Earnings Labs

United Rentals, Inc. (URI)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 21, 2016

$960.27

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the United Rentals Second Quarter Investor Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. Before we begin, note that the company's press release, comments made on today's call, and responses to your questions contain forward-looking statements. The company's business and operations are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond its control, and consequently, actual results may differ materially from those projected. A summary of these uncertainties is included in the Safe Harbor statement contained in the company's earning release. For a more complete description of these and other possible risks, please refer to the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as subsequent filings with the SEC. You can access these filings on the company's website at www.ur.com. Please note that United Rentals has no obligation and makes no commitment to update or publicly release any revisions to forward-looking statements in order to reflect new information or subsequent events, circumstances or changes in expectations. You should also note that the company's earnings release, investor presentation in today's call include references to free cash flow, adjusted EPS, EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA, each of which is a non-GAAP term. Please refer to the back of the company's earnings release and Investor Presentation, to see the reconciliation from each non-GAAP financial measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. Speaking today for United Rentals is Michael Kneeland, Chief Executive Officer; William Plummer, Chief Financial Officer; and Matt Flannery, Chief Operating Officer. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Kneeland. My. Kneeland, you may begin. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. I'll begin my comments…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer. Your question please. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Scott. Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Hey. Good morning, guys. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning. Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): I guess starting out, Bill, could you address – you had cited before that you may see some modest rate growth in 2017, obviously an incremental improvement in May and June here, and then you just gave us 2017 which seems on path. I guess I'm looking for what you're thinking about the flow through into 2017 now, and if you could speak to if your trends monthly for rate are flat or up or down to the end of the year, how you would think about that 2017 context, please? William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Sure, Scott. I'll start and certainly, Mike and Matt, please chime in. So, if you look at the range of rate guidance that we gave, if we were to deliver flat monthly sequentials for July through October, and then a normal kind of seasonal decline in November, December, that would put us to the minus 2% high end of our rate guidance. If all of that happened, then we would go into next year with a carryover of about flat for 2017. So that's the high end of the rate range guidance. At the low end, it would take sequential declines of about 0.6%, let's say, each month from July to October in order for us to come in at the down 3% end of our rate guidance. If that happened, again with a normal November,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea from Vertical Research Partners. Your question, please. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Joe.

Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Could you just comment on some of the volatility we've seen in the sequential trends? I think toward the end of April when you last reported, April was trending worse than what you actually experienced for the full month, and then we saw improvements in May and June, now July to show a little bit flattish. So maybe just kind of what you've seen over the course of those four months in terms of kind of what jumpstarted some of the improvement? And then in July, why maybe we've seen that taper when typically in a stronger demand environment we would continue to see month-over-month gains? Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure, Joe. This is Matt. I think you have to first start with how sequential is measured, right. So it's the current month feeding off of the previous month. So by definition that great May, June performance raised the baseline to what you're being judged on in July. So what you saw was just the new contracts going out, as you think about it this way, were not greater than what you achieved in the previous month or the last contract that just came off rent. So there's a lot of inputs, and then you have to think about different geographies and different customer sets, and different products. So, I think to Bill's point about the ability and how difficult it is to forecast sequential rate on its own is proven out by the ebb and flow of what we've seen here in the first half of the year. It's a very, very dynamic metric. But as we manage the business day-to-day, as each manager out in the field is looking at it, you're balancing your decisions on rate and time and is that a profitable customer, not just on that individual transaction, but in the whole of our experience with that customer. So I would say it's just putting a little more emphasis on, as I answered in Scott's question, a little more emphasis on the rate than you normally would in a balanced environment to get the baseline back up to where it needed to be. And now we're going to make those business decisions based upon profitability and customer demand going forward. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. The only thing I would add to that is if there is an opportunity, we're going to take it. We're not shy. We've got the tools. We've got the management team that's myopically focused on it. So if there is an opportunity for us to take more, we're going to definitely reach for it.

Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

That's helpful. Thanks. And then just one more on with what we've seen at some of the Rouse supply-demand data recently, I think on the demand side, some of that's explained with heavy equipment trends and some weather effects. But when you think about it on the supply side, outside of your own decisions, is your general sense that the industry is behaving rationally with the supply growth that we continue to see. And then related to that, do you think that we have now fully moved beyond some of the equipment redeployment related to oil? Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So there are several answers there. So in my estimation, I think we have moved beyond the oil and I think that has been fully absorbed. I think what we're seeing now out of the Rouse is net new acquisitions or net new fleet being added to the mix. It's not unusual because typically in the second quarter our industry has a tendency to fleet up that captures the balance of the year. The answer is going to lie in what does the balance of the year look like and the good part of it is there's reports now that are out there that we can have a better understanding of what is happening and make adjustments accordingly and we have done that; that's number one. Number two, I think by order of magnitude when you ask is everyone playing safe or playing right, I think that one of the things that I took away from the Rouse report, I believe, it was in May, the report actually saw where the supply was below the demand. The demand was higher. So that would tell me that their people are being good stewards in understanding of the industry trends. The question is does it continue? That's everyone's question.

Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Got it. Thanks very much. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Thank you. Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Coppola from Thompson Research Group. Your question, please.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

So kind of a follow-up to that last question. It sounds like folks are being good stewards and growing fleet at a lower pace, but what are you seeing in terms of the competitive environment in terms of price? So certainly your focus on price has been a significant driver of sequential improvement here. What are you seeing in terms of competitive pressure as well? Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure, Nick. This is Matt. I mean, it's been competitive. It's been competitive for the past 18 months. And I would say that to Mike's point about the Rouse data, that supply continuing to moderate should help ease some of that competitiveness because the demand is there. So that's the great news, if demand is there. I think the challenge that we have to focus on is when you are the big guy on the block, you have the requirement to be the leader. And we take that leadership position very seriously and there is always going to be in any given market somebody that wants what you have. That's nothing new. By the way that happened during the peak runs in the 2000s and it happened from 2010 to 2014, and we just need to make sure we keep a balanced approach to how we're going to defend the business we have as well as grow upon new end-markets and that's why you hear a lot of focus on our specialty business, on our value prop, and bundling all of our services and utilizing our footprint in a way that's unique advantage to us. So that's how we balance it, Nick, and that's how we'll continue to go on.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then can you just talk more about demand trends, particularly in Canada? What are you seeing there and are there potentially more fleet transfers that you can do? How are you working to mitigate any kind of weakness there? Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So from a demand perspective, Canada is still very, very challenged. Now there's some provinces like if you look at the GTA, the Greater Toronto Area, we're actually up year-over-year. So there are some good spots, B.C. isn't bad in Western Canada. But if you can imagine the provinces that are resource reliant and commodity reliant markets, they're really hurting right now. As far as fleet movement, I think that we'd pretty much move the fleet out of Canada, if we need to. As we sit here today, our Canadian business is down over 11%, but that's only 3.1% on fleet on rent volume. It's almost 8% on rate. So we think we've got the fleet right-sized in Canada, and I think most of our competitors have done the right thing as well and gotten their footprints and their head count and their fleet rationalized to the current market conditions.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mili Pothiwala from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please. Mili Pothiwala - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Yes. So, I guess, could you just provide sort of an update on how you're thinking about the non-resi environment? Obviously, you seem fairly positive on the near-term, but I guess more generally, how you're thinking about the cycle here, especially given some of the data points we've seen on the macro front have been more choppy recently? And then just as a follow-up, I guess, can you jut parse out which verticals are stronger, which ones are weaker, any end markets that got incrementally better or worse during the quarter? Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'll try and take. This is Mike. I'll try and take a macro view, and then I'll let both Bill and Matt talk about and chime in as well as the verticals. But you're right, there's positive encouraging comments around construction, and there's also some negative and cautious variables out there. I mentioned the ABI, the Dodge Momentum Index is another one, non-res starts, contractor backlog, the ISM, PMI, our own customer survey, these trend towards the positive. On the other side, we mentioned the Rouse non-res construction put in place that slowed a bit. The other part would be the construction employment numbers that came down. The question we have to ask ourselves is how much that was due to projects related in and around the oil and also possibly some weather related. (37:31) keeps on coming down here in the U.S. So when we look at our backlogs and we talk to our customers, they are very optimistic in looking out over the next year of the projects they've got booked.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber from RBC Capital Markets. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Seth.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys. I actually wanted to touch on the 2017 CapEx point as well. Since you have kind of laid out this framework for us where if rates kind of are at that down 2% number for this year, you've talked about carryover into next year kind of flat from a rate environment. So Bill, trying to get a little bit more granular here, if you're looking at flat rates for next year, where does that put you in that $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion spectrum, is that enough to go the top end of that spectrum, and if you're down 3% this year, does that put you to the $1.2 billion? I'm trying to just pin you down a little bit more relative to this new data that you've given us. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Thanks, Seth. I appreciate being pinned down. Look, we will have much more conversation about it, and answering a hypothetical is always a very dangerous game. What I would say is if we felt like we were carrying flat carryover into next year, and if we were confident in the demand supporting that or better, then I think we'd be more willing – certainly more willing to spend more than the $1.2 billion we're doing this year. How far up we would go in that total range? Hard to say right here and now. $1.7 billion is the max that we've ever said, $1.6 billion would be a shade under that. The question at the top end of the range is, A, would you have enough confidence in the environment to spend close to the max that you've ever spent? That would be a robust discussion. That said, it's on the table as we sit right here and now. More realistically, I think, we're probably looking something more like what we spent last year, that $1.5 billion kind of number. Again, but that would be dependent on us saying, yeah, we've got a rate environment that's okay, and we've got a demand environment that looks like it's going to sustain. And it's got to feel like it's going to sustain more than just calendar 2017, right. And so, those are the kinds of things that we'd be discussing; we'll be able to say more as we get into our Investor Day late this year.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Would you expect the mix still – the growth capital to still be skewed towards the specialty business in that scenario? Call it $1.5 billion, would you be – would the large majority of that growth continue to go towards specialty? William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. If we were at $1.5 billion – again, dangerous game playing with hypotheticals, but I think specialty would still be a very significant portion of the growth capital in that kind of scenario. I'll remind you what we said before, right, this year, we don't have a lot of growth capital in our gen rent business after you include the effect of inflation.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Right. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So, if we're spending more than the $1.2 billion, then some of that incremental spend would be going into the gen rent side of the business, but we'd also be supporting the growth in our specialty businesses in a robust way as well.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then just to follow-up on the energy markets. Rig count seems to have stabilized here, commodity prices are stabilizing. Have you heard anything from your customers with respect to project activity restarting, incremental demand around kind of the current environment, or do you think that's still on the come? Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, Seth, this is Matt. I would say it's still too early for that. Everybody is reading the same rig data and the same reports, and I would say it's still too early for us to see it materialize into additional revenue, but it does give us comfort that we may have passed the trough, which is good news. And we were kind of planning on flat in the oil and gas markets for this year anyway. So we've moved the fleet appropriate. We think we have some existing capacity in there to absorb a little uptick, which would be great, but nothing that's making us think that we'd actually be moving more fleet into the oil and gas market at this point.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Terrific. Thanks very much, guys. Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Seth. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of George Tong from Piper Jaffray. Your question, please. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, George. George K. F. Tong - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Hi, thanks, good morning. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, George. George K. F. Tong - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Bill, can you flesh out some of the factors that contributed to your lower time utilization guidance for the full year and how you see time ut. playing out during the remainder of the peak rental season? William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure, George. So, I mean, we touched on it before. It's partly the interplay between rate and time, and how we expect to be able to manage that go forward for the second half. We think the demand environment will be there to allow us to realize our goal for the year, which was nice year-over-year time ut. improvement. And we've got to make sure that we're approaching the market in a way that that allows us to do that, while also realizing as much rate as we can. So, I think that's really how to respond back, right, is that – it's the interplay between rate and time that we expect. We do expect to be able to continue to drive nice year-over-year improvement in time utilization. You saw 30 basis points in June, that's below where we want to be and need to be, and so we expect that we'll be delivering a little bit more year-over-year improvement as we go into the back half of the year. And…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore ISI. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, David.

David Raso - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Hey. I know we're working with a lot of midpoints here, but – and I can happily take you through all the math. It still seems that you're implying 2017 EBITDA to be down a little bit, when you capture all the aspects of your free cash flow guidance midpoint for next year, how you're viewing your net debt-to-EBITDA leverage. So, if I can just ask you straight out, is that what you're trying to imply with these numbers, or it just TBD, to be updated in October, and I'm – obviously I'm looking at slide 20 as you're – what kind of leverage do you expect in 2017, be it 2.6 times, 2.7 times net debt-to-EBITDA. Again, it's implying EBITDA down next year, I just wanted to ask you is that what you're trying to imply? William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So, David, we give the range that we give to be explicit, the ranges on all of the guidance that we give, could lead you there. And I can't argue with the math that could come out, but I just, I think we do this every quarter, I'll just emphasize that the ranges are ranges for a reason.

David Raso - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Sure. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And don't anchor yourself too much to the midpoints of the ranges in guiding how you think about how we're going to do this year. Now that said, we are facing an environment where we expect rates to be down 2% to 3%, that's a significant headwind for a year to start out with, and utilization improvement is a great thing to try and offset that, but rate is pretty powerful as you know. So, that's a challenge that we are working to overcome. Will we overcome it or not, tune in later in the year and we'll see.

David Raso - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

And a question about the CapEx planning for next year, even within that CapEx, where you would allocate the capital, clearly specialty rental has been a focus. But, when you look at the dollar utilization year-over-year, you kind of see booms and lifts the dollar ut. has been – at least this past quarter was pretty negative, but trench and other has really been very negative. I mean, it's getting less negative, but it's been still pretty challenged, I mean, it was the worst for this quarter, it's been the worst year-over-year dollar ut. now for five quarters or so. How should we think about that? And maybe educate me, and when you say trench and other, how much is that capturing any of the specialty rental, I'm just surprised that dollar ut. has been that weak. It's actually been the weakest of your four major categories you provide us with the data? Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So, David, this is Matt. That trench and other is a real broad bucket, you've got pumps in there, you've got light towers in there, you've got all kinds of stuff in there that's watering it down. So, I would not take that trench and other as a proxy for specialty in any way, shape or form. If it were just specialty, we'd still have the drag, that the pumps dealing with, right, obviously.

David Raso - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Sure. Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: But, I would not – we'd probably change the label on that, maybe it won't be trench and other, maybe it will just be other, but that is not a proxy for our specialty product.

David Raso - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

All right. That's good to know. I appreciate it. Thank you. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, David. Matthew John Flannery - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our final question today comes from the line of Robert Wertheimer from Barclays. Your question please.

Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

You kind of touched on this earlier, but I wondered if you would hazard a guess as to the shape of Canada over the next couple years. It's obviously very, very weak. You mentioned some sort of sequential strength. I mean, when do you think it will trough and is there enough fleet rationalization to get profits back without a sharp rebound, just maybe the shape of what you see? Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: This is Mike. As Matt mentioned, it's really a tale of two sides. There are some positives that are happening out of the East as opposed to the West and Western Canada, which was impacted by oil. But on top of that also the players that put things on delay. I will tell you that to restart the facilities there takes an enormous amount of work. It's not an easy feat. So and as you think that, that will be – the things have stabled out. So, I think over time, with the capital investment that the government has committed, we'll start to trickle in over time. My sense is that, could it be a year, that's anyone's guess. I know, I can't predict where oil will be, tried that didn't work, but my sense is that, it's probably more on the mends than it is on a decline.

Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you. I'll see you soon. Thanks. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. William B. Plummer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Rob. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Rob.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I'd like to hand the program back to Mr. Michael Kneeland. Michael J. Kneeland - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, thanks, operator. I want everyone to feel free to reach out to Ted Grace, who heads up our IR here in Stamford, and also our new investor presentations are available and downloaded on our site. I wanted to thank everybody for taking the time out to join us on today's call. So, I think today is – now is an appropriate time to end it. Thank you very much, and talk to you in the third quarter call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.