Earnings Labs

Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (UTI)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 6, 2008

$36.22

+1.91%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.07%

1 Week

+13.44%

1 Month

+23.56%

vs S&P

+25.06%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Universal Technical Institute, Inc. third quarter fiscal 2008 conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only-mode. Following today's presentation instructions will be given for the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder today's conference call is been recorded. A replay of this call will be available for 60 days at www.uti.edu or alternatively the call will be available through August 13, 2008 by dialing 1800-405-2236 or 303-590-3000 and a entering pass code 1117052 followed by the pound sign. At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jenny Swanson, Director of Investor Relations of Universal Technical Institute. Please go ahead.

Jenny Swanson

Management

Hello and thank you for joining us today for Universal Technical Institute's quarterly conference call. During the call we will discuss the results of our third quarter ended June 30, 2008 and then open the call up for your questions. The company's earnings release was issued after the market closed today and is available on UTI's website at www.UTI.edu. Before we begin we would like to remind everyone that except for historical information presented, the matters discussed today may contain forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. I refer you to today's news release for UTIs comments on that topic. The Safe Harbor statement in this release which I will not repeat here in the interest of time, also applies to all statements made during this conference call. Information in this conference call including the initial statements by management as well as answers to question related in anyway to any projection or forward-looking statements are subject to the Safe Harbor statement. We have updated our historical business statistics for those who have asked for our company' s trend information. We have posted a slide presentation on our website under the investor relation section to provide greater transparency on key operating statistics. At this time I would like to turn the call over to Kim McWaters, Chief Executive Officer. Kim?

Kim Mc Waters

Management

Thank you Jenny. Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us to review our third quarter results. On today's call, I will provide a high-level overview of the quarter and share the continued progress we are making on key business initiatives. Eugene Putnam, our CFO, will follow with a more detailed review of our financial results. He will also provide an update on our new private loan program as well as the current lending environment with the pending reauthorization of the Higher Education Act before opening up the call for your questions. Before I begin the overview, I like to remind you that under the best of circumstances our third quarter is traditionally the most challenging, given the lower number of student starts in this time period. So, as expected, this quarter was clearly more challenging from a financial standpoint than in years past, due to be insufficient contracts and starts in prior quarters that contributed to fewer average students in school. However, from an operational standpoint, we continue to make solid progress on our business initiatives such as lead generation, contact growth, and show rate improvements which are keys to improving our operating and financial performance in future periods. For the third quarter of fiscal 2008, our net revenues were $80.6 million, down 5.3% from the prior year. This is primarily due to an 8.1% year-over-year decline in average undergraduate student enrollment from 14,630 to 13,452. Net loss for the third quarter was $724,000, as compared to net income of $3.9 million for the same quarter a year ago. While a decrease in revenue due to a lower number of students in school certainly contributed to the net loss for the quarter, an increased investment in advertising and contract services to specifically improve lead generation, student financing…

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Thanks Kim. As reported and as Kim mentioned, net revenues for the third quarter were $80.6 million, down 5.3% compared to the prior year. The decrease is primarily driven by a decline in average student enrollment of 1,178 students or 8.1% and an increase in need-based tuition scholarships as well as military and veteran discounts, which amounted to $2.1 million. These declines were partially offset by average higher tuition prices. Operating and net income margins for the quarter remained under pressure, due to both lower revenues and increases in advertising expense, contract services costs and occupancy costs; some of which were partially offset by declines in compensation cost and depreciation expense. Compensation cost decreased $1.4 million for the quarter to $42.7. This decline is primarily related to aligning our cost structure with our existing student population and maintaining expense discipline during a time of capacity underutilization. This decline is partially offset by an increase in severance for certain individuals of approximately $200,000 and an increase in expenses under our self-insured medical plan. Advertising expense increased by $1.8 million in the quarter to $7 million primarily due to additional investments in response to the positive results of our new advertising campaign and redesigned website. These expenses we believe are investments in our core business and they are intended to drive higher levels of contracts, improve our show rates and ultimately generate higher student counts and improve revenue and margins. Contract services costs increased by $1.7 million for the quarter to $4.2 million. This is primarily related to 18:50 outsourcing the front-end financial aid process, as well as contract employees which are used to fill some open positions and some consultants to provide additional marketing and advertising research as we continue to invest in our previously mentioned national advertising campaign. Additionally, we…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator instructions). And our first question is from the line of Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Thank you. I wonder if you could comment on student persistence in the quarter?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

I would say overall, it was relatively flat. We have seen some fluctuation at different sites depending on geography but it’s not a significant deterioration or improvement.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Okay. Then just one follow up here, regarding your comment on advertising expense, I think you said it was going to be for the fourth quarter, correct me if I am wrong, a little bit less than Q3 and the year ago period. Is that correct?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Yes.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Perhaps if you could give us what it was a year ago in Q4? That will be helpful.

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Maybe Jenny can look that up for us while we are here. I do not have it right at my fingertip. She is looking, hold on one sec.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Okay.

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

It looks like total advertising cost -- well I do not have it for the quarter. I am sorry. I just have it for the fiscal year. We'll keeping digging.

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Why do not we go to the next question, and we will answer that on the call here, while she looks it up.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of with Kelly Flynn with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Kelly Flynn - Credit Suisse

Analyst · with Kelly Flynn with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Thanks. I know you do not want to give guidance, but I am going to ask you for some guidance. Is there anyway you could give us a rough estimate of kind of where overall expenses may trend in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter level?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Well, I guess without giving guidance, we have mentioned that there is roughly on an aftertax basis, if you do the math on the three items that I laid out, close to $600 in aftertax expense from those unusual items. Those, as I said will not continue. So I think to start with, we are lower on that. We will have some lower advertising expense but there also things that will be going in the other way. So, I guess the best way to say is, I would not anticipate a significant change in the raw dollar of expenses one way or the other.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Trace Urdan with Signal Hill. Please go ahead.

Trace Urdan - Signal Hill

Analyst · Trace Urdan with Signal Hill. Please go ahead

Thank you. Eugene, I want to understand the loan program. I thought I heard you say that on the portion that you are funding, that you are going to essentially take a 100% bad debt allowance until you start to receive cash from the student. Am I understanding that correctly? You recognized no revenue for the period until cash, until the students are out of school basically?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Well, you have it partially right. The second thing you said is correct. We will not recognize any revenue on the loan piece until we actually get our cash payment. What I think that you may have misstated is the bad debt. We will not take a charge for bad debt.

Trace Urdan - Signal Hill

Analyst · Trace Urdan with Signal Hill. Please go ahead

So how do your account for that then if you are not recognizing any revenue during the period that the kids is in school?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

It is deferred tuition revenue. It is just like we do right now with discount programs and with the Genesis program, that piece of that student’s tuition, and in fact was the same with the Sallie Mae Discount and Opportunity Funds, until we actually we get payment for that piece of the revenue, there is no recognition of that revenue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Kevin Doherty with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Kevin Doherty - Bank of America Securities

Analyst · Kevin Doherty with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead

Thanks. I just had a question about utilization. As we think about your utilization, how might that vary among your destination campuses? I'm just trying to get a sense here, have you seen any improvements at certain of those campuses? I know today one of your competitors called out three of their schools that were particularly strong. So I am just curious if you can provide any color there?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

There is not a meaningful distinction between the ten different campuses, with the exception of those that might be motorcycle only or something like that, and it’s kind of a sub-campus. However, for the most part, all the campuses are within 3% or 4% of the overall number.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead.

Gary Bisbee - Lehman Brothers

Analyst · Gary Bisbee with Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead

Yes, I am having trouble following you as well in the loan program.

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Okay.

Gary Bisbee - Lehman Brothers

Analyst · Gary Bisbee with Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead

So, if you are not going to recognize revenue until you get cash, but the kid will not pay principal or interest till six months after they graduate, the kids long gone and then all of a sudden you are recognizing revenue from them after the fact. It seems like that is crazy to me. So I guess a little more color would be helpful?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Well, I can not comment on whether it is crazy or not without commenting on GAAP. However, that is the way GAAP works when you do not have any collection history or any determinant metric as far as collectability. So everybody is clear, let me give an example. If we have a $25,000 tuition program of which the student has a $5,000, just to make the numbers equal loan in our program, the $20,000, the 25 less the 5 revenue will be recognized as normal as that student matriculates through his classes. The $5,000, if and when the student makes payment on that, and/or any interest, will be classified as revenue when that comes in. That is the way the accountants tell us, it needs to work and that is the way we will do it until they tell us otherwise. So in essence, if the student never makes good on that, what we have in essence done is provide that student education at a discounted rate.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Herman with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead.

Jerry Herman - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Jerry Herman with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead

Again, follow-up on there Eugene. So just to be clear, the effect would be a reduction in revenue per student initially?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Well, yes, for that individual student. However, remember that what this program is intended to replace is the Sallie Mae Opportunity discount fund and the Genesis program, which -- certainly the Genesis program was the same way. We were not recognizing any revenue other than about a 3% upfront fee of what they paid us on a loan balance, until that student actually graduated from school. I think there was one intermittent payment if they were sufficiently completed enough courses. Similarly in the Sallie Mae discount and Opportunity fund you were getting revenue after the student got out, based on some discounted amount. So, yes on an incremental basis as the example I gave, the average tuition for the first year of that student would be $20,000 as opposed to $25,000. What this is replacing is a program for students that already in essence was pulling down our average first student tuition anyway. Does that make sense? Maybe he got cut off.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Corey Greendale with First Analysis. Please go ahead.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis

Analyst · Corey Greendale with First Analysis. Please go ahead

Hi, good afternoon.

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Good afternoon.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis

Analyst · Corey Greendale with First Analysis. Please go ahead

I will ask my two questions at the same time to make sure I do not cut off. My first question is on, just maybe stating the obvious, but I want to give you a chance to correct what may seem obvious, which is; if you are seeing in a quarter 21% contract growth and show rate is improving would that suggest that at some point you are going to see a quarter where start growth to be 21% or higher? And the second question is, is there a specific criteria you are looking for, before you use with start, going back to opening new campuses again?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

I will take the first part of that. Yes, the math works out that way. If you have, I forget your example, but if you have 10% contract growth and flat show rate, you will have 10% start growth on an apple-to-apples basis. I will let Kim answer the second part there.

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Corey Greendale with First Analysis. Please go ahead

I think the only caveat there I would say is that, there is a significant component related to timing. And so, when you have contracts written inside of a certain month, there is not a guarantee as to exactly when they are going to start. Typically Campus based representative focused on the adult career changes are going start sooner, than those that are coming from the high school market. So, it is not as easily predicted as one might thinks by just putting those two numbers together and I just offer that for a bit of clarification. As far as new campus openings, our first priority is to increase the utilization rates at all of our existing sites and are recognizing that there are differences in those various geographies. We are currently working as we have been talking about for several quarters on ways to penetrate the surrounding markets to do a better job of increasing utilization rates there. And at the same time, are exploring the other markets that we know have potentials to accommodate a UTI Campus of some size, although we believe it to be smaller than what we currently have with the 10 campuses. This is something that our Senior Management and our current Board continues to evaluate but wanted to make certain that we first focus on doing what we need to, to improve utilization at existing sites, especially given the progress that we are seeing and knowing some potential remains untapped in certain markets. And then if I get back to Mark's question on what our advertising expense was for Q4 last year? It was $7.4 million.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Arieh Coll with Eaton Vance. Please go ahead.

Arieh Coll - Eaton Vance Management

Analyst · Arieh Coll with Eaton Vance. Please go ahead

Thank you very much. I had a question about the historical show rates. Can you give us a sense for where they are, are they at 50% or 30%?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

We traditionally have not disclosed the actual number, but it is much closer to the 50%, give or take.

Arieh Coll - Eaton Vance Management

Analyst · Arieh Coll with Eaton Vance. Please go ahead

Okay. And if when I was looking at a graph of your show rates, is it fair to say that the show rate number, whatever it is has been pretty flat, and you have only really seen the real improvement here in the third quarter, the 530 basis point improvement or is the show rate been highly variable?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Arieh Coll with Eaton Vance. Please go ahead

Well, in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, it was flat to the year prior and in the second quarter, we reported the 40 basis point improvement. So, Q3 is where we did see the significant improvement of 530 basis points.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of [Virgen Donaldson with Hotshot]. Please go ahead.

Virgen Donaldson - Hotshot

Analyst

Hi. You said that leads were up 47% in the second quarter and up 41% in the third quarter, but you also said that contracts were only up 21% in the third quarter and I was wondering if the delta here is because these leads are less productive leads or an alternate reason is that there are not enough staff to work the volume of the leads and turn them into contracts and when you hire more people you think that you will be able to convert more of these leads into contracts?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

It is a very good question. We do not believe that we have seen a decrease in the quality of the leads, certainly we had increased the volume and we do need to make certain that we are increasing our staffing levels to work those leads as effectively as possible and I mentioned the fact that we were committed to doing so and will continue to do so, as need be. The other is that, I think something that is changing in the school business or industry in general is that people are slower to make decisions. So, the lag time between the time a student makes initial enquiry or begins to investigate, especially given the presence of the internet, it actually is taking a longer time to convert students, than we might have seen two, three or five years ago. And that is something that we have really focused our sales teams on because, historically, we could get a commitment pretty easily and if we did not get a commitment from students that we have traditionally called enthusiast, we were ready to move on to the next lead. And I think with new leaderships in sales processes; we have determined that there is more gold in there, and if we are patient and we nurture these leads through a longer sales cycle, it does begin to pay-out. So that is why you see increases in leads, and you may not see necessarily the sales cycle in alignment with that, but certainly the staffing level is a critical component, and it is something that we are trying to balance and stage-in, so that we are effective in both marketing and sales.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Trace Urdan with Signal Hill. Please go ahead.

Trace Urdan - Signal Hill

Analyst · Signal Hill. Please go ahead

Kim, I am wondering if we could; maybe just take a step back here a bit. You put an enrollment number this quarter, I have got to go back to June of '04 to find a comparable level of enrollments. So, what do you now believe has happened or has been happening in your business to account for the pressure that you felt with respect to enrollment growth? Is it simply the effect of the economy, and are we simply seeing that now it starts to fade? Has there has been some other factor that you think may have contributed to this that you are addressing in some way? Can you just sort of talk about the big picture here?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Signal Hill. Please go ahead

Well, I think as we have been talking for the last couple of years that it is both macro factors as well as internal factors. And the macro factor certainly has been from an economy standpoint, the labor market, and we do tend to track start growth very -- there is a strong correlation with male unemployment rates for those aged 20 to 24. So that has been a factor. When the job market is really strong, it is hard to get, especially the older adult students into school. The other factor is that it has been very difficult to finance students. And just inside of this last year, we have started to see some really positive changes on the legislative front, as well as some of the initiatives that Eugene mentioned that length in the script. The other thing is that from an execution standpoint, I think we needed to recognize that the generation of students, their spending patterns, buying behaviors and those things started to change, and our approach and [systems] was not necessarily in alignment with them, and that is why we have made the investment and are training our people differently. And we are now starting to see that type of return So I think its both, and as I said before, I think its 50-50. 50% was kind self inflicted and 50% was the environment around us. And now we are benefiting from better execution, focusing on the right things, as well as the changing economic environment that is more favorable to our students.

Trace Urdan - Signal Hill

Analyst · Signal Hill. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is a follow up from the line of Gary Bisbee with Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead.

Gary Bisbee - Lehman Brothers

Analyst · Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead

Can you give us any a ballpark sense of the size of that commitment you plan to make for the loan program, and how much that may have changed given the legislation we have seen? I would assume that it is a fair amount less now than you might have thought a quarter or two ago? Thanks.

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Sure. The legislature change obviously has helped or we certainly believe that it will help, no reason to think it will not. The commitment is $10 million. I think not so much, had the dollar amount changed, but I think, while we did not necessarily put a timeframe on it, I would expect $10 million to still be the number. I just think it will take us longer into the future to utilize all $10 million, because, we will have fewer people or fewer average balances as people come through that program. But, we have not changed the amount of the commitment, but we also did not, as I said put a timeframe on it. That $10 million will take us to where it takes us. We would expect it to us take us longer now, and then we will reevaluate it, based upon the use and success of it at that time.

Gary Bisbee - Lehman Brothers

Analyst · Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead

Okay. And can you clarify in what period the 200 or so applications you have to date that you have approved was in? Was that in July or is that during the full third quarter?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

No, that was in July, but I do not think you should view that as a full run rate because there was a little bit of, pent-up demand. There were some things that in June, some students in June or May that may have got packaged through that, but that was all done in the month of July.

Gary Bisbee - Lehman Brothers

Analyst · Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead

Okay. Great, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Jerry Herman with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead.

Jerry Herman - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead

Thanks again. Could you talk a little bit about the average lead time from a contract to a start, maybe in terms of what it is on average, and then, how that would vary on the Campus side versus the Field side, and are you seeing any changes?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Sure. I can talk about that a little bit. I am going to give you a lot of numbers. On the Campus side, I guess the best way to think about it, on the Campus side about 50% of the contracts that are written are written to start within the next three months, right. 50% on the Campus side scheduled to start in the next three months. About two-thirds of them are scheduled to start within a six-month time frame. So, that gives a little bit of the bell curve there.

Jerry Herman - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead

Right.

Eugene Putnam

CFO

On the Field side, 50% are within the first seven months, as we have said obviously there is a longer lead time on Field to get to time of a cumulative of two-thirds that takes you out to about nine months.

Jerry Herman - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead

Okay. Great am I still in?

Eugene S. Putnam

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead

Yes, you are still in.

Jerry Herman - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead

Let me ask just unrelated question Eugene. With regard to the loan commitment to the long-term program commitment and the share repurchases authorization has your stance on that changed at all, given what might be reduced requirements in private loan and well hopefully --?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Not, really, we still have the authorization out there and I am not mentioning it to try to fool people and they think that we are going to use it. There is no hidden assets there. The authorization is there but we are not having any meaningful discussions about using that, at this point in time. Quite honestly, we want to see how the loan program is used; how successful it is? And two, we do have, as I mentioned counterparties that are important to us in that program and in this time of tight credit and liquidity, the strength of our balance sheet was significant and getting us favorable of terms as we can get with our counterparties and even getting commitment.. So, right now I am personally not really looking to do any significant analysis on buying back shares. It is something that, we believed is an appropriate use of cash. It is just on the pecking order is not the right priority and until we get a little it better feel for how this program is working. I do not think you should expect to see anything.

Jerry Herman - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is a follow up from the line of [Virgen Donaldson with Hotshot].. Please go ahead.

Virgen Donaldson - Hotshot

Analyst

Hi. You said your contract and the growth was significantly higher for the Campus-reps than for the Field-reps? And I was wondering why the Campus-reps are seeing more of an improvement from your initiatives than the Field-reps and where you see that trending?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

The Field-reps are growing at a lower rate, due to a reduction of 24 territories that we made last July. So, this is the first month. July marks the first month in which you can compare kind of apples-to-apples. Throughout most of this year they were down 24 territories. And we made those changes because the territories were unproductive and we discover that if we redirected leads from some of those territories into adjacent territories or back to our Campus base reps, there was more efficient and effective sales channels. We also changed our lead policy that historically allowed our Field sales force those primarily focus on high school students, the ability to work leads up to the age of 20. And we cut that threshold back to nine months within graduation to ensure that the focus was really on penetrating and working the high schools deeper. At that point in time it switched that lead flow over to the Campus reps, as well as those on other territories I mentioned and we started to build some of the momentum with the Campus base. Campus base teams are also the primary beneficiary of the improved marketing efforts. Typically Field representatives are responsible for generating the vast majority of their on leads through high school presentations, whereas Campus base representatives are depended upon the leads generated from our marketing and advertising effort. And so we have continued to increase in that lead engine if you will of this team has been very responsive and productive in the process and we will continue to support that growth. With that being said, I believe in our prepared remarks, I mentioned that we had added 15 Campus reps in the third quarter, we expect to add between 10 to 15 in the next 90 days or so and will continue to add throughout the year, if the lead levels support it and we can create that balance I spoke of earlier. From the Field standpoint we will add a couple of more military reps and we have identified a couple of territories that we will add, I would say, what we call A territories surrounding Campus, so again giving us further penetration in the local market, as well as putting a couple in training, so that we can make certain that our vacant territories are filled quickly throughout the year. So, I would expect to see continued growth from both sides, both Campus and Field, but that is the reason, that Campus is growing at a faster rate then Field.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Mark Marostica of Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

I would like to go back to the comments surrounding ad spending, in Q4 being expected to be below Q3 and year ago level. It just seems, despite presumably higher TV ad cost in front of the election, that, this is counter intuitive. But, I would like to go back to the thoughts that you have around what is TV ad spending as a percentage of overall mix implied in Q4 versus a year ago period and last quarter?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

I would like to share that with you, but I am not willing to share what the spend is from a competitive reason, because our strategy has changed so much in terms of the mix with the television spend and internet that I prefer not to share that, given the momentum that we are at this point.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

So, Kim, would it be fair to say then the TV as a percentage of the overall mix is down than from the year ago period, and even is expected to be down from Q3 and Q4 of this year?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

I would say that the mix in how we are advertising, the creative is different and that we are doing less on the local broadcast stations that we were trying and testing a year ago. We just gained significant efficiencies with our national television advertising. And so we continue to see cost per lead decreases with that, but a still significant portion of our overall advertising spend.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Fair enough. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of [Danny Arnuit] of BlackRock. Please go ahead.

Danny Arnuit - BlackRock

Analyst

Obviously you are seeing some increased activity here, but you made reference a few quarters ago to possibly rationalizing your footprint and subleasing some of the facilities. Are you still looking at that and can you update us on that?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Sure. Yes we are still looking at it, but, I do not think it would be wise for anybody to think that there is some big announcement coming. We have a couple portions of Campus leases coming up in the next six to nine months that we are trying to work to rationalize. But, as you can imagine, when one of four buildings comes up, it is a little bit more difficult. And quite honestly, it is not the best sublease market out there right now. But, yes, we are still looking. We certainly recognize that we have the excess capacity. The best use of it is to fill it with students. But, we clearly recognize that there are things that we can do and are trying to do on a sublease standpoint. But, there is nothing imminent at this time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Kevin Doherty with Banc of America Securities.

Kevin Doherty - Banc of America Securities

Analyst · Banc of America Securities

Thanks Just a follow-up on the last one. Can you just update us with your outlook for utilization, I guess particularly given the turn in starts? I know last time you talked about maybe early '09 before the starts really start kicking in. Maybe any change to that time line?

Eugene Putnam

CFO

Well, I think last quarter, I was I guess, maybe cautiously optimistic that we might have year-over-year start growth in the fourth quarter. I do not recall exactly what I said, but I know I was less optimistic than I am that I said this quarter. So, I am very hopeful that we will see - we saw a little bit here in the third quarter which we did not really expect. We expect to see some in the fourth quarter and hopefully there is nothing that would suggest that those trends should not continue. I think it is more a question of the magnitude of the improvement that we can get in our show rate and the continuation of those contracts that are on the books. But, not a real specific answer to your question, but I would expect to see capacity utilization continuing to improve.

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Banc of America Securities

If I could add to that too, not only has the business been focused on the front-end, we are also looking at, especially giving new funding options for our students. Many were not able to avail themselves of the industry-based electives. And so internally there will be -- as we go into fiscal '09 significant focus on increasing program length, because there is more funding for the students to now get the industry training at an elective level and that too helps overall utilization. So I add that, because we have spent a lot of time talking about the front end of the business, but meanwhile, our operations teams are very focused on making certain that once a student gets to school, they stay in school, and that they are able to optimize all of the training options that UTI provides them with the industry connections that we have.

Kevin Doherty - Bank of America Securities

Analyst · Banc of America Securities

Can you just talk about what may be the size of that opportunity for electives is?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Banc of America Securities

I would say it is significant at this point, given the fact that we have rolled out a number of electives out to all of the sites. Most of the sites have some form of an elective at this point in time. And with students having less access to funding, we have seen a reduction in utilization of these elective classes at certain of our campuses. So now that they have more access to funding, we will focus on trying to increase that program length. And I do not have specific numbers to give you, but I can tell you that there is significant opportunity in terms of available capacity with some of these electives and that is a big focus for our operations team moving forward.

Kevin Doherty - Banc Of America Securities

Analyst · Banc of America Securities

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Corey Greendale with First Analysis. Please go ahead.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis

Analyst · First Analysis. Please go ahead

Hi. Thanks. Since several people have asked about the Q4 ad spend, I just wanted to clarify. You said it would be down as a percent of revenue not as an absolute dollar figure. Is that correct?

Kim McWaters

Analyst · First Analysis. Please go ahead

Yes.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis

Analyst · First Analysis. Please go ahead

I am sure now that was clear. Secondly, it sounds like you are seeing positive trends in terms of show rates. However, have you seen any sort indication that gas prices are affecting students' decisions in any way, particularly people who have to move to the area.

Kim McWaters

Analyst · First Analysis. Please go ahead

We have not seen that so much as an excuse for students on the front-end. But, we are seeing it at the campuses in terms of student, explanation as to why they may not make it to school one day, is that they could not fill up there gas tank and UTI's attendance policy is very strict. And so I know that the Campus teams are looking at ways to help the student budget properly, car pool and those types of things to ensure that the students are able to stay in school. With that being said the cost of fuel has always been one of those things that concerns me about students having to relocate or drive across country to attend UTI. So, we are focused on it and tuned into it and are prepared to help the students in any way that we can.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis

Analyst · First Analysis. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ms. McWaters there are no further questions at this time please continue.

Kim McWaters

Analyst · Mark Marostica with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead

Well in summary, I am very pleased with the progress our teams are making and that we continue to see positive momentum in the marketing, admissions and show rate improvement and I acknowledge and I am asking you to recognize that given the nature of the business, it will take several quarters to rebuild the average student population and revenue. But the front-end drivers of the business are moving in the right direction. We will continue to invest wisely in our core business to drive more leads, contracts, starts and as well as the average student population through increased densities and electives, while maintaining very strong cost controls across the business to make certain, our cost structure is in alignment with our average student population and revenue and we remain committed to being industries choice and not compromising our commitment to students and our industry customers. We will be presenting at a conference in September. We hope to see some of you there, otherwise we look forward to updating you on our year-end earnings call, which is schedule for Monday, November 24th. Have a great evening.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen that will conclude today's teleconference. We do thank you again for your participation and at this time you may disconnect.