Richard Peretz
Analyst · Ken Hoexter, Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead
Thanks, David. The second quarter operating results demonstrate the value of our flexible business model as we had another solid quarter. Additionally, we're seeing high-growth in the e-commerce and healthcare sectors while the LTL and forwarding markets remain challenged. Even with these dynamics currency-neutral revenue growth increased 4% while fuel surcharges were a drag of around 120 basis points. Second quarter earnings per share were in line with expectations. Our performance reflected the gains from our investment strategies despite the mixed macroenvironment. The International segment outperformed while U.S. Domestic was on target. And finally, Supply Chain & Freight was slightly below expectations. Now for some details by segment, U.S. Domestic revenue increased 2.4% as lower fuel surcharges reduced total revenue growth by about 100 basis points. Average daily volume increased 2.5% led by Next Day Air products which were up about 6%. The Next Day Air gains were produced by customers of all sizes. Demand was consumer-based as more online retailers are providing faster delivery options to stay competitive. During the quarter Ground products increased 2.4% over last year as B2C expansion outpaced B2B by more than 5 to 1. Base rates accelerated slightly from last quarter. Lower fuel surcharges reduced yield growth by about 100 basis points. The higher base rates were able to compensate for some of the changes in product and customer mix. Operating profit increased about 3% and operating margin expanded to 13.7%. Enhanced productivity and lower fuel cost resulted in operating cost per piece declining 2/10 of a percent. Once again we're seeing good improvements in our daily operating statistics. Despite the fact that delivery stops were up over 3% ORION lowered driver Miles by 3/10 of a percent. In addition, overall productivity gains continued as direct labor hours grew less than the volume. Our investment in ORION is bending the cost curve. And we remain on track to complete Phase 1 implementation later in 2016. We're continuing our multiyear investment strategy in hub automation in the U.S. operations. So far in 2016 we have announced new projects in California, Colorado, Illinois and Texas. These facilities are adding increased capacity and improved productivity. Now turning to the International segment which had another remarkable quarter with operating profit expanding more than 11%, on a two-year stacked basis operating profit is up more than 30%. Export daily volume increased almost 4% as improvements in all international regions offset slower U.S. exports. Europe led the way with significant gains in cross-border products and export growth to all regions of the world. In fact, the Europe to U.S. Lane grew at double-digit pace this quarter. Cycling out of the revenue management initiatives that we started in the last half of 2015 we have seen good non-U.S. domestic daily shipment growth which is up 4.5% while at the same time currency-neutral revenue per piece increased 1%. We saw higher base rates. However, they were offset by changes in product and trade lane mix. Currency-neutral revenue for the segment increased 1.5%. The lower fuel surcharge did impact revenue growth by about 170 basis points. The cost and productivity improvements held operating down during the quarter. As a result, operating margin expanded to 19.9%. The International segment had a record second quarter with its highest second quarter delivery volume, operating profit and one of the best margins ever. Now let's turn and look at Supply Chain & Freight. Total revenue increased more than 13% due to the addition of Coyote Logistics. The new truckload brokerage revenue offset tonnage shortfalls in international forwarding and the U.S. LTL business. Freight Forwarding revenue and operating profits declined as we wrapped last year's rate actions. Cargo capacity continues to outpace demand, contributing to the weak market conditions I mentioned earlier. Expansion of the buy-sell rate and cost-containment efforts led to the operating margin expansion. The unit remains focused on growing the more profitable middle market. In the Distribution unit we experienced strong revenue growth in the healthcare, aerospace and automotive sectors this quarter. In fact, this quarter healthcare became the top revenue sector within the contract logistics business. Distribution operating profit jumped more than 10% and the margin expanded. The UPS Freight business remains disciplined on pricing with revenue per hundredweight up 3%. The unit's execution of revenue quality initiatives is driving higher shipment yields. Total tonnage was lower by about 10% due in part to the weak LTL market conditions. Now to update you on our cash position, for the six months ended June 30, UPS generated $3.7 billion of free cash flow, a 13% increase over last year. And this was after spending $1 billion on CapEx. The Company paid just over $1.3 billion in dividends, an increase of almost 7%. In addition, we purchased over 13 million shares for more than $1.3 billion. Combined we're on schedule to meet our return to shareholders goals we set for the year. Looking at the rest of the year, our strong International performance and the return on investments we're making in our network give us confidence in our ability to achieve our full-year earnings guidance of $5.70 to $5.90 per share. As I discussed in February, we expect 2016 operating profit by quarter to follow the same pattern as it did in 2015. We still expect the fourth quarter operating profit growth to be above our annual guidance, somewhere between 9% and 11%. The additional workday between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the continued strength in e-commerce and our strategic investments position us well for another solid fourth quarter. Looking at the segments, in the U.S. Domestic we expect strong fourth quarter results. However, we will face tough comparisons in the third as a result of one less operating day and lower Worker's Compensation cost last year. Therefore, we anticipate third quarter operating profit to be relatively flat year over year. For the International segment we expect to continue into the second half of the year the progress we have made with operating profit growth in the 8% to 12% range. The Supply Chain & Freight segment is where we anticipate the current market trends in International Air Freight and the U.S. trucking markets to remain soft. In addition, lower fuel surcharges will weigh on reported revenue growth. Therefore, total annual revenue growth for the segment should be around 10%. Now let's look at taxes. The faster growth of our profits from the International segment means that we will have a slightly lower tax rate in 2016. In summary, UPS' financial performance this year clearly demonstrates the value of our diverse business. We're embracing the opportunities created by the evolution of the global e-commerce marketplace as it expands beyond the traditional retail base. We continue investing in strategic technologies, systems and expanded capacity and by our execution we're strengthening our leadership position. At the halfway point of the year our business is responding well to the changing macroenvironment and we're confident about the remainder of 2016. Thanks for your attention today. Now I will ask the operator to open the line. Operator?