Roger A. Jeffs
Analyst · what that means to either new starts or switches from United product
Thanks, Martine. With regard to Orenitram launch, we're in the very early stages of that launch. We just launched officially in June. And certainly, we've tried to keep an initial focus on key experts for high-volume prostacyclin users, so we want to really focus on those experts in the field of prostacyclin use. And one of those reasons is they're going to be early adopters, which they've shown to be. And they are able to use Orenitram effectively, some of whom who have had clinical trial experience so they're very comfortable with the therapy already, and some are new to the use even though they are experts in the field. Given the fact that, that experience has gone so positively, we are actually going to quickly expand our targeting to a much broader audience of what we'll call community prescribers, and these are physicians that have a lot of oral therapy use, but don't have a lot of prostacyclin history in their prescribing patterns. So there's a large target market that really is the opportunity that Orenitram presents in terms of a growth opportunity for United Therapeutics. So that's kind of where we are, and we're going to start that second phase of our launch in mid-August and we're excited about that. I think we have a period of time of upwards of a 1.5 years or so to have that market to ourselves before Actelion has the opportunity to file and possibly get selexipag approved. So that's a period where we can gain traction in the market broadly. We're also offering a lot of unique programs around payer assistance, both copay cards to help with copay costs, we have an assist hub center that we have been managing internally that's a centralized referral team to help patients explore coverage and reimbursement options. And then, we have a patient assistance program to help eligible patients receive their therapy at no cost if they cannot afford the therapy, which is something that we've always done with all of our therapies. You also mentioned selexipag and what does it mean. From my own scientific perspective, I've had to do some forensics on this because very little data was presented. So in June, Actelion hosted a conference call on their GRIPHON study and announced their top line results, which in a study that enrolled 1,156 patients who were treated on average for 4.3 years, they stated a relative risk of reduction in morbidity/mortality of 39%. But I think as important as what they did say is what they didn't say. So if you look at how that endpoint is defined, it was death, hospitalization or worsening walk defined by 2 walks of decrements of 15%. So they have not provided what the impact on death or hospitalization is, which then makes me curious, is this really just a longer-term walk study dressed up as a morbidity and mortality study. And when that data gets presented, particularly to regulatory authorities, will that get undressed quite a bit. So for example, to claim that you have a morbidity/mortality impact when in fact all you have is a walk study in a different manner, I think, is a totally different product profile than what has been claimed to date. And again, I think the data that's forthcoming will have to bear on that. One thing Martine noted in her early comments was that Orenitram is upwardly titratable. We know from the selexipag study that there's only an eightfold difference in doses from beginning to end and there's a dose ceiling. That historically, for prostacyclin, that's a very small, what I'd call, therapeutic threshold for titration and I would wonder what's the durability of that therapy if patients begin to hit that upward dose ceiling. Again, another question to answer. Another question would be what's the size of the walk effect, and this is critically important and I think I want to make sure people understand this. So if their 6-Minute Walk effect is small and they had several dose groups, it's going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to show a dose response. What that will make it very difficult for that therapy to be -- to have done is to be dosed, because physicians won't know how to dose it and if patients aren't improving, they won't know if the patient is benefiting from that therapy long term, and really maybe all they've shown is not an improvement in the patient, but they've slowed the rate of decline. But we know physicians want to see patients get better when they give them a therapy. We've seen this with Orenitram. The active group in the monotherapy study improved by 25 meters. We saw improving walks at week 4, week 8 and week 12. So you can -- there's walk benefit. It is very visible with Orenitram. And then the therapy can be upwardly titratable to match the disease progression, which, again, this hasn't been presented by Actelion for selexipag. But I just caution investors and physicians and patients that not to get too excited until we really understand that data set. And from my early look, if what's driving the morbidity/mortality endpoint is prevention of a decline in walk of 15%, then clearly with a 39% reduction in that basically walk decline, clearly they should have had a very robust improvement in walk. But the fact that it wasn't reported suggests that the event rates are probably low and that the walk effect in the active group is small. And again, I'm making some forensic analysis here, but I think I would just caution everyone not to get too excited about that, and I think that our competitive profile is going to be a very favorable impact.