Earnings Labs

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Dec 3, 2015

$536.19

-0.64%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Ulta Beauty Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Laurel Lefebvre. You may begin.

Laurel Lefebvre

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Ulta Beauty's third quarter 2015 conference call. Hosting our call are Mary Dillon, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Settersten, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us is Dave Kimbell, Chief Merchandising and Marketing Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you of the company's safe harbor language. The statements contained in this conference call which are not historical facts may be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual future results may differ materially from those projected in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, all of which are described in the company's filings with the SEC. We may make references during this call to the metric free cash flow, a non-GAAP financial measure defined as cash provided by operating activities minus purchases of property and equipment. [Operator Instructions] I'll now turn it over to Mary.

Mary Dillon

Analyst

Thank you, Laurel. Good afternoon, everyone. Ulta Beauty delivered excellent results in the third quarter. Strong traffic and healthy new store productivity drove the top line, leading to better-than-expected earnings growth. Sales rose 22.1%, and we achieved a 12.8% total company comp on top of a 9.5% comp in the third quarter of 2014. This was our best retail comp since 2011 and the best total company comp in our history as a public company. We gained market share across all of our categories with both prestige and mass color cosmetics achieving outstanding growth. Earnings per share increased 22% to $1.11 compared to $0.91 in the third quarter of last year. Scott will take you through details of our third quarter financials in a few minutes. But first, I'll provide a business update through the lens of our 6 strategic imperatives, which is our template for long-term shareholder value creation. The first imperative is to acquire new guests and deepen loyalty with existing guests. Our ULTAmate Rewards loyalty program continues to be a significant contributor to our business results. We now have 17 million active members, up almost 20% versus a year ago, a significant acceleration compared to the 15% growth we achieved last year. Our store associates are doing a fantastic job converting new customers to the program, and we've improved all the loyalty program communication touch points in conjunction with our brand relaunch last quarter, including loyalty cards, brochures and web content. All key loyalty program metrics, including retention rate, sales per member, frequency of purchase and average member ticket, are trending well above last year's numbers. We also saw a big jump in reactivation of members who haven't shopped to Ulta Beauty recently, about 56% higher year-over-year likely helped by our increased digital marketing and national advertising.…

Scott Settersten

Analyst

Thanks, Mary. Good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter sales were $911 million compared to $746 million last year, an increase of 22.1%. Comparable sales increased 12.8%. Both the retail comp and the salon-only comp were 10.9% and e-commerce growth was 56.3%. The total company comp this quarter was mostly traffic driven, with transaction growth of 10.6% and ticket growth of 2.2%. Retail-only comparable transactions were very strong, up 9.5%, the highest growth so far this year. Retail-only ticket growth of 1.4% was evenly split between units per transaction and average selling price. E-commerce growth was driven almost entirely by traffic, with average ticket increasing in the low single digits. Gross profit dollars were up 19.1% to $335.6 million, but gross profit margin deleveraged 90 basis points to 36.9% from 37.8% last year. This decline was primarily driven by planned supply chain investments, including the distribution center in Greenwood, Indiana that we opened in early August. Product and channel mix also weighed on gross profit in the quarter as we saw very strong growth in areas like mass cosmetics and e-commerce, which carry lower margins. SG&A expense increased 20.8% to $218.8 million, down 30 basis points as a percentage of sales to 24% versus 24.3% last year. This improvement was driven by lower variable compensation expense and modest leverage on store labor and other store expenses. These gains were somewhat offset by planned investments in marketing. Note that we are on track to keep marketing as a percentage of sales flat for the full year with marketing deleveraged in the back half of the year, balancing the leverage we saw in the first half. The higher marketing spend in the second half is related to investments to grow our brand awareness through national advertising campaign Mary mentioned, which includes television and radio.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Can you talk about the promotional environment and what you're seeing from a department store channel in the beauty space and whether that had any impacts on merch margins during the quarter? And in a similar vein, as you think about the outlook for the fourth quarter, is there any anticipation of promotional pressure coming from that channel?

Mary Dillon

Analyst

Well, thank you, Chris. Let me just start by saying I guess there's always promotion in retail in this time of the year in particular. We're -- if you step back and look at our business and our business results, we feel that we're kind of operating in a different way than most other retailers right now and we're pretty proud of that. So our trends are kind of transcending some of the dynamics like weather and mall traffic or other things. And certainly, from a promotional perspective, we've been actually able to drive healthy comp sales growth with actually pulling back in terms of broad discounting. Now having said that, we're really focused on using our loyalty program, our CRM capabilities, the whole toolkit of products and in-store experience to drive this great guest experience. So I'm not diminishing the fact that we're certainly in a promotional environment. We understand that. But we feel that our business is really well set up to perform really well at holiday because we're positioning ourselves as a great gift-giving destination and the formula is working well for us.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Understood. And just as one quick follow-up. Scott, was -- do you think -- was there any component in the gross margin that you would consider as a one-time expense related to the new distribution center?

Scott Settersten

Analyst

Yes, well, we've been clearly stating throughout the year that third quarter was going to be probably the most significant headwind with respect to the supply chain investments, specifically around the distribution center there in Greenwood, Indiana. So that's the biggest one-time -- I guess, one-time, that's a tough term to use, but that was the biggest single factor as far as the deleverage was concerned in the third quarter. And again, that would -- we expect that to moderate now as we march into the fourth quarter. So I think the biggest challenge for the year in the gross profit line is kind of behind us.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Fassler with Goldman Sachs.

Matthew Fassler

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I'll ask kind of a two-parter here, tangentially related. First of all, Mary, your initial insights on the economics of the marketing spend, I know this was a very big quarter for your marketing campaign and some of the broadcast advertising you did, some of your initial thoughts on the responses. And then, I guess, tangentially related, the mass business, it sounds like, gained share within the mix. That's something we haven't heard a lot about before. How do you relate that to marketing efforts, potentially, capturing new customers or to other things that are transpiring in the marketplace?

Mary Dillon

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. I love the way everybody's getting 2 questions in. That's pretty tricky. We'll try to get to as many as we can. Just kidding, Matt. Anyway, I guess I'll say a couple of things and maybe I'll ask Dave to add more to it as well. But initial feeling about our marketing mix evolution, I'm thrilled to death, frankly. I mean, this has been a journey that I think we've been on, as you know, for the past couple of years and say how can we evolve our demand creation smartly in a way that's going to just drive healthy, long-term growth in the business. And I couldn't be more pleased. I think every -- the team is just fantastic. We've done a lot of experimentation, been very careful about it to not swing the pendulum too dramatically. But now we're in a position to have this really full kind of marketing mix and we're just really getting started, I guess. And so that's a key part of, we think, one of the key growth levers for us going forward in terms of our ability to continue to get new guests and drive more market share gains with existing guests. And then on the mass side of the house, again, I'd ask [ph] Dave to add more, but I'm thrilled about that too because the whole brand promise of Ulta is, I don't mean to sound commercial here, but All Things Beauty, All in One Place is a very meaningful idea to our guests to be able to get categories and price points and brands. And we're really looking at that as something that's differentiated and ownable for the long term and as a result, all the categories have to be important to us and have to perform and they are. And maybe you could add some more about that, Dave.

David Kimbell

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes, yes, absolutely. On the marketing spend, we just started TV advertising in September, so it's probably a little early for us to fully judge the impact of the return on it. But we are really encouraged. We've seen, as both Mary and Scott talked about, increasing traffic. We're seeing a healthy increase in the key metric for us, which is membership sign-ups, and that was up 20% for the quarter as well. And so we'll continue to watch it, but so far, we're feeling very good about it. And as I think we've talked before, currently we have another cycle of television currently on air supporting our holiday efforts. So it's a tactic that we'll continue to drive, but it's also part of a much broader marketing mix. We think about TV, radio, but heavy digital, really digital in many ways being the center of our marketing efforts in really connecting and driving awareness and engagement with our guests. So we'll really dial that up as well, more PR, social media, those kind of things. So that will be a big part of our ongoing marketing campaigns. And briefly on the mass side, as Mary said, we'll continue to drive growth. Really, that growth has come at the same time we've been growing the prestige side as equally as well. So the growth is happening in all parts of our box, and we want that to continue.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Daniel Hofkin with William Blair.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair.

Obviously, terrific results. Before I ask my question, Scott, I have seen that you had been named top large company CFO by FEI, Financial Executives International, recently. So I offer my congrats on that.

Mary Dillon

Analyst · William Blair.

That's nice to raise that...

Scott Settersten

Analyst · William Blair.

I appreciate that. Thank you.

Mary Dillon

Analyst · William Blair.

You get 2 questions.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair.

It will be a one question, two-part. Just -- it's really actually just a little clarification on what's been asked already and then one thing about small store performance. You talked about impact of ads, obviously early to assess. But are there a couple things, either in terms of your online business or particular categories, that you think may have seen an outsized benefit from the ads so far? And then as it relates to margin, you indicated that mix was a factor on top of the supply chain stuff. But if you were to look at it on a same mix basis kind of within categories, could you just -- were merchandise margins, would they have been up, flat or down kind of within kind of on a same mix basis? And then my last question is just a quick update on smaller store performance.

David Kimbell

Analyst · William Blair.

Yes, just briefly on the advertising, really we're seeing healthy performance across all aspects. Scott and Mary talked about e-commerce, salon and of course, our core retail business categories are strong. So we really see that as supporting our total store, not any individual part of it and so far, that is definitely working for us.

Scott Settersten

Analyst · William Blair.

And as far as the margin question is concerned, again, the distribution center drag was the biggest driver that deleveraged year-over-year. And as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, I mean, the mass -- the spike up in the mass comp kind of surprised us a bit. So net-net, year-over-year, merch margins were better, I mean, by and large, the reduced promotional cadence that we had this year versus last year. But the mass comp surprised us a little bit versus our forecast, I guess I would say. So again, a great thing overall for the business, and we're willing to take that part of the business to the bottom line as well, even if it is a little bit lower margin range.

Mary Dillon

Analyst · William Blair.

And on small store, we're really pleased with the performance of the 2 stores that we're operating. And really what we're doing is learning about 2 kind of things at once, right, which is one is about operating alternate footprint and then continuing to learn about the smaller market opportunity. Both of those look promising to us, I guess is the way I would say it. So we already have several successful 10,000 square-foot stores in small markets. So a small market is not that new to us. But we see that as continuing to be a future opportunity, and I guess you can just continue to see us experiment with different footprint sizes that will give us more growth opportunities. So whether it's a small -- smaller store in urban or suburban streetscape, we're looking at all of those things. But those 2 stores in and of themselves are performing fine and give us some good insights.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Aram Rubinson with Wolfe Research.

Aram Rubinson

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Question, I guess, I'll leave it to one, just to focus on the distribution center, I suppose, in Greenwood. When you guys think about -- before you opened it, you probably were worried about certain factors, whether it's the cost to build it, operate it, timeliness, et cetera. Just give us a sense as to what you learned so far and whether or not you'll be folding in those kinds of learnings to other DC nodes and how it's maybe changed your future thoughts of what that network is going to look like.

Mary Dillon

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Thank you, Aram, and I guess I can answer that at a pretty high level. The first thing I would just say is actually we are really proud of our entire supply chain and DC team members right now because they work really hard, doing a lot of things at once, right? So the new distribution center, we're pleased with how that's going so far. All our DCs are busy with holiday and e-commerce fulfillment and really improving that year-over-year, so really great. And I guess the main thing I would say is that as we -- we're absolutely planning to take all learnings. It's in the process right now, and we're taking -- getting Greenwood up and running to apply it to the next distribution center. And we've got, in fact, the team from the future distribution center working at Greenwood over holiday right now to both help as well as to help gain insights in terms of how we can apply all the learnings, everything from across the board. So at a high level, I would say we're pleased with how it's going, still improvements to be made for sure, but we're very focused on making sure that we make it even easier, I guess, the next time.

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Yes, and I guess I would just add. Again, we have a 5-year road map, right, for our supply chain and merch systems kind of rebuild and we've got a couple existing centers out there, right? So there's -- we're keeping at the back of our mind how the guest experience, how it's going to evolve over the long time and we're going to toggle back and forth to make the best decisions over the long term.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Simeon Siegel with Nomura Securities.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst · Nomura Securities.

So I don't know if this is redundant, I guess, Mary, to your -- to the point you were just making. Can you talk about how those learnings at Greenwood will help with Dallas? I mean, it presumably goes quicker and maybe less expensive. So any color on the right way to think about related expenses there, Scott. And then just given the other initiatives, can you give any help with total SG&A dollar growth for the fourth quarter and next year.

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Nomura Securities.

Yes, I guess, as far as Greenwood is concerned, again, just to echo what Mary's already said here a couple, we are tickled pink with how the team has executed down there, got the building opened. We're off the ground. We're servicing stores. We're hitting our e-commerce throughput targets there on a daily basis now, which just gives us a lot more confidence on what we're going to be undertaking in Dallas next year. Again, the learnings that we're generating every day there, the ability to apply that quicker. So I mean, to your point, we're working through our 2016 plan as we speak and thinking about how quickly we can ramp up Greenwood now, right, to add more capacity there to make -- to gain more efficiencies and cost savings and then how can we get out of the gate quicker in Dallas next year. So all that's kind of a work in process, and we'll be able to share more details with you on that in March when we give guidance for next year.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst · Nomura Securities.

And then Scott, do you just know what percent of your SG&A is variable versus fixed offhand?

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Nomura Securities.

No, we don't get into that level of detail, Simeon. I'm sorry. When I look at kind of the aggregate for the fourth quarter, I think by and large, everyone's in the right zip code, I guess, when I look at margin, SG&A, kind of split. I think most people maybe are a little too conservative on the margin line. I think margins for the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin will be closer to flattish compared to last year. Certainly, you can work the math there with the offset on the SG&A line.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

So 2 parts in 1 question. Can you just comment on the transaction growth? I think you said it in certain parts of the business, whether it's the same customer, or just tell us maybe the split between the growth coming from new customer versus the same. And second question, unrelated. Thinking about the services in your store, in particular, the salon capacity utilization, I'm assuming it's not 100. I'm sure the industry is not 100 either in that business. But what's -- what is the industry norm? Where are you relative to it? Any context around that?

David Kimbell

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes, I'll start with the transaction growth. We're really, again, pleased with what we're seeing and it's coming, I think, really from a variety of places. Certainly, as our member base grows, we're growing members and they're coming more frequently over time. So that's a very strong source of growth for us and will continue to be a focus for us. Our ability to connect with our members through our loyalty program, access to her in traditional vehicles that we've used like print, but also e-mail and digital and social, has increased her connection with us and that's definitely getting her in the store more often. We've also -- Mary mentioned that we've had an increasing success and ability in attracting or reengaging guests that have fallen off of our active member list, and we define active members as somebody that shopped with us in the last 12 months. So going back in time in members that haven't been as active, and we've been successful through our efforts to bring them back into the store. So that's helping with traffic as well, and then we're also really proud of the fact that we're adding new members at an increasing growth rate. So it's coming across the board, and we think that will be -- that's a really strong part of the success that we've had.

Mary Dillon

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

And on the services question, I can't tell you exact answer to the capacity question. I can tell you that we see this a great opportunity for our business going forward. That's why it's one of the strategic imperatives, and we're actively and I think aggressively growing the business. We know that when somebody is using, for example, our salon, any of our services, they're going to be coming more often, spending more, they're great guests. Today, only under 7% of our loyalty members are using the salon, for example. So we know there's plenty of upside there across all 3 of services that we provide and we'll continue to be looking at how high is up with that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

Erica Eiler

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

This is Erica Eiler on for Rupesh. So I wanted to switch gears here to the holiday selling season. It sounds like you have some exciting exclusive kits going on. I guess I'm just curious, how do you feel you're positioned this holiday season versus prior years? And then maybe you can talk a little bit about Black Friday, how that performed versus your expectations. Were there any significant differences versus last year? And then maybe just color on what you saw online versus in-store, that will be helpful.

Mary Dillon

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

So let me take the Black Friday part to the extent that I can comment on, and then Dave maybe you can take the part for how we're set up for the holiday, okay? So obviously, I can't comment on specific trends in the quarter. The guidance that we've provided incorporates what we've seen to date, here's what I will say though that I'm really pleased with the execution that we're seeing, in-stock levels, staffing in stores, the offers themselves. Probably one of the most significant things is our e-commerce service level, strong improvement. We've really focused on that year-over-year to improve our fulfillment capabilities and delivery speeds. And just for a moment, I actually do just want to call out, this is a really good example of what I think is kind of, I guess, every CEO will say this, but I think pretty unique at Ulta, which is people working together in truly collective ways against a broader kind of purpose. So even just improving e-commerce fulfillment takes a big cross-functional effort, and we're very focused on how our teams continue to improve and collaborate and communicate and get better every day. So -- and that all sets us up well for the future.

David Kimbell

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Yes, and as far as overall kind of holiday execution, we're obviously right in the middle of it and are really feeling great about our preparation and the way we try to bring our brand to market so far this holiday and feel a lot of confidence throughout the rest of this holiday. We have a totally new approach towards our marketing efforts. I mentioned earlier, that includes mass media really for the first time. Our stores, we think, look better than ever. Floor really integrated. We think very strong holiday look that then has been infused in all of our marketing tactics, online and social, digital, magazines. All -- every touch point has a really consistent, coherent look that we're really excited about. Our products, we think, are stronger than ever across all categories. Certainly, prestige cosmetics has some very strong items -- holiday items. Mary mentioned a few of those from key brands like Benefit and IT and Tarte. Just this week, we launched our Gwen Stefani palette with Urban Decay. So there's a lot of newness coming out. NYX, in the mass side, has some great new holiday offers that are, we think, really exciting. And the Ulta brand itself, as always, has very strong holiday, and we think those are better than ever. And haircare is strong for us as well. And finally, our fragrance business is -- this is the biggest time of the year for fragrance, and we have a lot of newness across a variety of brands. Offers such as our robe are some of the biggest things we do throughout the year in that category. So across-the-board, we're feeling really good about our execution, and we'll be watching our results carefully.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Altschwager with Robert Baird.

Mark Altschwager

Analyst · Robert Baird.

I know you don't want to talk about 2016 guidance, but maybe bigger picture in the context of the multiyear plan. That plan calls for annual comps in the 5% to 7% range. Obviously, you've well exceeded that this year so far and comparisons get tougher. But now that you're a year in and you've seen the results of some of these marketing and merchandise initiatives, does that maybe change your thinking at all regarding what the base level comp is that this business is capable of over the planning horizon?

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Robert Baird.

Well, I guess I'll take a shot at this. We're still -- we got to close out 2015, right? We're still a long way from being complete, I guess I would say, to get through the holiday season here. We're feeling great about the business. The underlying trends are very strong. We feel like we have a lot of levers. We're in control of those, right? A lot of new merchandise newness coming through the business, the loyalty programs doing better than what we expected. We've got some of these brand awareness things out that are really kicking in, but we're -- we still have to see the results in some of that, right? We're still in the very early stages. So the long-term guidance we gave last year was 5% to 7%, higher in the earlier years, a little bit more moderate in the out years. We're going to kind of stay consistent with our practice. We're going to give guidance on 2016 next March, early next March and we'll be able to share more details with you on how we see 2016 rolling out and maybe a little bit more about the longer term at that point.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Tunick with Royal Bank of Canada.

Bilun Boyner

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada.

This is Bilun Boyner on for Brian. First, I guess, we wanted to ask if there were any particular differences in prestige and mass trends in Q3. And then from a higher level, I guess, newness or pricing perspective, do you see any differences in industry trends between the 2? I guess then my very quick second question is on uses of cash. Looks like the cash balance is building nicely. So could you maybe remind us how you're thinking about uses of cash?

David Kimbell

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada.

I didn't -- the first part, the difference between prestige and mass...

Mary Dillon

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada.

In terms [ph] of trends...

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada.

Trends in the industry, have we seen any differences in trends and what's going on in our pricing, I guess...

David Kimbell

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada.

Yes, pricing and trends in the industry. I mean, certainly, yes, in the broader industry we watch and as it has been for a little while, prestige has been growing in the industry. And in total, as we look at probably the same reports that you do, that's been growing faster than mass. But again, what we're really focused on is driving that total All Things Beauty, All in One Place. What, as Mary has mentioned, what's really working well for us right now is driving greater awareness, getting her into our store more frequently, but then getting her to experience the whole store and that's all categories. And she -- once she gets in, she might come in for mass, she might come in for prestige or hair or fragrance. But then we work hard through our CRM capabilities to get her introduced and engaged in all categories. So again, we're seeing growth across the entire store, and that's something that we'll continue to drive and that's what really what we're focused on despite what's happening outside of the store.

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada.

And as far as capital allocation is concerned, I guess, I would say we're very, very excited to be able to invest the way we are in our business and still be able to return significant cash to shareholders, most recently through repurchases. But over the course of the last 3 years, we returned roughly $260 million to shareholders through special dividends and share repurchases. So again, I think that demonstrates management and the board's focus on making sure we do what's right for shareholders over the long term and again, we'll right size that or change tactics as facts and circumstances change.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

Irwin Boruchow

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

I guess, Mary, when you look at the prestige portion of your business, it seems like the fragrance side of the industry has been a little weaker over the last 12 months. I guess I would think that I'm -- fragrance will be a larger piece of your business during the holiday given it's more of a giftable item. So I guess, how has that been trending for you? And how do you think about the prestige fragrance part of your business for holiday within your plan?

Mary Dillon

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Yes, I mean, it is definitely a bigger part of the business at holiday. We do a lot with our Gifts with Purchase and our guests love that. Our fragrance trends were strong in the last quarter. As you know, it's a bit of a up and down category, I guess I'd say in terms of it's a little bit more trend driven. We think the prestige side is obviously a really strong part of the category that tends to be a little more consistent, I guess, is what I would say. But important category for us. Again, it's part of the overall brand promise. We're just trying to pick our spots to make sure that we got the right portfolio for our guests and for our business.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Oliver Chen with Cowen and Company.

Oliver Chen

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

We just had a question regarding out of stocks. It sounds like there's a lot of nice opportunity ahead. Which parts of the store would you say have the best low-hanging fruit in terms of improving the out of stock levels? And then just taking a step back, your traffic has been so impressive. Is there any way for you to prioritize the various aspects that have really been helping you buck the trend and gain share?

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

Yes, let me take the out of stock question here, first of all. Again, all the supply chain things we're doing and the merchandising systems that we're making significant investments in today are going to help us with our in-stock position over the long term, both making sure we have the right product in the right store on the right shelf across the chain and just make us more efficient throughout the network, from the vendor dock all the way to the shelf in the store. So there are many different elements, I guess I would say, levers along the way. Part of it is the Swift tool that Mary described earlier today. The distribution centers play a big part in that, but there's also space planning tools and other master data things that we're doing. So it's like a continuum. It's a large broad section of things that we're putting in place to help with in-stocks overall. There's no -- I wouldn't say there's any one specific category or brand or anything like that, that we're focused on. It's just the store overall. So the easiest thing I would point to is A and B items, right? So the fastest, most high velocity SKUs were today we can't really work up accurate forecast to share with our vendors, that would be one thing that we're going to improve in the future that's going to help us stay better in stock. So there's no -- I wouldn't point to any one item. There's a number of items that we're going to implement to help us with that and it's going to help across the network.

Mary Dillon

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

On the traffic question. First of all, I would say we're proud that our traffic trends are transcending what's really happening at retail, and we're successfully driving a lot of healthy traffic to the stores. It's really not -- there's not exact science to this, I will tell you, and that's probably not [ph] what you want to hear. But the good news is it does feel like -- it looks like a lot of things coming together. So more relevant product portfolio, loyalty program, this broader marketing mix that includes things that can help drive -- are helping to drive awareness and new guests acquisition, CRM, online and in-store experience. So it's kind of like all of them together is really what we think is the magic that's working for us. And we think -- we're confident we'll be able to continue some of those levers, and we think many of them have multiyear runways.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

Joseph Altobello

Analyst · Raymond James.

Just 2 quick ones. I guess, first on the traffic. Obviously, it sticks out, as you guys alluded to, relative to other retailers this season. And the national TV advertising, I think you said started September 7. Did you guys see a pickup in traffic post that advertising launch? Or was it really pretty stable and steady throughout the quarter? Number 1. And number 2, quick one for you, Scott. The tax rate, you said, 37% for the fourth quarter. Is that a good rate to use next year because the difference between 37% and 38% is about $0.10, so it matters.

David Kimbell

Analyst · Raymond James.

Yes, on the specifics around the TV and the traffic, again, one thing I'd start with is really TV is a big kind of visible one, but it's very much is a holistic integrated marketing campaign across multiple vehicles. But I will say the TV was timed to launch with our 21 Days of Beauty event in September, and we did see very strong traffic and a very nice, healthy increase in traffic during that event and as we -- but it wasn't just that event as evidenced by the traffic throughout the quarter. We feel like -- we feel really positive about how that traffic sustained throughout the quarter. So yes, strong when we came on, but continued strength.

Scott Settersten

Analyst · Raymond James.

And as far as the tax rate is concerned, I guess I'd split the baby, so to speak. I'd use 37.50% for next year as kind of a best estimate at this stage.

Operator

Operator

We have time for one more question. Our final question comes from Jason Gere with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jason Gere

Analyst

I guess a question more on shipping. And I was just wondering from the e-commerce -- and I understand that Indiana is just up and running right now. But can you talk about how competitive your shipping is versus maybe some of the other competition out there? And on that note, do you have in all your stores the option for in-store pickup? So I was just wondering if people don't want to wait 3 days or if it's 1 to 2 days, have you seen in-store pickup that might actually contribute to the comp that you saw here that once people come in to pick up then they start browsing and doing a little bit more shopping. So really the question kind of around shipping and how that kind of plays out.

David Kimbell

Analyst

Yes, first of all, just no, we do not currently offer in-store pickup, buy online, pick up in the store. We are in the midst of long-term omnichannel road map that -- and that's something that we'll consider, but that's not currently something that's offered today. As it relates to our shipping in total, yes, Greenwood is an important part of it. Improvements we've made in our existing DCs have led to what we think is a very competitive shipping window and time frame. We did -- as we've talked before, we weren't as pleased with some of the customer service that we had last holiday, and so we've worked very hard, including opening a DC but working with our supply chain partners, IT partners to make sure that our service level -- so we feel it's very competitive, and we know it's an ever evolving landscape and we'll continue to make improvements. But we're happy with how we're going to be servicing our guests this holiday season.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the call back over to Mary Dillon for closing remarks.

Mary Dillon

Analyst

Thank you. I'd like to first thank our associates for achieving these great results. They continue to make great progress on our strategic imperatives and taking care of our guests, especially during this very busy holiday season. I want to thank all of you for your interest in Ulta Beauty. We look forward to speaking again with you soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.