Steven Sintros
Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead
Yeah. It's an important question, Andrew. When we -- when you start to look at next year and we're not here to provide guidance for next year, but we made the comments for a reason. When we think about the different areas of costs, we're going to be dealing with looking into 2022, it really is in what I'd call three different areas. You have the area that you mentioned would call it the inflationary environment. Clearly, the cost and availability of labor is a challenge. Now, how long will it be a challenge? Is it a -- is it a surge that moderates, is it an ongoing challenge? I think it's something we're going to be having to deal with. We are dealing with it now, and it is going to cause costs to rise. And as costs rise, whether it's with labor energy fabric costs or any other inputs that are currently being impacted by call it the inflationary environment, we will work with our customers to pass along costs where we can. So, that's one category, you're right about the second category is being, sort of, this bounce back of costs. And that's why we made the comment particularly on merchandise, which is the largest piece. For six to eight months starting at the beginning of the pandemic, call it March, 2020, we started seeing a significant amount of lower needs for merchandise ads, not just from new accounts, but from replacement garments, which is the bulk of our merchandise requirements. Those as -- as you understand, how we amortize our merchandise, those caused our overall merchandise expense for 2021 to be quite a bit lower than our historical norm. We're starting to see that bounce back now could understand, as it bounces back, for example, this quarter is probably one of the -- almost the low point, because as you start to put in more, right that amortization starts to build again. So, over the course of 2021, we, -- I'm confident in saying, we will be experiencing higher merchandise amortization as a percentage of revenues. Hopefully in October, what will -- we'll be able to give you a better sense with three or four months more information as to what we think that looks like. But the caution here is to say that the merchandise amortization, we're experiencing today is over a hundred basis points lower than, sort of, historical levels. When do we get back to those historical levels? How does the energy sector intersect with that? How does sales intersect with that? There's a lot of factors, but we just wanted to highlight that that cost is running historically low and we fully expect it to normalize. Similarly with travel, which we obviously can control a little bit more. We are benefiting still from less travel, quite a bit less travel than, sort of, the pre-pandemic time. And like a lot of companies, we're looking at travel to say, where can we be more efficient? What have we learned during the pandemic that can help us manage travel costs more effectively? And there are ways, but we need to be out in front of our customers. There's travel that will come back. And then the third category of costs, which is, sort of, inherent in some of our comments as well, is our initiatives like the ABS deployment and some other things that we'll have going on in 2022. We will probably be more proactive about speaking about those costs and probably even giving you sort of an indication of adjusted operating margin as we go into 2022, and these costs continue to be more significant. So it is three discrete areas. I tried to mention all of them in our prepared remarks, because we do want to caution a little against, I think what you're talking about, which is the economy has recovered everything's back to normal. Well, our business has always benefited during slow times from a cost perspective. And during growth times, there can be margin challenges from things like energy, merchandise and others. This is even probably accentuated even more than that, because I'd say during the pandemic things like merchandise and energy and healthcare and travel were all things that were abnormally benefiting compared to say, the last recessionary cycle, where you didn't see that dynamic with healthcare, you didn't see that dynamic with travel. So it is a unique cycle that we're working towards. And that's why we're trying to provide that, that caution for 2022 and depending on how the economy recovers and the top line and all those other things, we'll -- we'll see where it shakes out. But we did want to provide that clarity.