 10% in the quarter. And while we do not adjust EBITDA for revenue reportability, it did negatively impact results in the fourth quarter by $5 million. Our contract sales improvement in the fourth quarter was driven by solid North America VPG growth, which increased 5% over last year to $3,255. This was due to increased pricing as well as higher points purchased for contract. In the fourth quarter, adjusted development margin declined roughly 150 basis points to 21.4%. Product cost increased 90 basis points, primarily due to the timing of higher product costs true-ups that benefited the fourth quarter of 2013. Total company marketing and sales cost increased 60 basis points in the quarter, but were roughly flat in our core North America segment, a notable achievement as we continue to invest in new buyer tour flow. For the full year, adjusted development margin was 22%, 220 basis points higher than the prior year. Turning to our other lines of business. Our rental performance in the fourth quarter was much improved, contributing $1 million to our adjusted EBITDA, slightly better than the expectations we discussed on the third quarter call. This stemmed primarily from lower-than-expected inventory costs as…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Steven Kent with Goldman Sachs.

Steven E. Kent - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

My first question is just -- you've now shown the ability to go towards an asset or deferred CapEx program in some form or another. Does that increase your appetite to go down into another price point away from the broad Marriott system?

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst

Well, this is Steve, Steve. I think the way I would respond to that is not dissimilar to prior discussions that we've had in calls. We think about growth in the timeshare space as not unlike what we thought about it when we were in the hotel business. You look for parts of a marketplace where you have an opportunity to expand your footprint where there seems to be meaningful unmet demand. And where we believe we could put forth a product proposition where we could make it accretive to our shareholders. I'm not sure that by moving into asset-light, it has any particular implications for going down market, so to speak, in the more moderate tier. But I guess, conceptually, it could be a piece of that.

Steven E. Kent - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Then just a second question. Your sale of -- you're seeing a nice pickup in the higher points per transaction sell. Does that change your ability to up-sell in the future? Are people buying more initially? And then maybe they won't buy as much on a go-forward or -- I'm just trying to understand the dynamic there.

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst

Yes. Actually, the real answer to that question is no, we don't believe so. We actually think that the first-time buyers, in particular as we move more in that direction, which have a tendency to buy at a lower price point coming in, in terms of number of points they buy. They'll be a prime target for our ability to sell them more points later. So I don't think that there's any concern about that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Agnew with MKM Partners.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division

Analyst · MKM Partners.

First question, if I could just touch on the tour flow. I think you mentioned that you saw a nice sequential improvement in the quarter of 3% quarter-over-quarter. What was the growth year-over-year? And you'd mentioned before in the previous call that you were hoping by the first quarter next year, you'd actually be seeing it up year-over-year. Just comments on what you saw in fourth quarter, plans for the first quarter and how all of your initiatives are progressing.

John E. Geller

Analyst · MKM Partners.

Yes. Just on the tour flow, Chris, fourth quarter, the 3%, that's year-over-year growth, not sequential. We talked about excluding the extra week last year. For the full year, we were still down year-over-year, I think about 1.5% without the 53rd week. So the trends we saw in the fourth quarter were very positive, obviously, just given what we had seen over the previous quarters. So a lot of the programs we've talked about previously continue to gain traction. And some of those packages we started selling last year, that's obviously going to help and ramp up tours as we move through 2015.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division

Analyst · MKM Partners.

Great. And then switch to -- can you clarify again the asset-light transactions? Since San Diego transactions, I think, you said was going to be on the balance sheet. The -- your other planned transactions, will those be structured similarly? And can you just sort of outline the differences, if there are any, between them?

John E. Geller

Analyst · MKM Partners.

Yes. Sure. Yes. I mean the goal is to do both Miami and Waikoloa on an asset-light basis. The other deal Steve mentioned on Marco Island, that's at one of our existing resorts. And so we actually sold the land that we had there to a third party who's going to develop that and then we're contractually obligated to buy that inventory back when it's completed, beginning in 2017. Miami and Waikoloa will have a little bit of a different flavor. Those are new destinations for us. Those aren't existing resorts. So in the case of Miami, that's actually under construction right now, should be completed later this year. We signed a letter of intent with a third party who would rather than us take that inventory down when it's completed, they would take it down and then we would structure it in a way to bring that inventory in over the next couple of years as we needed it to support sales. And Waikoloa is a little bit of a different flavor in that hotel recently traded hands, that new buyer. We have a commitment to take down a wing of that hotel, and we'll -- and that would be converted to timeshare. We're working right now. Rather than us take it down, we would have either the existing owner or a third party step in and take that, convert it, and once again, we would expect those units to be available for delivery in terms of our sales in 2017.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division

Analyst · MKM Partners.

Great. And then just to confirm. So the way you're structuring those, they're not going to come on to the balance sheet?

John E. Geller

Analyst · MKM Partners.

That's right. Yes. That's -- The Marco deal won't come on balance sheet until we buy those units when they're completed. Obviously, we haven't completed the Miami or Waikoloa deal yet in terms of an asset-light. But that is the goal in terms of how we would structure these.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division

Analyst · MKM Partners.

Great. And then last question. With the Ritz-Carlton product and the unsold maintenance fees you're paying. Any pacing over the next, you said, a couple of years to work through that? And is there any -- are there any gating factors that -- closing it to take a little bit longer?

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst · MKM Partners.

The answer to the second part of your question is it's just a matter of working through with the various homeowners association to get their approval to put them into the North American timeshare trust. And we're making great progress in that regard. I would expect that the vast majority of these Ritz-Carlton remaining units will move into the timeshare trust, which will then effectively negate the unsold maintenance fees in the next 18 months or so.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bob LaFleur with JMP Securities.

Robert A. LaFleur - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay. A bunch of questions here actually. I'll probably start with the simple one first. The $20 million land sale you're expecting to close in April. If I recall, wasn't there an extension related to a contingency that you had and I assume that, that contingency didn't come to fruition if you're planning to close the sale. Maybe you could talk a little bit about that.

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Yes. It's -- the contingency was and it was simply on our option that should the buyer of the first $40 million of that parcel want to come back to us and develop timeshare on that remaining parcel on an asset-light basis and sell it back to us over time, they would do that. Those conversations continue, but we anticipate at this point in time, that the parcel will close.

Robert A. LaFleur - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay. And then on the asset-light deals in Miami. You say that's a project that's under construction. What was -- what is it? Is it -- was it originally designed to be a hotel? Was it designed to be a timeshare? And then how does that work if you take down inventory on a just-in-time basis? Is that just in time as it's completed or just as -- just in time as you sell it? And if it's just in time as you sell it, what does that inventory do before you take it? Is it used for rentals or -- I'm just trying to understand how this project works.

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Yes, Bob. Let me take the first part, and I'll let John answer the second part. The hotel was originally designed -- the property was originally designed as a hotel product. It is [indiscernible] Art Deco historic buildings in South Beach. And we are going to convert those to timeshare. They will be timeshare when we sell them. As far as how it's treated in terms of the asset-light, I'll let John talk about that.

John E. Geller

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Sure. Yes. Assuming we're able to complete that with the third party, they would take out and own the hotel. We'd have commitment, Bob, to take down those completed units over time. We kind of stay away from the term "just in time" because we will buy that inventory when we need it to seed it into the trust, get it registered. As you're aware, timeshare being regulated, there's some hoops you got to jump through before you need it for sale. So we'll slate it in and buy it and then put it into the trust and get through that registration process. Before it's sold, it will be owned by the third party. They -- the way the structures work as we most likely be hired to manage those -- the remaining inventory on their behalf during that whole period. And so they -- when we own it, the rentals for the stuff we own would be ours, but until we own it, that would be the third party.

Robert A. LaFleur - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay. I guess -- yes, that make sense. And then Steve, in the past, you've talked about sort of thematically trends and closing rates without giving us specific numbers. I was wondering if you could give us sort of an update of where closing rates have been trending and where that stands in the context, observe your historic ranges and your historic high water marks, that sort of stuff.

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Yes. Closing rates for 2014 were up a little less than a point. And we're still inching up to what the high-water mark had been. We're still not sure of it, but we're very encouraged by what we see.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brad Dalinka with SunTrust.

Bradford Dalinka - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · SunTrust.

Brad on for Patrick Scholes. A couple things. First of all, I believe this is your first asset-light deal. In terms of product cost going forward, how should we think about the impact? And also, just an update, wondering if you guys are continuing to look at corporate debt or if you're happy kind of where you are on the capital structure side.

John E. Geller

Analyst · SunTrust.

Sure. I'll take the first one. Yes. I mean in terms of product launch, we're still targeting where we're at today long term, which is 30% company-wide target or better. We look at where we get product cost even today, the stuff that we build might be more than the 30%. But as we talked about, we're always repurchasing inventory at a slightly better price. And so it's really continuing to target that mix longer term as we start to do these asset-light deals.

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst · SunTrust.

Yes. On the -- just to your comment, I mean, yes, from a structured transaction standpoint, this is our first asset-light transaction. However, I would characterize the buyback of preowned inventory as very asset-light as well. So in that regard, we've been doing it for a number of years. As far as our capital structure, I think we're very comfortable where we are. I mean as you've seen other than the $40 million of preferred, we virtually have no debt. We certainly have a fair amount of cash on hand. So if something attractive comes along, we could -- we certainly have some ability to do some things, and we have $197 million left on the revolver that we could call if we need it.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, I would now like to turn the floor back over to Steve Weisz for closing comments.

Stephen P. Weisz

Analyst

Thank you, Danielle. To say that I'm pleased with how we ended 2014 would be an understatement. However, with the announcement that we've made today and the potential for growth opportunities that lie ahead, we are poised for even better performance in the coming years. Thank you for your participation on our call and your continued interest in Marriott Vacations Worldwide. I look forward to seeing you in New York on our Investor Day on May 15. And finally, to everyone on the call and your families from sunny Orlando, enjoy your next vacation. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you, all, for participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.