Mike Cole
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open
Thank you, Will, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results reflect improving top-line stability with solid organic unit growth and continued share gains, while elevated freight costs weighed on profitability. Net sales were $1.73 billion, ahead of plan and up 11% from $1.56 billion last year. Volume increased 6%, with 4% organic unit growth and a 2% contribution from acquisitions. Pricing added 5%, reflecting higher lumber prices passed through to customers and programs in place to offset other inflationary pressures. Performance varied across our business units. Deckorators, Structural Packaging, Protective Packaging, Concrete Forming, and Commercial all delivered strong growth, supported by share gains and stable market conditions. That growth was partially offset by lower volumes in ProWood and Factory Built, primarily due to soft end market demand. Adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, down $21 million from last year, and our margin was 6.9%, compared with 9%. The decline was driven primarily by higher transportation costs. As a reminder, spot rates began rising in April and peaked this summer as flatbed carrier capacity tightened. As a result, our transportation costs, net of fuel surcharges, increased $19 million year-over-year, reducing our margin by 1.3 percentage points. While that is a sequential improvement from the second quarter, we expect rates to remain elevated for the balance of the year as our teams continue working to mitigate the impact. In addition, our newly acquired and greenfield operations reported negative EBITDA of $3 million on a combined basis. Excluding these two factors, EBITDA across our business units increased $1 million from last year, with higher gross profit in every business except PalletOne, Site Built, and ProWood. Simply put, $19 million of higher freight and a $3 million loss from newer operations was partially offset by a $1 million improvement across the rest of the business. That resilience demonstrates the value of our balanced business model. Turning now to our segments. Retail sales were $635 million, up 7% from last year, reflecting 6% higher pricing, a 1% contribution from acquisitions, and flat organic units. By business unit, ProWood units declined 4%, and Edge units were flat, offset by 21% unit growth in Deckorators and a 10% contribution from our MoistureShield acquisition. While lower year-over-year, ProWood volumes held steady sequentially in a seasonally softer quarter, and we believe the business continues to outperform the broader market. Deckorators continues to grow well above the market, led by strong demand for our branded decking. Decking sales increased 69%, including 70% growth in our mineral-based Surestone products, which are up 45% year to date. Improved throughput at our Selma and Buffalo plants allowed us to reduce our Surestone backlog to $18 million at quarter end, down from $30 million at the end of the second quarter. Our traditional wood plastic composite decking also grew well above the market, up 69% in the quarter, including 44% from the MoistureShield acquisition. Railing sales increased 2% in the quarter, but declined 8% year to date, reflecting the loss of a distributor at our Ultra Aluminum location. For the year, we targeted $100 million of sales growth in composite decking and railing, consisting of $90 million from decking and $10 million from railing. We now expect decking growth of about $85 million, which includes a necessary $10 million inventory build at our ProWood distribution locations. The $5 million shortfall reflects the continued ramp toward throughput targets at our Buffalo plant, which began operating in April. In railing and other products, we expect to fall about $15 million short of our target, as anticipated share gains did not materialize and we lost a significant customer. In total, that puts us at roughly $80 million of growth against our $100 million goal. Railing remains a key area of focus and opportunity in 2027, supported by the recent launch of our Align aluminum railing with DropLock technology. Retail adjusted EBITDA was $34 million, down $6 million from last year, and margin was 5.4%, compared with 6.7%. The decline was driven by $8 million of higher transportation costs, net of fuel surcharges in ProWood and Deckorators. That masked improving profitability in Deckorators as we continue to increase throughput. In retail, our financial priorities are clear: improve ProWood profitability by expanding its distribution of Deckorators products, achieve throughput and cost out targets primarily in composite decking, and keep growing sales of new value-added products like Arris trim and TrueFrame joists. Packaging sales increased 18% to $466 million, driven by 9% organic unit growth and a 6% contribution from acquisitions and 3% higher pricing. Demand was consistent with recent quarters and pricing remained competitive, yet we continued to gain share with key customers in all three business units. Structural Packaging volumes grew 14% on new customer wins by our strategic accounts team, which saw our national account sales increase 35% in the quarter. PalletOne volumes increased 18%, driven by recent acquisitions and 1% organic unit growth. Protective Packaging volumes grew 5% as our new greenfield locations continue progressing towards sales targets. Packaging adjusted EBITDA was $27 million, down $7 million primarily due to higher transportation and material costs. Integration of recent PalletOne acquisitions and unabsorbed overhead at our Protective Packaging greenfield operations were partially offset by improved profitability in Structural Packaging. Construction sales increased 11% to $552 million, reflecting a 4% increase in units and 7% higher selling prices. By business unit, Site Built organic units grew 12%, driven primarily by company-specific initiatives, including momentum in our Frame Forward solution selling approach and growth in light gauge metal components and alternative materials. To be clear, we do not view this as a sign of a broader recovery in new residential construction, where demand remains challenged. In our traditional engineered wood components business, builder demand remains soft, pricing is competitive, and input costs remain elevated. Factory Built units declined 10%, primarily due to our planned exit of certain lower-margin commodity sales and a 6% decline in industry production. Positively, an improved value-added sales mix enhanced margins. Commercial and concrete forming continue to benefit from positive demand trends and share gains, with volume growth of 20% and 6% respectively. Construction adjusted EBITDA was $38 million, down $4 million, driven by pricing pressure in Site Built and higher material costs overall. These headwinds were partially offset by growth and operating leverage in commercial and concrete forming. Factory Built results were flat as a more favorable product mix offset lower volume. Across the business, we continue to balance cost discipline with investment in long-term growth, and we are pleased with our progress this quarter, including continued growth in new products, which represented 8.7% of sales compared with 6.8% last year, led by composite decking, mixed material packaging, light gauge metal components, and concrete forming solutions. We remain on track to meet or exceed our $60 million cost-out target, supported by capacity consolidations we completed last year. We see additional savings opportunities next year as we continue to evaluate our portfolio and footprint. SG&A remains on plan for the year as we maintain the savings achieved last year. Turning to our balance sheet and capital allocation, we continue to operate from a position of financial strength. At the end of September, we had approximately $677 million of cash and no borrowings outstanding on our revolver for total liquidity of approximately $2 billion. Our balanced business model continues to generate meaningful and consistent free cash flow. Year to date, we have converted 75% of our adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow, in line with our historical range of 70%-80%. That cash generation has allowed us to grow our dividend and repurchase shares more aggressively at attractive prices. Our top capital allocation priority remains growth, both organic and from acquisitions, that supports higher margins and stronger returns over time. As Will noted, that means investing in our higher-margin core businesses, capacity for new value-added products, and automation and productivity while remaining disciplined on valuations and returns. We also intend to return capital to shareholders by growing our dividend in line with long-term expected free cash flow growth and by repurchasing shares to offset dilution from stock-based compensation. We make additional repurchases opportunistically when we believe our shares are trading below intrinsic value. Recently, we've directed more free cash flow toward buybacks while preserving the balance sheet strength to fund our growth investments. With this framework in mind, our board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share payable in December, a 3% increase from the dividend paid a year ago. In May, our board approved a new $300 million share repurchase authorization effective through April 30, 2027. Year to date, we have repurchased $183 million of shares, roughly 5% of our current market capitalization, at an average price of about $84. That includes $41 million in the third quarter. We expect capital expenditures of approximately $150 million-$175 million in 2026, including approximately $75 million of maintenance CapEx. This updated outlook reflects our continued discipline around capital deployment, and we retain the flexibility to shift growth investment between greenfield projects and acquisitions based on market conditions, available opportunities, and expected returns. I'll close with a few comments on our outlook. Our full-year outlook is unchanged. We continue to expect current macro pressures to persist through year-end, with end market demand slightly down in each segment based on our sales mix. We also expect input costs, particularly energy and transportation, to remain elevated. Freight costs have recently stabilized, but at levels well above last year, and they will continue to weigh on profitability. Overall, we expect stabilization in certain businesses and continued share gains across our portfolio to help offset headwinds in markets tied to new residential construction and pallet production. Looking ahead to 2027, our preliminary view is that many of the challenges we faced in 2026 will continue, and visibility into the timing of an end market rebound remains limited. That said, we see clear opportunities within our control to drive near-term improvement. These are some examples. Transportation: we estimate elevated freight costs will have a $65 million net impact on our full year 2026 results, and our teams are focused on improving that result in 2027. New operations: as our greenfield investments mature and we further integrate recent acquisitions, we expect profits in those operations to improve. Share gains: we continue to target share gains in all our business units, especially Deckorators, Structural Packaging, Factory Built, commercial, and concrete forming. Innovation: we anticipate continued strong growth in new product sales. Productivity: we expect to benefit from the efforts we've made to improve productivity and capacity utilization and reduce our cost structure. M&A: we will continue to pursue acquisitions that meet our strategic objectives and return requirements. We believe these actions position UFP well to create value as our markets recover. With that, we'll open it up for questions.