Earnings Labs

Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 3, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Uniti Group's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. My name is Gigi and I will be your operator for today. A webcast of this call will be available on the company's website, www.uniti.com, beginning today, and will remain available for 14 days. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Forward-looking statements disclaimer. The company would like to remind you that today's remarks include forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected in these statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in the company's filings with the SEC. The company's remarks this morning will reference slides posted on its website, and you are encouraged to refer to those materials during the call. Discussions during this call will also include certain financial measures that were not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Reconciliation of those non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K dated today. I would now like to turn the call over to Uniti Group's Chief Executive Officer, Kenny Gunderman. Please go ahead, Mr. Gunderman.

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning everyone. Starting on slide three. Our results for the third quarter were once again strong as the demand for our mission-critical fiber infrastructure continues to grow. We achieved our sixth consecutive quarter of elevated new sales bookings, which we now consider the new norm. As importantly, we also had another strong quarter of gross install activity with a mean time to deliver of less than 100 days. Consistent bookings balanced between anchor and lease-up along with installs that can be turned up quickly and our industry-leading monthly churn of 0.2% demonstrate that our strategy is sound and that we're executing on it well. To reiterate, our strategy continues to focus on buying and building mission-critical fiber infrastructure and then leasing infrastructure to anchor customers in the 5% to 10% cash yield range and additional lease-up customers, driving cumulative cash yields above 10%. This strategy has resulted in Uniti becoming the second largest independent fiber operator in the country with 134,000 route miles and a long runway for profitable growth. As slide four demonstrates Uniti continues to track well on these shared infrastructure economics. We're building new fiber largely for our wireless customers and then successfully adding additional tenants with very high margins and minimal CapEx, resulting in a cumulative cash flow yield today of 22%, a more than threefold increase from the anchor yield on these projects. Slide five illustrates that the majority of new bookings continue to be lease-up in nature and along with our intentional focus of balancing wholesale, non-wholesale and anchor lease-up opportunities has resulted in outsized margin enhancement, AFFO growth and a business that remains relatively immune to swings in the economy. Turning to slide six. High capacity long-haul routes are needed by all of our customers, including wireless carriers, hyperscalers, international…

Paul Bullington

Analyst

Thank you, Kenny and good morning, everyone. We are once again pleased with how our businesses performed during the quarter with robust booking and install levels driving in line consolidated revenue and better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA. While non-recurring revenue at Uniti Fiber was lower than expected during the quarter, recurring revenue, both at Uniti Fiber and Uniti Leasing was strong. Uniti remains well positioned to weather current macroeconomic conditions, given our robust level of long-term revenues under contract, our declining capital intensity and the work we have done to strengthen our balance sheet and push out our debt maturities. As a result of the strength of the quarter and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we are increasing the midpoint of our 2022 outlook for consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Please turn to slide nine, and I'll start with comments on our third quarter. We reported consolidated revenues of $283 million, consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $225 million. AFFO attributed to common shares of $112 million, and AFFO per diluted common share of $0.43. Net loss attributable to common shares for the quarter was approximately $156 million or $0.66 per diluted share, which includes a $216 million goodwill impairment charge related to our Uniti Fiber segment that was driven by an increase in the macro interest rate environment. At Uniti Leasing, we reported segment revenues of $209 million and adjusted EBITDA of $203 million, both of which were up 5% from the prior year. Accordingly, Uniti Leasing achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 97% for the quarter. Turning to slide 10. Our growth capital investment program continues to provide positive results for Uniti. Over the past six years, our tenant has invested approximately $1 billion of tenant capital improvements in our network. Uniti continues to invest its own capital in long-term value-accretive…

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Thanks Paul. We continue to believe that our core business will likely see little to no noticeable impact from any economic downturn given the mission-critical nature of broadband. Further, the vast majority of our revenue is wholesale in nature with long-term contracts. Lastly, 95% of our debt is fixed rate, and we have no significant near-term maturities. So as it relates to potential debt refinancing and M&A, we have the ability to be patient. Our strategy since 2015 has been to acquire and build mission-critical communications infrastructure and then lease that infrastructure to quality anchor customers with a clear path to lease-up, resulting in combined cash yields of 10% plus. While in our early years, our priority was more focused on acquiring rather than building as we established our national fiber platform. We're now much more focused on building given the attractive returns we're seeing in the challenging economic and capital markets backdrop. We believe our strategy is working, and the initial investments both in M&A and greenfield builds are paying off. We currently have over $7 billion of revenue under contract with an average remaining term of approximately eight years. The majority of this revenue is passively managed in the form of triple net or dark fiber MLAs. As a result, the operating costs associated with this revenue is very predictable, which results in a cash flow-rich business over the mid to long-term. By 2030, we expect to have generated approximately $1.5 billion of cumulative free cash flow if we maintain our current dividend and approximate level of annual capital investment. This trajectory leads to substantial deleveraging, resulting in 2.5 to 3.5 times net leverage and more than doubling the size of our fiber business. Our network is highly underutilized, presenting profitable growth potential for some time. We expect net capital intensity to decline from our current level of approximately 35% to 5% to 10% by 2030 and is indicative of accelerating operating leverage in the business and many years of high margin and high yielding lease-up, including dark fiber, lighting unique long-haul routes and expanding deeper into our existing 300 metro markets. With that said, our cash rich MLAs provide great optionality to pay an increasing dividend and invest even more in our core business in lieu of paying down debt. Regardless of our capital allocation policy, our runway for organic growth appears long and fruitful, especially given strong industry tailwinds. With that, operator, we're now ready to take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of David Barden from Bank of America.

David Barden

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Appreciate it. Kenny, can you -- you've got a banking background. Can you talk a little bit about where we sit now with the sale-leaseback business where every incremental capital dollar you're putting to work kind of generates an 8% return day one, but your bonds are yielding 9% to 13%. Presumably, that's the cheapest part of your capital structure. Your equity is going to be more expensive. So your cost of capital is a lot higher than the yield that you're generating at the margin in this business. How do we think about resolving that as an investable thesis? And then just second on the fiber business itself. Again, the inevitable question is the transformational transaction out there that's going to unlock the value that you guys see in this fiber business. Is that practically doable in the current market climate, kind of with the rates going where they are and the recession coming? How do you convince people that that's still a thing that can be done?

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Good morning, David. Yeah. On your first question, I think you're right. I mean, generally, in the five -- you're right about part of what you said, generally in the -- our anchor yields, whether it's sale-leasebacks or greenfield builds or any other anchor type agreements are in the 5% to 10% range, as you mentioned, 8%. So that's kind of at the higher end of that range. That's been our -- part of our true north, if you will, for many years, kind of sticking to that range. But importantly, then through lease-up, you're getting well above 10% yields. And the second page in our materials consistently is where are we tracking on that. We're tracking at 22% cash yields as a result. So yeah, there are different projects that are at different stages of maturity along the way. But on an aggregate basis, our core business is returning 22% yields and frankly, those are going higher. And I see every day a dashboard of yields that are being generated from our CapEx and they're very attractive, 50%-plus yields. So, with respect to what could be a temporarily high interest rate environment, I agree with you, you're looking at high single digits, low double-digits in terms of some of the yields that are out there, but we're still hurdling those comfortably with our core business, and I don't see that changing. With respect to your second question, we're really trying to get away from this quarter-to-quarter play-by-play on M&A. It's just not constructive. But look, I do think that in these types I'll put the old bank or add back on in these types of environments, there's two, three different types of counterparties out there. One is those that just go into bunker mode and want to do nothing,…

David Barden

Analyst

Thanks Kenny. It make sense.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Williams from Cowen.

Gregory Williams

Analyst

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Just first one, you mentioned, Kenny, about expansion to eventually the 300 markets you're in. Do you have a sort of cadence on how many markets you'd expand per quarter or per year, that would be helpful. Second question is just if you're seeing any labor supply or inflation concerns on the business. Just in the last two days, we heard Lumen talk about slowing down on their fiber enablement to their homes. And the day before that, I think, consolidated, so the cost per home pass is coming up a little bit. I'm wondering if you're seeing that broadly or maybe more particularly in the Windstream fabric to the home space. Thanks.

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Good morning, Greg. I'll let Paul comment on some of the second part of the question. But on the first part, yeah, we're actively looking at all of our metro markets and prioritizing. I don't have something we're ready to roll out yet in terms of the cadence. I think probably in February, we'll have a little more color on that. But the reality is -- and part of the reason we picked one of our markets, in this case, Birmingham and showed some of the investment opportunity in that market, that's a terrific market for us. And it's right down the fairway for being a Tier 2 market, not a lot of competition there. We've been in there since 2017 with an anchor award, and we've been chipping away at enterprise market share now for four or five years, and we're still only at 5%. And we've got these just what I characterize as low-hanging fruit investment opportunities in those existing markets. So, we mentioned being able to expand into the Homewood neighborhood for less than $1 million. But the reality is that's -- when you really peel back the onion, it's spending a couple of hundred thousand dollars to expand the backbone and then the rest of that is just all success-based to light up new customers. So -- and the returns on that capital back to the earlier question, are just terrific. It's very high yielding returns without a lot of incremental OpEx, because we already have people on the ground there. We've got salespeople, operations people, et cetera. So, all that to say, the near-term opportunities for us on market expansion are building out existing markets as opposed to in the near-term at least, expanding into brand new markets. We have a robust fiber network in…

Paul Bullington

Analyst

Yeah. No, I agree with that comment, Kenny. I mean, it is obviously a very tight labor supply market out there. But in terms of our -- the construction of our network, the labor that we rely on to construct our network, we use primarily a contractor labor force to build that network. And we really have not seen to date any market increase in the costs we're paying for labor and our construction -- in the construction part of our business. And I contribute attribute that to a few things. One, we have a deep bench of contractors that are focused really primarily in one region in the Southeast. We have a really steady, consistent supply of work. And we have a very robust competitive bidding system for those -- for all of those jobs. And I think those factors together have helped to keep those costs stable for us, which doesn't mean that we're completely immune from rising labor costs there either. But to date, we really have not seen any material increase in the labor piece of the cost of construction.

Gregory Williams

Analyst

That’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Frank Louthan from Raymond James.

Frank Louthan

Analyst

Great. Thank you. So, pretty material downtick there in the quota-bearing heads. Where are you losing folks to? And do you think you can get that back up and maybe expand that? And is there any concern for the outlook for next year with the base going down that much?

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Yeah. Frank, no concern about next year. I think, again, the real takeaway from that is a positive one in the sense that we're still hitting our numbers because our existing reps are more productive, and we just have so much opportunity to monetize the network -- going back to some of the slides in our prepared remarks. With that said, yeah, we're very focused on getting that number higher. And look, if you go back in our history over the past couple, three years, we've always struggled to keep that number where we want it to be. And part of the reason for that is we're very -- our team is very selective on adding new reps. And once we get those reps on board, we're also very proactive about churning out reps who are not productive. I think our -- I can't remember exactly, but I think our churn rate is something like 20% on reps who aren't productive. So, we don't -- I don't consider it a problem or a leading indicator of a problem that, that number is lower. But at the same time, yeah, we're constantly looking to add new quality reps. We're always looking for ways to tweak our existing commission plan or compensation plan or otherwise in order to do that. But at the same time, we're not going to move away from the discipline and the rigor that we apply to holding those reps accountable and productive. And at the end of the day, I think if we wanted to just hit a number for a number of reps, we could do that, but that's not what we're going to do.

Frank Louthan

Analyst

Sure. Okay. And to follow-up on a previous question, is -- do you think Windstream is having any issues in getting trucks or equipment or so forth to hit their build plans? And any chance they would stretch their build plans out due to increased costs.

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

So, Frank, we have an opinion on that, but we're going to let them address that. I think they've got an earnings call coming up, so we'll let them address that directly.

Frank Louthan

Analyst

All right. Fair enough. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley.

Simon Flannery

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. Good morning. On the fiber business, I think, Kenny, you did talk about capital intensity coming down over time, but also you've got this nice backlog here. So, how should we think about near-term capital intensity, you're still over that 40% level this year? Is that going to come down to that sort of mid-30s you've talked about over the next year or two? And any update on DISH. I think you sort of said that they hope -- you hope that as the Sprint business came off that DISH would start to kick in, in 2023. Any updated clarity on what their plans are.

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Simon. Yeah, our capital intensity is going to come down. So, nothing new or no changes to any forward-looking guidance we've given there. I think the reality is -- I mean, part of what we're trying to show in some of our materials is just where our capital is being invested and how we're getting the good returns that we're getting. And as I said, the yields that we're getting on the capital is actually better than we've been forecasting. So, theoretically, we could spend less capital and get the same returns. And so, we're looking for ways to spend the capital -- always looking for ways to spend the capital more efficiently, get the highest returns. And so that's not going to change. But with respect to the trajectory of the capital intensity coming down, that isn't going to change. DISH continue to make great strides with DISH. When we first started talking about DISH and Sprint a couple of years ago, I think we said there would be some Sprint churn. I think we said it would probably be in the $5 million to $10 million recurring revenue range that we would lose and that we thought that DISH would eventually replace that and more. And in the meantime, there would be some pretty lumpy ETL fees to sort of smooth that transition. And in hindsight, I think that is playing out as we expected. The Sprint churn is on track with high ETLs this year, dropping off a little bit next year. And DISH has really been ramping up. And I think we will more than hurdle that $5 million to $10 million on this lost Sprint churn with DISH with the business that we have already turned up or that we have in the backlog. And again, I think going forward, over the longer term, it's -- we think there's a really, really attractive opportunity for us.

Simon Flannery

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins from Citi.

Michael Rollins

Analyst

Thanks and good morning. Just a strategic question. As you think of the fiber portfolio and if you think about communications infrastructure more broadly, there are business models in this category. That it really doesn't matter how big the portfolio is. If the local asset is the right asset, right, it tends to get sales, yet there's other portfolios like data centers where there's been a nice cross-sell. The larger the portfolio is, it seems like there's been this natural benefit for that. How would you describe fiber infrastructure in that? Is it one that benefits from being part of a larger portfolio? Or is it the -- if you have the right assets, the right location, you have a great chance of getting the win? And then how does that instruct the type of strategic aspirations that you have for Uniti over a multiyear period?

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Good morning, Michael. Scale does matter in fiber. I think that especially on the wholesale side, the national network. When you have a national network, you're in a very different class of providers. And your ability to have conversations with large carriers, the data center providers, the hyperscalers, you're just in a different class, because they need national network. And from our vantage point, when you look at our national strategic accounts business today versus what it looked like a year or two ago, it's changed dramatically to the point where it just kind of rolls off the tongue that we're having conversations with the hyperscalers. I won't use any specific names, but we're just in a different category with respect to those types of conversations. And therefore, the business opportunity that it presents. And so our leasing business is growing at 10%, 15%, 20% a year as a result, with very high margins and great returns. And it also -- having that national network provides you with the ability to have more bespoke-type transactions and conversations. And we mentioned the lit backhaul reterm that we just signed. That's 1,100 sites. There aren't very many people that have that many sites with each of the carriers. And when you have that many sites and you have the capital available and the brand to deliver 10-gig, that puts you again on a different plane and extending a lit backhaul contract from 2.5 years to eight years is a big deal. And that's why we called it out. But you don't get those types of opportunities unless you have real scale. With all that said, Michael, if you don't have high-quality dense metro fiber in select markets with minimal competition, good demographics, good growth potential, you can't be successful in fiber, in our view. And so, as a result, we're really focused on the metro element of our business. We're -- we like to say we're the local partner with the national scale. And so, in markets like Birmingham, we've got boots on the ground. We know the various permitting authorities. We know the local -- we know all the local businesses. We know the terrain. We know what it costs to build. We know where the opportunities are to expand our network and pick up low-hanging fruit. And you don't get that unless you're very conscious about which metro markets you go into and you make investments, you stick to the 5% to 10% anchor yields and you've got a clear path to lease up. And if you pick the right markets, you've got a plethora of customer opportunities, including enterprise, schools, traditional wholesale and then, of course, lit backhaul, dark fiber backhaul and small cells. And that's really what we're seeing. When you've got the right network and the right market, you can have a great opportunity for both anchor and lease-up and a healthy balance of both.

Michael Rollins

Analyst

Thanks. And just one quick follow-up. What's the algorithm these days for the minimal capital intensity in fiber as a percent of revenue to replace churn and to keep that fiber revenue flat to organically growing over time?

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Yeah. We haven't we haven't disclosed that number. I think in some time. I don't know if we ever have actually, but our maintenance CapEx is around 3% and our capital intensity is from an aggregate basis. I really think -- and our churn is very low. I mean, we talk about it as industry-leading. It's certainly right up there with a write-down there in terms of industry-leading, so very low 0.2%. So, we'll have to refresh on that number, Michael, but I really think it's kind of around -- probably around 10%, plus or minus a little bit, but right around 10%.

Michael Rollins

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Kenny Gunderman for closing remarks. End of Q&A:

Kenny Gunderman

Analyst

Look to updating you further on future calls in Community Group and look forward to updating you further on future calls. Thank you for joining today.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.