Earnings Labs

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Sun, May 10, 2015

$5.87

+1.21%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. At this time we would like to welcome everyone to Ultrapar's First Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. There is also a simultaneous webcast that may be accessed through Ultrapar's website at www.ultra.com.br/ri. Please feel free to flip through the slides during the conference call. Today with us we have Mr. Andre Covre, Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer, together with other executives of Ultrapar. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After Ultrapar's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions] We remind you that questions which will be answered during the Q&A session may be posted in advance in the webcast. A replay of this call will be available for one week. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the Safe Harbor of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Ultrapar Management, and on information currently available to the Company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Ultrapar and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I’ll turn the conference over to Mr. Covre, who will present Ultrapar’s results in the quarter and discuss about perspectives. Mr. Covre, you may now begin the conference.

Andre Covre

Analyst

Good morning, good afternoon to everyone. It’s a great pleasure to be here with you today. We'll discuss Ultrapar's performance in the first quarter and talk about the near term perspectives. I have here with me to help answering your questions, executive officers from our business units and Investor Relations team. Turning on Slide 3, we've our consolidated performance. Very pleased to start the year with another quarter of earnings growth in a very fast economic environment in Brazil. We had a strong growth of 41% in EBITDA boosted by some one-off effects in Ipiranga. Excluding these effects, consolidated EBITDA totaled $855 million up 22% over first quarter 2014. Net earnings totaled $387 million up 55% over the first quarter of 2014. These results show once again the resilience of our businesses, the characteristics that allows us to manage the company to grow even in a weak economy with high ensuring levels of inflation and interest rates as shown on the right hand side charts. In addition to the non-resilience of the Otto cycle in Ipiranga, of the bottle LPG and Ultragaz of the liquid storage in Ultracargo and of Extrafarma as a whole, the exchange rate is an important part of this resilient dynamics at Oxiteno which has dollarized markets. Therefore, under weaker economic conditions Oxiteno's volumes are generally weaker as well. The real devaluation benefits the company's results and in this first quarter the real devaluation was above 20%. In addition to the resilience we had made significant investments in the company which exceeded $2 billion real since early 2014 and benefitted the results. At Ipiranga and Ultragaz we extended the geographical footprints of the networks with increasing quality of the resellers and differentiation to clients. At Oxiteno we strengthened the focus on specialty chemicals with great differentiation…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Frank McGann from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Frank McGann

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Just - yes, a couple questions today. Could - one is, just in terms of seasonality, you started the year very strongly with some one-offs in the quarter. I'm wondering how you're thinking about the normal strengthening as you go through the year versus the first quarter. And then secondly, in terms of the insurance recovery for the fire, is – do you expect that will largely compensate for most of what you estimate the one half of last year's EBITDA, in terms of the costs of that?

Andre Covre

Analyst

Thanks for the question, Frank, and the presence. The estimate that I gave of an impact of equivalent to half of last year’s EBITDA is already considering insurance recovery So that’s the math effect and as I mentioned we expect most of the expenses be concentrated on the second quarter that’s when the fire took place and that’s when most of expenses and most of the recoveries be on the second half of the year. On seasonality, our strongest quarter on average tends to be the third quarter. The first quarter is an average quarter generally, we have had a number of one-off events in the quarter which if we put aside meant a 22% growth in EBITDA for the consolidated Ultra. As I mentioned the trends in the various business remain present with an acceleration in the case of Oxiteno and forward expectation that we have even stronger evolution for Oxiteno in the second quarter. On the other hand, we obviously have a negative one-off effect in Ultracargo this quarter. Though isolating the one-off effects for the first quarter and in the second quarter, I think we are overall in the similar trend.

Frank McGann

Analyst

Okay. If I could follow-up with one question just on Extrafarma. I mean, if you annualize the first quarter, you'd come up with something well below what you reported for the full year last year. I was just wondering how you're seeing the development in terms of earnings in Extrafarma?

Andre Covre

Analyst

Well, there's a great degree of seasonality in store openings. We can see that even in our previously existing businesses. In the case of Ipiranga, there has not been any new gas stations that I put in the network during the first quarter and then by the other hand a lot of it happens in the last quarter of the year. The pharma retail business is no different, the industry reported significant store openings at the end of the year and very small store openings in comparison now on the first quarter. So this is a characteristic of the market we expect still a bigger number of store openings in our case on the second quarter, in sometime during the second half of the year, we expect to reach 25 store openings for the quarter. So we’re training, we are moving on the plan that we have made it’s not worse, not bad than we had projected.

Frank McGann

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andre Sabrera from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Andre Sabrera

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Two questions, please, if I may, Andre. One on volumes of the Otto cycle. You already made some comments on the guidance, but I was just wondering how you are seeing the more recent data points. The year started strong, but then February and March a little bit weaker. It's hard to look month to month, but I just wondered how you were seeing the trading in volumes. And the second question related to that is how – how do you see Ipiranga will fare in a lower-growth environment? Do you think you'll still, given we'll not see price hikes from PBR soon if prices stay where they are – how are you seeing your pricing power? And how you are seeing your ability to cut or to keep the G&A in Ipiranga relatively flat, please? Thank you.

Andre Covre

Analyst

Andre, you know very well I'm not a big fan of commodity volumes. I don't think they – they are good indication of trends. Overall monthly volumes in January grew 6%, and they fell 8% in February, then they grew 6% in March and monthly volumes were fully of noise it’s nothing else because of the number of working days in this quarter because this was amplified because there was a significant pre-notice of the price increases. So there is probably some movement of volumes from February to January. So the best view I can give you on volumes is one that you know very well. Diesel follows GDP on the long run and Otto cycle fuels follow the size of fleet on the long run. You might see variations on a quarterly basis, but the correlation's pretty strong. In terms of a lower growth environment, we actually have had a decline in the sales of diesel for now at least two quarters and that has not changed the dynamics in the market which is focused on creating more value to the customer, our proposition is the well known Ipiranga gas stations, our competitors use their own tools but together we’re competing on who has got the best gas station that can serve best customers and that trend seems to continue.

Andre Sabrera

Analyst

Okay. Any, any, any efforts to cut G&A at Ipiranga or are you happy with the trend? Thank you.

Andre Covre

Analyst

Well, expenses and costs is obviously a thing of constant attention. Having said that, Ipiranga has been for a long time now a company where volumes have grown significantly and whenever you're on a growth path, would consider rather difficult if not dangerous to be a company that is growing fast with an extremely lean cost base. Should the environment of declining GDP be maintained then you start having a few percentage growth in volume overall and it might trigger the view of that vision however I think even the most pessimistic views of the Brazilian economy do not account for a sequence of GDP declining over the next several years. Perhaps this year, if you look at the Central Bank research published the 15 days most people are now expecting flat year for 2016 and growth in 2017. But, should that be different, and diesel sales continue to decline compensating the growth in Otto cycle then obviously expenses will be looked into a different optic.

Andre Sabrera

Analyst

Perfect. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Christian Audi from Santander. Please go ahead.

Christian Audi

Analyst

Thanks. Congratulations with the results, Andre, and the continued impeccable execution that you guys show. I had two questions. On Ipiranga when you talk about the outlook, and you were very clear in terms of maybe EBITDA growing between 13% and 17% although that is not a guidance – I just wanted, I was just curious when you talk about that, do you foresee a second half of the year in Brazil purely from a macro point of view kind of staying similar to what we've seen in the first quarter or eroding? I'm just trying to get a better grasp of as you look out and as you talk about your expectations. Do your expectations take into account similar economic conditions or deterioration in economic conditions? And then the second and final question. In the past you've always continued to show an improvement in your return on investment capital. Last year we had a bit of a pause. But, looking at the first quarter and the outlook for the second quarter, do you foresee your ability to continue to improve returns on your investment capital to continue? Thanks.

Andre Covre

Analyst

Hi Christian thanks for your presence and your questions. At Ipiranga the key drivers of our results have been investments and our differentiation strategy. That’s what combined has led to the levels of EBITDA growth in the recent past. When we look to the second half of the year, we continue to do same things, we’re not assuming that economy gets any weaker than already is. Most people currently expect GDP decline of about 1% in Brazil, when our crystal ball is no better than other people. So we are factoring that in and we’re seeing that fact of that in our diesel sales, which have declined 3% and little bit of that is the loss of the particular customer but the rest is the fact of GDP. In terms of capital, where returns indeed last year we had a pause. As we have had the chance to speak and explain, last year was a very unusual year because of two reasons first in Ipiranga we had a very strong comparison base to 2013 where we had three refinery price increases and the four 2013 had three meaningful inventory gains and 2015 only had – 2014 only had a small one towards the end of the year. And in the case of Oxiteno, we spend most of the year on a very unusual combination of weakening GDP and strengthening Real all the way to September and as you know a very artificial situation. Things have now been allowed to float normally and, hence, the significant evaluation of this year, probably compensating last year. So with all of this, I see last year as it's unusual point in our evolution of results returns and, therefore, we expect to continue to resume an improvement in capital returns this year.

Christian Audi

Analyst

Great. Last question. Turning to Oxiteno, we saw very high – $280 for ton margin in the first quarter. Based on your comments, that could improve in the second. My question relates more to the second half of the year. If we were to take an average of the first half of the year based on your comments today, what do you think we should assume for the second half of the year? A similar dynamic or maybe be more conservative about being able to reach a similar level of dollar per ton in the second half of the year?

Andre Covre

Analyst

Another way of looking at it Christian is that last year’s EBITDA was above BRL400 million, in average FX of BRL230 million and should the real stay about three, average FX of the year would be about BRL290 million. So that is $0.60 more the average FX and as you well know every $0.10 on the average FX contributes about BRL50 million of yearly EBITDA for Oxiteno, everything else the same. But that would take EBITDA alone only this FX on BRL400 million to $700 million, unfortunately not everything is the same, the economy is weaker, the volumes are declining. Therefore I’m not indicating that we’re going to come to that point but in many case even if you discount for a volume decline of other aspects, it’s a pretty significant growth in relation to last year which is not much different than the 50% that we just had on this quarter.

Christian Audi

Analyst

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Ileana Yank from UBS. Please go ahead.

Ileana Yank

Analyst

Hi thank you for taking my questions. Andre, if you had like limited amount of money – well, it might not be the case – but, would you rather spend it in adding more into fuel distribution or is better to go into something like in the Ultragaz, or maybe just focus more on the kind of retail drugstore part of your business? Thank you.

Andre Covre

Analyst

We put it on the highest return project, whatever that is. The one that has the biggest TVA?

Ileana Yank

Analyst

And what do you think could be like? Under current circumstances and the availability of assets and might be for sale, instance? I don't know if you have any preliminary assessment.

Andre Covre

Analyst

I'm not sure I understood you, Ileana. Could you repeat?

Ileana Yank

Analyst

Yes. Just something like, if you have a – given the current, you know, situation, potential assets that might be available for sale. And if, you know, you were to have a preliminary assessment, right, so where to, you know, spend more of the time to dig more about it and see what can bring you more returns. Would you have any views if it's really expanding onto more retail or really into, distribution? Or on the, on the – well, in which of these three areas?

Andre Covre

Analyst

Unfortunately, I can’t give you a really good answer because that depends on the specifics of the situation if you’re – you seem to be wanting to know if we have a preference of business to invest.

Ileana Yank

Analyst

Yes.

Andre Covre

Analyst

And the answer to that is no. We don’t have a preference of business to invest. If we have any business where we don’t think we can make good investment and achieve attractive capital returns, that’s a business we will sell and we’ve done that in the recent past. In 2010, we concluded that we could not create significant value on the trucking business of Ultracargo. And then we decided to sell it and we sold it.

Ileana Yank

Analyst

Okay. Fair, thank you.

Operator

Operator

I have no further question. This concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Andre Covre for any closing remarks.

Andre Covre

Analyst

Thank you very much for everyone’s presence and your interest in Ultra. Look forward to seeing you in about three months. Have a great weekend.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes Ultrapar’s first quarter 2015 results conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.