Todd Tuckner
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead
Thank you, Sergio. Good morning, everyone. It is a privilege to be with you today as Group CFO, especially at this watershed moment for UBS. Since my appointment, my focus has been on the financial consolidation of the two firms, progressing the work done on transaction adjustments, optimizing our liquidity and funding position, firming up our cost savings and enhancing financial reporting controls for the expanded group. Regardless of whether staff come from Credit Suisse or UBS, I’ve been extremely impressed with the dedication of the finance team. I’m proud of what we, as a unit, have already been able to accomplish, and we, like the entire firm continued to execute at pace. We recognize that this is a complex deal, but our aim is to be clear and forthcoming in explaining the financial implications of our actions during this critical period and beyond. Today, I’ll cover our second quarter operating performance, the impact of the merger on our balance sheet and capital as of day one, and finally, our integration plan and outlook. Let’s start with the quarter on slide 17. I’ll refer to UBS Group AG’s consolidated results, which this quarter include one month of Credit Suisse’s operating performance presented under IFRS and in U.S. dollars. On a reported basis, the second quarter profit was $29 billion, both pre- and post-tax. These results were largely driven by the net impact from items related to the acquisition, principally negative goodwill of $28.9 billion and integration-related expenses and acquisition costs. Excluding these items, the Group pre-tax profit was $1.1 billion, of which $2 billion from the UBS subgroup and negative $0.8 billion from the Credit Suisse subgroup. Turning to slide 18. The negative goodwill of $28.9 billion is calculated as the difference between the consideration UBS paid and the fair value of the acquired net assets after taking into account the various PPA adjustments of negative $25 billion. The roughly $6 billion difference between the negative goodwill reported today and the amount included in the Form F-4 registration statement just prior to closing is principally explained by two factors. First, Credit Suisse generated operating losses over the first five months of 2023 that were not captured in the F-4, which was prepared as if the transaction occurred on December 31, 2022. Second, we applied additional net negative PPA adjustments to Credit Suisse’s financial assets and liabilities, reflecting a more detailed fair value assessment post-closing. The total net PPA adjustments of negative $25 billion consists primarily of marks of negative $14.7 billion in connection with financial assets and liabilities. This includes negative $12.4 billion on mainly fixed rate accrual assets and liabilities, of which around $8.5 billion relates to our core businesses and around $4 billion to Non-core and Legacy. In addition, we made negative $2.3 billion of further necessary adjustments to fair value positions, mostly related to Non-core and Legacy. The negative $8.5 billion of marks on core business accrual financial instruments, include for example, PPA adjustments on the Swiss mortgage book, which were almost entirely interest rate driven. The majority of the accrual basis positions are expected to mature within the next three years to four years and if held to maturity will pull to par. Of the total marks on accrual positions, $6 billion pre-tax or $5 billion net of tax, our CET1 capital neutral as FINMA has granted us transitional relief, which mainly applies to Swiss mortgages. The transitional treatment is subject to linear amortization concluding by June 30, 2027. The negative marks of $2.3 billion on fair value assets and liabilities that I mentioned earlier, reflect UBS’ assessment of the complexity, liquidity and model risk uncertainties in the book, as well as the relevant markets for potential strategic exits. We also made PPA adjustments of negative $4.5 billion to capture UBS’ determination of Credit Suisse’s provisions and contingent liabilities related to litigation, regulatory and similar matters. This includes $1.5 billion of incremental provisions Credit Suisse took in the second quarter. Other net PPA adjustments totaling to negative $5.5 billion largely relate to GAAP differences associated with pension accounting, but also goodwill and intangibles, and fair value marks on non-financial assets and liabilities, including software and real estate. Of the total negative $25 billion of PPA adjustments, negative $17 billion is CET1 capital relevant, with the balance relating to the $5 billion regulatory waiver I mentioned earlier and other items that are filtered out of CET1 capital, such as pension accounting differences, goodwill and intangibles. Overall, we believe the negative goodwill, including the PPA adjustments therein, in addition to underpinning almost $240 billion of acquired RWA provides us with sufficient capacity to absorb the cost to achieve our two key savings objectives; first, an efficient wind down of the Non-core businesses and associated overhead we acquired; and second, positive operating leverage and synergies in our core franchises, all while remaining capital generative over the integration time line. We are highly confident that we can successfully integrate Credit Suisse, enhancing our business model and operating metrics, while continuing to ensure we maintain world class capital ratios and a balance sheet for all seasons. On page 19, we illustrate how the transaction strengthens key financial measures from day one, offering us a highly attractive starting point as we commence this journey. Since the acquisition, our capital position is even stronger with almost $200 billion total loss absorbing capacity and a CET1 capital ratio of 14.4%. Additionally, our tangible book value per share is up 49% quarter-on-quarter, and today, we manage over $5.5 trillion of invested assets with a unique and meaningful presence in all the major markets across the globe. Remaining on capital on slide 20. The strength of our balance sheet is the foundation of our success and the reason why we were able to restore financial stability and client trust in such a short amount of time. As of the end of June, as just mentioned, our CET1 capital ratio was 14.4% and our CET1 leverage ratio was 4.8%. Included in our capital ratio this quarter are the impacts from the closing of the Credit Suisse acquisition, including a $10 billion operational risk RWA reduction from diversification benefits and a combined lower forward-looking risk profile. Looking through to the end of the year, we expect our CET1 capital ratio to remain around 14% as the benefit of RWA reductions, improvements in our underlying profitability mainly from cost saves and CET1 capital relevant pull to par effects from the PPA adjustments are expected to largely but not fully offset integration-related expenses. We also expect to maintain a CET1 capital ratio of around 14% and a CET1 leverage ratio of more than 4% over the medium-term. You have often heard us referring to our balance sheet for all seasons and our capital-generative operating model that allows us to service clients and invest in the business through the cycle. It’s how we’ve operated over the last decade and it’s how we intend to continue to operate going forward. So rest assured, maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons will remain among our very top priorities. On liquidity and funding on slide 21, we closed the quarter with an average liquidity coverage ratio of 175%, well above our prior quarter level and a net stable funding ratio of 118%. The liquidity coverage ratio increase largely reflects the elevated HQLA levels at Credit Suisse, including the effect of the usage of the Swiss National Bank facilities. As Sergio highlighted, positive net new deposits in the past few months enabled us to repay ELA+ and terminate the public liquidity backstop facility as announced earlier this month. We expect to continue attracting net new deposits, and as of this week, we’ve already seen in the third quarter, $13 billion of positive net new deposit flows in our combined Wealth Management and Swiss franchises. While this will help us narrow the inherited funding gap and continue to manage our liquidity coverage ratio at prudent levels, we expect to resume execution of our funding plans shortly. In addition to maintaining significant liquidity and funding buffers on a consolidated basis, we’re actively managing the allocation of financial resources among our significant legal entities, which also have standalone funding requirements and will continue to operate, while we progress towards our target legal entity structure. We’re working towards merging Credit Suisse AG into UBS AG in 2024 as this is a critical step to removing resource allocation bottlenecks and enabling the realization of business and operational efficiencies. Now on to slide 22. Excluding Credit Suisse’s performance in June, the effects of the acquisition I mentioned earlier and a gain on sale of $848 million in Asset Management last year, UBS’ pre-tax profit in the quarter was $2 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Before turning to the UBS subgroup business division, starting on page 23, let me first point out that for the second quarter, the negative goodwill, as well as a substantial portion of integration-related expenses have been retained and reported in Group functions. Starting with the third quarter, we intend to consolidate the reporting of our business divisions across the UBS and Credit Suisse subgroups, and will report integration-related expenses in the respective combined segments. All references to figures are in U.S. dollars and comparisons are year-over-year unless stated otherwise. In Global Wealth Management, we delivered net new money of $16 billion, the strongest second quarter in over a decade, with inflows across Switzerland, EMEA and APAC, and despite $5 billion in seasonal tax payments in the U.S. We also delivered net new fee generating assets of $13 billion or an annualized growth rate of 4% with positive flows across all regions, as well as net new deposits of $5 billion. These strong inflows across net new money, fee-generating assets and deposits, demonstrate our continuous focus on active client engagement and the trust our clients place in us. This was especially important during a quarter where the macro backdrop and developments with Credit Suisse placed a premium on our investment advice and the stability of our GWM franchise. Profit before tax was $1.1 billion, down 4% despite strong growth in EMEA and Switzerland of 15% and 9%, respectively. Positive topline contributions from all regions outside of Americas supported a 1% revenue increase, which was more than offset by higher expenses. In the Americas, revenues were down 4%, mainly as net interest income reflected continued rotation into higher yielding deposits and investments from transactional and suite deposit accounts. Although, we expect NII in the Americas to continue to tick down sequentially from ongoing cash sorting and deleveraging in the current rates environment, we nevertheless continue to see the U.S. market as a strategic priority for us and hence we continue to invest in the business for future growth. As a result, we expect our pretax margin in the Americas to be low double-digit to mid-teens over the near-term. On to total GWM revenues. Net interest income was up 14% year-over-year and down 3% sequentially. The latter reflecting mix shifts and lower deposit and loan balances, partly offset by higher deposit margins. Recurring net fee income decreased 3% due to negative market performance, while positive inflows were offset by client’s continued repositioning into lower margin solutions. As a reminder, we bill based on daily balances in the Americas and on month-end balances everywhere else. As such, second quarter revenues did not fully reflect June’s market rally, which we’re seeing benefit the third quarter. Transaction-based income decreased 6%, impacted by investor uncertainty, particularly in Americas and APAC. However, towards the end of the second quarter and into the third quarter, we’re seeing a pickup in both client sentiment and transactional momentum, especially in APAC. Operating expenses ex-litigation, integration-related expenses and FX were up 3%, driven by increases in technology and personnel expenses. Turning to Personal and Corporate Banking on slide 24. We delivered another record quarter, excluding past one-off gains. Profit before tax was up 54% to CHF612 million. Revenues increased 24%, with increases across all revenue lines, highlighting continued momentum in the business. Net interest income increased by 45% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter. Sequentially, we continue to see loan growth, while the deposit base remained roughly stable. Costs were up 9%, driven by continued tech investments and higher personnel expenses. The cost-to-income ratio was 51%, a 7-percentage-point improvement year-on-year, demonstrating strong positive operating leverage. We saw a strong momentum with 10% annualized growth in net new investment products and almost 6,000 net new clients, reflecting the trust our clients continue to place in us. Moving to slide 25. In Asset Management, the profit before tax was $90 million. Excluding last year’s gain on sale, total revenues decreased 5% with lower net management fees driven by market headwinds, asset mix, as well as lower performance fees. These headwinds were partially offset by 1% lower costs. Net new money in the quarter was strong at $17 billion, a 6% annualized growth rate. Net new money excluding money markets and associates was $19.5 billion, with positive momentum in SMAs and alternatives. Turning to slide 26. In the Investment Bank, the profit before tax was $139 million. The operating environment for the Investment Bank’s trading businesses was defined by significant lower equity volatility levels compared to the prior year period. Within Global Markets, this resulted in a meaningful decline in client activity levels across both equities and FRC, where revenues of $1.5 billion were down 11%, broadly consistent with our peer group. Our financing business continued to deliver strong results, reporting its best second quarter and best first half on record. This demonstrates the resilience of our balanced portfolio of risk-efficient businesses as we continue to invest in capabilities that are critical to our clients. Global Banking revenues of $371 million were down 2% as the second quarter saw the global fee pool hit its lowest quarterly level since 2012. In the second quarter, we significantly outperformed the fee pool in EMEA and gained share in global M&A. Operating expenses were up 2%, predominantly on higher tech investments, offsetting lower provisions for litigation, regulatory and similar matters. On slide 27, I now turn to Credit Suisse AG’s full second quarter results, which were separately published earlier today. Credit Suisse AG’s reported pre-tax loss for the second quarter was CHF8.9 billion. This result includes several large items, including $2.2 billion in adjustments to fair value marks, $1.8 billion in software write-downs, $1.3 billion in additional litigation provisions and $1 billion for a goodwill impairment. Stripping out these and other items that are not representative of Credit Suisse AG’s underlying performance in the quarter, the adjusted operating loss was CHF2.1 billion. Not included in this figure are the results of a few legal entities that fall outside of Credit Suisse Ag’s consolidation scope. Including those entities, the Credit Suisse subgroup’s pro forma second quarter adjusted operating loss was CHF2 billion. In discussing the Credit Suisse subgroup performance in the second quarter, I’ll focus on this CHF2 billion adjusted loss as it better informs the starting point for the Group in combination with UBS’ quarterly underlying performance. On slide 28, Credit Suisse’s quarterly adjusted pre-tax loss was largely driven by operating losses in the Credit Suisse Investment Bank and the Capital Release Unit, as well as elevated funding costs in Credit Suisse’s Corporate Center. Sequentially, revenues declined by 38%, driven by Credit Suisse’s Investment Bank down 78%, where the sharp drop in revenues was due to little to no new activity in the context of expected exits following the acquisition. Second quarter revenues also reflected elevated funding costs, primarily from the Swiss National Bank facilities. Going forward, we’ll focus on two key priorities in relation to Credit Suisse’s Investment Bank and Capital Release Unit. First, rebuild activity and profitability levels of the businesses we decided to retain as part of our core Investment Bank. Second, actively manage the wind down of businesses and positions that are not aligned to our strategy. These include those already in the Credit Suisse Capital Release Unit and Investment Bank not retained as core and will be managed and reported within our Non-core and Legacy segment beginning in the third quarter. Moreover, as the wind down is executed, we’ll decisively take out all costs in relation to resources, technology and real estate that are not needed to support either what is retained in our core Investment Bank or what is strictly required to efficiently wind down businesses and positions managed by our Non-core and Legacy team. In contrast to Credit Suisse’s Investment Bank and Capital Release Unit, we saw relative stability across Credit Suisse’s Wealth Management, Swiss Bank and Asset Management segments. In Credit Suisse Wealth Management, we’ve seen a stabilization of net new assets trending from substantial outflows in April to net inflows in June, with $14 billion of net new deposits in the quarter. We remain focused on introducing Credit Suisse’s clients to the unrivaled value proposition of the combined firm to counterbalance any headwinds to our flows from lag effect stemming from past or future attrition of Credit Suisse relationship managers. In addition to clear and decisive actions to retain client assets, we also implemented Client Adviser Incentive programs with a clear objective to win-back and sustainably retain client assets. Quarter-to-date, these actions have helped us to attract net new deposits of $10 billion and positive net new assets in the Credit Suisse Wealth Management franchise. Credit Suisse’s adjusted operating expenses were down 10% sequentially, reflecting actions initiated before and after the merger announcement, as well as voluntary attrition of employees. As of the end of the second quarter, headcount was down by over 8,000 compared to the end of 2022, split roughly equally between internal and external staff. I now turn to slide 29. On an illustrative and underlying basis, the sum of the UBS subgroup pre-tax profit of $2 billion and the Credit Suisse subgroup pre-tax loss of $2.2 billion after translation to U.S. dollars, equals a combined pro forma Group operating loss of around negative $0.3 billion. You can consider this indicative level as a useful starting point to contextualize the trajectory of our underlying profitability going forward and assess the steps we are taking to achieve our ambitions. First and foremost, we’re executing on our cost reduction plans at pace and we expect positive combined underlying profits in the second half of 2023. We expect to deliver underlying exit rate cost savings of over $3 billion by the end of the year, which will benefit our 2024 results and to incur a broadly similar amount of integration-related expenses in 2H 2023. While neutral to our underlying performance, I would note that such integration-related expenses will be partly offset by pull to par effects of over $1.5 billion. Second, asset and deposit retention and win-back initiatives will continue to support the positive momentum across our Wealth Management businesses. In particular, we expect to see positive underlying contribution from the Credit Suisse Wealth Management franchise by the first half of 2024. We will apply the same systematic approach to client and asset retention and win-back across all of our core franchises, especially following today’s announcement in connection with the Swiss businesses. Third, our second quarter 2023 pro forma results include $550 million of funding costs related to the Swiss National Bank facilities that Credit Suisse reported in its Corporate Center. The repayment of these facilities will lead to materially lower funding costs in the third quarter and further benefits in the fourth quarter for the combined Group. Continuing on the NII topic, sequentially for 3Q 2023, we expect a low single-digit percentage decline in our combined Wealth Management businesses with positive contribution from the Credit Suisse franchise and a mid-single-digit percentage decline in our Swiss businesses. This excludes the pull to par effects I mentioned earlier. These elements in combination with disciplined resource management and a focused execution mindset across the leadership team give us confidence in our ability to deliver a successful integration, starting with approaching breakeven in the third quarter and returning to positive underlying profitability before the end of the year. With that, I’ll hand back to Sergio for his closing remarks.