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Unilever PLC (UL)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 3, 2011

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Transcript

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Thank you very much, and good morning to everybody. Welcome to the presentation of Unilever's Trading Statement for the Third Quarter of 2011. I will set the context for my presentation by spending a bit of time reviewing the business environment. I will then look at our overall sales performance before looking at our categories in a bit more depth. In particular, I will discuss some of the innovations and new market launches that are the key drivers of our growth. I'll then hand over to James who will describe our performance in the different geographies and review progress in the key area of M&A. Finally, I will conclude with some reflections on our outlook for the year 2011. But first of all, let me draw your attention to the usual disclaimer relating to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. Having read that, let's start. As we have been saying consistently, these are unique challenging times in which to be doing business. This year, we have faced substantial input cost inflation, continued intense competition and low continued consumer confidence, as disposable incomes fall throughout the developed world. It is against this backdrop that the sales performance that we have just announced is reassuring evidence that the transformation of Unilever is firmly on track. In markets that are growing between 5% to 6% plus or minus, globally, we have delivered underlying sales growth of 7.8% in the third quarter. We are growing ahead of our markets. And in many cases, also outperforming some of our formidable competitors, of which there are many. We are also happy with the quality of our growth, with volumes clearly positive despite price being increasingly prominent. In 2008, as you will remember, the last time prices increased significantly on the back of huge commodity cost inflation, we…

James Allison

Management

Thank you, Jean Marc, and good morning to everyone. Asia, Africa and CEE continues to be the powerhouse of Unilever's growth. Underlying sales growth in the third quarter was 12.4%, ahead of the market and underpinned by strong double-digit growth in many countries. Examples include large markets such as India, China, South Africa and Indonesia, but we also saw similar growth in many smaller markets such as Bangladesh, Korea and Ghana. This brings underlying sales growth for the year, so far, in D&E markets to 10.2 -- sorry, in Asia, Africa, CEE to 10.2%, almost equally split between volume and price. This is outstanding performance, strongly driving the growth of the group as a whole and achieved against the backdrop of continuing volatility in the external environment and immense competition. Let's not forget that 2011 has been a year in which the region's consumers have lived through the tsunami in Japan, geopolitical turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East and, more recently, the severe floods we have seen in Thailand and the Philippines. These parts of the world have often experienced volatility, but this year has seen more volatility than most, and yet our growth has still been impressively resilient. The strong performance is built on a foundation of technology-led innovation and rapid rollout of brands into new markets, but it also reflects our in-market development more broadly. For example, we've been developing the male Skin Care market across Asia, be it the introduction of Vaseline face care for men in Southeast Asia, Pond's male facial cleansers in China or be it Fair & Lovely face wash for men in India. We've also been investing in our infrastructure, for example, in our business systems. Our regional SAP platform has been implemented in multiple markets in 2011: North Africa, Vietnam,…

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

James, thanks a lot. So you've heard that we're continuing to make good progress with the transformation of Unilever into what we would like to call a sustainable growth company. The results, I believe, give clear evidence of this. We're growing ahead of the market, just as we set out to do, with 3 consecutive quarters of broad-based volume and price growth in what we call an increasingly tough environment. Let us not lose sight of the scale of the challenges we have faced during the course of 2011. Commodity cost inflation has been substantial, as you know. It's reached almost the levels that we saw in 2008. It's adding around EUR 2.5 billion of extra cost to our business this year. Many of our peers have faced similar challenges, but few, if any, to the same extent. But with our highly productive savings program and our measured pricing actions, we've managed this well, but it's clearly been a burden in a challenging year. At the same time, we've also seen continued weakness and uncertainty in the global economy. Our consumers find their disposable income under increasing pressure, especially in the developed markets, Western Europe and North America. Let me just take the U.K. as an example. Asda's Income Tracker report has made this point starkly clear. We highlighted this in our half-year results in August since we have seen no improvement since then, with household disposable income still around 8% down year-on-year. These trends have been exacerbated by the pricing actions that higher input costs have driven, with market volumes increasingly under pressure. And in the emerging markets, competition has remained intense, as peers attempt to challenge our strong market positions. We are determined to remain competitive in these conditions. And indeed, we have been. You can see that…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Michael Steib from Morgan Stanley.

Michael Steib

Analyst · Michael Steib from Morgan Stanley

It's Michael Steib from Morgan Stanley here. I have 2 questions please. Jean Marc, if I could just follow-up on the last remark you made in terms of the margin guidance. Everything you said sounded very consistent with what you said before, in terms of investing behind the brands, yet you're now saying margins to be flat to slightly down. Is this largely a result of just simply lower operating leverage in the business due to -- in a weak volumes in Europe and in the U.S.? Or do you actually see the need for more promotion as you look forward? And then secondly, you made many references to pricing throughout the year and in this quarter in particular. I'd be interested in what mix contribution is within that. Do you see a positive or a negative mix effect at the moment at the group level?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Michael, thank you very much for the question. Obviously, a very important one. And let me just briefly remind, when giving you the answer on margins, that we have had commodity costs this year of around EUR 2.5 billion more than the prior year in our raw and pack costs. And as you know, Michael, pricing always lags the commodity costs. So we've been pricing to recover absolute cost increases. I've mentioned in the speech that the consumer environment, the natural disasters, the political issues and this really is the backdrop to what we see as good performance. And it's in this context that we believe the right thing is to say today that our margins will be flat to slightly down, and it's very much a message to consensus, which increased somewhat since the second quarter. But related to your second point, we have seen some impact on the weak consumer environment on our mix, and that's inevitable. On the one hand, we're seeing some down trading in some of the developed markets, if I just see Rama or Surf, some of the discount channels. But also, there's the difference between growth taking place in D&E versus D and this, obviously, has an adverse impact as well. So there is some mix, which is weighing on our performance. And more strategically, mix is probably going to be one of the areas of most focus in the next 12 to 24 months, as we become more rigorous in that line item. So I would just summarize by saying commodity costs, weak environment, a lot of things happening and, obviously, mix having an impact on our performance.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Celine Pannuti from JPMorgan.

Celine AH Pannuti

Analyst · Celine Pannuti from JPMorgan

My first question is on Western Europe. Could you shed some light on the sharp volume decline? How much of this was from Ice Cream and overall, with the -- you had -- you've seen that there was a deterioration in the market since H1? That's my first question. My second question would be on the input costs. You have said EUR 2.5 billion. I presume that's -- is around 505 -- 550 basis point guidance you gave on the margin hit. At this stage, however, input costs progressed into the year-end. Are you starting to see some stabilization and, effectively, even some decelerating, decreasing input costs that would make your outlook for 2012 be better on that front?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Yes, Celine. Let me just take the second question first. This is a quarterly trading statement, so normally, we wouldn't talk about the type of P&L details. But just given the importance, the actual EUR 2.5 billion is absolutely in line with the 500 to 550. There has been some decline in the spot markets of some of our important raw materials, but I will just remind you that crude oil remains stubbornly high at $110. It's around $117 on average for the year. So there has been some easing, but it's still high and it's still volatile. So very difficult to predict what's going to happen in the future. You also need to take into account the impact of currencies. So net-net, while we're seeing a decline, overall, it's not to the same extent from a P&L perspective. We do not anticipate, in any single way, the types of increases next year that we've seen this year. It's obviously early days. It's not our business to forecast where commodities will be. We sell shampoo and peanut butter. But from our vantage point today, the comparisons are just going to improve as we enter and progress through 2012. Coming back to your first question on Western Europe. The overall market is probably stable to down in terms of volumes pricing up. But I would just take a step back. In terms of our own Unilever business, which is run by Jan Zijderveld, who's come from Southeast Asia, I think that we are pleased with the progress that we're making in implementing our strategy. We're more focused on innovation. The leadership has improved as it continuously does. We've strengthened the portfolio through Sara Lee having a better balance, and there are some markets, including yours, the French market, that has actually…

Celine AH Pannuti

Analyst · Celine Pannuti from JPMorgan

Okay. And just to follow up on the remarks you've done in terms of the consumer environment and -- have you seen a deterioration in that environment or not? Because on the other hand, you said that the market is stable.

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Yes. No, when I talk about our business, it's stable. I think that -- you read the newspapers as well as we do. We see actually a deterioration. We've been -- I think we were told that we were actually conservative, too prudent, 12, 18 months ago. What we've been sort of saying actually is reproducing itself. There is a lot of uncertainty. It's a depressed consumer environment, so that's the way we're managing our business. I wouldn't say it flattened out in any single way. We just see a depressed environment. One point that I did want to make to give you a more clarity on the number. The impact of this Ice Cream sales for Western Europe is around 150 basis points on our West European business.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mr. Marcus -- Marco Gulpers from ING.

Marco Gulpers

Analyst · Mr. Marcus -- Marco Gulpers from ING

Yes. Two questions on my side. First, Jean Marc, maybe you could address again one line in your press release, where you're basically highlighting pricing to recover costs rather than maintaining margins, and explain a bit more in detail what you're meaning there than just to recover costs rather than maintain margins. And the second question I have is related to that. It's again on the difficult retail environment. We know that earlier this week, some of your competitors have highlighted that you're stepping up the promotional efforts amongst others in the U.K., but you're also talking about the U.S. What risk is there on your view that, next year, some of the price increases will start to reverse as promotions are needed?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Okay. Well, let me take the first one, and I'll ask James to answer the second one on the retail environment. We are taking pricing judiciously. We're taking it where it's strategic. We're taking it where we're the leader, and we're taking it where there's innovation and where there -- we really think there's a proposition. But what we're trying to say is we're not going to increase prices demonstrably. It would not be the right thing for the consumer. And as a result, what we want to do is we want to drive as many different levers in the model. We are not going to increase the prices to cover the margin. We're going to do it with the absolute cost increases and then use different levers. The 2 levers I'm referring to, for example, supply chain savings being one. The second one being increasing the effectiveness in terms of our returns on marketing investments. We do not believe in this uncertain environment that we should go too far in the pricing. And that's, again, when you see the 5.8% underlying price growth, this is a reflection of what we've done over last 12 months, much set -- less so what we've done over last 3 months. Because right now, we are close to stable in terms of in-quarter pricing. On the second part of the question, James?

James Allison

Management

Marco, yes, I think you're asking questions particularly about the promotional environment and some comments that were made about the U.K. environment and also the U.S. Well, I think it's fair to say that we've seen a tough promotional environment for quite some time now. It's certainly not a new thing, probably in more general terms. I think we see that whilst the level of -- the number of promotions continues at very high levels, some -- in some cases, the level of promotional discounts are not quite as heavy as they have been in the past. And of course, that is driven by such commodity cost inflation that we're seeing. Specifically to the U.K., there were some remarks, I think, made about the level of promotional activity in Laundry. This is indeed a category that is promoted significantly. It's a very important category for the consumer. It's also important for the retailer. In the U.K. market, the dynamic is that it tends to be that we have the promotional slots one quarter, and then the next quarter our major competitor has the promotional slots. And then what you see in these situations is that if you look at any particular quarter, the percentage that we're selling on dealer is higher than others. So I think that there's nothing really out of the ordinary there. And I would stress again, I think, as we look forward, I don't think we see signs that the promotional intensity is going to continue. It'd probably take a while before it comes down, but not that it's going to exacerbate or get worse.

Marco Gulpers

Analyst · Mr. Marcus -- Marco Gulpers from ING

And in terms of A&P spending, maybe it's not the right time to ask, but would you say it's fair to assume that at this time in the market, there's a little bit more P than A?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

No. In actual factor, Marco, it's back to me. If -- as I analyze each and every month's, the mix of advertising and promotion, I'm very pleased with the trends on where we're spending our A&P. And it's usually 2/3-1/3, and it hasn't really changed over the last 12 months. Importantly, we're driving more effectiveness so we're getting more of a bang for our buck, but I'm pleased with the balance between A&P.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mr. Jeremy Fialko from Redburn.

Jeremy Fialko

Analyst · Mr. Jeremy Fialko from Redburn

Jeremy Fialko, Redburn here. A couple of questions. Firstly, just following up on the A&P question. You're still looking for A&P to be kind of broadly flat in absolute terms in 2011. That's what I recall your guidance being. Then secondly, a more specific question on your pricing in emerging market Home Care. You spoke about the pricing in developed markets or Europe being down. Does that imply you had pricing of kind of 15%, 20% or something like that within the emerging markets?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Yes, Jeremy. I don't want to go through each and every level of the P&L, but I think the most important point here that we're stressing is that we're investing in the long term and behind in our brands. And there's really not much changed to what we've said in the second quarter. We're trying to increase the quality. We're trying to get better, bigger, faster innovations into the marketplace, and that just continues. But I think that what's been working for us up until now is investing in the long-term, and that's what we're continuing to do. And in terms of the pricing in Laundry, the second part of your question in D&E, it's up around, I would say, 8% to 10%, something like that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Martin Deboo from Investec. Martin John Deboo - Investec Securities (UK), Research Division Jean Marc, it's Martin. I just want to follow up on Michael's first question and Marco's. I just really want to be crystal clear on this margin guidance. I mean, the way I'm seeing it, your commodity inflation is in line with guidance. Your pricing is ahead, and yet you're very slightly downgrading margin guidance. Can I offer you 2 alternatives here? Is this simply a question of arithmetic, that because pricing is more strong than you expect, there is a natural dilution effect on margin? Or is something going on in the cost lines that is more adverse than you expected? That's first. Can I ask a follow-up question? On Personal Care, very strong result this quarter, 6 percentage points up on the previous quarter. Maybe half of that is a soft comp effect and the fair share of the U.S. benefit, but it still looks like a strong result. Could you give some more color on Personal Care as well, please?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Sure. Well, let me start with the second one. In terms of Personal Care, it, indeed, has been broad based, and it's been a great performance. There are 1 or 2 areas where it's been somewhat inflated. Let me just give you an example. In China Personal Care, same period last year, we did our SAP implementation there. So the growth is a little bit better than on an ongoing basis. The same goes for the U.S., where we had our SAP implementation, which we have highlighted. Having said that, if you just look throughout the different categories, we see good momentum in Hair. We see some very good momentum in Deos, which has continued, as well as Skin Cleansing. And so I really think that this is a pleasing performance for Personal Care. I would not extrapolate. If you're growing at 5% plus in Q1, Q2 and then 11%, this is also, again, just a reminder, that it's over a 3-month period of time. But as we see the trends, we are very enthused and happy with the progress and with the share gains. And I would mention Deos, just as a story, over a long period of time, that just continues its performance. And I've mentioned Hair, that in places like Western Europe, we're really starting to see some trends, positive trends in the momentum of our business. Coming back to the first part of your question, in terms of the margin. The pricing is as expected. We've said that we had taken largely our pricing in the first half, and that is indeed the case. But I think that you just have to be very cognizant of the backdrop that we're in, be it commodity costs, consumer environment, natural disasters and the like, and we think this…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Waldschmidt, Merrill Lynch.

Robert Waldschmidt

Analyst · Robert Waldschmidt, Merrill Lynch

Two questions. One, you've given an outlook for pricing into fourth quarter. Given what we've seen in terms of volumes, particularly with the SAP impact and the deteriorating consumer, what is your view in terms of the volume growth in fourth quarter? And then secondly, in terms of margins. Assuming you are pricing to recover input cost at absolute level, if we get a further increase in input cost in next year, and I recognize it's early days, does that imply, potentially, you could have margin pressure again in 2012, so margins down?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Okay, I can be very short on both of these. If you just look at the commodity costs, between 500 to 500 bps this year, that's around an increase of, let's say, 15%. I do not assume that, that is going to happen next year. So the like-for-like comparables will be easier. And I would be quite shocked, but then you would as well, if that were not the case for 2012. On your first question, I'm not going to get into the details of volume or pricing on a quarterly basis. The point on pricing is a strategic one in terms of what we're doing, which is right in the marketplace for our consumers. I think most importantly, again strategically, as we close our books for the year, the most important test for Unilever in 2011 is that we have a good balance between pricing and volume, and that's our expectation.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Alain Oberhuber, MainFirst.

Alain Sebastian Oberhuber

Analyst

I have a one question about rollout on SAP and which markets could be impacted in the next couple of quarters and where we have to be and make some cautiousness or look at which markets concerning the growth rate then.

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Absolutely. Let me just start off by saying that we've done a huge amount, and it's a very strategic focus for ourselves. And we'll increase to around 99% by the end of next year. Let me pass over to James.

James Allison

Management

Alain, you certainly shouldn't anticipate any big SAP implementations, the likes of which you see in North America. That's very big, and that's why it's something that we call out at the Unilever level. The -- what remains is a little bit more work to do on the U2K2 SAP implementation in Asia, Africa, CEE. And in 2012, we will implement the system change in Russia and in Central Africa, and then that will then be completed. So there's really not very much left, Alain. I think that's our final question. Over to you, Jean Marc.

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

James, thank you very much, and thank you to everybody who has joined us this morning. And I'd like to thank you all for your questions and engagement. So just in summary and in closing comments. You've seen that our performance in the third quarter was good. Underlying sales growth at 7.8%, with a particularly strong performance, again, just over a 3-month period of time, but in any case, in Personal Care and continued performance in emerging markets. Growth was driven by market development, technology-led innovation and the rollout of our brands into new markets. There will be no letup in the pace of our activity in these areas. We're also pleased with the balance in our growth. Pricing strong at 5.8%, but volumes holding up well at 1.9%. Our long-term priorities, let me just remind everybody, remain the same: volume growth ahead of our markets; steady, sustainable improvement in our underlying operating margin; and importantly, strong cash flow. With that, I wish you all a good day, and I look forward to seeing many of you at our investor event in Turkey in a few weeks time. Thank you very much.