Preston Douglas Wigner
Analyst · Daniel Harriman with Sidoti & Company
Sure, Daniel. I think for carryover for us, a lot of that is timing, a lot of that is mix. It varies year-to-year. And again, with the first quarter being our seasonally low quarter, we're doing less selling and more buying. Small changes in mix, small changes in volume for carryover can make a big difference for the quarter. For us, with the short crops for the past few years, we haven't had much carryover to carryover. Just like last year, as I said in my remarks, there was such high demand. We shipped product earlier in the year, and we just had less carryover to sell into the fourth -- into the first quarter. In addition, because uncommitted inventories were so low at the end of the year because it was an undersupplied situation. We didn't have the flexibility that we like with additional uncommitted inventory to be able to make sales towards the end of the season or the end of the year for opportunity purchases with our customers. And now as we move into a more balanced supply, and then as we said, likely oversupply by the end of the fiscal year, the key for us is access to tobacco. If we can access tobacco, we believe we can sell it, given our strategies and our competitive advantages. Our diversified footprint gives us access to all the necessary crops to meet customer needs and our strong relationships with our customers and our close communication with them help us to really mutually navigate market dynamics, shifting from smaller crops and undersupplied to larger crops and balanced or oversupply, those should logically reduce costs, create attractive opportunities, and they should reduce our working capital requirements. And as I mentioned earlier, we also benefit from increasing volumes through our factories, which reduces our per kilo cost. We generally prefer balanced to slight oversupply markets for all of those reasons. And we believe we have competitive advantages that make us a really valuable partner for our customers, especially in these changing market dynamics. It provides us more access and more flexibility to meet all of our customers' evolving needs. And what's also really key for us to remember is that we don't buy tobacco on a speculative basis. We buy it with an understanding of what we believe our customers' needs are so that when you do get into oversupply markets, because we don't buy on a speculative basis, it mitigates that risk that we would end up a year with a lot of uncommitted inventory. And as oversupply continues, what you traditionally see is prices, green prices to the farmer drop year-over-year until you get back into balance. And what we're very careful about is understanding what tobacco we have in inventory, how we're going to move it so that we don't end the year with large volumes of expensive tobacco going into another oversupply season. So we have -- there are some unique things for this current change in the market dynamics. We're going from historically high green prices that we just have never seen before. But our teams around the world, we're very experienced in dealing with changes in dynamics. These aren't the first times we've seen shifts from undersupplied to oversupplied to balanced supply. And again, based on our global diversified footprint, the advantages that give us, the flexibility that gives us, our strong teams on the ground who are experts in buying tobacco, how to buy it, when to buy it. We think we're very well set up to take advantage of that and to help our customers and also to retain the value that we see in doing business with us.