Earnings Labs

UGI Corporation (UGI)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Mon, May 8, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Sarah and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the UGI Corporation and AmeriGas Partners Second Fiscal Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Will Ruthrauff, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Will Ruthrauff

Analyst

Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. Joining me today are Hugh Gallagher, CFO of AmeriGas Propane; Kirk Oliver, CFO of UGI Corporation; Jerry Sheridan, President and CEO of AmeriGas Propane; and John Walsh, President and CEO of UGI. Before we begin, let me remind you that our comments today will include certain forward-looking statements, which management believes to be reasonable as of today’s date only. Actual results may differ significantly because of risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Please read our earnings release and our annual report on Form 10-K for an extensive list of factors that could affect results. We assume no duty to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that are different from expectations. We will also describe our business using certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the comparable GAAP measures are available in the appendix of our presentation. Now, let me turn the call over to John.

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Thanks Will. Good morning and welcome to our call. I hope that you have all had a chance to review our press releases reporting second quarter results and updated guidance for UGI and AmeriGas. Once again, the weather challenges provided us with an opportunity to demonstrate our ability to perform, while addressing difficult market conditions. We were pleased with our execution during the quarter as we delivered a strong performance despite weather that was much warmer than normal. In addition to executing well during the quarter, we also achieved several critical milestones on major projects in both the development and execution phases. Our financial performance in the quarter demonstrates the continued resiliency of our businesses in the face of extremely warm weather. For the second consecutive year, UGI is delivering superior financial performance, notwithstanding weather that is much warmer than normal. For many years, we have highlighted the benefits of our diversification which has enabled us to deliver strong long-term performance regardless of market conditions. Those benefits were quite visible in Q2 as we saw very strong contributions from UGI International and Midstream & Marketing, which helped offset the headwind of warmer-than-normal weather. I will comment on our financial performance and key activities in the second quarter. I’ll then turn it over to Kirk, who will provide you with a more detailed review of UGI’s financial performance, Jerry will follow with an overview on AmeriGas, and I’ll then wrap up with an update on our strategic initiatives. Our Q2 GAAP EPS was $1.24 and our Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.31 was about 6% above last year’s Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.24. Both quarters have been adjusted for the mark-to-market valuations of unsettled hedges and other items that Kirk will cover later. Our adjusted EPS of $1.31 represents the highest quarterly…

Kirk Oliver

Analyst

Thanks, John and good morning to everyone on the call. This table lays out our GAAP and adjusted earnings per share for this quarter compared to the same for Q2 of last year. As you can see, adjusted results exclude impact of mark-to-market changes in commodity hedging instruments, a loss of $0.02 this quarter versus a gain of $0.12 in the prior year. You can also see the integration expenses associated with the Finagaz acquisition in each quarter, the loss on extinguishment of debt at AmeriGas and unrealized losses of foreign currency hedges in this quarter. Our adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share for the quarter, is up $0.07 from last year in spite of significantly warmer than normal weather in all of our service territories. As shown on this slide, weather was warmer than the prior year in every segment, except for international. All of our business units contributed to the increase in earnings this quarter with the exception of AmeriGas where we experienced a very warm January and February, particularly east of the Rocky Mountains where our load is more sensitive to weather. In the international segment, where weather was slightly colder than last year, the earnings contribution was up $0.06 this quarter. As mentioned, AmeriGas faced very warm winter weather. Volume was down 6% on weather that was 3% warmer than last year, 13% warmer than normal, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $271 million for the quarter. This represents a decrease of $24 million versus the second quarter of last year where we experienced weather that was 12% warmer than normal. Jerry will spend some more time on AmeriGas in just a bit. UGI International contributed $123 million in adjusted income before taxes, a $9 million increase over last year. Weather was 1% colder than last year…

Jerry Sheridan

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks Kirk. And as both John and Kirk mentioned, really extremely warm weather had a significant impact on the demand at AmeriGas again this year. The quarter ended 13% warmer than normal and 3% warmer than last year. This was the second warmest Q2 on record with only 2012 giving us warmer weather and records have been kept for 122 years. As a result, retail volumes sold in the quarter was 363 million gallons or 6% below last year. Propane costs at Mt. Belvieu averaged $0.72 for the quarter or 85% above last year. Despite the rise in cost, we were able to realize unit margins $0.02 above last year for the quarter. Operating expenses were essentially flat, principally due to a 23% increase in the cost of diesel per gallon to run our vehicles and some insurance reserve adjustments offset by solid management of our payroll costs given the warmer weather. Primarily as a result of the record warm weather experience for the year, we are revising our guidance downward for the full year to $550 million to $580 million in EBITDA Turning to our growth thrust, AmeriGas cylinder exchange saw a modest increase in volume despite the warmer weather. Warm temps do impact the small cylinder business due to portable heat and patio heat use. The increase in volume came from the rollout of 1,200 new locations year-to-date. That business continues to grow nicely. Our national accounts program volume was also up 5%, again principally due to new accounts added. Both businesses are very solid. Year-to-date, we have completed two small scale acquisitions and we anticipate closing on three additional deals in the next few months. On the refinancing front, on February 13, the partnership completed the issuance of $525 million of notes due May 2027 and…

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Thanks Jerry. I would now like to spend a few minutes reviewing progress on our strategic investments and programs. We are continuing to make significant progress on our midstream strategy. We are bringing new assets on-stream and achieving critical milestones on major projects in development. Our Sunbury Pipeline is providing service to UGI Utilities in Central Pennsylvania and will initiate service to our base load power generation customer in August. UGI and our PennEast partners were delighted to receive a favorable environmental impact statement from the FERC last month. We hope to receive our FERC certificate once they have a quorum of commissioners. And we are now in a position to ramp up our local PennEast activities in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Our target completion date for PennEast remains the end of calendar 2018. We are also busy building out our LNG network as we bring Manning online and proceed with our Steelton, Pennsylvania storage and vaporization project, which will come on-stream by the end of the year. Our rapidly expanding network of Marcellus based midstream assets is playing a critical role in helping to close the infrastructure gap in our region. The Gas Utility is awaiting the final order confirming the Pennsylvania PUC’s recent vote to approve an increase in the cap for our discharge from 5% to 7.5% for our PNG and CPG units. This increase would reduce the regulatory lag as we deploy record levels of capital at UGI Utilities in support of our infrastructure replacement and reinforcement programs. Utilities capital investments for growth and infrastructure will exceed $1.1 billion over the next 4 years. Our teams have done an exceptional job of planning and executing an unprecedented level of project activities. At AmeriGas, our investments in new customer service and logistics tools are enhancing service levels…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Gabriel Moreen from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Gabriel Moreen

Analyst

Hey, good morning everyone.

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Good morning.

Gabriel Moreen

Analyst

I had a couple of questions on – wanted to first ask on the peaking services. I think Kirk mentioned $7 million additional margin year-over-year. Can you just talk about to what degree all that additional margin I guess is kind of contracted and recurring versus what maybe just opportunistic from market conditions?

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Yes, Gabe, in terms of peaking services, the vast majority of that is contracted. Peaking service is basically a contracted provision of supply that’s paid for whether it’s utilized or not and what we are experiencing in the Midstream business is an increased demand for peaking as our utility and other utilities add to their customer base and their sort of calculated peak increases. So that’s driven by new contracts underpinned by growth in LDC customers.

Gabriel Moreen

Analyst

Thanks, John. And if I can also just turn maybe to PennEast, can you talk about next milestones, I guess at the state level in terms of any remaining regulatory approvals? And I know that some stake – a stake in PennEast and the project changed hands recently. Can you talk about – I know you can’t speak for the seller or the buyer. But can you maybe talk about that or any perspective on some of this stake changing hands?

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Just in terms of the, yes, the change in the movement of ownership from PSEG to Spectra, obviously, it’s two existing partners with Spectra now increasing their stake to 20%, which is great. I think the critical point on that is that PSE&G remains a contracted capacity holder for PennEast, which is crucial in that we’re basically serving all the utilities in New Jersey with that pipeline, and that transaction doesn’t impact that. So we feel good about that transaction taking place. Spectra is a great partner and it’s great to have PSE&G sort of in that roster with a significant commitment to take – to utilize that capacity. The next steps in Pennsylvania and New Jersey involve a series of activities with the TEP around water permits in particular, but a series of permits that – processes that we will go through. And then we can also conclude surveying and begin the process in terms of land acquisition once we clear certain hurdles. So it’s a lot of on-the-ground activity sort of figuratively and literally in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Gabriel Moreen

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, John. And then last one from me just on the PNG rate case, can you talk about just to what extent – you usually don’t necessarily answer allowed ROEs and requested ROEs. If you can speak to that maybe, but also just anything structural in that rate case beyond just what you are asking for in terms of the increase?

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

It’s pretty straightforward. What we are seeing, Gabe, is a significant ramp up in capital spend across all the utilities and that’s reflected in this request for the rate increase. We were pleased that we received for PNG and CPG the increase in the DISC cap from 5% to 7.5%, but nothing unique or special. It’s really just reflective of the significant commitment we have made over the last 6, 7 years, especially to ramp up the capital spend and invest in infrastructure in the PNG service territory.

Gabriel Moreen

Analyst

Thanks, John.

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you, Gabe.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Sharon Lui

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Hi, good morning.

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Good morning.

Sharon Lui

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

I was wondering if you could just touch on the acquisitions you mentioned at AmeriGas, what’s the total investment of those acquisitions and the regions that you are expanding into?

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Yes. So, we have completed two deals so far this year and we expect three more to follow. Total investment to-date is in the kind of $20 million range and what we think for the year, it will be more like $49 million when we are all done.

Sharon Lui

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Okay, great. And with regards to revised EBITDA guidance, can you maybe talk about, I guess, with the balance of the year, what would be the key drivers going to the high-end of that range versus the low end of that range?

Jerry Sheridan

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Well, you never know where the weather is going to go take us the rest of the year. So, Q4 can be a big deal for us and September really drives everything. That’s why the fact that we are a 9/30 year end gives us fits every year. Sometimes you can get good weather in September. You can get off to great fall start. There is lumpiness with how much gas is in the tank. Obviously, we have missed a lot of deliveries this year, because customers didn’t need us, but are those tanks draining down and could they need a delivery into the early fall? Those are the kinds of things that would push us to the higher end.

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Just – sorry, Jerry. Just to add that one of the nice things about the second half of the year is although September has got weather and April does as well, the majority of consumption in the second half of the year is non-weather sensitive volumes in areas such as national accounts and ACE cylinders and motor fuel and those are all areas where AmeriGas as we touched on earlier is performing extremely well.

Sharon Lui

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Okay, great. Thank you.

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Chris Sighinolfi

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Hey, good morning, John.

John Walsh

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Good morning, Chris. How are you

Chris Sighinolfi

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

I am well. Thanks. I had a couple of questions. I guess to start, can you just remind us on international, I think if I recall correctly is that Finagaz acquisition was closed almost 2 years ago? So I think it’s been a longer integration process for that and some of the prior deals you made, like the BP deal in Poland, for example. Can you just walk us through – I think, you had said in prepared remarks, you expected to sort of close the integration process over the next year. Just may be some of the things that have led to more of a protracted integration there than we have seen with some of the other acquisitions?

John Walsh

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Sure. It is a longer integration process although it’s pretty much in line with what we had expected when we closed the deal. And I think part of the length and duration of the plan relates to scale and the alignment of various sort of entities as we innovate the business in France. So that takes time. As I said, it wasn’t surprising to us because we are fortunate we have a really good team on the ground in France and a really well-defined plan that made those milestones clear even before we did the deal. So, I think it’s scale and just the organizational complexity. And the good news is that, as we proceed through these various stages and we are well along now, we will end up with an integrated organization model that is less complex and basically a single sort of entity from an operating model standpoint. So a lot of work, but no surprises in terms of the integration plan itself and well executed by the leadership team in France.

Chris Sighinolfi

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Okay. So it’s the same sort of set list of things that you have been doing with prior deals, this is just the scale of its much, much broader, is that a right way to interpret that? Okay.

John Walsh

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Yes. That’s right. Yes. And there are specific regulatory steps in France that we are following that drives some of the timing. But basically, the same model absolutely, same gateway.

Chris Sighinolfi

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks for the clarity on that. Switching gears just to touch on AmeriGas, I was just curious, I mean we have kind of talked about this at some of your Investor Days in the past and I am just curious to circle back on it, just given the successive warm winters back to back here in ‘16 and ‘17 and where – what that’s done to sort of AmeriGas profitability and I understand that in a normal weather environment it would be far different, but just curious as it pertains to the current structure, there is a lot of MLPs across sort of the MLP landscape that are addressing some of the structural elements of their integrations, the IDRs in particular, I know you guys pressed it into the 50% splits a couple of years ago. And I am just curious sort of how if anything has – how the discussions if anything has changed, I guess between AmeriGas explored [ph] UGI as the sponsor and what we might look to on a go forward, if let’s say 2018, God forbid is the same sort of weather dynamic we are seen in the last 2 years?

John Walsh

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Yes. I think one of the key things to point out that differentiates us as a propane distribution company from many other MLPs is we have a weather sensitive business. We are not particularly sensitive to commodity movements. And I think a lot of the restructurings – restructuring have taken place around entities that were exposed to the commodity or – and sort of indirectly connected to the commodity, meaning drilling and production levels. Not to say that what we have is an easy challenge. We have had two very warm winters in a row, which clearly have shown up in terms of the weather sensitivity of the business. We have addressed that in a number of ways. One, Jerry and his team have done a good job of continuing to work at making more of our cost variable and taking costs out of our business while retaining our ability to serve customers well and serve demand when cold weather returns. So that’s been a significant series of activities that will be ongoing. The other thing we have done, as you know is adjust the distribution growth rates to reflect the warmer weather of both last year and this year and we will continue with taking those actions. And then the boards will obviously retain their responsibility and role in terms of oversight. But we don’t feel at all constrained in AmeriGas in terms of – our cash generation is strong, our access to capital markets is there. So the business is able to execute, but we will certainly have and will continue to step back at both the AmeriGas Board level and UGI Board level and look mid-term to long-term and think about structure. And in fact, that’s the process we go through every summer. So that process is starting now. So that has been and will continue to be an ongoing dialogue, but we think the actions we have taken have positioned us well moving forward. And we have no idea what weather will be. Next winter could be warm, could be very cold. So that’s the balance we need to strike making sure we have got an operating model that positions us to serve demand that can be highly variable and that’s the biggest challenge in the business. But underlying cash flow, underlying performance remains strong.

Chris Sighinolfi

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Okay. I appreciate your updated thoughts on that. I guess final, final question from me is just, as it pertains to the midstream expansions in Mid-Atlantic and Pennsylvania, do you – you have done a lot John, on the natural gas side obviously, with the gathering pipe expansions with what you are advancing on PennEast, I am just curious on the NGL front, there is a couple of companies that are targeting some large scale NGL transportation projects in the state. Obviously, you have exposure to that through AmeriGas, I was just curious if there was an appetite – it’s not something we really talked about in the past, but just because that’s happening sort of in your neighborhood, wondering what the appetite to potentially participate if there is an opportunity for you to on something like that?

John Walsh

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

I think we are always open to thinking about how we can kind of push the boundaries of our strategy. And it’s a good point in terms of fundamental changes that are taking place, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with respect to availability of NGLs. And obviously, we are most interested in propane and butane. So we would be interested in looking at opportunities that would enable us to leverage all the demand we serve for propane and butane, both in the Eastern U.S., but also in Europe as well. So that’s something we are open to as long as it’s the type of investment that aligns with the strategic capabilities of our company and how we position ourselves with respect to very limited commodity exposure. But you are right to point out, there is a lot of change going on in investment. So it’s appropriate for us to be focused on that and thinking about opportunities that could emerge for us as a major distributor of LPG and to think about potential investments.

Chris Sighinolfi

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Okay, I appreciate all thoughts and the time this morning.

John Walsh

Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Your line is open

Great. Thanks Chris.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. John Walsh, I will turn back call over to you.

John Walsh

Analyst · Sharon Lui from Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you, Sarah. Thank you, everybody for your time and attention this morning. We will see some of you at the AGA and we will talk to others on our Q3 call. Thank you.