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Unilever PLC (UL)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 21, 2015

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Transcript

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Thank you very much. And good morning, good afternoon and good evening to, everybody. Welcome to Unilever's First Quarter Results Presentation of 2015. Before I start, I just like to thank my very good friend, my sparring partner at times, James Allison, for his over six-years leading Unilever's Investor Relation. It's been an absolute pleasure working alongside him. During that time, I think we all have valued his deep understanding for the business, his clarity of communication and at times, his humor. Many of you may know James has now added the leadership of category finance to his many responsibilities, and this is such an important role as we’re driving our differentiated category strategies. And so that’s alongside strategy ventures in M&A means that he has his plate full. And so has stepped down from Investor Relations. So today I have here Andrew Stephen alongside me. And it's good to have someone on the call with the experience that Andrew has, heading up now the IR team, big shoes to fill very confident that he will fill them well. We’ll try to keep the call today as efficient and as effective as possible, knowing that you’re all very busy. So, we’ll start-off with just 15 or 20 minutes of prepared remarks, and then take all the time required for your questions. I will begin with the context for the results, a brief review of our overall performance. Andrew will then take us through the categories as well as the regions. And then I will conclude with an update on some of the actions we've been taking to ensure that we deliver consistent, competitive, profitable and importantly, responsible growth this year and beyond. Before we go further, let me draw your attention to the use of disclaimer relating to forward-looking statements…

Andrew Stephen

Management

Thank you, Jean-Marc. If I may say, after many quarters hitting to the left view on these goals, I'm happy to have moved over a few feet to the right. That’s not a political comment, by the way. Now, all four categories contributed to growth in the first quarter. In fact, the level of underlying sales growth was remarkably consistent. But the contributions from volume and price varied. The categories with the largest proportion of sales in emerging market or with higher commodity costs have seen the most pricing. Underlying sales growth in Personal Care improved compared with the fourth quarter. Our brands and our innovation pipeline remained very healthy and we are holding share in total. However, growth in the quarter was held-back by Europe where competitive activity set-up again, and by China and Russia. We have a strong plan and are confident that we will see volumes improve further in the remainder of the year. Foods picked up sharply with good growth in savory and dressings from both innovation and market development activities. Spreads improved with emerging markets growing well, but still more than offset by declines in the U.S and Europe. The earlier Easter helped, contributing about half of the growth, in Foods and about 40 basis-points to Unilever in total. This will reverse in the second quarter. Home Care growth reflects our focus on striking a better balance between market share gain and profitability in laundry. Our innovations have been landing well and fabric conditioners with above average margins are leading growth. This helps to max the mix within the category. Refreshment had an encouraging start with growth of 2.5% coming on top of a strong competitor of nearly 6% in the first quarter of last year. You will remember that ice cream is another category…

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Thank you, Andrew. Growth of 2.8% is an improvement on the second half of last year, but it is still below where we wanted to be. In particular, it is important to our financial growth model that we rebuild momentum in underlying volume growth, which includes both volume and mix improvement. The changes we have already put in place make us more resilient, gives us a better platform for growth. We have, indeed, simplified the organization, streamlined many of our processes and we are increasingly becoming more agile. We're now building on this; be it firstly, investing more even more in our innovation; secondly, continuing to strengthen our go-to-market capabilities; and thirdly, further sharpening our execution as we always will. So let me just say a few words on each, starting with innovation. We’ve recently completed internally a full review of the plans for each category as we do actually every year, and it's without a doubt that the greater integration of R&D into the category organizations has really helped us have a much stronger pipeline to-date. It is increasingly delivering the technologies that give us the bigger innovations, based on sharper insights, clearer benefits to consumers. This is evidence in the recent cross-brand launch of dry-spray deodorants in the U.S. The technology, it's the same, as in the compressed deos, which are growing very well in Europe. But the products and communication are tailored to the U.S. consumer need. By the way, they still have the same packaging efficiency as the compressed deos in Europe and sell at a premium. Back in December, at our investor events, I explained that we now have much sharper category strategies. These help us, make clearer choices in allocating resources. And together with a simpler regional organization, they’re helping us get even closer…

A - Andrew Stephen

Operator

[Operator Instructions] So I see the first question is from Graham Jones. Graham, can we have your question please.

Graham Jones

Analyst

I've got two questions if I may, firstly on North America. You talk about good momentum in a few years, especially in deodorants, ice-cream. But volumes were negative in Q1. And I think looking at last year you’re lapping the easiest volume comparison of the year in North America. So, I was just wondering, what was driving that for the weaker performance in North America on volume terms? And also, why you we’re seeing an improvement in the pricing environment in North America in Q1, given the import cost deflation? And my second question is on China. And I was looking for a bit of color about what sort of your consumer off-take was perhaps looking like in China. And whether you are confidently still at least growing in line with your categories in China, and you stated that the Chinese major citizen hypermarkets are flat. But I know that the latest retail sales figure for China as a whole is still showing about 10% growth, so a bit more color on China would be appreciated.

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Sure, Graham, good morning, and thanks for these questions. Let me just take North America firstly, your first question. There continue to be mixed signals in the U.S. economy, but we do see consumer confidence improving. So that's the first point to make. Specifically, on volumes, we had some timing in terms of the launch of our deos, which drove some of the lower volumes in Q1 versus Q4. But overall, if you just take a step away from 90 days, we see an improvement in our business. There is more momentum. I can't give you views on pricing on volume per region, but we're just happy with the overall performance in our U.S. business. Competition remains intense, specifically if you look at hair, but also in dressings. But overall, things are going well. As we look at the markets, the markets are probably growing at around 2%, all of that’s from price. So, I think that our numbers also stack-up with the overall market trends. When it comes to your second question, on China, obviously, overall, the newspapers everyday are full of articles about what the GDP growth is, and it's very difficult to really get a good grasp. As you see, our market growth rates within our overall sector, let's call it FMCG, they’ve stabilized to around 2% to 3%. You take the top cities, the hypermarkets are basically flat but there is growth and the growth is either in the tier-2 cities or in the smaller stores and also in e-commerce, which obviously is growing very nicely. If you take our business, first point, we're just pleased that we've gone through this phase of destocking that is behind us and with very difficult comparables our actual performance in China has stabilized. So, in summary, sorry for the long answer, but I think we're in line with consumer off-take, we've got the right strategy in terms of cities, e-commerce to grow and the difficult year of 2014 is behind us.

Andrew Stephen

Management

Our next question is from Alain Oberhuber, Alain.

Alain Oberhuber

Analyst

I have question about input cost, if you could give us a little bit a pattern where input cost will be during the year and give a little bit more highlight of which input costs are going more down? And then the second question is on Personal Care development. Will the acceleration in volume in Personal Care be through all the soft categories or is there a specific category which will grow faster?

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Okay Alain, thank you very much for your question, just on commodity costs. In January, we thought that we would have a small tailwind. And so, since the dollar has strengthened so much, where we are right now is we think that commodity costs for the year are basically going to flat. Now this can change, it takes around four to six months for costs to get through our P&L. But as it stands today, we expect commodity costs to basically be flat. If you take our commodities, also the question that you are posing, around 20 billion of commodities of which 20% to 25% are indirectly or partly affected by oil. So, that's where we are with commodities. Your second question on Personal Care, can you just repeat that quickly Alain was it about certain sub-segments?

Alain Oberhuber

Analyst

Yes, exactly, so in the statement you said that you expect the Personal Care volumes to go up, but within the personal care which soft categories deodorant or the other one. Do you expect which will grow faster than the others?

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

I think the three categories that I would just highlight and expect further improvement in performance is deos, which, by the way, has gone through quite competitive battles, hair as well as overall. So those are the three that I would mention. But making perhaps a more broader overall comment Personal Care will improve, it's been impacted by what we discussed in China. We have an important Personal Care business in Russia. And there's been a lot of competition here in Europe. And so that is the reason why Personal Care is where it is today, which is not where we'd like it to be and we do expect it to improve.

Andrew Stephen

Management

I think the next question is from Celine.

Celine Pannuti

Analyst

Good morning. My first question is on Latin America. You mentioned that Brazil was difficult. Could we get a bit more detail on numbers there, because -- and overall whether these high prices, how much comes from at present Argentina and what's coming from Brazil? The second question in on the overall commentary you made about higher A&T. Some of your competitors have clearly said that they will use their FX tailwind in order to reinvest in the market and have guided to more modest margin improvements. Would that be fair to believe that -- how would you read see yourself competing and how you balance your top-line opportunity versus the margin expansion.

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Okay Celine, good morning. Thank you for your questions. If I just take Brazil, as a country, we see like you probably do as well, conditions actually continuing to deteriorate, negative GDP, consumers spend declining. You see it in the newspapers, a lot of uncertainty. If you actually look at our markets, they are basically flat in volume. Who would have known by the way a couple of years ago that what a rationing in a place like Sao Paolo is actually changing the consumer behavior. Now you know I don’t speak that often about how we have sustainability integrated into in our business plan. But what an example, people are showering, washing clothes less frequently, so what an opportunity for us dry shampoos, one rinse fabric conditioners, et cetera. So, it's a huge pace and point but anyway lots of volatility be it economically or from a sustainability perspective in Brazil. Our own performance from a USG perspective basically made to high single-digits as it stands today and its broad based actually across all the categories. Your question about pricing and alike, if I take Argentina. Let me actually take Argentina and Venezuela. Argentina, it's important for us. But it's only 2% of total Unilever turnover. And I think that one of the strengths of our portfolio, now that we are just shy of 60% in emerging markets, is that we are never too reliant just a one country. Be it either China, be it any other specific African country, or a place like Argentina which is just over 2% of Unilever. Venezuela and other market that many people ask questions about, is less than half a percent of turnover. The pricing in those two countries you put it together are the basically similar levels this year as it…

Andrew Stephen

Management

Next question is from Jeremy Fialko.

Jeremy Fialko

Analyst

Good morning. Jeremy Fialko, Redburn, here. Just one question for you, you talked about how you’d expect volume growth to accelerate in a second half, but then pricing to moderate. Really can you just talked about as you see things today, what the sort of relativities are here in terms of the extensive volume improvement relative to the extensive pricing softening. Do you think the two reasons carries one and other out or do you think one component will be stronger than the other? Thanks.

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Let me give this to one to Andrew.

Andrew Stephen

Management

Clearly, the fact that we’ve got currencies and commodities moving around a lot, does adds to a little bit of difficulty in predicting forward precisely. But we’re certainly even looking for an improvement in volumes. The price growths should ease. Of course there will be different trends depending on where you are in the world, we'll see emerging markets, many of them continued to take some fresh pricing as we’ve seen recently in Brazil and Turkey, and Russia for example. But there will be other parts of the world, notably Europe where we won’t expect to see positive pricing we may while see continued price deflation in fact. And indeed in many of the emerging markets so we’ve had good momentum that momentum in pricing may ease because they'll be less pressure upwards, so less pricing. Where that will end-up? We'll have to see when we get through to the end of the year. We haven't changed our guidance, which remains 2% to 4% for underlying sales growth in the year, we'll clearly be aiming to try to get in the top-half of that range, but there's a long way to go yet.

Andrew Stephen

Management

The next question is from Warren Ackerman.

Warren Ackerman

Analyst

Good morning Jean-Marc, good morning Andrew. It’s Warren Ackerman here of SoGen. Also two questions, the first one, can I ask about two countries we haven't mentioned yet, which are Russia and India. I was wondering whether you could tell us what the like-for-like was in the quarter for each country and an idea of your share trends and perhaps your outlook for the rest of the year in those two countries. Particularly, interested in how Clean is doing in Russia and in India the kinds of trends you're seeing between rural and then urban consumption in India and then just secondly on pricing just coming back to Jeremy's question, down 1.9% in Q1 in Europe. Are you able to kind of split it for us between food and HPC, I mean are we seeing negative pricing in all four categories? And you talk about pricing potentially being more negative in Europe for the balance of the year, given we're already at minus 2 in Q1. I mean how much lower, could pricing go in Europe? Thank you.

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Couple of points on pricing, down 1.9%, we basically see it broad based, the decline through all four categories. On India, if you can just suspend disbelief just for a little bit till the 8th of May, that's when that quarter is they will do a better job and they would also help me to not speak too much about HUL. So just wait for the 8th of May. But overall, we're happy with the performance of India over the last quarter. So wait till the 8th of May. On Russia, Russia again is one of these important markets to us. It is only 2% of Unilever's portfolio at around €1 billion. 50% of that business is Personal Care, and so important for our PC franchise. Russia you know the economy is continuing to weak, you've got the sanctions, lower oil prices that Andrew mentioned, GDP expected to decline mid single-digits, the ruble has devalued by around 20% versus this time last year. So consumers are in bad shape. So the overall macro context for Russia is really worrying. Within that whole context, our underlying sales growth was down essentially mid single-digit. And just to lift the bonnet a little bit more, PC and dressings down in weak markets and in actual fact home households care and ice-cream have been holding up relatively well. But then again, this is just one quarter.

Andrew Stephen

Management

I think the next question is from Chris Ferrara.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst

Good morning. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about Brazil. Obviously, you’ve thought enough of the deceleration to call it out specifically. I think you said the market volume is flat. But what is the value growth of the market, and I guess how much of a deceleration did you see in your business specifically? And I guess could you talk a little bit about how much of your own fate do you control, given that these are more macro problems? And then I guess secondly you cited a bunch of competitive battles, I think last quarter, that you had chosen not to participate in. Can you maybe give us a little bit of a status update on what has happened in those? Have you seen some of that competition level subside? Did you join some of those battles? And is that maybe part of the balance you saw in the laundry where you decided the balance share gains with profitability?

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Thank you, Chris. I'll give Andrew the question on competitive battles, let me just deal with Brazil. I said our markets are flat in volume. Our underlying sales growth in Brazil is mid to high single-digit and it's through all the categories. So, very difficult markets but we've performed well in those markets, can we perform at these levels as the markets continue to decelerate with the volatility that we have, is a huge question mark. What I can tell you is time and time again is that when markets in emerging markets go through difficult times, the more we invest the closer we are to our consumers, the community, the stronger we are, as the things improve. So we will continue to invest in important markets, like Brazil and others. So, at the end of the day, we have a big business. The problems are much bigger than our business. We can continue to do well. But obviously, if the macro-environment just continues, that is going to impact our business and there will be some correlation. But for now, I'm very pleased with our financial performance. Over to you Andrew.

Andrew Stephen

Management

On competition, I mean a few overall comments. Competition from both multinationals and local competitors remains tough, but there's really nothing new in that. Local competitors have always been important, and we're very mindful of them. They can be agile they can pick up on local consumer insights. In categories like laundry, they tend to be the ones that have been around for time. But other categories, like skin, they come and they go more. And of course that's a reminder for us that what's important for us to use our global scale and R&D behind our innovations, but at the same time being sensitive to local needs and aspirations, and of course drive our costs hard. Specifically on the battles that we talked about in the fourth quarter, we talked about in Personal Care, in Europe, the fact that competitive intensity, particularly promotional intensity, was higher than ours. We have raised our game there. We have stepped up, but then so have competitors. So that remains an issue, which we're addressing. In China, we also talked about the fact that we'd reduced our promotional intensity, while others have continued to promote highly, again that continues to be the case at the moment but will improve through the course of the year. The other one we talked about was India and skin cleansing and laundry. But as Jean-Marc says, we'll need to wait until HUL report their results before giving you any update on that. I think the next question is from Javier Escalante.

Javier Escalante

Analyst

Good morning everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Coming back to China and Brazil, one aspect, it has been alluded but not developed, has to do with the changes in retail. China you mentioned online and the initiative of growing at 40%. But then you said another big channel-shift towards specialty stores. And I wonder whether you have the brands to compete there, because a lot of it has to do with local Chinese brands, particularly in skin care. What are your thoughts in that? And the same thing in Brazil, to what extent, what is happening also there is changes in retail and also with the demise of direct selling companies, you don’t seem to be benefitting as much in Brazil? Thank you.

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Javier, good morning, and thanks for your questions. I think -- I can't give you perhaps the detail that you're looking for in specifically the changes in the retail. But what I can tell you that it is absolutely clear that versus five years ago, local Chinese brands are now taking China for us are much more competitive than they were five years ago. And so, I think that rather than just focus on the strategy of multinationals, dealing with local competitors and dealing with local brands which by the way are successful, not only on the low but also on the medium and increasingly on the more premium levels, is absolutely a challenge that we face. We see higher competitive intensity and we see increased loyalty towards Chinese brands. What I will tell you, though, is that it's important for our franchise; one, is to understand those local trends; leverage the globality of our business, but make sure that we are locally relevant. And part of that local relevance is being available where the consumers shop. And so, the main trend right now is just the explosion of e-commerce taking place in China, and all related. And we're just making sure that we're as well positioned as possible to capture that growth. When it comes to Brazil, I can't mention any trends away from direct selling to our business. But quite frankly, with the performance that we’ve had in Brazil for the last four to five quarters which are either double-digit or this quarter mid to high single-digit, I'm pleased with the performance. And I'm not just looking at the financial performance. But just the overall state of the business, it's gone through some serious IT transformation programs and the like, I'm very happy with the competitive position of our business and the overall health.

Andrew Stephen

Management

We have just two more questions on the line. So I think we'll take those two and then call the call to a close. And the next question is Richard Withagen.

Richard Withagen

Analyst

Good morning. It’s Richard Withagen from Kepler Cheuvreux. I just have one question Jean-Marc you touched upon e-commerce in your remarks. And I was just wondering, whether you’d give any more details on your e-commerce initiatives in Personal Care, specifically I understand that that is a category where e-commerce is booming or starting to boom?

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Let me give that one to Andrew.

Andrew Stephen

Management

So, this is something that we’ve very much been on over recent years, and we’ve been stepping up our resource. We've actually put resource, particularly into five hubs around the world, so the UK, US, Brazil, China and now Singapore as well although, we have resource in more than 20 countries. There are different models depending where you are, whether it’d be the traditional of bricks-and-mortar, Tesco.com, type of model in the UK. Or the marketplace model like, Taobao for example in China, different models in different parts of the world. So we're very much piloting different models, they will evolve over time. We have, at the moment, our fair share of these markets. We'd like obviously to be ahead of the game. They are relatively smaller use channels for our sorts of price-points than some of the other higher price-point products. But we’ve very much looking to accelerate there. And as we said, we're looking for strong growth this year to keep ourselves ahead of the game and even get a little bit ahead of where others are.

Richard Withagen

Analyst

And could you perhaps say what kind of growth rates we're talking about in Personal Care in e-commerce.

Andrew Stephen

Management

I mean, Personal Care, has a higher percentage. So when we talked about 1% overall for our Unilever sales or for 5% as it is of our sales now in UK and China, it would be a higher percentage in Personal Care. I can't give you the growth rate specifically by category. But I can tell you that it is higher in Personal Care than in the other categories.

Andrew Stephen

Management

So we'll just take the final question now from Alex Smith.

Alex Smith

Analyst

Good morning. I have a follow-up question on your comments on input costs, and reinvestments, I guess. I think you said you're now looking at flat costs for the year. But presumably given that the timing of your hedges, you'll still see deflation in the second half of the year. And I think that laps probably quite considerable inflation in H2 last year. So, it strikes me that you've got quite a dramatic swing in your cost base, as you get into the second-half of the year, and that's in your favor obviously. And that's on top of good savings momentum in H1, coming through from Project Half. Pricing doesn't seem to be turning negative, even as you get into the back-half of the year. So, I guess, I'm just wondering why we're only looking at modest margin improvement, unless A&P is up quite dramatically? So I was just really wondering if you could help me square that equation please.

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Well, I can square it actually quite easily, core operating margin has been increasingly important to us. You will know, over the last five years, we've invested a huge amount into the business, be it either OpEx or capital. And for us, we want to make the whole system work, be it top line as well as core operating margin, as well as earnings per share. I won't give any guidance on H1, as well as versus H2. But yes, we will have gross margin improvements in the second half, which are more weighted due to forward covers, stocks, and the like. We'll also have some good overheads improvements in H1. But that's also driven by the one-offs in the second half of the last year. But overall, we expect good core operating margin improvement. We demonstrated that last year. We expect to be able to do that each and every year. But this year is the year of investing behind our brands to make sure that we're competitive and that we continue to win share like we've been doing over the last 12-months, and really bolstering our portfolio.

Andrew Stephen

Management

Okay, we're bringing the call to a close there. If there are further questions, of course, Ansgar, Steve and I will be happy to take them as soon as we get back to our desk. And I'll just hand back to Jean-Marc to conclude.

Jean-Marc Huet

Management

Well, thank you very much from myself as well as Andrew and all your time today. Thank you very much for the questions, which we will obviously always further reflect upon. Let me just sum-up in a few words. The first quarter puts us on-track to deliver another year of competitive top-line growth and this combined with steady margin improvement and another consistent increase in the dividend which underscores the long-term value that we are aiming, and trying, and creating from our business model. So as usual, the IR team will be happy to answer all your other questions, or more specific questions. But from me, enjoy please the rest of the day and eat as much as ice-cream as possible as it remains good weather. Thank you very much.