Operator
Operator
We are about to hand over to Unilever to begin the conference call. [Operator Instructions] We will now hand over to Mr. James Allison.
Unilever PLC (UL)
Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 25, 2013
$56.99
-1.23%
Same-Day
-1.59%
1 Week
-0.26%
1 Month
-3.86%
vs S&P
-2.12%
Operator
Operator
We are about to hand over to Unilever to begin the conference call. [Operator Instructions] We will now hand over to Mr. James Allison.
James Allison
Analyst
Good morning, and welcome to Unilever's Second Quarter and Half Year Results Presentation. Today, we're doing this via webcast. For the full year results, we'll be back with a physical meeting in London, but for the midyear, we thought you'd appreciate a bit more time at your own offices in a busy results season. We hope to see many of you in person at our Annual Investor event which, this year, we will be hosting at our Colworth research facility here in the U.K. at the start of December. And you will receive more news about that very soon. In the usual way, the presentation of our results this morning will be given by Paul and Jean-Marc. Paul is going to share his perspectives on the first half year. Jean-Marc will cover the financial highlights, and Paul will finish by looking at what we need to do to stay ahead of the curve in this increasingly challenging world. We start with the usual disclaimer relating to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. And with that, let me hand over to Paul.
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Thank you, James, and good morning to everyone. Let me start with some reflections on where we've gotten in our strategy to transform Unilever. After years of underperformance, we set out to become a sustainable growth company, and this meant investing more, investing behind our brands, our people, as well as capabilities. We also strengthened the innovation funnel with bigger and better launches that we now roll out faster. These solid set of results we've just announced show once more that the transformation is fully on track and that the company is competitive on most fronts. As is so often the case, this is a journey that needs to be completed in stages, and I appreciate the fact that you've been patient with us in this first part. This stage has got Unilever back to being a growth company, a prerequisite for long-term value creation, with particularly strong performance in the emerging markets and in the Personal and Home Care categories, in line with our strategy. We are, therefore, delivering to our strategic choices. As we all discussed together in Paris, we have now moved into the second phase of the journey. In this stage, we need to better balance the top line growth with the gross margin improvement, so that we're able to fuel further investments, as well as driving profitability. We also need to deliver superior growth in Food and Refreshments, which is obviously an important part of our portfolio. After 12 months, we've started to focus on what we call about -- sorry, about 12 months ago, we started focusing on what I call Maxing the Mix, and this is now bearing fruits. More and more of our innovations are lending in the market, with more added benefits to our consumers, and that helps us justify the…
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Thank you, Jean-Marc. And I think from all what you've heard, you can conclude that we've come a long way. Step-by-step, we've put our competitiveness back as we've put in place again the building blocks for sustainable, and now also, profitable growth. You've seen again many proof points in the numbers we have shared with you this morning. But not only that, the resilience and consistency that we have built has enabled us to compete well in what has proved to be again an increasingly demanding environment. This has been the Fit to Compete path that you've heard us talk about so often. And the first half results show encouraging signs that we are becoming fit to win. But I believe the external environment will again get tougher and we have to set the bar once more higher to continue to outperform the market. No doubt that competitors have been restructuring at an accelerated pace, and some have translated that again in significantly increased promotional activity. And we also see changes on the competitive front, be it through changes in the ownership of global players or the rise of new local and regional competitors in emerging markets. They are setting new benchmarks as well. And finally, the economic background will remain challenging for the foreseeable future. This means that we have to raise our game once more to the next level. We're well-placed to respond to these challenges, and we'll talk much more about this at our Investor Event in December. But there are 3 areas that are already clear to me where we have to up the game. The first one is to continue to step up our pace of innovations, and I would always say that. The second one is the need to rebase once more our costs.…
James Allison
Analyst
[Operator Instructions] And I think the first up on the line, if I can see, yes, is Harold Thompson of Deutsche Bank.
Harold Thompson - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Analyst
Yes, Harold Thompson from Deutsche Bank. I've just got 2 questions. The first one, clearly, on gross margins, very impressive, up 120 basis points. And I think, Jean-Marc, you said that the work on Maxing the Mix has contributed to that performance. Without wanting to get carried away, how much has this Maxing the Mix contributed to that 120 basis points? And therefore, how should we think about the potential for that program to help Unilever going forward? The second one is more a pricing question, 2% pricing in the quarter, it keeps coming down. I guess the pass-through effect would mean we'd get to close to 0 by year-end. What can you tell us on how pricing strike, I guess, input inflation will look like in the second half?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Thanks, Harold. The -- I'll get into the gross margin for one second, and I'll ask Jean-Marc to do the pricing part of this. On the gross margins, I appreciate that Maxing the Mix is obviously a key driver when you do 120 basis points which so far seems to be ahead of other reported results. I also like to remind you, and you probably are the first one to know that, Harold, that we already started our journey of gross margin improvement over the second semester of last year. So there seems to be more consistency coming in. As you see, the delta of these improvements between ice cream and laundry where we focused on and the rest of our business, it is also fair to say that Personal Care and Foods are actually increasing its gross margin as well. So -- and they have not really been benefiting yet from this expansion of these low-cost business models. So if you see 170 basis points, at least 100 to 120 basis points is low-cost business models, but the rest is obviously the discipline of getting rid of your low profitable variants, the more profitable innovations. 75% of our innovations we now launched are margin accretive, and these are efforts that have been done across the board. So we think it is well implemented now with discipline across all the categories, but we also think there's more juice to come. On pricing, I'll hand it over to Jean-Marc. But before that, let me just simply point out that as you -- we've always said pricing will ease off a little bit so that should not be surprise to any of us. But I also hope that you have noticed that across the categories, the volume component is actually picking up. And that's the most important thing for us. So it's quality of growth that counts. And I'll hand it over to Jean-Marc. Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huët: Sure. Thanks, Paul. So just for the second half, we don't expect any further price increases in either Europe or North America; if anything, it could be slightly negative. I think that there will be pricing expected from the emerging markets, given the currency devaluation that we've talked about, so the UPG of the second half will probably be a little less than the first half. Just some color on the first half, UPG was at 2.3%, rollover was around 1.5%.
James Allison
Analyst
Okay, I think we now have Celine Pannuti. Celine A.H. Pannuti - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: All right. Just my 2 questions. The first one on the -- what you mentioned for the Americas zone. On one hand, you mentioned that Brazil was helped by the SAP rollout with volume in, and as well you've seen a hit on U.S. sales because of some destocking. Could you maybe give a bit of a color on the magnitude of those? I understand that maybe Latin American and Brazil issue could be a quarterly effect, but I was wondering in the U.S., one of your competitors has mentioned a slowdown in the mass market in Personal Care, so whether that could be something that will be more ongoing in the coming quarters? That's my first question. Second question, coming back on what you just said about all the positive on gross margin and Maxing the Mix. Is there a way you could maybe help us to understand the balance of what you said, top line investment and an environment that is competitive, versus all those goodies that you're making on the cost side? I remember at the full year stage, I did ask you if you were happy with 30 basis point consensus. You said, yes. Now your margin is up 40. Shall we raise the bar there?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Thanks, Celine, I appreciate that. Let me quickly write it down because they are 2 good questions. If you first take the Americas, again, I just want to be clear. We've always said a slowdown in these economies, and you actually see that happening. You just have to look at the numbers -- macroeconomic numbers of Brazil, as you mentioned, and you know what we are talking about. Despite that, we have double-digit growth in Brazil, and under Fernando Fernandez, do very well. We've launched TRESemmé, which is now the second biggest hair care brand. We see our Knorr brand, behind the baking bags and the bouillons, getting stronger. We see Magnum growing behind a very focused plan on ice cream and doing well there, thank you very much. And our laundry business, I like to remind everybody, despite having to deal with competitors at 30% lower pricing or more, still have a 70% share. And that's a share that you also found a few years back. So the competitive battles are won as well. So we know what to do. And Latin America will always have its ups and downs in some of the countries, depending on the political situations or some of the other battles, but we are getting good returns and we continue to grow double-digit there. The America, North America, we agree with you. We've always said, again, that North America market is basically flat. I've said that before, and I also think that the growth that you are there seeing is not very well spread. We need growth that touches everybody in the population. And we like employment levels to go up. We like consumer confidence to go up, across the population to do well. Personal Care markets are broadly flat. Interestingly, on Personal Care,…
James Allison
Analyst
Thank you, Celine. I think we got Jon Cox now on the line.
Jon Cox - Kepler Capital Markets, Research Division
Analyst
Jon Cox with Kepler Cheuvreux. I keep coming back to the -- some of the questions have been asked before. In North America, the underlying sales growth appears to be negative 2% in Q2, I think, if you strip out Q1. You seemed to be saying there's some oneoffs in there. You talked about the comparable. You talked about the fate of ice cream. I'm wondering if you could sort of quantify them at all. And also you seem to be saying that after the worst is over, we should -- you should start to go positive in the second half of the year, is that correct? And then just on the second question. To come back to the commodities key point, would you agree with the statement that in the first half you didn't get any benefits at all from what is generally an easier commodity environment, and you should start to see those improvements come through in the second half of the year? And this will add to the 120 basis points improvement you're already seeing with the Maxing the Mix and the low-cost business model. And as a result, the gross margin improvement for this year is going to be above that 120 basis points?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Yes. Thank you, Jon. We'll continue the tradition that I'll take the first one, and Jean-Marc the second one on the commodities, if you don't mind. If you look at America itself, I just want to reiterate again, we are actually growing share, and about 56% is the exact number. I'm looking at a sheet here, of our business, so it is healthy but the market has slowed down a little bit, and there is some effect of phasing that is in there. Looking forward, the U.S. will be a slow growth market in line with the economy, I don't want to deny that. But I think we are well-placed. We don't see any surprises, and the actions we take, the investments we make in our industrial base or in our brands give me confidence that we will show that growth and we don't get carried away by 3 months here. But our spreads and Dressings business is growing. We're just celebrating the Hellmann's 100th anniversary. We see good shares there. We have just launched the Lipton cups. We were late, no doubt about that, but that's a big growing part of the market in beverages in the U.S. we're just entering as we talk. Vaseline, that historically, has been frankly a neglected brand in the U.S. if I may be strong and firm. We have just launched a spray-and-go variant, which is doing extremely well, and the brand is moving back. Our other PC business is growing. So we are starting to work now in the normal sequence of doing everything step-by-step our Knorr business, and I'm convinced that that comes back as well. On ice cream, we've been having a little softness, and that's a big part of our U.S. business. And frankly, we've taken there that decision,…
James Allison
Analyst
Okay. Next up, we've got James Edward Johns.
Unknown Analyst
Analyst
Quick question on currencies. You referred the likelihood of emerging market price rise in the second half given currency weakness. To what extent does the underlying weakness in emerging market economies moderate your desires to raise prices in those markets?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Well, we've always had this question now, James, in all fairness, for the last 5 years, that some people are continuing to be concerned on the emerging markets. We've been very transparently saying that these economies are slowing down. You've seen that in China, in India and Brazil. We have a -- we deal with that by launching new brands. In Brazil, we just launched Cif and Domestos. We launched Dove in China less than 12 months ago. We are launching other variants in Indonesia and the list goes on. So we compensate for that by stepping up our innovation pace, by working our costs and able to deal with that. There is no doubt -- you just have to be realistic, there is no doubt that the weakening of these currencies over the last few months has been bigger and deeper than anybody has anticipated. If you look at the public opinion and the research that is publicly available that you get probably more of than we do, nobody had estimated that. So we have to deal with it. The good thing is that having the strongest brands in these markets, that allows you to deal with that better than our competitors and find the right balance. So that is what we do, and that is what we get paid for. And again, you see in the emerging markets a 10% growth. I also want to remind you, James, that on average, for all of the emerging markets, there is not 1 market -- I'm looking at Jean-Marc, actually, but there's not 1 market where we have more than 8% of our turnover, no? That's -- so we are a very well-diversified company in that respect. And the whole discussion now about emerging markets, which is 60% of the business, soon 80% of the population, is becoming simplistic. The world is not anymore emerging market and D and D&E. In many of -- we still have in these discussions as emerging markets, they have become very developed and very robust, and we know how to deal with that. And that is what you see in these results again once more.
Unknown Analyst
Analyst
I'm sorry. Just to put you -- sorry, Paul, does the -- does this current -- the underlying weakness in a number of emerging market economies, does that make you less inclined to force through price increases perhaps than you have in the past?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
No, we will look at that very granularly because there are many factors in there. There are competitive factors in there, there's relative brand strengths in there. We look at that very granularly. But the pricing that you see moving forward, there is no doubt in my mind, that there will be pricing in the forecast, as we have the 5% grossing speed in this environment where we are right now. The 3% volume, 2% pricing is actually a very healthy mix. I don't think that will significantly change, if you don't get too excited about 3 months here, 3 months there. And the main pricing will come from having to price for these weakened currencies. And that, we will be able to do.
James Allison
Analyst
Now we've got Jeremy on the line, Jeremy Fialko.
Jeremy Fialko - Redburn Partners LLP, Research Division
Analyst
Jeremy Fialko, Redburn here. We've got 1 question for you, which is on this sort of SKU rationalization you're doing as part of Maxing the Mix. What I wanted to get to know whether you could give us some sort of indication on whether that did actually have any sort of meaningful drag on your underlying sales growth in the period, and whether it supposes [indiscernible] you got quite a lot further to go is something we need to kind of bear in mind when thinking about your sales growth over kind of coming quarters?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Yes. What -- and that's a good question, Jeremy. What I believe is that the -- a company is fit to win when they have the and mentality not the or mentality. Often people say, "Well, if you bring down your inventories, your customer service goes down" or "If you ask your customers to pay quicker, they will order less from you", we've proven that to be wrong. Some people will say, "If you want better products, it has to cost more", we've proven that to be wrong. And some people will say, "You need more SKUs to grow". I actually am in the camp that if you have less SKUs, you can grow better. If you have more SKUs, there are always some SKUs on life support, and you know the National Health Service is becoming pretty expensive. So rationalizing these SKUs is actually helping us bring in more focus. Sure, there might, in some cases, be a short-term effect in a quarter, but longer term, it gives you better brands, better equities. Where we see the short-term effect of this SKU rationalization -- because we're about 20% down in SKUs, but I think we have a lot more to go. But for example, in the U.S., in ice cream, there is some take-home, big top type ice cream variants that were totally unprofitable for us, in our definition, and so we go out of that. There, we make first the decision to go out and it might take a little bit of time to migrate some of the consumers, but it's the right thing to do. And we have a few of those examples. But broadly, it should result in a stronger focus, stronger brands, and ultimately, stronger growth in a tougher environment.
Jeremy Fialko - Redburn Partners LLP, Research Division
Analyst
Could you just -- you talked about being 20% down in SKUs. Can you tell across what businesses and over what time period that is?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
No this is -- this happens across every business. A company like ours has over 100,000 SKUs in the business because of the different countries, sizes, promotional activities, the innovation pace. But for example, in Europe, we were relatively less developed, in my opinion, on leveraging the European menu of SKUs. So if every country cuts by 20% but you have better transferability of SKUs across Europe, you can actually give the countries more choice, although your total portfolio of SKUs is less. So you have to think about that smartly. We see the SKU reductions, obviously, Savoury has a lot of it because we've done a lot of it because that's a very -- more complex category. But also in the other areas, we've done that. And part of that is coming from reducing our promotional activities as we strengthen our innovations and strengthen our brand equities. So it's across-the-board and we want to give everybody credit for that. But for the Unilever people that are listening in, I also would say we still have some way to go there. So I hope that it's registered as well. So thanks, Jeremy.
James Allison
Analyst
Okay. Next up is Iain Simpson.
Iain Galloway Simpson - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Analyst
Just a couple of quick questions for me if I may. You talked about some inventory level change as a result of the SAP changes in Latin America. Could you just quantify the impact of that on organic growth either in your sort of Latin American business or at the group level, that would be extremely helpful. And then secondly, on Laundry, when you say that your sort of lean program, is 25% the way there? Presumably, is that sort of 25% in terms of time to implement or is it 25% in terms of sort of savings to be achieved? That would be very helpful.
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Thanks, Ian. I'll hand it over to Jean-Marc for LATAM. Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huët: Yes. So if you were to just adjust, to your question, Brazil would remain a double-digit growth business in the second quarter. Latin America would also remain a double-digit growth for the quarter.
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Yes. Then on Laundry, I would agree with you there. The rollout, we have done that by priority countries. And even in the priority countries where we rolled out, we haven't fully implemented these programs because sometimes, some structural changes in our sourcing or in our go to market need to happen. So when we talk about 25%, it is 25% of implementation potential across the world. A lot of the savings are still, therefore, to be hit as well, but it's not about the same 25%. Obviously, where we have implemented first is also where we got the biggest bang for the buck because that is obviously responsible. So I think in the savings time, we might be 40% on the way, and we still have 60% to go. I would be the first one to say being responsible for Home Care, that, that unit does an outstanding job defending itself against very aggressive promotion-oriented buy in of some of our competitors trying to get into some of the countries, the latest one is South Africa where we see the same continuous irresponsible behavior in the sales con. So we have to deal with that phenomena. We will always stay competitive. But at the same time now, I think we will have a focus on the mix and we will have a focus on low-cost business models that should guarantee continued margin expansion. And that is the most responsible way to run that business. And we're pleased about that one.
James Allison
Analyst
Javier Escalante, I think, Javier on the line. Javier?
Javier Escalante - Consumer Edge Research, LLC
Analyst
I'm trying to get this gross margin question dead for once and for all. And I guess one good way to do it, to the extent possible, would be if Jean-Marc please would kind of break out the 120 basis margin improvement between raw material inflation, or the lack of thereof, mix and the more structural part, which is the supply chain initiatives. Would that be possible? And tell us how that we are supposed to be looking at in the second half?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
No, Javier, I do respect -- I appreciate your question, but we are not going that granularly nor do we want gross margin discussions to be dead. We want gross margin discussions to be alive as well inside the company and outside all the time as we move it into the right direction. And moving that into the right direction, in a company of this size and complexity, means delivering the numbers but juggling many variables. And to go into that level of granularity is a little bit of a chicken and egg discussion we don't want to do. There's a clear, mix coming through. There's a clear ongoing savings program going through. There's a clear innovation path coming through with margin accretive innovations. There is a clear path of letting go of unprofitable activities. All these things add up. And then obviously, you have to deal with the volatility of commodity prices that might or might not get reflected in your ability to price or not price. So it's all -- we understand the dynamics of this, but we don't spend any time internally anymore to break that down and do the work for someone else. So don't let the gross margin discussions go dead. Keep it alive as well. Hold us accountable of continuing to improve it like we've now done for the second semester and like we are planning to do moving forward.
Javier Escalante - Consumer Edge Research, LLC
Analyst
Well, keep it alive. But the second question that I have has to do with the desire to improve the Food business and some of the weakness has to do with margarine and the issues there seems to be structural. And yes, I understand that you are working on the R&D part, but do you think that you may need to correct pricing vis-à-vis butter in order to stabilize volumes in margarine, both in the U.S. and Europe?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Yes. Thanks, Javier. Our direct answer is yes, not beating around the bush. In the U.S. we're actually growing share because we've actually done that. In the results you see now, including the gross margin improvement as a company, we have put prices back in the U.S. at competitive levels. We've been too lax, too late. And we know that in that business that we are in, if you're off pricing strategy, you're not even getting the right to play in the game. So we need to be far more disciplined there. And frankly, first of all, let me remind you that spreads is about 7% of our total business, but we are as passionate about that as the other 93%. The U.S. is growing again now and is growing share. We have some good innovations coming up. And we are taking that same approach now in Europe, and we are willing to do that to get that business growing again. All with a very responsible mindset of ensuring that the total Unilever company provides the top and bottom line progress. And you will see that coming through. On top of that, we obviously have stepped up our innovations. That takes a little bit of time, and as that gets through the whole value chain. But just let me remind you that, as of now, we have just introduced in the markets, Fruit D'or, which is a very important brand in France. As you know, the [indiscernible] , which is naturally bien -- good, a product which is off to a great start. The Bertolli has introduced new meal [ph] launches in the Benelux as we talk, and the goodness of sunflower campaign, which is obviously a much healthier product than butter is now hitting the U.K. We've also corrected the taste of Flora where we frankly did not have the consumer preferred taste. So we have taken quite some drastic steps quite fast in this business over the last 6 months that are now hitting the marketplace. But to come back to your question, pricing and staying on strategy on pricing is a must. And we have been fully managing the enormous cycle of up and down on commodity in this category. And I can only say shame on us, but we are fixing that now like we have fixed all the other things in the business that we're talking about.
Javier Escalante - Consumer Edge Research, LLC
Analyst
And can I squeeze one more thing? It's basically if you can help us, I think that you mentioned that currency neutral EPS went up 7%, but at least from what I understand based on consensus and based on my own model, below the line items were a drag in this first half relative to consensus estimates and my own estimates. Do you mind telling us what would it be your assessments of poor operating profit growth on a currency neutral basis please?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Yes, Jean-Marc? Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huët: Yes. Let me just try and give some help below the line to use it. I'm not going to comment on any of your expectations. First, reiteration. Just on our tax rate, was it around 27% for the year, should be 26%. The reason why it's somewhat higher is because of the tax on disposals, so 26% is the right number for the year. If you are looking at our interest expense, somewhat higher. Return on cash is a little bit lower. Cost of debt, roughly the same, a couple of one-off items in the second quarter. As you're looking at the second half of the year, remember that net debt is that much higher as we begin the second half than where we were on the 1st of January. So you need to take that into account and I think we've had enough discussion on gross margin, A&P and overheads for you to make the other calculations. The actual impact of foreign exchange, like I told you, in terms of top line is around 4.5%. In terms of core EPS, it's probably closer to 5%, 5%-plus for the year.
James Allison
Analyst
We need to be quick now because we're beginning to run out of time. But we've got Warren Ackerman on the line.
Warren Ackerman - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Analyst
It's Warren Ackerman here, Soc Gen. I've got 2 questions. The first one is I mean gross margins up 120 basis points but operating margin up 40 basis points in the first half. I mean, obviously, the operational leverage would have been a lot better if overheads were not up 40 bps. And the question is, how much of the 40 bps related to the first half last year regarding the Indian property profits? I think it was 20 bps on the operating margin in H1 last year. And then, Jean-Marc, should we expect the overheads to be back into positive territory in H2, especially given your comments regarding the enhanced plans on overhead that you talked about today? And where do you see that sort of extra potential coming from? And then the second one is I'm surprised we haven't had the emerging market question yet, so I guess I'm going to ask it. I mean, you've now delivered the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth at a time when the concern would be that growth would slow, which is obviously a very, very strong performance. Does that mean, Paul, that market share gains are accelerating in emerging markets and if so, where is that most evident despite your comment, I think, you used the word reinvigorated competition there.
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Yes. Thanks, Warren. I just want to be very quick. On the indirects, these are indeed one-off items, underlying indirects over the first half is flat. We expect the whole year to be down, so there's no question about that. And what you see there is the effects of some accrual in India. So there's nothing there to be worried about and we shouldn't spend more time on that. On the emerging markets, we are growing shares, that's absolutely true. But we've always said that the main driver for growth, Warren, in the emerging markets, is market development in our categories, which is well ahead of the economic development. At the same time, obviously, we continued to have an aggressive launch plan. We shared with you last time that we've launched in about 200 country-brand combinations just in the last 3 years alone, that continues. This year, there's another 40 or 50 being added to that and that is also holding up. If your question is, can you maintain the 10% growth rate in emerging markets? My answer is no, and I've said that every call we've had. Now, does that mean we don't do it next time? We'll see, because there's a lot of factors that play there. But it is unrealistic to expect continuous 10% growth, and the base getting higher and so the economy is getting tougher, but we are setting the bar higher in the company to deal with that, and hope to continue to move up our innovations, move up our competitive bite to compensate for that. So far, we've been able to do that, and I'm very pleased about that. I think that the balance between Europe, U.S., if you put it that way, and the emerging markets will slightly rebalance again to keep the overall growth of the company. But probably, the emerging markets coming off a little bit of the 10% would be realistic to plan on. There's no problem for us there. It's just the dynamics of what we're facing. But we're pleased with the 10% growth. Obviously, in Home Care, that's more than 10% growth. In Personal Care, it's more than 10% growth, to get the overall 10% growth. And these are obviously fabulous growth rates because they happen in markets where the competitive intensity is as enormous as it is in this part of the world.
Warren Ackerman - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Analyst
I'm sorry just to clarify the question on the overheads, are you saying -- sorry, it was up 40 bps in H1. Are you saying, Paul, that it will be down for the year, that's what would you said?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Because of the exceptional item for India, we have to -- if you took the exceptional item out, it will be down for the year.
James Allison
Analyst
James, James Targett on the line.
James Targett - Berenberg, Research Division
Analyst
It's James Targett from Berenberg. Firstly, just like following on from the emerging market question. Just trying to reconcile the solid performance in the second quarter with perhaps a more cautious outlook statement. I just wondered looking at each of the Asian and AMAC region, if there were any particular countries or categories that you were concerned about more than any other? And then secondly, just on the innovation pipeline, you said it was obviously very strong for the second half of the year. Is there anything we should think about in terms of sort of launch costs or extra A&P spend, which might affect the amount of the gross margin flows through the bottom line?
Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman
Analyst
Thanks, James. Again, the right things. In D&E, you say a more cautious outlook. I would say this company has always had the same words, the same outlook. We've always said it's getting tougher in the emerging markets. You all interpret that Unilever is going to do worse. That's for you to do that, that's not for us to do. But we will continue to manage the business on a tougher emerging market. We've proven that to be a very valid strategy. And that is one of the reasons I think why we've been able to keep this growth rate because we've adjusted our plans accordingly. So we will continue to be of the same mindset that the global economy is more likely to be a little bit tougher. I think we've lost 1% growth, according to the OECD, in the global economy just over the last 12 months. So that's the reality of it. That's nothing to do with Unilever. And then we have to figure out what to do. Let me just remind you that we have been in the emerging markets for quite a long time now, over 100 years in many of these places. If I take the last 25 years, our average growth rate in the emerging markets has been 9%. And there have been ups and downs a little bit in that one but it has been 9%. And I think moving forward, that potential is there. If you don't get too excited over 3 or 6 months, and make your life depend on that, you have a company that is very well-positioned to continue to capitalize on that. And frankly, if it's 9% or 8%, with the quality that we are now putting in there, including the profitability as you have noticed, I…
Operator
Operator
This conference has been recorded. Details of the replay number and access code can be found on Unilever's website. An audio webcast will also be available on Unilever's website, www.unilever.com and on the Investor Relations app.