Earnings Labs

Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 23, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Upbound Group formerly Rent-A-Center’s Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Brendan Metrano, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Brendon Metrano

Analyst

Good morning and thank you all for joining us to discuss the company’s performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022, the outlook for 2023 and our new parent company name an enterprise brand, Upbound Group, Inc. We issued two press releases this morning before the market opened. The first regarding Upbound and the second, our fourth quarter earnings release. Both press releases and all related materials, including a link to the live webcast, are available on our website at investor.rentacenter.com. On the call today from Upbound Group, formerly Rent-A-Center, we have Mitch Fadel, our CEO; and Fahmi Karam, our CFO. As a reminder, some of the statements provided on this call are forward-looking and are subject to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. These factors are described in our earnings release as well as in the company’s SEC filings. Upbound Group undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. This call will also include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our fourth quarter and full year earnings release, which can be found on our website for a description of the non-GAAP financial measures and the reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. With that, I will turn the call over to Mitch.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst

Thank you, Brendan, and good morning to everyone on the call today. We will start with a discussion of our corporate name change to Upbound Group, Inc., which we announced in our press release this morning. Then I will review some full year 2022 highlights and plans for 2023 before handing off to our Chief Financial Officer, Fahmi Karam, for a more detailed review of financial results and our financial outlook. At the conclusion, of course, we will take some questions. As I just mentioned, today, the company announced the corporate name changed to Upbound Group, Inc. This is an important milestone for us essentially marking the next stage in the company’s journey. Since acquiring Acima Holdings in February of 2021, which almost doubled the company’s size and expanded its presence in point-of-sale financial solutions, we made a lot of progress on integration and strategy development. Today, the two organizations have really come together to become a new and exciting company positioned to continue to evolve and grow our reach. We now think it’s important to define who we are under a unifying identity and mission. That identity is Upbound, and its mission is to elevate financial opportunity for all. As Upbound, we will achieve this mission with an omni-channel platform that offers a range of inclusive and flexible financial solutions that can address the changing needs and aspirations of consumers. Upbound is an enterprise brand that will help to define strategies and unify resources and capabilities across the company so that we can more effectively achieve our objectives. Our customer-facing businesses will continue to operate under the same well-established brands that have built a loyal following over many years. Upbound represents our transition to a different enterprise operating structure that will enhance strategic planning and other functions within the…

Fahmi Karam

Analyst

Thank you, Mitch, and good morning, everyone. I’ll start today with a review of the fourth quarter and full year financial performance and then quarterly guidance, after which we will take questions. I’ll start my commentary on Page 9 of the presentation and would like to note that we added a new key metric table in the press release this quarter to help investors more efficiently assess the company’s performance. We have also disclosed a couple of new metrics at the segment level that we’ve highlighted in the past that will disclose more prominently going forward. For Rent-A-Center, that’s our portfolio value and for Acima, it’s GMV. Moving on to the results, consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter was down 15.4%, led by a 22.2% decrease for Acima and a 7.7% decrease for the Rent-A-Center business. Looking at revenue categories, rental and fees revenues were 13.3% lower and accounted for most of the decrease in consolidated revenues, reflecting lower portfolio values for both businesses during the current year. Merchandise sales revenues decreased 26.8% as a result of fewer customers electing early payout options. Consolidated gross margin was 50% in the fourth quarter, up 190 basis points year-over-year due to a higher mix of rental and fees revenues compared to merchandise sales in the current year period. We continue to execute well on expense management in the fourth quarter with consolidated costs, excluding skip/stolen losses, down 8% year-over-year, led by a 10.4% decrease in labor costs. As Mitch noted, our efforts in account management and underwriting are paying off, evidenced by our fourth quarter loss rate of 8.9% for Acima, which was down 290 basis points year-over-year and is the lowest since 8.7% in the third quarter of 2021. The Rent-A-Center loss rate was 5.8%, in line with our expectations, but…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James.

Bobby Griffin

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to follow-up first on the Acima comments around 1Q. I think I heard you correctly, it’s GMV down similar to the 4Q trends, so call it, I guess, low 20s. The comparison starts to get easier, though in 1Q. So just curious why we shouldn’t see some type of maybe sequential recovery, I mean at least still down, but less down, given that we’re starting to lap minus 20% GMV growth throughout 2022?

Fahmi Karam

Analyst

Hey, Bob. Good morning. Thanks for the question. This is Fahmi. Yes, the comment was really there is going to be similar trends to the fourth quarter. I don’t expect it to be in the low or mid-20s. So it will be down year-over-year. But you’re right. We started making some changes in underwriting in the first part of the first quarter of 2022. It didn’t take full effect at the beginning of the quarter, but it will be down, I’ll call it, mid-teens in the first quarter year-over-year despite some of the changes that we made last year.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst

Yes. So you have some – good morning, Bobby. Mitch here. You have some of those – the comps start to change. So it will be down less, but still be down, I think, was the point of the comment. And then as Fahmi mentioned also in his prepared comments as we go through the year, third and fourth quarters when we would see it being back in a positive territory. So it’s kind of like a – yes, it gets better a little bit each quarter along the way, the negative mid-teens that we set in the first quarter and then by third and fourth quarter, we’re in a positive territory.

Bobby Griffin

Analyst

Okay, that’s helpful. And I guess, secondly, Mitch, on the sourcing of products, have you started to see some break in the cost? Because I kind of have a view that inflation basically priced out this consumer, your target consumer base, even if they needed some of these durable products, just given that you had a pass through the massive level of inflation we’ve seen across all kind of durable products. Are you starting to see breaks in sourcing where you can lower kind of the rental prices to customers? And is that starting to move demand in certain categories where that actually happened?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst

Yes. I think absolutely, it has. We’re back to – of course, they went up a lot. We’re back to deflationary times when it comes to electronics. Electronics have been deflationary for so many years. So they come out with some newest starts deflating from day 1. Of course, that changed for a couple of years during the pandemic, but we’re back to things dropping down now in electronics. Really, all categories have had to drop some more severe than others. We’ve even seen some furniture pricing reductions, quite honestly, not so much in appliances yet, but electronics and furniture, for sure. So yes, I think we’re seeing some of that deflation that will help our business in 2023.

Bobby Griffin

Analyst

Okay. And then, I guess, lastly for me, just on the leverage side of things. I understand kind of what the game plan is for 2023. But on a multiyear basis, should we think about share repurchases turned off until we get closer to the target? Or would you still look at it even if you’re above target if you know there is excess cash or just any kind of decision like that?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst

Yes. I wouldn’t say they are turned off. They are going to be opportunistic in nature. We’re very focused on, as I mentioned, maintaining our leverage ratio to kind of flat to slightly up this year given the pressure on EBITDA. We paid over $200 million of debt in 2022. And I don’t think we will be able to get to that level in 2023, just given the drop in free cash flow year-over-year. But our focus is to maintain that leverage ratio around where we ended the year. So paying down that debt is still a top priority.

Bobby Griffin

Analyst

Thank you. I appreciate all the detail. Best of luck this year.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst

Thanks, Bobby.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America.

Jason Haas

Analyst · Bank of America.

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to follow-up on that, on the Acima GMV, what gives you the confidence that you will see an acceleration and get back to positive by the second half of the year? Because I don’t think the compare is at least on a 1-year basis. I don’t think they eased that much through the year. I’m not sure if you’re looking on like a multiyear basis, if that’s the case, or if there is anything else that we should just be aware of to get some confidence that we will see that acceleration?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes. I think because of the comps we’re going over and even though you’re right, 2022 was pretty flat. But when you look at multiple years, of course, 2022 had different times of the year, we’re tightening the underwriting so that kind of flattened things out. But in other years, you’ll see the fourth quarter certainly trend up from a seasonality standpoint. So we put multiple years in there, Jason. We see – we trend it conservatively still trend our GMV, but we could do it based on multiple years. The way the comps come out, you end up with some positive and they are not going to be huge positive numbers in the third and fourth quarter, but we will be low to mid-single digits is what we believe.

Jason Haas

Analyst · Bank of America.

Got it. That’s great. That makes sense. And then as a follow-up, I was curious, Mitch, if you could talk about – it sounds like you’re not really seeing much benefit from credit tightening yet. I’m curious when you expect that might happen? And when we do see that, do you think it will benefit the Acima segment more or the Rent-A-Center segment more?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes, good question. We’ve seen a little of it. And I think we said in the comments that we – in recent trends, it just hasn’t been significant yet, certainly not like past cycles downturns where it was almost immediate. But because the unemployment rate and it’s remaining so strong, we haven’t seen much. We’ve seen a little bit depends on the retail partner. When we look at some of our larger ones, it depends on how the retail partner is willing or not willing to pay fees to the lenders above us to – because they’ll have to pay more merchant fees as interest rates goes up and things like that. So – but we are seeing a little, certainly, nothing large yet. Our vintage scores coming in, like especially the top 10% of our scores are showing a little bit of an increase. Like at Acima, we haven’t loosened underwriting at all and our approval rates are up a point or 2, which means a little different customers coming in. So we’re seeing a little. We don’t have any of it in our forecast for this year. So that’s all upside for us in 2023. And the second part of your question, yes, I think Acima will see it more noticeably, presuming it does get to a significant level in 2023. Just because – I mean, Rent-A-Center is pretty consistent anyhow. They just don’t have the volatility in their portfolio that Acima does. And it’s not directly aligned with lenders above us. It’s not like a waterfall business when people go in to rent a center. So yes, I think Acima would see more of it than Rent-A-Center.

Jason Haas

Analyst · Bank of America.

Great. Thank you. And if I could squeeze one more question. I was curious if you look by category, if there is anything performing noticeably better or worse than others by like furniture and mattresses versus consumer electronics and other categories, I guess, both in Rent-A-Center and the Acima business?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes. I think the items – I think, Jason, it comes down to the items, the big pull forward in ‘20 and ‘21 was really in the furniture space. Other things not as much, certainly laptop, computers were pull forward as people start working from home. But other things, there wasn’t really a pull forward in appliances, people then just replace their appliances because they are home more. That’s more of a replace whey they break, at least for our customer. So the real pull forward was in furniture. You look at some other categories where Acima’s bigger like wheel and tyre where there wasn’t a pull forward. And we’re not seeing weakness in that compared to furniture. So it’s really furniture stands by itself when it comes – in our business when it comes to a pull-forward comment, furniture really stands alone.

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · Bank of America.

And our mix at Acima has also shifted, going back to the earlier comment that gives us confidence that we can grow throughout the years is our ability to kind of shift the product categories that we do. So we talked about Acima being down from a GMV standpoint, on 23%. But if you look at jewelry and electronics and auto, as Mitch mentioned, those are only down 5% year-over-year. So the mix shift also helps.

Jason Haas

Analyst · Bank of America.

Got it. That makes sense. Thank you.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Bank of America.

Thanks, Jason.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst · Stephens.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So nice brand name changed and look forward to the Investor Day. So just maybe wanted to touch on that, if there is any, in addition to the brand name changed, any strategic changes or shifts that you might be seeing as part of that? Thank you.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Stephens.

Sure. Good morning. Vincent, I think it’s a few things. We mentioned the new products that this kind of paves away from a strategic standpoint. And when we say new products, we’re talking about loan products you know some of our competition already has a loan product out there to go along with the lease on product to move up a little bit. So we’re looking at those kind of products as we move up in the credit and loan products at the point of sale. That’s certainly part of the strategy. We’re in the early stages of looking at that. But again, that’s certainly part of the strategy. The way sharing best practices and a shared service model where – not like we’re adding a whole bunch of people in the shared service model, just moving some deckchairs around and where we can create shared services for both the big segments add a third segment here down the road in the lending products that I mentioned. So – but it’s really that those products, the shared services, the sharing of data that can really make an impact from an underwriting and a marketing standpoint, collections as well, Rent-A-Center helping collect and pick up a lot more on the Acima front. So it’s a matter of – there is been some – quite a bit of integration in the last year anyhow, and the companies are really starting to work well together. And we just thought it was the right time for us to do the – build the holding company route where it’s, like I said, shared services, best practices and those kind of things and really feed off each other and be able to set the strategy at the Upbound level, which would be taking advantage of those best practices synergies, certainly some synergies to be gotten as we do this along the way. Nothing in our model, in our financial forecast, but we think there are some synergies down the road as we look at this. And we are really excited about getting into some new products.

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · Stephens.

Yes. Maybe, Vincent, I will add to that a little bit. We are – as part of the strategy, we are still in the early stages of evaluating and assessing it, especially around our approach and timing, and we will be able to update you more on Investor Day. We know it’s an opportunity for us. We have millions of customers that we have dealt with, that we have payment history with, so the ability to kind of monetize our customer database and help them kind of move upward in their financial journey. If you think about who our core customers are, they typically either have bad credit or no credit and are not able to get some of those typical lending products. But for us, we actually have history with them. We have payment history, and we have the data behind it to be able to potentially offer them those types of products. And then the second piece, as Mitch said, the point-of-sale. We think our merchant partners, especially on the small and medium-sized businesses will really get a lot of traction with that. It drives incremental sales. And honestly, it makes us stickier with them on the LTO side as well. So, definitely feel like it’s an opportunity for us. We will have more for you as we progress through the year.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst · Stephens.

Okay. Great. That’s very helpful. Thank you for that. And just second, following up on the GMV discussion, I am just wondering if there is other changes that need to happen for the GMV improvement, or is it just comps, for example, thinking about your approval rates or on the Acima side, if more merchant engagement needs to happen? Just sort of what are you assuming as GMV improves throughout the year? Thank you.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Stephens.

Yes, good question. We are not assuming any large enterprise accounts, although that’s certainly always an opportunity as we have built that team out, not as a direct answer to your question, I will get back to that, but Mike Bagull joined us about six months ago is building out that team. We are starting to see much better conversations at that highest level from an enterprise standpoint. So, we are excited about where we are going with that. But in the way Acima has always grown the core business, I mean we did – we do have more active merchants now than we had a year ago. So, we are growing from that standpoint. We think we can target from a strategic standpoint. I mentioned Tyler Montrone now in charge to Acima, believes we can target better to get more GMV out of the merchants that are – the ones that are giving us GMV now like more of a targeted approach than merchants [ph] approach, not that we won’t be adding a lot of merchants, but just the ones we already have, how do we target more out of certain ones and so forth, and those kind of things. So, it’s more of a targeted strategy on the SMB. Of course, the enterprise strategy, I have mentioned. But I think it’s a targeted strategy from a sales standpoint. And we have got momentum from that standpoint also. It’s not like we have lost merchants. So, our merchant base, even though we are sitting at minus 20 for GMV in 2022, our merchant base grew. Of course, with all that pull forward in furniture, it’s under a lot of pressure to actually grow GMV, but the merchant base is still growing. So, that’s probably the biggest part of the answer, Vincent, is the merchant base is still growing.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst · Stephens.

Okay, that makes sense. And just is there kind of any change to the approval rates or any assumptions there? Thank you.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Stephens.

No, just more – I mean more of the same as far as the customer. We are not assuming that things get better where we will be able to improve a higher percentage or so point that I mentioned approval rates have ticked up slightly the last couple of months, but that’s without changing the underwriting, that’s really where we are starting to see probably just at least a little bit of trade down. But no, we are not assuming that we will be able to loosen that would be a tailwind. Obviously, a headwind if we had to tighten more. But we are not assuming the customer behavior changes in 2023.

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · Stephens.

We have done a lot, Vincent, over the year to really dig into our decision engine, understand our data better as we kind of had really high losses in the first part of the year. We had to look at it at a very granular level, whether it’s by product category or by channel or even at the merchant level to really try to optimize our approval rates and our conversion rates. And so we are going to continuously look to tweak those and try to get as much GMV and penetrate those good merchants as we can. So, it’s hard to look at just approval rates because the strategy changes across 25,000, 30,000 merchants.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Stephens.

Yes. When you look at those past due and lost charts that are in the presentation, I don’t know if you have looked at the presentation, Vincent, if it’s in front of you or not. But on the Acima side, as bad as those had gotten in late 2021 and early 2022, it’s really impressive how fast the team, Aaron Allred, obviously, we had him come back and work on – Aaron and Tyler basically, how fast – and a gentleman by the name of Stewart, those three guys, the way they brought down those losses and past due numbers as quickly as they did. And now we got loss numbers as well as the third, lowest since mid-2021. So, certainly proved we can do it and learned a lot as Fahmi anything on the Rent-A-Center side with that underwriting team, the – as soon as you look at those past due numbers during the presentation, it jumped in July, and now we are back down already, already back down below July and of course, we got tax season coming. So, we proved – we learned a lot. We are better today than before that happened to us in both segments. So, that’s the brightness of the future.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst · Stephens.

Very helpful. Thanks so much.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Stephens.

Thanks Vincent.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Brad Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Hi. Good morning. I just want to follow-up on, I think the last topic of the losses, the skip/stolen. Can you talk a little bit more about expectations here for the full year and the ranges that you are targeting for the two larger segments?

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Sure. So obviously, we just talked about Acima’s coming down almost 300 basis points year-over-year. So, it’s kind of back into our range. The virtual side of the business at 8% for the quarter, that’s at the high end, but within our range for that business. And so guiding on a combined Acima segment in that 9% to 9.5% range, very similar to where we ended the fourth quarter is where we expect it to be. And then on the Rent-A-Center side, obviously, the 5.8% in the fourth quarter was higher than what we would like to see. It’s much higher than our target levels, but consistent with our forecast. Throughout the year, we expect that to trend down. So, first quarter will still be a little bit elevated, it will be better sequentially, but will still be elevated compared to historical trends and then end the year kind of in that 4.5% range. And if things go well and the macro gets a little bit better, maybe we can drive it a little bit further than 4.5%. But the guidance we gave gets it to the 4.5% on the Rent-A-Center side.

Brad Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Really helpful. Thanks Fahmi. And then maybe, Mitch, I just wanted to ask a question about the Rent-A-Center store business. The segment is coming off of, I think three really good years for revenues and still running at profitability that most retailers would kill to have. But as you face perhaps a tougher revenue outlook going forward, can you talk a little bit about the store portfolio and what you think the right number of stores is and how you might want to invest in and evolve that portfolio going forward?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Yes. Good question, Brad. I think we are very comfortable where the store count is today. We think there are some opportunities down the road. We have mentioned in the past calls, we are testing some smaller footprint. We think we can cover the country and cover a lot of our business, as we mentioned, coming from e-com are in the 25% range. But the stores are still the fulfillment center for that. So, we are comfortable with the account we have now probably could do it in less square footage on average. So, we are testing some of that using technology in the stores to search categories versus having to have as much showroom space and so forth. So, we are going to be able to, over the next 5 years, bring down the cost of real estate, I believe. But the store count itself will stay about the same. We are still running 15% higher than 2019 portfolio levels on a per store basis or even on an overall basis when you back out some of the stores we sold to – we basically sold California in 2020 to a large franchisee, so. But 15% growth, we think we are – we can finish this year at or above where we are now. So, it doesn’t go lower from here to go lower in the course of the year, but we see – we really see 2023 as a trough year for Rent-A-Center and for Acima for that matter, although Acima’s EBITDA won’t be much off 2022s, but a trough year overall, and especially at Rent-A-Center. So, the store count won’t change a whole lot. We don’t believe going forward, we have some opportunities from an overall square footage standpoint. But I think we are getting as low as we believe it’s going to get. Again, when you think about year-end numbers, so it will get lower this coming next few weeks and months with income tax refunds, we lose some portfolio and then build it back, especially as we go into the fourth quarter. But we expect to finish this year from a portfolio standpoint, at least flat with where we started the year and therefore maintain that 15% growth over 2019 levels, pre-pandemic levels.

Brad Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Great. We have talked about kind of tax refund season, it comes in a couple of questions. I think the early data would suggest that the average refunds are down kind of double digits from a year ago, any particular view on how tax season will play out and implications perhaps for your business?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Yes. Those – yes, I think you know Brad, I have done this a long time. I don’t get too wrapped up in some of those numbers that come out because they are not necessarily related to our consumer. So, I don’t know that the consumer at the $35,000 to $40,000 income range is having 10% to 12% lower refunds or not. I know that those are the overall numbers. We will know soon enough. We will know in the next couple of weeks when it comes to what we are seeing in the business. So, yes, the good news there, Brad, is if there is less money, there will be less payouts. The portfolio actually maintains – might maintain better than we anticipate. On the other hand, when there is a good income tax season, I mean we have put a lot new business on the books, too. So, it’s they tend to – well, the portfolio still goes down. They don’t balance up. We don’t do enough new business for the portfolio not to go down at all. It does go down during tax season, but the money is good and the payouts, especially on the Rent-A-Center side, we still make good margins on those. So, if there is a few less payouts, that will be good for the portfolio. So, we are not really worried about it, whether it’s – if they are a little lower or not. I don’t know that they will be lower, but I don’t see how that’s going to be much of a negative for us. It could end up a positive for us if they are a little lower, especially on the Acima side, where we would – less payouts are really a good thing at Acima because we don’t make a heck of a lot on those early payouts unlike Rent-A-Center where we got the difference between wholesale and resale built in there where we are okay when there is those early payouts. So, we are not – whether there is a few less payouts or not, and I don’t think it’s going to matter a whole lot at the end of the day.

Brad Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Thanks Mitch.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Okay. Thanks.

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Thanks Brad.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst · Loop Capital.

Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. So, I know it’s probably a bit difficult to parse out, but as you think about the 23% GMV decline in Acima last year, how much of that was you proactively tightening credit as opposed to sort of the pullback in demand at your retail partners, because it sounds like, at least from a doors perspective, you guys had a pretty good year. So, how do you sort of think about that?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Loop Capital.

Yes. I will start and Fahmi, you can chime in. We did have a pretty good year from a doors count standpoint, but each location was less productive, especially the furniture locations. Even where there wasn’t a pullback like Fahmi was talking about on the auto space or even the jewelry space, where there wasn’t much of a pull forward in ‘20 or ‘21. We are still down in the mid to high-single digits just based on – if you say that’s underwriting, you are somewhere in the half and half range as far as traffic at the retail partner versus underwriting. Maybe it’s a little more on the traffic side than it is underwriting. But there is somewhere 50-50 as far as the reasons for it.

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · Loop Capital.

Yes. And I would add to that, it’s also average ticket size in our product mix also is part of the GMV calculation. So, average ticket sizes have trended down throughout the year, especially year-over-year.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Loop Capital.

Because of the mix…

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · Loop Capital.

And the mix also has trended down. So, Anthony, it’s tough to kind of parse out, as you said. It’s a combination of all those three things. But if we had to rank it, I do think traffic is probably at the top of the list.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst · Loop Capital.

Got it. And then just one quick follow-up, from a credit underwriting perspective, I mean have you sort of stabilized that? Like are you tightening at all? Are you losing it all? I am thinking more kind of sequentially.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Loop Capital.

I would say, yes, all of the above, Anthony. We are continuously kind of trying to optimize and drive higher yield, better performance and then ultimately get to a better EBITDA number. So, it kind of depends. Your question is have we bottomed out. It depends on your view of the recession. There is a lot of conflicting signals on where we were going. We feel good that if we see early indications of risk in certain segments, we have the ability now to adjust pretty quickly at a very granular level, so good around losses, the question will become how much GMV do we lose if we have to tighten. So, it’s more around demand, portfolio size than it is the overall loss rate just given the fact that we have been able to decrease in such a short period of time.

Fahmi Karam

Analyst · Loop Capital.

And I had mentioned, Anthony, that the – not seeing any significant trade down yet, but we think we are starting to see a little of it. Our approval rates are actually – have actually gone up but a hair on the Acima side without loosening underwriting, which means there is a little bit different customer at least coming into the mix. So, we look at our vintage scores and they are, I mentioned earlier, at least the top 10% we are seeing differences in the score. So, I think if you see some trade down, then that naturally moves the approval rates up a little bit without – because of a better customer for us coming into the funnel, a more creditworthy customer, I should say, coming into the funnel. And that can – that helps – that can help the approval rate even with us not changing underwriting.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst · Loop Capital.

Got it. Thank you. That’s helpful.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Loop Capital.

Thanks Anthony.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Fuhrman with Craig-Hallum.

Alex Fuhrman

Analyst · Craig-Hallum.

Hey guys. Thanks very much for taking my question. It sounds like furniture and to some extent, laptop computers were really the big driver of demand in 2021 and is now creating some tough comparisons. As you look at this being the trough year, what do you think is going to really be the category that helps to drive demand to lead you out of that trough year? Do you think furniture is likely to reaccelerate, or do you think it’s going to be more weighted towards appliances or other categories as you resume growth?

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Craig-Hallum.

Personally, I think it will be across all the categories. I think every quarter, we get farther away from the pull forward on furniture, it’s helpful, same with the laptops that I mentioned. There is – we have game systems on the Rent-A-Center side now that are helping with some of the new games that came out last year that there wasn’t great availability on, but now there is. So, electronics will help us. I think it will be a pretty widespread. I mean Acima is doing really well in the auto business, wheel and tyre specifically, jewelry, depending on the timing. It’s spotty, obviously, Valentine’s Day and Christmas and so forth. But I think it will be across all of them, just because I think the furniture category is it – hit bottom in 2022. So, I think the growth coming out, especially our exit growth velocity at the end of 2023 will be on all categories.

Alex Fuhrman

Analyst · Craig-Hallum.

Okay. That’s really helpful. Thanks Mitch.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst · Craig-Hallum.

Thanks Alex.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the call back to Mitch Fadel, CEO, for closing remarks.

Mitch Fadel

Analyst

Thank you, Liz and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in our company, and we look forward to talking with you more in the future about the exciting developments, the opportunities. Of course, we mentioned the Investor Day, May 24th, in New York City. And we will be talking to you before that on an earnings call, but put that on your calendar, and we look forward to updating you on our – the exciting developments and opportunities we see here at Upbound, formerly known as Rent-A-Center. So, have a great day, everyone.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.