Dick Hayne
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead your line is open
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today I’ll speak briefly about our fourth quarter results and then provide some commentary on current business trends. The macro environment and growth initiatives before turning the call over to your questions. I begin with URBN’s fourth quarter performance while Q4’s 4% retail segment comp beat our forecast additional mark downs were needed to achieve those sales and clear excess inventory. All three brands entered the quarter with elevated retail segment inventory levels. All were successful in lowering them by quarter’s end and thus entered the New Year with reduced weeks of supply and cleaner stock levels. This should benefit Q1 performance but the effect of additional mark downs in Q4 was to drive margins and profitability lower. Off our three brands, Urban had the most challenging holiday season posting a flat comp on higher mark downs and lower margins. Sales of women’s apparel did perform slightly better than total, but we’re also largely driven by higher mark downs. By contrast, reaction to the spring women’s apparel assortment has been more favorable in both North America and Europe. And Urban’s comp sales have improved. We’re encouraged by this trend although it’s still early to make predictions for the entire quarter. Moving to the Anthropologie brand, comps in Q4 were up an impressive 6% driven by positive results in stores and digital. Product execution and marketing improved in the fall, driving that fiercely loyal Anthropologie customer back into stores during the holiday season. The brand did not disappoint and the provided the customer with what I believe is a best-in-class store experience. This drove positive comp store traffic and sales. The brands holiday promotional calendar match last year in terms of number of events, depth of discounts and event duration, even so, sales generated this year by those promotions came in significantly higher than last year and led to higher mark down rate and lower margins. Anthro’s inventory in Q4 started out high, but were gradually reduced during the quarter and ended up in excellent shape. As for Q1, comp sales to-date have maintained the fourth quarter trend. The leadership team is especially pleased with customer reaction to the new optimistic and colourful spring apparel assortment. Once again, the Outlier during the fourth quarter was the Free People brand. Retail segment comps are plus 9% blew away plan. Sales were paced by full price apparel and robust digital growth. A stand out was FP Movement. Free People’s activewear brand. Sales of movement product almost doubled during the quarter and the number of new customers grew by over 120%. In addition to strong comp sales the Free People retail segment also achieved better margins and profits. The customer showed us, she’s very willing to spend at regular price when offered must have products. The sales momentum created in the fourth quarter has continued into the first and we believe Free People could be poised to deliver another outstanding retail quarter in Q1. Unfortunately, the brand did not produce the same excellent results in the wholesale channel where after many years of solid growth revenues declined by 12%. Lower profits were driven by weakness in and charge backs from the North American department store customer segment. All other customer segments specialty stores, digital businesses and international partners showed healthy year-over-year revenue gains. The whole team readjusted allocations to department stores during the quarter and the brand now believes that while Q1 will most likely see softer sales, the channel should return to solid profitability. After that wholesales revenues and profits are planned to stabilize and then start growing again. This short-term blip is no way changes our enthusiasm for the channel or our commitment to our wholesale partners. Now let me turn your attention to the macro environment. The US consumer is in excellent shape. The economy is strong, jobs are plentiful and the consumer sentiment remains high. She’s optimistic and willing to spend when offered compelling products. As we think about the current year, we see plenty of fashion newness in women’s apparel more than enough to drive nicely positive comps. Women’s fashion is currently leading the comp gains at all three brands. Traffic is up on a year-over-year basis in both stores and online and she’s not just looking, she’s buying. There is however one large caveat to this optimism and that’s COVID-19 virus. The risk to our company is two-fold. The first is to our supply chain. Fortunately, we significantly reduced our sourcing penetration in China over the past two years. Moving from over 40% to less than 15% for production of our internally designed product, getting accurate and reliable information from China is currently difficult. But we believe most Chinese factories and mills have reopened with output running approximately 50% capacity. The expectation is output will grow steadily over the next two weeks, as workers clear the virus incubation period and return to work. In case that doesn’t happen or happens more slowly our teams are working diligently to secure alternative sources in other regions. We are aware that some delivery delays in the April, May timeframe are likely. This would impact production flow and could increase landing cost as well, as we form new factory relationships and use expedited shipping. The second risk is disruption to the communities where we have stores, offices and fulfilment centers. We have no store exposure in Asia and our office in China is small. However, there is the potential for flare ups to disrupt communities in Europe and North America. At this time, we have no way to quantify this risk. The bottom line as COVID-19 creates supply chain uncertainty and could create demand uncertainty as well. We are aware of these risks and have taken actions and made plans to mitigate their effects to the best of our abilities, keeping our associate safe is obviously our highest priority. Now allow me to talk briefly about three exciting growth initiatives at URBN. The first is Nuuly, our subscription rental and resale business. Six months after launch customer acquisition is ahead of plan and today it stands above 27,000 active subscribers. Feedback remains overwhelmingly positive and back office [ph] operations are functioning smoothly even areas like laundry where we had no experience prior to launch. It is still early and we have much to learn about this business model, but the reaction so far had excited us for the future. We will share more detailed operating metrics later in the year. Another bright spot is FP Movement that I spoke about previously. Movement offers highly differentiated product and is gaining market share in a rapidly growing women’s fitness and wellness space. The brand currently operates across all three distribution channels including their landing page on the Free People website more than 250 wholesale accounts and over 50 dedicated Movement shops within existing Free People stores. This year the brand will open three standalone FP Movement stores and plans to significantly increase that number in the next two years. Over the longer term, I believe Movement has the opportunity to rival the other URBN brands in terms of revenue size and profitability. Our third growth initiative is opening 30 new stores in North America this year. Over the past five years we exploded the [indiscernible] store openings to trickle because occupancy costs were too high especially in the primary markets. The leasing environment has now changed radically and is once again economically favorable. We have negotiated advantageous leases many of which are presenting trend only with substantial build out contributions. Furthermore, most of the leases are in non-redundant secondary markets which tend to be our most profitable locations on a rate basis. An additional benefit is that opening a store in a new metro area typically drives additional digital sales too. Finally, one of our goals for FY 2021 is to stem the gross margin erosion at our two larger brands. To do this, we plan to increase the penetration of internally designed product. This means investing more in design and creativity. More and better internal product should increase IMU and lower mark down rate. In addition, we plan to invest more in marketing and gently increase AUR. So as we think about the current year, we believe the customer is optimistic, consumer sentiment is strong and our brands are resonating well. She’s currently pleased with our fashion offering and our marketing messages. We realize there’s elevated risks to our business and to global economic activity due to the new virus, but believe any panic like reaction will likely be reasonably short lived. Finally, we excited by our growth in business initiatives and the investments we’re making in our new and existing brands. In closing, I thank all brands and shared service leaders. Their teams and our 24,000 associates worldwide for their hard work, dedication and creativity. I also recognize and thank our many partners around the world and finally, I thank our shareholders for their continue support. That concludes my prepared remarks. Thank you and now for your questions.