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Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 2, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Rent-A-Center's Fourth Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, February 2, 2016. Your speakers today are Mr. Robert Davis, Chief Executive Officer of Rent-A-Center; Guy Constant, Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer; and Ms. Maureen Short, Senior Vice President – Finance, Investor Relations and Treasury. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Short. Please go ahead, ma'am. Maureen B. Short - SVP-Finance, Investor Relations & Treasury: Thank you, Sally. Good morning, everyone, and thank you, for joining us. Our earnings release was distributed after market close yesterday, which outlines our operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and year-end 2015. All related materials are available on our website at investor.rentacenter.com. As a reminder, some of the statements made on this call are forward-looking statements, which are subject to many factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Rent-A-Center undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. These factors are described in our earnings release issued yesterday, as well as, in the company's SEC filings. I'd now like to turn the conference call over to Robert. Robert? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Actually, we're going to have Guy just make a couple of comments first. Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Thank you, Robert, and good morning, everybody. Before Robert joins to walk you through our key areas of focus, I'd like to touch on the goodwill impairment that was taken in the quarter. As a result of our annual testing processes, we…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Budd Bugatch with Raymond James. Your line is open. David Joseph Vargas - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Good morning and thank you for taking my question. This is David on for Budd. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, David. David Joseph Vargas - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Just wondering if you could quantify what you think the impact of rolling out e-commerce next year is going to be and how much of an impact it will have on comp? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: The impact that we expect from e-commerce in 2016 is de minimis, it's minimal. Our expected rollout of that will be primarily a cash utilization for CapEx, as Guy mentioned, but in terms of top line impact, very minimal, but supporting our longer-term goal of flat same-store sales in the quarter. David Joseph Vargas - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Okay, great. And second, you've been doing a good job of taking down labor expense year-over-year and I'm just wondering can you provide a little detail on how you expect to continue to leverage labor going forward? And also where you are in the transition to a flexible labor model and what are the next steps there? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Look, David, about 85% of our Core stores have now triggered the flexible labor model, which means that the introduction of part-time labor has occurred in those stores. Although we're still in the early innings of realizing the full extent of the savings, because in addition to getting the part-time labor in place, we need to also transition through attrition from full-time coworkers that have overtime today to those…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of J.R. Bizzell with Stephens, Inc. Your line is open.

J.R. Bizzell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc. Your line is open.

Yes, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, J.R. Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Good morning, J.R.

J.R. Bizzell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc. Your line is open.

Building on kind of the A Now here, the Acceptance Now, just wondering, if you could give us a kind of a 30,000-foot view of what you're seeing in the competitive environment, because I think you alluded to that in the prepared remarks. And just wondering, how you're thinking about competition on a go-forward basis? I know you've implemented the new team to go out and extend that pipeline. So just give us an idea what you're seeing, how you're thinking about the pipeline on a go-forward basis? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: So, J.R., as Robert mentioned in his comments, there's a lot of opportunity we believe still in the marketplace to bring on new retailers that don't have the rent-to-own option in their stores today. And so that's a big part of why we're stepping up our capabilities around trying to bring on new retailers and growing our staff location model. But at the end of the day, we still think we have the best model in the space by a long shot in order to help retailers save sales. I think the data is definitive in that regard. We save more sales for our retailers than any other competitor by some significant number of multiple. So we think once we can make that case to those retailers that don't have the option in their stores today, we will be able to get some pretty significant traction in that regard. In terms of the competitive landscape, I think you're really seeing the onset of technology introduction into the space, not just by us but by other competitors as well. Retailers are seeking it, whether those are the credit cascades or waterfalls, so to speak, that make the customer experience better in store to the progress we've made on being on the e-commerce sites of our particular competitors as an additional way to save sales for the retailers and to drive traffic into their stores. That's probably the area where we've seen the biggest amount of change and we would expect that to continue. So the work we've done around, as I said, e-commerce, our associated web portal inside the stores, having the cascades, improve the customer experience, the decision engine work that we've done, we've made a lot of progress on the technology front in the last year-and-a-half and expect to do so in the future.

J.R. Bizzell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc. Your line is open.

So, Guy, kind of building on that, maybe even for Robert as well, with that technology build and the direct model, how are you all thinking about the pipeline for 2016 when it comes to the Acceptance Now platform? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, as I alluded to in my opening comments, we have over 500 direct locations now, so unstaffed, and opened those in the back half of 2015. We would expect to open a similar number but more likely in the back half of this year in 2016. Our focus with the increased capabilities of the commercial organization that we're standing up, is going to shift our focus back into the manned locations and so the pipeline, we believe, remains strong. Last year we opened fewer staffed locations than we anticipate opening this year. So, as Guy alluded to, the model, the high-service model of the manned locations we believe is really where we operate and execute the best from a retail partner relationship perspective and the results that are forthcoming from that. So there will be a combination of both manned and direct, but with a bigger emphasis on manned this year than we had last year.

J.R. Bizzell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc. Your line is open.

Great. And I promise last one for me. What was the percent of sales that was made up by the 90-day buyout option and the Acceptance Now platform? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: It had been tracking in the mid-30%s or so, J.R., and it dropped into the low-30%s in the fourth quarter, if you looked at it on a year-over-year basis. So that as well as some of the work we've done on improving the economics of the transaction resulted in a pretty sharp increase in gross margins that you saw in the fourth quarter.

J.R. Bizzell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc. Your line is open.

And if I can, building on that, you saw a decrease in that percentage. Was that a result of the underwriting model that you all kind of put into place to kind of reduce it? So was that in a positive way self-inflicted or was it that you saw the customer not opting for that option in the quarter? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: I think it's probably a combination of both. We obviously want to make sure that our sales are profitable. I think we've certainly heard the feedback not only just internally but the investment community about driving sales growth, but at very low profit levels. So we want to make sure that our focus in our business is going to be on profitable sales. But at the same time, I think you probably saw a little bit of seasonality of how people utilize the cash options within the store as well. In addition to the fact that we're now starting to get to the point and will be by the end of this quarter where we've fully lapped that rollout.

J.R. Bizzell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, J.R.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Bradley B. Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Yes, hi. Good morning, Robert, Guy and Maureen, how are you? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Good, Brad. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good, Brad.

Bradley B. Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Good. A couple of questions, if I could. Just as we think about 2016 as a whole and you think about the different cost savings opportunities, could you maybe quantify for us how much you're expecting from labor and sourcing specifically? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Well, we've laid out previously, Brad, what we think those overall savings could be. The sourcing project, as you know, we've already banked the cash savings and you started to see a little bit of that improvement in gross margins in the fourth quarter we had been tracking in the, call it, down 150 basis points to down 200 basis points range and now we're down less than 100 basis points in gross margin in the fourth quarter, and we would expect, as I said in my comments, over the coming months to see that turn flat and then even positive in the Core business. And that simply will be the materialization of the savings that we've already got on a cash basis as the products enter into the portfolio. On the labor side, we still think the opportunity from eliminating (35:24) the overtime premium's between $20 million and $25 million, and then we think there can be even more after that fact through our ability to flex the labor. But beyond that, no, we wouldn't want to quantify what that will be for 2016.

Bradley B. Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay, great. And then on smartphones, I apologize if I missed it, but could you give us the percentage of sales in the fourth quarter from smartphones, and then just as we think about phones in 2016, given some of the changes in the assortment that you've made, what does that mean for the impact to revenues and profitability? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Well, we've now essentially fully lapped the rollout of smartphones. So it was about 8.5% in the fourth quarter this year and it was a little over 8%, if you incorporate all the rentals and fees associated with smartphones a year ago. So we shouldn't see any further lapping going forward of smartphones as a result. I think in terms of the changes we've made to the product category, for competitive reasons, we wouldn't want to get into specifics about what we think that means for percent of revenues or what we think it will do with margins.

Bradley B. Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Got you. Okay. And then just a couple of questions about this current quarter, if I heard you right I think you said that you're expecting the first quarter earnings to be down 20% year over year. I just want to make sure I heard you right, and any more color that you might be able to provide on why that's the expectation for the first quarter? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Yes, that's correct, we expect the EPS to be down more than 20%. It's basically related to revenues in the Core business that we think will come in between $575 million and $590 million. What we've seen, as we have tested the rollout of our new point-of-sales system, is we see a pretty short-term impact, just given the activity associated with putting a new point-of-sales system in the stores. Very quickly the stores get up to speed and we end up with a better point-of-sales system that allows them to be more efficient, to process transactions quicker and to deal with customers better. But as with any change of that significance in the store, you do get a little bit of a short-term impact. So as we roll that out in full force here in the first quarter, we would expect to see a little bit of impact to revenue which would go away then in the back half of the year.

Bradley B. Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Got you. And at what point will the POS be in all stores? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: It should be done near the end of the first quarter, start of the second quarter.

Bradley B. Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Got you. And then just a last near-term question, I know it's pretty early. But as you think about tax refund season, how are you forecasting that, and any impact in particular that you might be modeling from changes in the Affordable Care Act? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: We're not modeling any differences right now. We would expect to see, as we do typically in this first quarter, a higher level of merchandise sales than we do in other quarters. It will be interesting to see what that impact will have. It may result in not quite as many dollars in our customers' pockets as might have existed previously, which in our business would typically mean items would stay on rent longer, which actually at the end of the day is a more profitable transaction for us. But without knowing exactly what that impact could be, we haven't modeled anything different than what we've seen in past years.

Bradley B. Thomas - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

All right, great. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: All right. Thanks, Brad. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Brad.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Baugh with Stifel. Your line is open. John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Thank you for taking my questions, and also thank you for all the clarity and color you give, both in the Q and on the call. Could you touch on two comments I think that were made during the call? One was maybe a little deeper dive on the depreciation schedule change. I think you mentioned that in relation to smartphones. Describe that, and is there a term change or any change on the pricing as well or is there just depreciation? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Hey, John, this is Guy. Yeah, on the depreciation schedule, we're going to have shorter depreciation schedules, schedules that are more in line with what we think the true effective life of the phone is. As you know that's changed a lot over the last year to just given what's happened in the marketplace with phones, and the fact that they tend to be traded in sooner for newer models, and for a lot of reasons that had an impact on re-rental of older phones in our business or the sale of older phones in the third-party marketplace. And so, the best way for us to deal with that is to run shorter depreciation schedules on those phones to lessen the likelihood that we're in a position with a write-down. As for pricing and terms, competitively it doesn't make sense for us to talk about that specifically. John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then also, there was a mention, I believe this was in context of the Core business, of a "refined" pricing action, any color there? Guy J. Constant…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Chukumba with BB&T Capital Markets. Your line is open. Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - BB&T Capital Markets: Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Good morning. Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - BB&T Capital Markets: Hey. I had a couple of questions. I guess the first question I had and pardon me, if I missed this during your prepared remarks. But could you just give us a sense for what your expectation is, in terms of net new store openings in the Core U.S. business for fiscal year 2016? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So as you are aware, Anthony, we've not been opening stores as of late and we do not anticipate opening any new locations in 2016 in the Core. In fact, our store rationalization that we've gone through the last couple of years, we will continue to ensure that our fleet of stores, our asset base are delivering the right returns and providing the expected results. So no new store growth anticipated in the Core. Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. Can you give us any sense for, in terms of store rationalization like how many stores we should expect to close in fiscal year 2016? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: No, I mean you've seen us historically as leases come up for renewal, close a dozen or so a quarter or maybe 30 stores or 40 stores a year necessarily. Other than the two larger opportunities that we had the last couple of years, we are still mindful of our need to ensure our asset base is performing optimally. But we're not going to get into specifics in…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carla Casella with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Carla M. Casella - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Hi. I think I just missed the figure on how much of your revolver is drawn. I was also wondering the balance on the bonds as well. Did you pay anymore bonds during the quarter? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: No, Carla. We did not pay down any further bonds in the quarter. And as for the revolver, we're drawn $190 million on the revolver, so about $390 million of availability.

Carla M. Casella - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Okay. So, the bonds are $293 million or so. You bought back $7 million I think in the third quarter? Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Yeah. It's $292 million and change, yes.

Carla M. Casella - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Okay, great. That's all I had. Thanks. Guy J. Constant - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & EVP-Finance: Thank you. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of William Reuter with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

William Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Good morning guys. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

William Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

My first question is, you guys were talking about the POS rollout and you've kind of talked about that there could be a little bit of disruption. I guess is this due to additional costs or are you assuming that the rollout has challenges such that you actually missed some sales due to that? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We tested in 385 locations now, so pretty substantial test. So, we have a very good knowledge of what we see in terms of the impact for the stores. We've done numerous upgrades and additions to the system through the testing process that's improved any of the areas where we're seeing challenges. Now the commentary is more around just the change that occurs, when you are asking people that are operating the point-of-sales system every day to change what they're doing. Even though it's much more intuitive and much easier to use than the old system one, there will be a period of change and so that distraction that we see for a fairly short period of time is what we've factored into the commentary around first quarter revenue.

William Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Okay. And then secondarily, you guys have set up a target for $20 million to $25 million of cost savings. Can you tell me how much you guys achieved in 2015 thus far, thus what would be the difference on a year-over-year basis in 2016? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So William, I am assuming you are speaking specifically to the labor model because obviously our projected cost savings are much larger than that across multiple lines. But in terms of the labor model savings, I would say we're about 20% of the way there on the savings so far that we expect towards the $20 million to $25 million goal.

William Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Okay. And then just lastly for me, I'm curious whether you guys – if you guys – you guys talked about increased competition on the Acceptance Now. Are there customers, meaningful customers you guys have lost and if so when you did lose them, kind of what the reason that they chose to leave you guys and go to another competitor was? Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We have not lost any significant business in terms of our retail relationships as a result of the competitive landscape. So, no, nothing in that regard. However, just the commoditization of the pricing elements that Guy alluded to earlier, does create an heightened intensity around what's being offered today and so retail partners obviously have options for saving sales in their business. We believe our model is the industry leading model in terms of helping them to save sales, but nevertheless, those conversations do take place when other competitors introduce certain offerings like 90-day cash option, it certainly enters into the conversation with our retail partners, but we have not lost any significant accounts as a result of the competitive landscape.

William Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Great. I will turn it over to others. Thank you. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Davis. Robert Dale Davis - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Sally. And thank you everyone for joining us. Certainly, as I mentioned in my prepared comments, we are making progress in a number of fronts. But we are not satisfied with our overall results and we look forward to making continued progress in 2016, reporting back to you in the next quarter. So thank you for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation today. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.